Inside Brazil’s Fastest-Growing Ethanol Market: Mato Grosso’s Billion-Liter Leap

Brazil's Mato Grosso state is poised for a significant surge in ethanol production, with projections indicating a 16% increase to 8.44 billion liters in the 2026/27 harvest. This expansion is primarily driven by the growth of corn ethanol and the establishment of new industrial plants within the state, according to a forecast by the Mato Grosso Bioenergy Industry Union (Bioind-MT) and the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).

The anticipated growth follows a robust 2025/26 season, which saw the state's ethanol output rise by 8.52% to 7.27 billion liters, while national production remained largely stable with a modest 0.22% increase. Mato Grosso currently holds the second position in Brazil's ethanol production ranking, trailing only São Paulo.

Corn ethanol is expected to be the main catalyst for the 2026/27 expansion, with production from the cereal projected to climb by 18.67% to 7.33 billion liters. Sugarcane ethanol, by contrast, is set for a more moderate increase of 1.42%, reaching 1.11 billion liters. Silvio Rangel, president of Bioind-MT and the Federation of Industries of Mato Grosso (Fiemt), highlighted the state's dominance in corn ethanol, noting that Mato Grosso accounts for 62% of national cereal ethanol production.

Wellington Andrade, executive director of Bioind-MT, attributed this growth to both the expanded capacity of existing facilities and the inauguration of new industrial units. He cited approved financing for ALD Bioenergia and RRP Energia, Inpasa's plant expansion, and new projects from 3tentos and Evermat as key drivers.

The Imea survey also forecasts an 18.52% increase in corn milling for ethanol production, rising from 13.81 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 16.36 million tonnes in 2026/27. By-products of corn ethanol are also expected to see double-digit growth, with DDG and DDGS production increasing by 16.14% to 3.41 million tonnes, and corn oil by 12.9% to 338,900 tonnes. In the sugarcane sector, milling is projected to remain stable at 18.61 million tonnes, while sugar production is expected to decline by 1.42% to 579,700 tonnes.

Long-term projections from Imea suggest continued bioenergy expansion in Mato Grosso, with the state potentially reaching 15.02 billion liters of ethanol production by the 2033/34 harvest, more than double the 2025/26 estimate.

In related developments, Bosch is piloting a technology that combines diesel and ethanol in sugarcane harvester engines. This retrofit system aims to replace up to 60% of fossil fuel use without compromising engine power. The solution, initially developed for large mining trucks, is currently being tested in six sugarcane mills across Brazil. Matheus Pintor, commercial head of Bosch's dual-fuel division, emphasized the economic rationale behind the retrofit, stating that it accelerates decarbonization by utilizing existing machinery rather than waiting for fleet replacement, which can take years.

Meanwhile, Atvos, a Brazilian clean energy company, is advancing its second corn ethanol project in Mato Grosso do Sul. The company has committed to paying R$3.284 million in environmental compensation for a new industrial unit in Costa Rica, with an estimated investment of R$669 million and a production capacity of 150 million to 800 million liters. This new unit will be integrated into Atvos' existing sugarcane ethanol plant in the municipality. The company also announced a similar project near the Santa Luzia plant in Nova Alvorada do Sul, with an investment exceeding R$1 billion, aiming to integrate sugarcane and corn operations and use sugarcane bagasse for energy generation.

Mato Grosso do Sul's corn ethanol industrial park currently operates with three units (two from Inpasa and one from Neomille) and is set for further expansion. Planned projects include an expansion of Inpasa's Sidrolândia plant by 300 million liters and a new plant in Jaraguari with an estimated capacity of 200 million liters per year. The state, a national leader in DDG production, saw approximately 1.40 million tonnes produced last year, with 1.15 million tonnes exported to countries like New Zealand, Turkey, Vietnam, and Spain.

Singapore’s GIC Expands Brazil Infrastructure Footprint via Telecom and Energy Deals

Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC, through its investment vehicle Warrington Investment, has secured regulatory approval for a minority stake in IHS Holding’s Latin American telecom infrastructure, while deepening its partnership with Brazilian energy giant Neoenergia.

The transactions, approved without restrictions by Brazil’s antitrust regulator CADE last friday (22/05), underscore GIC’s aggressive strategy to capitalize on infrastructure opportunities in Latin America’s largest economy.

TELECOM EXPANSION

CADE’s General Superintendence gave the green light for Warrington to acquire a non-controlling stake in IHS Latin America (Latam Towers). This deal makes GIC a partner of Macquarie Asset Management, which acquired IHS’s regional operations, including Brazilian mobile towers, earlier this year.

"The operation represents a strong investment opportunity in Brazil’s telecommunications sector," GIC stated in regulatory filings. The regulator noted that the deal does not pose competition risks, as the combined market share in vertically integrated segments remains below the 30% threshold.

ENERGY TRANSMISSION PARTNERSHIP

In a parallel move, GIC has been expanding its Framework Investment Agreement (FIA) with Neoenergia (NEOE3) since 2023. Warrington’s subsidiary, Unique Power, has entered into a deal to acquire 50% of new shares in Neoenergia Transmissão.

The transaction involved the transfer of the Itabapoana transmission asset, with an equity value of 127.5 million reais ($22 million). Itabapoana’s net debt of 577 million reais has already been deconsolidated from Neoenergia’s balance sheet as of late 2024.

The deal was based on a massive 2023 agreement where GIC acquired 50% stakes in several major Neoenergia transmission projects, including:

• Jalapão & Santa Luzia: Major lines spanning thousands of kilometers across Piauí, Bahia, Tocantins, and Ceará.
• Dourados & Atibaia: Key infrastructure strengthening the power grid in the Southeast and Midwest regions.
• Rio Formoso: A complex project in Bahia involving multiple substations and transmission lines.

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

For GIC, these moves align with its global mandate to invest in long-term infrastructure assets. For Neoenergia, the partnership provides a capital-efficient path to continue its growth in Brazil’s power sector by leveraging the financial muscle of a global institutional investor.

The energy transaction remains subject to final approval from Brazil’s electricity regulator ANEEL and European competition authorities.

Gasoline vs. Ethanol in Brazil: Why Biofuel Is Winning the Price Battle

Hydrous ethanol has become more competitive against gasoline in Brazil as prices continued to fall in the second week of May, driven by the sugarcane harvest in the country's Center-South region.

According to data analyzed by fleet management firm Veloe, the price ratio between ethanol and gasoline dropped to 69.7% in early May, down from 71.7% in late April. This falls below the critical 70% threshold typically used by owners of flex-fuel vehicles to determine the economic advantage of biofuel over fossil fuels.

A flex fuel car is basically a vehicle whose motor is made so it can run on ethanol, on gasoline, or on some blend of both, and honestly in any proportion. The real little “secret” behind this whole thing is the electronic control unit, also called the injection module. It can identify what fuel is being used and then it automatically tweaks the engine settings, so it aims for the best performance and efficiency. The world’s first mass-produced flex-fuel car was launched in Brazil in 2003: the Volkswagen Gol Total Flex 1.6. From that milestone, this know how spread pretty fast, picking up popularity among the big automakers that are already established in the country. Today, this type of vehicle can be seen everywhere in Brazil.

ETHANOL VS. GASOLINE COMPETITIVENESS

The deepening decline in ethanol prices, which began in mid-April, contrasts with the more moderate price adjustments seen in other fuels:

• Gasoline: Dropped 0.27% to an average of 6.76 reais per liter.
• S-10 Diesel: Decreased 1.27% to an average of 7.21 reais per liter.

"The market is closely monitoring the evolution of the harvest, alongside factors such as global oil prices, exchange rates, and the production mix between sugar and ethanol," Veloe, a subsidiary of Elopar (controlled by Banco do Brasil and Bradesco), said in a statement.

REGIONAL PRICE DROPS

The sharpest absolute price drops for ethanol were concentrated in Brazil's agricultural heartland, reflecting the impact of the ongoing harvest:

• Goiás: -4.9%
• São Paulo: -4.7%
• Federal District: -4.6%
• Minas Gerais: -4.2%
• Mato Grosso: -4.1%

Analysts suggest that the increased supply from the Center-South harvest is the primary driver behind these regional declines, providing relief to consumers and improving the biofuels' market share.

Flávio Bolsonaro Scandal: Contradictions Mount in $24M "Dark Horse" Film Funding Case

Brazilian Senator and presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro faces mounting pressure as new contradictions emerge regarding his ties to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro and the $24 million (134 million reais) funding for a biopic about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro — who is imprisoned for the crime of attempted coup d'état.

The scandal, dubbed by some political analysts as a "slow-release revelation," has triggered a decline in Flávio’s poll numbers and raised serious questions about campaign finance legality and potential "slush funds" (caixa dois).

TIMELINE OF CONTRADICTIONS

The controversy has been marked by a series of shifting versions from the Bolsonaro camp:

• Initial Denial: When first confronted by Intercept Brasil reporters, Flávio Bolsonaro laughed off the allegations, calling the journalist a "militant."
• Forced Admission: Hours later, the senator admitted to seeking "private sponsorship" from Vorcaro but claimed the contact occurred before the banker’s legal troubles became public.
• The Meeting: This week, Flávio was forced to admit to a face-to-face meeting with Vorcaro while the banker was already wearing an electronic ankle monitor.

THE "DARK HORSE" FUNDING MYSTERY

Conflicting accounts from the film’s production team have added to the confusion:

1. GOUP Entertainment: The production company initially denied receiving any funds from Vorcaro, later suggesting he was merely an "intermediary" for anonymous donors.
2. Mário Frias: The executive producer and congressman first denied Vorcaro’s involvement, then backtracked, admitting a partnership with "Entre Investimentos," a firm closely linked to the banker.
3. Eduardo Bolsonaro: The senator’s brother initially denied involvement but later admitted to signing a contract as executive producer and advancing funds for the project.

POTENTIAL LEGAL AND ELECTORAL CONSEQUENCES

While the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) states there is currently no legal impediment to Flávio’s candidacy, the situation could shift rapidly. Investigators are focusing on whether the film, titled Dark Horse, could be classified as "irregular campaign propaganda" if released during the election cycle.

Furthermore, if the $24 million negotiated with Vorcaro is proven to be corporate funding rather than personal donations, it would violate Brazilian electoral law, potentially leading to charges of abuse of economic power.

IMPACT ON 2026 PRESIDENTIAL POLLS

The latest Atlas Intel poll shows center-left President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 47%, while the far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro has slipped to 34.3%. Analysts suggest that while Flávio retains a loyal base of approximately 30% of the electorate, the "bleeding" of moderate supporters could favor other far-right candidates like Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, or Ronaldo Caiado — all three willing to coerce the Supreme Federal Court (STF) through force, meaning they all openly hold positions that put Brazilian democracy at risk.

Therefore, Brazil's conservative movement is facing significant volatility ahead of the 2026 presidential race due to the financial controversy surrounding Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s film project. This scandal has weakened his candidacy, fragmented potential alliances, and prompted alternative right-wing figures.

While high rejection rates and skepticism complicate Flávio's path, the Bolsonaro family remains a dominant political force. Consequently, the Brazilian far-right is currently divided between maintaining loyalty to the Bolsonaro brand, which is immersed in the biggest political scandal in Brazilian history, or searching for an alternative far-right candidate for the upcoming election cycle.

São Paulo Set for Record Biomethane Production, Targeting 1 Million Cubic Meters Daily

After the Brazilian federal government published on May 6 the Resolution 4/2026 of the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE), which sets an annual targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the state of São Paulo is on track to reach a record installed production capacity of 1 million cubic meters of biomethane per day by the end of 2026, enough to supply all 2.8 million residential gas connections in the state, officials said.

The volume, equivalent to replacing approximately 4,000 diesel-powered urban buses, marks a major milestone in Brazil’s energy transition. São Paulo currently hosts nine of the 19 biomethane plants operating nationwide, with another 11 units awaiting authorization.

"We are preparing to reach the record mark of approximately one million cubic meters per day by December," Marisa Barros, Undersecretary for Energy and Mining at the State Secretariat for Environment, Infrastructure, and Logistics (Semil), told an industry event last week.

DECARBONIZING LOGISTICS

The surge in biomethane — a renewable gas produced from agricultural and landfill waste — is central to São Paulo’s strategy to hit net-zero emissions by 2050. Heavy vehicles, such as trucks and buses, are primary targets for conversion to the renewable fuel, which can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 99% compared to diesel.

In the city of São Paulo, the "BioSP" program is already testing biomethane-powered buses to bypass infrastructure bottlenecks currently hindering electric vehicle adoption.

CORPORATE ADOPTION

Major industries are already integrating the fuel into their operations:

• Natura: The cosmetics giant uses biomethane to power 45% of its industrial processes and 100% of its logistics fleet between its Cajamar factory and Greater São Paulo.
• Aviation Sector: Projects are underway to produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) from biogas derived from sugarcane waste, supported by international partnerships with institutions like Sweden’s Swedfund.

REGULATORY MOMENTUM

The National Petroleum Agency (ANP) has streamlined authorization processes to align with Brazil’s "Fuel of the Future" law. "We noticed a significant increase in requests for new industrial plants, driven by recent federal and state incentives," said Marcos Werner, a superintendent at the ANP.

Beyond São Paulo, other states are also advancing:

• Santa Catarina: H2A Bioenergia recently received authorization for the country’s first biomethane plant using swine waste.
• Rio Grande do Sul: State distributor Sulgás launched the "BioHub" to connect remote producers to the existing gas grid, aiming to diversify the state’s energy portfolio and reduce reliance on external sources like Bolivia or offshore pre-salt gas.

CIRCULAR ECONOMY

The expansion of biomethane is being framed as an economic opportunity for small farmers and agribusinesses to monetize organic waste. State environmental agency Cetesb has modernized its licensing procedures, reducing approval times to as little as 60 days to accelerate the transition.

"Biomethane is a strategic pillar in decarbonization," said Allan Cellim da Silva of Cetesb. "It integrates the biofuel into the circular economy while ensuring a secure and agile transition for the industry."

Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) Aims for Brazil's Diesel Self-Sufficiency by 2030 with $6.4 Billion Investment

State-run oil giant Petrobras committed on Monday to making Brazil self-sufficient in diesel production by 2030, announcing 37 billion reais ($6.4 billion) in investments for São Paulo state through the end of the decade.

The announcement, made by Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard, marks a significant shift in the company’s strategic ambition, moving from an original target of 85% domestic diesel coverage to a goal of 100%.

"We have committed to President Lula to be self-sufficient in diesel in this country by 2030," Chambriard told reporters during an event at the Replan refinery, Brazil’s largest processing unit.

ENERGY SECURITY PUSH

The push for self-sufficiency comes amid heightened global geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving the United States and Iran, which has spiked concerns over global energy supply chains and price volatility.

"In this troubled moment of war... concerns regarding our country's energy security are exacerbated," Chambriard said. "Every country is discussing its energy security, and Brazil is no exception."

Petrobras currently supplies approximately 75% of Brazil’s diesel. The company plans to increase its refining capacity to bridge the remaining gap, reducing the country’s vulnerability to international price swings and import dependencies.

REFINING HUB

São Paulo state, which handles half of Petrobras’ total refining and 40% of Brazil’s fuel consumption, will be the heart of this expansion.

• Refining Investment: 17 billion reais will be allocated to refining projects.
• Replan Focus: 6 billion reais will go to the Replan refinery in Paulínia to expand its processing capacity by 63,000 barrels per day, specifically targeting high-value S10 diesel.
• Broader Network: An additional 11 billion reais will be invested across the Revap, RPBC, and Recap refineries.

The CEO noted that increased diesel production will naturally boost gasoline output, further improving domestic fuel availability.

OFFSHORE AND RENEWABLES

Beyond refining, Petrobras will invest 9 billion reais in offshore exploration and production in São Paulo’s pre-salt fields, including the new "Arã" area and upgrades to the Sapinhoá and Mexilhão fields. The investment package also includes:

• Port of Santos: 3.3 billion reais to expand the water terminal and storage capacity.
• Energy Transition: Projects for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using recycled cooking oil and a new photovoltaic plant for Replan’s internal consumption.

Petrobras estimates the investment cycle will generate approximately 38,000 direct and indirect jobs in São Paulo by 2030. "São Paulo is the largest consumer market in Brazil, and Petrobras cannot and does not intend to be absent from it," Chambriard concluded.