Flávio Bolsonaro, the far-right Brazilian presidential candidate, could pose a risk to the rest of the world regarding the fight against global warming and the protection of the Amazon rainforest.
During an interview with Jornal Nacional, one of the most watched TV news programs in Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro argued that during his government he would deal with global warming expanding "basic sanitation".
During the program, journalist Renata Vasconcellos recalled that, in a 2019 article, Flávio stated that global warming did not exist and described the topic as "apocalyptic rhetoric" intended to halt progress. When asked if he maintained that position in light of scientific evidence, Flávio Bolsonaro said there are "cyclical periods that are hotter" and others "that are colder."
By treating climate change as mere cyclical events — with periods when the planet warms and others when it cools — Flávio Bolsonaro chose to ignore decades of evidence and the consensus established by the global scientific community.
Climate change and the 2026 El Niño are already affecting how people live. They are showing up in public health. They also change how cities work. The natural world is being hit too. This is not just a simple sanitation problem.
Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio’s father, served as president of Brazil (2019-2023) and is currently imprisoned for attempting a coup d'état. His administration was marked by constant attacks on the Amazon rainforest and the institutions dedicated to environmental preservation in Brazil. It is worth recalling a meeting — which later became public —, during Bolsonaro’s term, in which the then-Minister of the Environment, Ricardo Salles, argued that the government should take advantage of the fact that media and public attention was focused on the COVID-19 pandemic to push through sub-legal deregulation reforms, thereby increasing deforestation and timber sales; today, Salles faces criminal charges before the Supreme Federal Court (STF) for allegedly facilitating the smuggling of illegal timber.
2026 forecasts say a new El Niño pattern may grow stronger starting in October, the month of the presidencial election in Brazil. The El Niño could bring worse drought, more flooding, and higher wildfire risk in Brazil. It may also raise public-health problems.
In the Amazon region and the Northeast, rainfall usually drops during the El Niño. That can mean longer dry spells and more fires. In the South, cold fronts may move more slowly. When that happens, heavy rain can hang on for longer than normal.
The impact has been harsh in recent years. In 2023 and 2024, the effects were especially strong. In September 2023, water in an Amazon lake warmed from around 32°C to 40°C. The lake had shrunk during a major drought, and then the heat spiked.
Researchers also reported the deaths of 70 river dolphins in one day. They linked the deaths to the extreme heat.
Southern Brazil had a spell of very heavy rain. In Rio Grande do Sul, September 2023 brought about three times the usual rainfall amount, and it all happened in 19 days. At the same time, the Rio Negro dropped to the lowest level ever seen in Manaus. The gap made it clear that the same broad weather setup can bring dry conditions to one place and big floods to another.
In May 2024, water rose fast in Rio Grande do Sul. The Guaíba River reached 5.37 metres, and that number beat the prior high set in 1941. Eldorado do Sul was left almost fully submerged, and much of Canoas was also flooded. The disaster took 184 lives. It also caused damage worth billions of reais and impacted the lives of 5.5 million people.
Climate change is a danger to the Amazon ecosystem. The forest sends a lot of water back to the air through evaporation. That helps support rain over parts of central and southern Brazil. When trees are cut and fires burn, that cycle can weaken. Then the ground and plants dry out more, and fires can spread more easily.
Smoke from the fires can harm people’s health fast. Tiny particles can get far into the lungs. Kids face the biggest risk. In the height of the 2024 fire season 3.7 million health appointments were tied to drought and smoke in just one month. Later, the smoke moved into southeastern Brazil. In São Paulo, air quality readings were among the worst seen around the world for days in a row.
Furhermore, Brazil’s danger is not only from climate pressures. The country has early warning systems and disaster prevention rules. But money has often gone to rebuilding after damage is done. It rarely covers prevention early. Before the Rio Grande do Sul floods, CEMADEN, the National Centre for Monitoring and Alerting of Natural Disasters, reportedly sent out many warnings. Still, only a small part of the disaster prevention budget was used before the floods reached nearby communities.
To make matters worse, the next El Niño may rank among the strongest since routine records started in the 1950s. It claims that how bad things get will not be set by Pacific Ocean heat alone. It also hinges on how ready Brazil is. That includes protecting forests, setting up plans to evacuate early, and putting money into prevention.
Public policies in which Jair Bolsonaro — and now Flávio Bolsonaro — simply do not believe and do not invest. On the contrary, if Flávio Bolsonaro comes to power, all indications are that he will weaken and defund these policies and the public agencies that implement them.
Brazil has already seen what can happen when leaders deny reality during a crisis, as was the case with Jair Bolsonaro. During the COVID-19 pandemic, this type of leadership led to more than 700,000 deaths. Now, the country could be hit by the worst El Niño on record. This threat emerges at a time when the Brazilian government could once again be led by someone who does not accept that the planet is warming. Flávio Bolsonaro treats the issue as if it were merely a matter of basic sanitation.
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