Brazil's Productivity Puzzle: It's About Value, Not Effort

The common belief that Brazilian workers display "low productivity" actually shows incorrect judgment of their work efficiency. Brazilian workers typically work longer hours than workers in wealthier countries but productivity statistics measure their output according to actual produced value instead of their work dedication. International comparisons show Brazil maintains lower productivity levels because its economy focuses on commodities and basic products which deliver lower market worth.

The "Belgian Beer Paradox" which economist Paulo Gala explained demonstrates how this distortion works. Belgian brewery workers, for example, seem to work with greater efficiency than Brazilian workers because they produce beer products which businesses sell at higher prices through premium brand marketing. 

Belgian beer, often sold as a premium product with strong branding, reputation, and differentiation, commands a much higher price than its Brazilian counterpart. Consequently, the 'added value' generated by a Belgian brewery worker is significantly higher. The productivity indicator, in this instance, captures price and product complexity, not merely technical efficiency or physical output.

In short, it is much more expensive to produce beer in Belgium, where wages are much higher than in Brazil, which, in turn, leads producers to mechanize their production as much as possible.

The chemical industry experiences similar effects because advanced economies manufacture specialized pharmaceuticals and high-tech chemicals which create higher market value products. This situation reflects the production of highly specialized, patented pharmaceuticals and fine chemicals with immense technological content and market pricing power in advanced economies. Brazil, in contrast, often focuses on basic, intermediate, and petrochemical derivatives with lower added value.

Wage structures together with automation systems and capital expenses form another essential structural component. High-income economies face a labor situation where companies need to spend money on automation because they must pay high wages which leads to increased worker productivity and advanced technology development. The Brazilian economy depends on low-value production because its current wage levels and high capital costs create reduced automation incentives.

Economists like Paulo Gala and João Saboia state that the real challenge facing Brazil emerges from its need to develop higher levels of productivity instead of focusing on employee work performance. The country needs to establish technological improvements together with industrial development programs which will help it achieve higher productivity results for its global value chain operations.

The current debate relates to Brazilian minimum wage discussions which will reach their 90th anniversary since the 1930s establishment of the wage law. The minimum wage system according to economist João Saboia remains suitable for Brazil because it aligns with the country's productivity level yet Brazil faces fundamental structural challenges which include stagnant productivity levels and reduced investment activities and elevated interest rates and an aging population.

The country needs to achieve two goals for its long-term economic growth which include increasing productivity through technological progress and expanding high-value production and advancing solutions for income distribution problems through social policy measures. The Brazilian minimum wage is not the problem; compared to other countries, it is low.

In addition to this fact, the Centro de Estudos Sindicais e de Economia do Trabalho (Cesit) published a study which shows that Brazil will create millions of new jobs through increased productivity after decreasing the legal workweek from 44 hours to 36 hours.

The Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp) research center produced a document which shows that the research predicts the policy will lead to 4 to 5 million new jobs while increasing productivity by approximately 4 percent. The study aims to inform the ongoing debate in Brazil over working hours and labor reforms.

The economist Marilane Teixeira states that industries which operate with high employee requirements need to create new work schedules while bringing on new workers to support reduced employee work times.

Teixeira explained that businesses need to bring on additional staff because their operations continue throughout the week.

The study shows that people in Brazil work more hours than people in other countries. Researchers found that around 21 million workers exceed the 44-hour weekly limit established by Brazil’s Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho. The study found that 4.5 million people suffer from underemployment because they work fewer hours than they want to work.

Worker health is another key factor in the debate. The study found that 500.000 workers took leave in 2024 because they suffered from psychosocial illnesses which developed due to their workplace conditions. The study shows that workplace conditions have caused burnout and work-related stress to become major problems for employees.

The proposal to shorten working hours is currently under discussion in Brazil’s Congress and it might receive a vote before the end of this year. Researchers argue that the country is well positioned to implement the reform because the last working hour reduction took place in the 1980s during a more severe economic downturn which did not increase unemployment.

The dossier contains 37 academic articles that study how a shorter workweek will affect productivity and labor markets and various social groups which include women, young and black workers.

Edge and Orizon Open Brazil’s Largest Biomethane Facility to Supply Industry and Transport

The biomethane plant, which Edge and Orizon opened last Saturday, serves as the company's largest facility and helps Brazil reach its energy transition goals while producing sustainable fuel. The facility, which operates in Paulínia, São Paulo state, located in southeastern Brazil, achieves a daily output of 225,000 cubic meters (m³/day), which supports the fuel needs of more than 1,000 urban buses.

The OneBio plant operates within an Ecopark that Edge (51%) and Orizon Valorização de Resíduos (49%) established as a joint project. The plant generates biomethane through its biogas treatment process, which extracts gas from urban solid waste streams. The plant operates its gas distribution system through existing pipeline connections while Edge manages its sales operations. Unilever has established a biomethane provision contract with Edge to support decarbonization efforts at its soap production facility located in Valinhos, São Paulo.

São Paulo leads Brazil in biomethane production, accounting for approximately half of the national capacity with nine operational units. The state currently has a production capacity of around 700,000 m³/day and expects to exceed 800,000 m³/day by December 2026, with a potential of 6.4 million m³/day.

The state expansion of natural gas and biomethane vehicle adoption proceeds through three policies which include environmental licensing simplification, natural gas and biomethane vehicle tax exemptions, and the "Conecta Biometano SP" platform. A 2025 regulation by ARSESP facilitates plant interconnection to the gas network, with costs covered by suppliers, aligning with the State Climate Change Policy (PEMC) and State Energy Plan (PEE 2050).

Biomethane functions as an industrial material which substitutes natural gas for two purposes. The FIESP study indicates that over 80% of São Paulo's biomethane potential lies in the sugar-energy sector which processes vinasse and filter cake and bagasse and straw.

Grupo Marquise in Ceará plans to spend R$100 million which equals $20 million USD for a new project that will create biomethane through solid waste processing at their Aquiraz landfill site. The GNR Fortaleza plant in Caucaia operates as the biggest facility of its type in North and Northeast regions because it produces 110000 m³ of output daily through its collaboration between Marquise Ambiental and Ecometano.

Cummins Brasil has begun field testing its B6.7N Otto cycle engine which represents the company's first medium engine designed for urban use that operates on natural gas and biomethane. This initiative supports Cummins' global "Destination Zero" strategy and provides an urban transport solution which operates more quietly and efficiently while meeting Euro VI and Proconve P8 standards through its dedicated system for continuous performance improvement.

From Landfills to Legislation: The Expansion of Brazil’s Biomethane Market

Brazil’s biomethane industry is gaining momentum as pioneering production projects converge with a new regulatory framework designed to expand the market and attract investment.

One of the sector’s landmark initiatives is located at the Dois Arcos sanitary landfill in São Pedro da Aldeia, Rio de Janeiro state. Operational since 2014, the facility became the first landfill in Brazil authorized to commercialize biomethane, receiving regulatory approval in 2017 from ANP, the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels. Initially designed to produce around 16,000 cubic meters of biomethane per day, the plant has increased capacity to 18,480 m³/day through operational efficiency gains.

The landfill receives roughly 900 tons of municipal waste per day from eight municipalities, generating biogas through the anaerobic decomposition of organic material. The gas is captured through a network of more than 300 wells, about half of which remain active. Technicians continuously monitor methane concentrations and pressure levels to maximize gas recovery.

A key innovation at the site is its hybrid system, which allows biogas to be directed either to biomethane upgrading or to electricity generation. Higher-quality methane streams are routed to the biomethane plant, while lower-grade gas is used to produce power.

Beyond production, Brazil is also developing a regulatory ecosystem to support the biomethane market. Certification company, the Instituto Totum, founded in 2004, operates as a third-party agent providing verification, validation and certification services in various sectors, including biomethane.

A major regulatory milestone is the Fuel of the Future Law, whose discussions began in 2024 and which aims to expand biomethane use through the creation of the Biomethane Origin Guarantee Certificate (CGOB). The certificate separates the physical biomethane molecule from its environmental attribute, allowing producers to sell the fuel locally while trading the environmental credit independently. This mechanism is seen as particularly important in Brazil, where transporting biomethane over long distances can be logistically challenging.

The CGOB differs from the existing Gasc certification program, which primarily serves the voluntary market for biogas and biomethane. While Gasc uses a simpler purchasing process and measures gas in calorific value (millions of BTUs), CGOB focuses on biomethane that meets national fuel standards and measures volumes in cubic meters. The new system also requires buyers to participate directly in the registration and retirement of certificates, reflecting its more regulated structure.

Industry participants expect the new framework to stimulate investment and encourage biomethane production across the country. As the market expands, certification firms such as Toton are preparing to operate within the new system, ensuring transparency and preventing double counting between certification schemes while offering producers greater flexibility in how they commercialize their biomethane and associated environmental attributes.

The biomethane sector in Brazil is now poised for significant growth, driven by new policies aimed at increasing the share of renewable natural gas in the energy matrix. 

Although biomethane has been blended in places like Ceará into the gas network since 2018, the current production from 11 plants (840,000 m³/day) is minimal compared to Brazil's natural gas demand, which is 61 million m³/day. 

The main consumers include thermoelectric power plants, industrial users, and residential networks. The sector is expected to experience significant growth after 2026, when the Future Fuel Act will require gas distributors to blend biomethane with natural gas, starting at 1% this year and reaching 10% by 2035, with the goal of reducing fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

Thus, under Brazil’s new regulatory framework, demand for biomethane is expected to rise sharply. Petrobras alone may require around 700,000 cubic meters of biomethane per day to comfortably meet its mandated blending quota, an amount that is nearly equal to the country’s current total biomethane production capacity.

Other distributors are also increasing their use of the renewable gas. São Paulo-based distributor Comgás already injects about 71,000 cubic meters of biomethane per day into its network, primarily supplied by a project in the city of Piracicaba. The company is now pursuing additional supply agreements as it prepares to expand biomethane use under the new regulations.

Brazil Emerges as Global Hub for Renewable Hydrogen as Investment Surges

Brazil is becoming a global force in the renewable hydrogen sector. In 2026, the country will receive investments of more than R$100 billion ($20 billion). The South American nation is trying to use its unique energy resources to become one of the leading global producers of hydrogen with low carbon emissions, which supports the worldwide energy transition that is currently taking place. 

Industry analysts and recent reports from BN Americas and Eixos indicate that 2026 will be a "watershed year" for the sector. Projects currently advance from their initial study phase together with existing memorandums of understanding to reach Final Investment Decisions (FID), which represent the point when projects begin to receive funding and construction work starts.

A Strategic Shift in Energy Production

Hydrogen produced from renewable sources through biomass, biogas, solar and wind power systems provides a sustainable hydrogen solution which produces almost no carbon emissions when compared to conventional hydrogen production methods that extract hydrogen from natural gas or coal. Brazil has an advantage because its electricity grid generates more than 90 percent of its power from renewable sources during peak usage times.

According to most experts in the field, the era of renewable hydrogen has reached its operational phase. This new phase creates also new possibilities for development. The industry is targeting multiple markets which include green ammonia production for fertilizers and methanol manufacturing for the chemical sector and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production.

Domestic Demand vs. Export Ambitions

Most of the world continues to concentrate on sending hydrogen to Europe because Germany will see a 30% increase in hydrogen demand by 2030. The country currently depends on foreign sources for all its methanol needs and 85% of its nitrogen-based fertilizer requirements.

Brazil seeks to establish a domestic hydrogen market to decrease its need for foreign products while achieving carbon reductions in its large-scale agricultural and manufacturing operations. This industry will develop rapidly because investors plan to invest more than R$100 billion until 2026. The country will produce 800,000 tons of low-carbon hydrogen annually by 2030 which will establish it as one of the world’s leading hydrogen producers. 

Furthermore, the European Union serves as a primary export market because Germany and the Netherlands have rising demand for renewable energy sources. The projects in Ceará will create about 42,000 jobs which shows how the industry creates major economic benefits for society — the port of Pecém in Ceará is positioning itself as a crucial point for this development. 

Moreover, the production cost of hydrogen in Brazil will become more affordable because its production cost will decrease to between $1.25 and $1.50 per kilogram between 2030 and 2040. This development will make Brazil more appealing to international buyers in the hydrogen industry.

Regional Hubs and Technological Innovation

The state of Ceará has emerged as a frontrunner because the Port of Pecém has received more than $30 billion in declared investments. However, the country is experiencing widespread innovation. The state sanitation company Sanepar in Paraná is investigating how to convert biogas from sewage treatment plants into hydrogen, which experts believe can be implemented throughout the country.

The field of technological development now includes various methods that go beyond electrolysis. Brazil has abundant ethanol resources together with residual biomass, from which only 5% of its total capacity serves as feedstock for biogas production. This situation enables the country to develop alternative methods for hydrogen extraction and production of urea and methanol.

Overcoming Barriers

However, the existing problems remain despite people maintaining their positive attitude. The process of exporting hydrogen to Europe needs strict carbon intensity certification requirements. The European Union will impose regulatory restrictions on "green" hydrogen transportation when it depends on fossil fuel transportation methods.

The industry currently faces a dual problem: it receives investment funding yet lacks skilled workers and companies capable of building large industrial facilities. The industrial sector will need to hire more technical staff because it transitions from conducting pilot tests to operating full-scale industrial facilities.

Even so, it is possible to state that the economic basis for the "Brazilian Hydrogen Rush" remains strong because production expenses in Brazil will be much lower than European rates, which will reach $1.25 per kg while current European prices exceed €8 per kg.

Brazil Braces for Geopolitical Fallout as U.S.-Iran War Escalate

Brazil's economy is facing upcoming challenges because rising geopolitical conflicts between the United States and Iran create disruptions in international financial markets. The South American country maintains strong macroeconomic fundamentals but experts predict its currency and stock market and inflation rates will experience immediate market fluctuations.

The United States and Israel have conducted new military operations against Iran which have increased fears about both regional security and the world's energy supply. The current conflict which began with political disputes from the past has its origins in two historical events: the 1953 coup that United States and British intelligence organizations supported and the 2018 United States exit from the Iran nuclear agreement. The current situation presents major consequences for both the Belt and Road Initiative and China's energy security interests.

Market Impact on Brazil

Brazil has been exporting more oil than it imports since 2019 because it maintains a trade surplus and keeps large amounts of foreign currency reserves. The global markets reacted to the news by entering risk-off mode which caused unpredictable price movements in all types of financial assets.

Gabriel Uarian, a CNPI analyst at Cultura Capital, projects the U.S. dollar could trade between R$5.25 and R$5.40 against the Brazilian real, up from R$5.15 at Friday's close. The situation shows that both global dollar strength and capital outflows from emerging markets affect market conditions. Brazil's central bank will use swaps and reserve sales to control exchange rate movements which exceed R$5.40, but major market changes are not expected to occur during the first trading day.

In the next few days, the stocks of Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4), PRIO (PRIO3), PetroReconcavo (RECV3), and Vibra (VBBR3) could experience higher price fluctuations. The higher oil prices provide advantages to producers, but the overall market risk will reduce short-term stock prices.

The banking and retail and construction sectors together with businesses that depend on imported goods, such as paper and chemical manufacturers, will experience economic difficulties. Defense contractors and companies that export agricultural commodities will maintain their market strength.

Inflationary Pressures and Monetary Policy

Brent crude prices that remain above US$85 per barrel will result in increased fuel expenses for Brazil within 15 to 30 days which will create additional inflationary pressures. Helcio Takeda, who serves as research director at Pezco, reports that fuel price changes together with unexpected inflation results will prevent medium-term inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 from declining. High oil prices that remain above normal levels will create challenges for achieving Selic benchmark interest rate reductions.

Brazil's trade balance will benefit from increased oil prices. Petrobras will experience a 15% to 25% net income increase from a US$10 rise in Brent crude prices which will strengthen its fiscal and external accounts for the next several years.

Fernando Siqueira, head of research at Eleven Financial, expects Brazil's overall effects from this situation to be harmful yet restricted. The rising oil prices will create partial advantages for energy stocks through their support of Petrobras while global risk aversion will create downward pressure on equities and the Brazilian real.

Fragile Global Balance

The world continues to face major geopolitical threats which create substantial danger. The international energy markets will experience disruption through extended warfare which will also negatively impact developing nations. Although the possibility of a worldwide conflict seems unlikely to happen at present, people must consider the potential dangers that arise from misjudgments.

Brazilian economic conditions currently show both unstable elements and stable fundamental components. The country relies on its strong oil exports and trade surplus revenues to create financial protection, yet currency exchange rate changes and rising inflation and changes in investor behavior will decide how long this protection lasts. The markets will track how Middle Eastern situations change together with worldwide power distribution changes and their subsequent economic impacts. 

Hyundai Eyes Green Hydrogen Production in Brazil’s Bahia State

South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co. plans to dispatch representatives to Brazil's Bahia state between March and April to scout potential locations for green hydrogen production, Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues announced on Friday, signaling Bahia's ambition to become a hub for clean fuel like Ceará.

Rodrigues stated the initiative aims to position Bahia as a key player in green hydrogen revolution in Brazil, a critical solution for global decarbonization. The governor's international test drive of a hydrogen-powered vehicle established a new level of interest from local stakeholders because they wanted to learn more about the technology.

"I met with Hyundai, and what we need to do is produce the fuel. Hyundai already has a partnership with Senai Cimatec, and the state government is closely monitoring the initiative," Rodrigues said during a press conference in Camaçari, part of the Salvador metropolitan region.

The visit will assess industrial areas in Camaçari and Feira de Santana as sites for prospective investments which will include upcoming manufacturing facilities. Rodrigues expressed optimism that Hyundai could emulate Chinese automaker BYD, which has invested in electric vehicle production in the state.

Rodrigues stated that green hydrogen production should proceed faster so that it can become available in the region. Initial discussions about the project started when Rodrigues visited India and South Korea with president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Automakers Advance Hydrogen Plans in Brazil

The Brazilian automotive industry now considers hydrogen because both carmakers and government officials search for methods to reduce carbon emissions from electric vehicle transportation and especially from heavy-duty trucks. Hyundai has spent almost thirty years developing hydrogen technology through its production of more than 38000 Nexo fuel cell passenger vehicles which it sells together with its hydrogen-powered trucks and buses that operate in various countries.

The Chinese automotive manufacturer GWM has started testing its 39-ton hydrogen-powered truck in Brazil after introducing over 2000 of these vehicles to the Chinese market. 

The two companies' executives stressed that partnerships serve as essential elements for expanding hydrogen operations throughout Brazil. GWM has established cooperative relationships with the São Paulo state government while working together with USP and IPT and Senai Cimatec research organizations.

Ethanol Seen as Strategic Advantage

Brazil's extensive ethanol infrastructure provides a competitive advantage for hydrogen production. Hyundai collaborates with the University of São Paulo (USP) Toyota and Senai on a groundbreaking initiative to create hydrogen through ethanol using high-temperature reforming technology.

The current method will produce hydrogen fuel at existing fueling stations by using Brazil's ethanol distribution system which will help heavy transport vehicles to adopt hydrogen fuel.

Challenges Remain Despite Policy Support

Despite growing interest, hydrogen adoption faces significant hurdles, including high vehicle and fuel costs, limited refueling infrastructure, and competition from other low-carbon fuels like biofuels.

However, recent policy initiatives and regulatory frameworks introduced in 2024, alongside research and pilot programs, are fostering momentum. Industry players plan to showcase hydrogen technologies at the COP30 climate summit.

"We believe hydrogen is the fuel of the future," stated Hyundai executive Fernando Yamaguchi, reflecting cautious optimism regarding the technology's long-term potential in Brazil and worldwide.

Raízen (RAIZ4) Financial Crisis: Brazil's Sugar Giant Faces Uncertain Future

Raízen, the world's largest sugar producer and a joint venture between Shell and Brazilian industrial group Cosan, has, according to CNN Brasil, reported a quarterly net loss of R$15.6 billion (approximately $3.1 billion USD) and warned of "significant uncertainty" regarding its ability to continue operations.

The company, which also operates a vast network of fuel distribution, is grappling with R$55.3 billion in net debt and a leverage ratio of 5.3 times its EBITDA, according to its latest financial statements through December.

Sources close to the matter indicate that BTG Pactual, a fund manager that became part of Cosan's controlling shareholder group last year, proposed a strategic split of Raízen. The proposal suggests separating the fuel distribution business from other assets, allowing the fuel station unit to secure new capital from the bank.

However, this idea has met resistance from creditors who prefer to maintain the company's integrity to ensure a swift recovery. Creditors are reportedly pressuring shareholders to inject substantial new capital into Raízen.

Raízen, Cosan, BTG Pactual, and Shell have all declined to comment on the ongoing situation. Shell, however, reiterated its commitment to working with Raízen and Cosan to support the company's deleveraging efforts.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva recently convened a meeting with senior executives and government officials to address the financial crisis facing Raízen.

The meeting in Brasília included Raízen’s main shareholders, Cosan and Shell, as well as a senior executive from BTG Pactual. Government representatives reportedly present included Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and BNDES President Aloizio Mercadante. The discussions took place shortly before Carnival and Lula’s trip to Asia.

Days later, Raízen formally requested financial support from its major shareholders after another weak quarterly performance, intensifying negotiations to address its debt and liquidity challenges. Most parties declined to comment, while Petrobras President Magda Chambriard said she did not attend any meeting on the matter.

Raízen financial turmoil has sent ripples through the agribusiness sector, particularly among sugarcane suppliers. With the 2026/27 sugarcane harvest weeks away, independent producers supplying the company are closely monitoring the situation, expressing heightened caution about renewing contracts. Historically, these renewals were almost automatic, but now producers are considering alternatives, including spot market sales with immediate payment, to mitigate risks.

Raízen's decision to directly assume payment obligations to sugarcane growers, moving away from a bank-intermediated discounted risk model, has further amplified concerns among suppliers. While payments are currently up to date, the change increases suppliers' exposure should Raízen's financial health deteriorate.

The crisis at Raízen underscores broader anxieties within Brazil's corporate debt market, especially given the prevailing high interest rates, currently at 15%. Analysts note that even large corporations with strong banking relationships are struggling to manage debt servicing costs, with Raízen alone facing R$7 billion in annual interest payments. The potential for Raízen to seek judicial recovery could trigger a significant cascading negative effect on the Brazilian economy due to its sheer size and interconnectedness, potentially becoming one of the largest such cases in the country's history.

Market observers have noted a recent surge in sellers and a scarcity of buyers for Raízen and Cosan bonds in the secondary market, reflecting a widespread lack of confidence in the company's ability to recover. Despite ongoing negotiations with entities like BNDES and the involvement of its major shareholders, Raízen faces the daunting task of raising an estimated R$20 billion to stabilize its financial position by 2026.

The situation highlights the vulnerability of even essential sectors like fuel distribution and agribusiness to high interest rates, impacting investment, hiring, and overall economic expansion, despite recent positive inflation readings.

Brazil's Real Surges to 5.12 Against Dollar on US Weakness, Local Hopes

Brazil's real strengthened for the fifth consecutive session on Wednesday (25/02), closing at 5.12 to the U.S. dollar, as investors weigh a weakening American currency against the backdrop of Brazil's high interest rates and prospects for future fiscal reforms.

The sustained appreciation of the real comes amid a broader depreciation of the dollar, which has been under pressure due to what some analysts describe as erratic U.S. economic policy and institutional instability.

Sérgio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados, told reporters of CNN Brasil Money that external factors are a primary driver for the real's recent strength. "We've been seeing this movement since last year because of developments in the United States," Vale said. He cited the U.S. fiscal scenario, tariff policies, and "consistent attacks" on the U.S. Federal Reserve as factors that have "helped devalue the American currency."

As a consequence, emerging market currencies, including the real, have benefited. Brazil's high interest rates have also made the country an attractive destination for short-term capital inflows.

Domestically, while Brazil continues to grapple with a "very complicated fiscal scenario," there is a market expectation that necessary adjustments will be made following the upcoming presidential election. "There is this expectation, this tendency that whoever becomes president next year will have to make some fiscal adjustment," Vale noted.

He contrasted this with the political landscape in the United States, where he sees a "near impossibility at this moment of bringing the Democratic and Republican parties together to make this fiscal adjustment happen."

Brazil's strong commodity sectors, including agriculture, mining, and oil, along with recent structural reforms in pensions and labor, also contribute to attracting foreign capital. However, Vale cautioned that the appreciating real poses a risk to the competitiveness of Brazilian exporters.

The agricultural sector, in particular, faces a challenging year. "The revenue for agribusiness this year tends to fall a bit compared to last year because of this worsening scenario we're seeing now, a slightly smaller harvest, a lower exchange rate, stable prices," Vale explained. "This configuration is not positive for a sector that is also suffering from cost pressures."

Looking ahead, Vale believes the trend of appreciation for the real is likely to continue in the short term. He suggests that a BRL/USD exchange rate of 4.00 is a possibility in the medium term, potentially by 2027, contingent on a strong fiscal adjustment plan being implemented. However, he ruled out such a level for the current year, anticipating volatility from elections in both Brazil and the United States.

Brazil's Green Leap: Volare Launches Biomethane & Natural Gas Microbus for Sustainable Public Transport

The launch of the Volare Fly 10 GV microbus which operates on compressed natural gas and biomethane establishes a new sustainable mobility system in Brazil according to public transport specialists. The vehicle which Marcopolo S.A. (POMO3, POMO4), a Brazilian bus, coach and rail manufacturer produces at its São Cristóvão facility in Caxias do Sul, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, represents multiple years of financial support for Brazilian engineering while providing an environmentally friendly option to replace diesel buses that still meet operational demands and flexible usage needs.

The microbus operates with an FPT Industrial N60 CNG engine which belongs to the Iveco Group and produces 200 horsepower together with 750 Nm of torque. The engine serves as a dedicated gas engine because it was not converted from diesel while delivering quieter operation and less need for maintenance and extending oil change intervals beyond standard diesel engine specifications.

The Volare Fly 10 GV can operate between 250 and 400 kilometers because its range depends on how people use it and the quality of the gas. The gas storage system of the vehicle has a capacity of 490 liters which it distributes across its four cylinders to provide enough operating time for urban and school and charter transport services. The vehicle has a gross vehicle weight of 10,700 kg and can carry up to 24 passengers in urban configurations or up to 54 students in school transport versions.

The microbus offers its main benefit because it uses biomethane as a sustainable fuel which comes from purified biogas that originates from the breakdown of organic material that includes agricultural waste and sewage and landfill waste. Biomethane power systems achieve substantial emission reductions because they produce 96 percent less particulate matter and 84 percent fewer greenhouse gases than diesel systems.

The vehicle features refueling speeds which match diesel bus refueling speeds and it contains certified high-pressure cylinders which have a 20-year operational lifespan because they adhere to strict safety requirements.

Volare, part of the Marcopolo Group and a leader in Brazil’s microbus segment for over 27 years, developed the Fly 10 GV after four years of testing and refinement. The company advocates this model as a bridging technology which connects traditional diesel buses with complete electric bus systems because it enables organizations to decrease emissions immediately without needing to construct new infrastructure.

The launch comes as Brazil expands its biomethane production capacity and seeks to integrate renewable fuels into its transportation sector. The Volare Fly 10 GV enables operators to use CNG and biomethane interchangeably which results in operational flexibility and lower carbon emissions and decreased fuel expenses and enhanced air quality.

The executives from the industry stated that their tested model has obtained positive results across different regions which included areas that have existing natural gas systems. The Brazilian microbus will operate urban transit systems and school transport programs while it will also serve charter fleets to support the country's development of renewable fuel-based transportation solutions.

The introduction of the Volare Fly 10 GV signals Brazil's increasing commitment to developing sustainable transportation solutions through the use of biomethane as a core element of its energy transition process.

Brazil Researchers Develop Low-Cost Catalyst to Boost Ethanol-to-Hydrogen Production

Researchers in Brazil have developed an advanced catalyst that significantly improves the efficiency and stability of ethanol-to-hydrogen conversion, offering a potential pathway to lower-cost, low-carbon hydrogen production, according to Agência Fapesp.

The study, led by Fabio Coral Fonseca of the Institute for Energy and Nuclear Research (Ipen) and published in the International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, demonstrates that fine control over the processing of perovskite-type ceramic materials can enhance hydrogen yields while eliminating the need for expensive noble metals.

Hydrogen is widely viewed as a key component of the global energy transition, particularly when produced from renewable sources. In Brazil, abundant ethanol derived from biomass presents a strategic opportunity for hydrogen generation through ethanol steam reforming (ESR), a high-temperature process in which ethanol reacts with steam to produce hydrogen and carbon dioxide.

The research focuses on improving catalysts used in ESR. Instead of applying nickel to the surface of ceramic materials through conventional impregnation methods, the team incorporated nickel directly into the perovskite crystal structure during synthesis. Under controlled conditions, the metal “exsolves,” forming highly stable nickel nanoparticles firmly anchored to the surface.

This approach enhances catalytic stability, reduces carbon deposition and prevents particle agglomeration at high temperatures, common issues that degrade conventional catalysts.

A key finding of the study is that calcination temperature plays a decisive role in performance. Catalysts calcined at 650°C delivered the best results, achieving 100% ethanol conversion, producing more than four moles of hydrogen per mole of ethanol, and maintaining stable operation for up to 85 hours with minimal coke formation. Higher calcination temperatures reduced surface area, limited nickel exsolution and weakened performance.

Fonseca emphasized that manufacturing conditions are as important as material composition. “A relatively simple adjustment in processing completely changes performance,” he noted.

Beyond ethanol reforming, the team is also exploring direct ethanol fuel cells as an alternative route for energy conversion. Their broader research into metallic exsolution in perovskites includes prior collaboration with U.S. institutions supported by the São Paulo Research Foundation and the National Science Foundation.

The scientists are now advancing toward highly controlled epitaxial thin films to study catalytic behavior at the atomic scale, using advanced characterization tools at Sirius, Brazil’s synchrotron light source.

By demonstrating that abundant, low-cost metals such as nickel can achieve high catalytic performance when properly engineered, the research outlines a promising route to reduce reliance on noble metals and strengthen sustainable hydrogen production, particularly in Brazil, where ethanol infrastructure is already well established.

StoneX Raises Brazil Diesel B Demand Forecast for 2026 on Stronger Soy Harvest, Higher Imports Seen

The updated projections from StoneX show that Brazil will increase its Diesel B consumption by 2% in 2026 compared to the previous year. The consultancy revised its earlier estimate of 70.4 million cubic meters upwards because its improved agricultural forecasts showed better results for soybean production which would increase freight volumes throughout the nation. The larger soybean crop will result in increased truck traffic and fuel consumption throughout Brazil especially in the South where both soybean and corn harvests are experiencing recovery and in the Southeast which benefits from strong agricultural and industrial and extractive exports.

Diesel B — the blend of fossil diesel and biodiesel made from vegetable oils or animal fats sold at fuel stations nationwide — sales in 2025 reached 69.4 million cubic meters according to Agência Nacional do Petróleo Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP) which showed a 3% sales increase from 2024. The biodiesel market showed a consumption increase of 7.4% which reached 9.7 million cubic meters for the year 2020. 

The 2026 demand projection for pure fossil diesel which people call Diesel A shows StoneX expects 60.4 million cubic meters of demand which represents a 1% increase from 2025. The 2026 domestic supply forecast expects that imports will provide 29% to 29.3% of domestic supply despite a small production increase. 

The consultancy outlined two scenarios for 2026: maintaining the current B15 biodiesel blend throughout the year or raising the mix to B16 from July. The base case of B15 will lead to Diesel A demand which reaches 60.4 million cubic meters. The adoption of B16 during the second half of the year will decrease Diesel A demand to 59.9 million cubic meters with imports reaching approximately 17.3 million cubic meters.

Therefore, biodiesel consumption is forecast to hit another record in Brazil. The B15 blend will create a demand which exceeds 10.4 million cubic meters through an increase of 7.1 percent. The introduction of B16 will lead to a consumption rise which exceeds 10.7 million cubic meters from its current level, thus increasing pressure on domestic soybean oil supplies. The National Energy Policy Council will establish the schedule for biodiesel blend changes.

The analysts from the industry observation say that biodiesel serves an essential function for carbon emission reduction, but its operational effectiveness decreases when users try to increase their blend amounts. The hygroscopic nature of biodiesel means that it absorbs moisture, which results in water accumulation and sediment formation inside fuel tanks after extended storage, thus creating potential engine performance issues.

Experts recommend specialized diesel additives and proper fuel management practices, which include avoiding long-term storage in full tanks, to reduce risks as Brazil develops its biofuel strategy.