Thursday, 8 August 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro says that a famous torturer from dictatorship times in Brazil (1964-1985) is a "national hero"

President Jair Bolsonaro said today that Colonel Carlos Alberto Brilhante Ustra, chief of DOI-Codi during the military dictatorship in Brazil, is a "national hero". There are several testimonies of political prisoners who were tortured by Ustra during the dictatorship in Brazil.

According to Miguel Reali Jr., "to consecrate a torturer, thus recognized by the judiciary, as a national hero is to legitimize torture," said the jurist and former minister of justice who was one of the authors of the impeachment request of former president Dilma Rousseff.

The barbarities committed by Ustra are widely known in Brazil. According to Amelinha Teles, one of the victims of torture during the dictatorship, the tortured suffered shocks in the anus, vagina, systematic rapes. One of the torturers masturbated while she was strapped to the "dragon chair" and threw sperm at her.

Cost of living in Brazil: IPCA grows only 0.19% in July

According to the IBGE, the July Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) varied 0.19%, 0.18 percentage points (pp) above the June result (0.01%). This was the lowest IPCA for the month of July since 2014, when it stood at 0.01%. The accumulated variation in the year was 2.42% and, compared to the last 12 months, the index fell to 3.22%, below the 3.37% recorded in the immediately preceding 12 months. In July 2018, the rate was 0.33%.

The sector that had the biggest increase in prices was housing, whose variation was 1.20%. The reason for this increase was the increase in electricity prices, which, on average, was 4.48% more expensive. Food and beverages were virtually unchanged, with prices rising by 0.01%.

In the accumulated 12-month period through July, the IPCA increased by 3.22%, against 3.37% in the previous month. Reuters poll pointed out analyst expectations were up 0.24% in July, accumulating 12-month advance of 3.28%

Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approved the Social Security Reform in the second round; text now goes to the Senate

Pension reform is expected to produce savings of approximately R$ 900 billion over the next 10 years. This number is very close to what the Brazilian financial market expected. Now the text of the Reformation goes to the Senate, but it shouldn't change much.

Even with the approval of the Pension Reform, analysts believe that the year 2019 is already lost. That is, the Brazilian economy must remain stagnant or with very low growth until the end of the year.

The basic interest rate cut of the Brazilian economy, Selic, should continue. The Brazilian Central Bank, through the Copom, cut interest rates from 6.5 to 6% per year. Analysts believe the Copom should cut interest rates again to 5.5% at the next meeting, or at least cut interest rates by 0.25% to 5.75%.


Wednesday, 7 August 2019

Petrobras (PETR4; PETR3) studies creating two new companies for its thermoelectric plants and transportation to make IPOs on Bovespa (B3); for Goldman Sachs, Petrobras presented "positive news about pre-salt cost efficiency"

According to Jornal do Comércio, Petrobras intends to create two new companies to enable the sale of part of its transportation and energy assets. The information was given by directors of the state and the president Roberto Castello Branco in a meeting with market analysts. 

The strategy is that these companies group several assets to be offered in the stock market through an IPO similar to that made with BR Distribuidora (BRDT3), which generated almost R $ 9.6 billion.

Goldman Sachs analysts published a report following a meeting with Petrobras President and Chief Financial Officer Andrea Almeida highlighting “positive news about pre-salt cost efficiency”. For them, the Brazilian state managed to achieve, in the most recently developed platforms, an extraction cost as low as $ 4 per barrel, or 33% below the pre-salt average in the second quarter of 2019.

The financial market in Brazil celebrates the approval of runoff of Pension Reform by the House of Representatives; Copom report presented by the Brazilian Central Bank's points toward the perspective for new cuts in the basic economy rates, the Selic

After a vote of 370 votes in favor and 124 against, the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approved the Social Security Reform. Highlights will now be voted on, which may change some points of the approved text.

According to the website Poder360, The Central Bank announced through the report of the last Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting that the basic interest rate may fall again in the coming months. At the committee's last meeting, interest rates fell from 6,5 to 6 percent a year. This is the lowest rate in the historical series.

According to a study by economist Affonso Celso Pastore, the Brazilian economy will take a long time to improve. Latest indicators worry and point to impending economic recession. To make matters worse, weak data on Brazilian industry, trade, and services, the main drivers of the country's growth, point to a fall in Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter of 2019.

Therefore, even with the prospect of interest rate cuts by Copom, the tendency is for the Brazilian economy to continue at a very weak pace.

Tuesday, 6 August 2019

Brazilian financial market bets on the approval of the Social Security Reform in the second-round vote in the Chamber of Deputies; Tax Reform would be next step

However, there is a possibility of weakening in the text of the Social Security Reform, which aims to save around 900 billion reais in 10 years. Now in the second round, MPs cannot include new passages in the text but may remove parts of the text, which could reduce the total saved.

For most analysts, the Brazilian National Congress must now turn its attention to a Tax Reform. Yesterday, the presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate announced that they will present a single proposal for tax reform.

According to many Brazilian economists, despite this positive movement of the National Congress to work to present reforms with Social Security, there is still no guarantee of the resumption of economic growth.

Now, for analysts, Brazil needs beyond tax reform, improving the business environment, advancing infrastructure projects and promoting the opening of the economy.

Monday, 5 August 2019

Cost of living in Brazil: Petrobras (PETR4) announces a reduction in gas price, but the measure does not reach consumers; Vale (VALE3) and Petrobras (PETR3) pull Brazilian GDP down

The National Union of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Distribution Companies (Sindigás) reported that Petrobras will reduce the price of gas by up to 12% for residential consumption and up to 17% for corporate consumption. Brazilian refineries will practice the reduction in prices from today, August 5.

In Brazil, cooking gas (LPG) is usually sold in 13 kg canisters for residential use and in packages over 13 kg for business use. However, it is still unclear how the measure can cheapen cooking gas. The fall in the price for the end consumer depends on a number of factors, such as an infrastructure that allows the effective reduction of the gas price and that does not exist in Brazil.

According to the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea), Vale and Petrobras' performance in the first half of 2019 helped push Brazilian GDP down.

According to Ipea, the poor performance of the Brazilian extractive industry in the first half will decrease by 0.2 percentage point the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion of 2019, despite the expected improvement until the end of the year.

Sunday, 4 August 2019

The newspaper Folha de S.Paulo states that Brazilian Justice Minister Sérgio Moro omitted money received for giving a lecture in his accountability when he was a judge; Minister stated that the registration was made later; hashtag #MoroSonegador (meaning "Moro evader") gains momentum on Twitter

In yet another article based on alleged messages from members of the Lava Jato task force from The Intercept Brasil, the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo states that Moro omitted a paid account at the time he was a federal judge.

According to the newspaper, judges have a period of one month to inform their participation in the events and must record the date, subject, place, and entity they organized. Based on the messages, the report points to a talk Moro would not have recorded in his accountability. The minister told Folha that the omission of the event 'may have occurred by pure lapse'. In a Tweet, Moro also states that the registration was made later, in 2017.

Saturday, 3 August 2019

Industrial production in Brazil falls 0.6% in June 2019 and has a second negative month in a row

Brazilian industry fell by 0.6% in June 2019, following a decrease of 0.1% in May 2019. The loss of pace in the sector reflects the reduction in production in 17 out of 26 activities and in all major economic categories of goods. intermediary, consumer, and capital markets.

The Brazilian industrial sector accounted for 25% of GDP in 1985. Now represents about 13%.

According to the website O Cafezinho, for the Institute for Industrial Development Studies (IEDI), between 1980 and 2017, the Brazilian manufacturing industry grew by only 24%, while the world industry grew by 204% and the world excluding China increased by 135%. The United States grew at the same pace as the world outside China. Most developing countries grew above the world economy and most developed countries below. The Chinese case is unique because China has increased the size of its industrial park by more than 40 times. South Korea has increased 17 times, Indonesia and India 12 times, Malaysia and Ireland 11 times.

To Ha-Joon Chang, professor of economics at Cambridge University, "Brazil is experiencing one of the largest deindustrializations in the history of economics."

The participation of industry in the Brazilian GDP has been falling since 1986. It is deeply necessary for Brazil to grow again, to combat poverty again and to stop deindustrialization.

The government needs to re-engage in an industrial policy aimed, for example, at the Oil and Gas industries, the health industrial complex, the agribusiness industry (creating a favorable scenario for the emergence of industries of agricultural supplements, fertilizers, etc.), integrating the Brazilian industry with the whole of international trade.


Friday, 2 August 2019

Government forces suppress a group of 180 Kinikinaus Indians protesting for demarcation of land in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, in Brazil

A group of Kinikinawa Indians occupied a farm in the Aquidauana region today, August 2, 2019. Military Police (MP) were called in and used rubber bullets against the Indians. Many Indians were injured. Funai follows the situation.

Opposition Senator Humberto Costa said, "Police were tough on cracking down on the 180 Kinikinaus Indians who protested in favor of demarcating the land." According to Costa, "Under @jairbolsonaro, Funai refuses to say that there was conflict. The victims, many of them children, know what happened."
According to information from the website O Pantaneiro, the natives arrived at the site at dawn, claiming that they owned the land. The group asked the ranch owner and his wife to leave immediately.

Majority of Brazilians is against president Jair Bolsonaro's proposal to release mineral exploration in Brazil Indigenous areas

A survey by the Datafolha Institute points out that 86% of the Brazilian population disagrees with President Jair Bolsonaro's plan to open mineral exploration in Indigenous areas.

According to Datafolha, the survey was conducted between June 4 and 6, with 2,088 interviews distributed in 168 municipalities in all regions of the country. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points with a confidence level of 95%.

For environmentalists, the president's bill, which aims to release regulation of indigenous land mining, if approved, will increase the number of illegal mines on indigenous land.

A report released in late 2018 by the Amazon Georeferenced Socioenvironmental Information Network (Raisg) identified illegal mining sites in 18 indigenous reserve areas in Brazil.

For the indigenous leader, Almir Suruí, President Jair Bolsonaro's project was done without the participation of traditional populations in the discussion of the project. According to him, the project "is an environmental, social and economic setback in the country. We have not been consulted. We do not know what climate and environmental impacts this activity may have."

Brazil to Host World's Largest Biogas Plant, Pioneering Sustainable Energy

The Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) marks construction commencement of the world's largest biogas plant from citrus effluents, which is loc...