Cost of Living in Brazil in 2026: A Practical Guide for Expats

São Paulo, Brazil — Anyone planning to live in Brazil in 2026 should be prepared for a country that combines economic stability with relatively high everyday costs. While inflation is easing and interest rates are expected to decline, the cost of living remains a key factor for expatriates considering relocation or long-term residence.

This report breaks down what expats need to know about inflation, housing, income, and daily expenses in Brazil in 2026, based on official data and market expectations.

Inflation in Brazil: What Expats Should Expect in 2026

According to projections compiled by the Central Bank of Brazil’s Focus Report, consumer inflation (IPCA) is expected to remain close to 4.0% in 2026, near the upper limit of the official inflation target range.

For expats, this means that prices for essentials — including groceries, utilities, transportation, and personal services — are likely to continue rising, though at a slower and more predictable pace than in previous years. Inflation is no longer accelerating, but it is still high enough to affect monthly budgets.

Interest Rates and the Cost of Credit

Brazil continues to operate with one of the highest interest rates in the world. After ending 2025 with the Selic rate at 15%, economists expect gradual cuts throughout 2026, with the benchmark rate likely to finish the year between 12.0% and 12.25%.

For expatriates, this has direct implications:

• Mortgages and personal loans remain expensive

• Credit card interest rates are extremely high

• Financing property or vehicles locally can be costly

Many expats rely on foreign savings or international financing to avoid Brazil’s high domestic borrowing costs.

Housing Costs: Rent and Property Prices

Housing remains the largest expense for most expats living in Brazil’s major cities such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, and Florianópolis.

Market projections indicate that housing prices and rents may rise between 6% and 10% in nominal terms in 2026, driven by:

• Limited housing supply in prime neighborhoods

• Inflation-adjusted rent contracts

• Strong demand in urban centers

Expats renting in desirable areas should expect housing to consume a significant share of their monthly income, particularly in cities with strong job markets or tourist appeal.

Monthly Cost of Living in Brazil for Expats

While official government agencies do not publish a single “cost of living” figure, widely used private estimates suggest the following averages:

• Single expat: around US$19,000–20,000 per year

• Family of four: over US$40,000 per year, depending on lifestyle and city

• In local currency, monthly expenses for a middle-class family in large cities can exceed R$13,000

These figures typically include housing, food, transportation, utilities, healthcare, and leisure, but exclude international school tuition, which can significantly raise costs for families.

Income, Jobs, and Purchasing Power

Brazil’s economy is expected to grow by 1.7% to 1.8% in 2026, reflecting modest but stable expansion. Analysts project real household income growth of close to 4%, supported by a relatively strong labor market.

For expats earning in foreign currency — such as US dollars or euros — Brazil can remain attractive, especially if the exchange rate stays around R$5.50 per US dollar. However, those paid in local currency may still feel pressure from high prices in housing and services.

Fiscal Risks and Long-Term Outlook

Brazil’s fiscal situation continues to influence the cost of living. Public debt is expected to remain above 70% of GDP, limiting the government’s ability to stimulate the economy without increasing inflation or interest rates.

For expats, this reinforces a key reality:

Brazil in 2026 is economically stable, but structurally expensive, particularly for services and credit.

Bottom Line: Is Brazil Affordable for Expats in 2026?

Brazil offers a high quality of life, diverse cities, and a vibrant culture — but affordability depends heavily on income source and location.

Key takeaways for expats:

• Inflation is stable but still noticeable

• Interest rates remain high

• Housing is the main cost pressure

• Foreign-currency earners are better positioned

• Careful budgeting is essential

For expats planning a move in 2026, Brazil remains an attractive destination — but not a low-cost one.

Brazil Tax Revenue Hits Record R$2.88 Trillion in 2025: Growth Drivers and Infrastructure Boom

Brazil's federal government achieved an unprecedented tax collection total of R$ 2.886 trillion during the year 2025, which established a new record for tax revenue. The current value of this measurement shows a 3.65 percent growth when compared to the previous year. According to official data published this week, the increase in Brazil's tax revenue emerges from two main factors which include strong economic performance and changes made to tax rates.

The result confirms what recent indicators have been signaling: the Brazilian economy remains resilient, supported by strong domestic demand and an active labor market. The Brazilian fiscal situation presents a dual character because the country shows strong financial performance while infrastructure concessions have reached historic levels.

IOF Tax Surge: Key Driver of Brazil's Record Revenue

The record tax collection in Brazil shows its most important source of revenue generation through the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF Tax). The IOF tax brought Brazil R$ 86.5 billion in revenue during 2025, which represents a 20.5% growth when compared to the previous year. The IOF tax experienced its most significant increase when the government raised tax rates during the last months of 2024.

IOF provided only a minor contribution to government revenue during its early years as a tax. The present shows a major difference because the R$ 80 billion in IOF revenue today compares to the approximately R$ 200 billion spent each year on the Bolsa Família social program. Economists describe this development as a demonstration of "different Brazil" which establishes social policies that drive consumption and result in increased tax revenues.

Keynesian Multiplier Effect: How Social Transfers Boost Brazil's Tax Collection

The revenue data provides a real world example of how the Keynesian multiplier effect operates. When the government provides income transfers to households, it leads to increased consumer spending which drives economic growth and results in higher tax revenue for Brazil.

Economists acknowledge the immediate economic benefits of the short-term increase yet they emphasize that Brazil's economic development requires long-term productivity improvements and innovative technological advancements and development of competitive businesses. The social programs in Brazil have maintained growth rates above 3% through the short to medium term while experts predict 2024 economic growth will range from 2% to 2.5%.

Infrastructure Concessions: A Historic Record for Brazil

Brazil is experiencing multiple major infrastructure developments which accompany its increasing revenue. The current term will end with President Lula's administration completing more infrastructure concessions than any previous government. The current volume of 50 auctions which includes highways, ports, and airports shows a major trend toward private companies taking part in these projects.

Sandro Cabral, who holds the position of Professor of Strategy and Public Management at Insper, states that the current record demonstrates strong investor interest which includes foreign capital investment. "Brazil is a country of immense opportunities," Cabral explains. "While our infrastructure deficiencies are significant, they represent a 'half-full glass' for investors looking to diversify their portfolios in an interesting market."

Generating Public Value Beyond Fiscal Relief

The auctions provide a financial solution which enables funding for major projects without impacting the federal budget. Experts believe that government programs exist to deliver public benefits, which remain their main purpose. The value of this system operates through its established relationship between benefits and costs, which delivers better public services through private sector partnerships that receive government and multilateral organization support.

Subway system expansions which create better transportation routes lead to two main benefits for society. The state agenda which exists in this context unites different political parties through its support of public-private partnership initiatives which both Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Chief of Staff Rui Costa have worked on for many years.

Formal Employment Boom: Record Social Security Revenue in Brazil

The government budget received essential financial support from the high rate of job creation. Social security contributions reached a record R$ 737 billion last year, driven by rising formal employment. Data from Brazil's labor registry (CAGED) show record levels of workers with formal contracts, which directly translates into higher contributions to the national pension system.

The system continues to operate with existing structural deficiencies. The country has 102 million working citizens but only 45 million of them work in formal employment. The large informal sector poses a major long-term risk because these workers will probably depend on non-contributory benefits like the BPC minimum wage guarantee when they become elderly, which will result in more severe pension system imbalances.

Brazil's Fiscal Picture: Primary Balance vs. R$1 Trillion Interest Burden

Higher taxes are not popular among citizens yet the increased revenue has enabled better control of public budgets. Brazil's primary fiscal result will achieve near budget balance which matches the target set by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad.

The interest burden represents the actual pressure point for the situation. Brazil needs to pay more than R$ 900 billion in annual interest costs because its public debt surpasses R$ 8 trillion while interest rates range from 12% to 13%. Analysts believe this situation represents Brazil's most significant fiscal weakness.

Future Outlook: Strategic Sectors and Looming Challenges

The government plans to boost concession operations, which the Ministry of Ports and Airports plans to expand through 40 upcoming projects. The main sectors that show high growth possibilities include the following areas:

• The railways system serves as a vital resource for big freight companies that operate in mining and agricultural sectors through projects such as the Ferrogrão initiative.

• The national objectives face major difficulties in sanitation, which draws attention from people who support different political views.

• Social infrastructure encompasses public lighting systems and hospital facilities and sports venues.

Although Brazil shows progress in its current fiscal situation, this improvement does not solve the nation's fundamental economic problems that exist beyond the present time. The country needs deep changes to its fiscal system and debt management and productivity development to achieve sustainable growth and attain both record revenue and private investment.

Brazil’s Inflation Hits Six-Year Low as Public Perception Remains Deeply Split, New Data Shows

Brazil posted its lowest November inflation rate since 2018, signaling positive momentum for the economy, but new survey data reveals a country sharply divided between optimism and financial stress.

Brazil’s official inflation index (IPCA) rose 0.18% in November, slightly below market expectations and marking the lowest figure for the month in six years. Year-to-date inflation reached 3.92%, while the 12-month rate stood at 4.46%, safely under the central bank’s 4.50% upper target. Economists view the result as one of the most encouraging signs for price stability in 2024.

The main drivers of inflation remain non-tradable services, such as education, health care, haircuts, and parking, sectors heated by a historically tight labor market. Brazil’s unemployment rate is now 5.4%, its lowest level in years. Meanwhile, inflation for tradable goods continues to ease, supported by a stronger Brazilian real earlier in the year and six consecutive months of falling in-home food prices.

Still, political volatility has weighed on financial assets. Discussions around a potential presidential bid by Flávio Bolsonaro triggered a sharp reaction in markets: the exchange rate jumped from R$5.30 to R$5.50, and long-term interest rates spiked. A weaker currency increases the cost of imported goods, potentially pressuring inflation in 2025.

Upcoming decisions from the Brazilian central bank’s COPOM and the U.S. Federal Reserve add more uncertainty. A possible Fed rate cut, expected at 0.25 percentage points, may weaken the U.S. dollar and reduce the massive interest rate gap between the two countries, a shift widely viewed as favorable for Brazil.

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Survey Reveals a Country Split Between Anxiety and Optimism

New findings from the Ipsos Cost of Living Monitor 2025 highlight the paradox of Brazilian public sentiment.

According to the survey, 35% of Brazilians say they are in a difficult or very difficult financial situation, well above the global average of 27%. Yet the same 35% believe their income will increase next year, making Brazilians more optimistic than most of the world.

The divergence between perception and economic indicators is striking. Brazil is the only country among the 30 surveyed where the population blames high interest rates, not global conditions or national policies, for personal financial hardship. This reflects a cultural reality: Brazilians strongly associate financial pressure with the cost of installment plans and consumer credit.

Confusion over broader economic conditions is also clear. 36% of Brazilians believe the country is in a recession, even though Brazil has not entered a technical recession since 2020. Meanwhile, 66% expect interest rates to rise next year, despite forecasts showing the opposite.

Brazil’s unemployment rate stood at 5.6% in the three-month period ending in September, according to the IBGE’s continuous household survey. This marks the third consecutive quarter at 5.6%, matching the lowest rate ever recorded since the indicator began in 2002. A year earlier, the rate was 6.4%.

In total, 6.45 million people were unemployed, the lowest level in the historical series. This represents a 3.3% drop compared to the previous quarter and an 11.8% decrease relative to the same period in 2024. The IBGE also reported a record number of formal jobs, with 39.2 million workers holding signed work contracts.

Total real income reached R$ 354.6 billion, another record, with 5.5% annual growth.

These record lows in unemployment levels, record income, and record formal employment contrasts with earlier predictions that Brazil was heading toward an economic “abyss.” Those predictions, made by economists mostly linked to the Brazilian financial market and also to the country's right-wing candidates, especially those who want Tarcísio de Freitas as president in 2027, have been getting their predictions about the country wrong for years. In this case, 2025 was no different.

The year of 2025 in Brazil was marked by stock market highs, a stable exchange rate, and criticism of political narratives that predict national collapse of an economy that is functioning reasonably well.

Thus, the Ipsos survey indicates that this blend of caution and hope reveals a deeper pattern: Brazilians often expect the macroeconomy to worsen — perhaps because they spend the entire year listening to catastrophic predictions for the national economy in the mainstream media —, even as they believe their own lives will improve. But until lower interest rates and tax changes show up — the country implemented a major tax reform this year — in household budgets, the gap between perception and economic data is likely to persist. 

Brazil’s Deindustrialization Is Not What It Seems: New Data Reveals a Highly Concentrated and Uneven Decline

For years, the narrative around Brazil’s economic decline has pointed to a single culprit: deindustrialization. The story often sounds straightforward, the industrial sector shrank, and that’s it. But recent data tells a far more complex and revealing story, one that challenges long-held assumptions about what really happened to Brazilian industry.

Brazil’s deindustrialization is portrayed as a deep and long-term process that has weakened key sectors such as agribusiness and the automotive industry, leading to widespread job losses. This decline is linked not only to recent political events like the Lava Jato operation, which dismantled major value chains connected to Petrobras and large construction firms like Odebrecht — who led the construction sector in Africa, for example —, but also to earlier policies dating back to the late 1980s and 1990s. Market liberalization under the Collor Plan and the FHC administration opened the Brazilian economy without protecting national industries, accelerating the dismantling of sectors such as electronics, defense, and automotive.

To face this process it is necessary emphasizes the central role of the state in reversing deindustrialization, contrasting Brazil’s limited intervention with the strong state-driven strategies of the United States and China. In the U.S., government investment through institutions like DARPA and massive military-industrial funding has historically created the foundation for technologies later commercialized by private companies — illustrated by examples such as the internet, GPS, and Elon Musk’s reliance on public contracts for SpaceX. This dynamic reinforces the classic “center and periphery” structure described by Celso Furtado, where developed nations concentrate high value-added production and extract wealth from developing economies, maintaining their dominance through economic pressure and strategic intervention.

Infortnately to Brazil, it joined the neoliberal policies of the Washington Consensus further weakened its industrial capacity, limiting monetary autonomy and suppressing domestic industry through high interest rates and a floating exchange rate. Meanwhile, China achieved rapid growth by rejecting this policy model and adopting long-term state-led industrial planning. Reindustrializing Brazil requires a 50-year national project centered on strong state action, strategic investment, and rule changes that enable industrial development.

If you look at the data, a little more than 20 years ago, industry represented 22% of Brazil’s GDP. Today it’s around 11–12%. 

Today, in Brazil, people say: “Why should I open a company? I’d have to hire workers, face risks, and families aren’t buying much. And if I need a loan, I’ll end up drowning in debt. Why bother, if I can simply buy government bonds?” And this, in my view, it simply kills any industrialization processis practically criminal. The fact that Brazil have one of the highest interest rates (the Selic rate) in the world.

Look at Japan, just for comparison. There’s been an uproar there because they doubled their interest rate on public debt. It went from 0.25% per year to 0.50% per year, and the Japanese were shocked. In Brazil, the Selic it’s already above 15%. 

A Dramatic National Decline, but Not the Whole Story

Between 1986 and 2022, the share of industry in Brazil’s formal employment plunged from nearly 28% to just over 15%. The drop signals a massive economic transformation. And it wasn’t just a cyclical dip.

A 2025 study went further, labeling Brazil “the world’s most severe case of premature deindustrialization.” In other words, the country lost its industrial base before becoming rich, a trajectory very different from that of developed nations.

At first glance, the data paints a bleak picture. But a deeper look reveals that this national average hides a far more uneven and surprising reality.

The Regional Puzzle: Deindustrialization Has an Address

One of the most striking findings is that the decline was not evenly distributed across Brazil. In fact, it was overwhelmingly concentrated in a handful of states.

More than 90% of all industrial job losses between 1985 and 2022 came from only three states:

• São Paulo

• Rio de Janeiro

• Rio Grande do Sul

And the biggest shock:

São Paulo alone accounted for 70% of the total decline.

This means Brazil is not facing a nationwide industrial collapse, but rather a localized crisis in former industrial powerhouses. While traditional hubs were losing strength, other states moved in the opposite direction.

Mato Grosso, for example, saw its industrial employment increase eightfold during the same period.

Brazil today is, in practice, two very different industrial countries: one declining, one expanding.

Sector-by-Sector: What Brazil Actually Lost

The sectoral breakdown is equally revealing. In São Paulo, the epicenter of industrial decline, the process did not happen all at once. It came in waves:

• 1990s: textiles and metallurgy were hit hardest.

• 2000s: automotive and electronics sectors suffered major setbacks.

Each decade claimed different victims, showing that the structural shift was not uniform but fragmented and progressive.

This distinction matters because not all industrial jobs are equal. Losing low-tech sectors is one thing; losing the industries that drive innovation is another.

And that is exactly what happened.

High-Tech Industries Were the Most Affected

Studies divide manufacturing into two groups:

• High-technology industries: electronics, chemicals, automotive, machinery

• Low-technology industries: food, textiles, clothing, footwear

The data shows a troubling pattern: the sharpest declines occurred in the high-tech group.

The electrical and electronics sector, for instance, saw its share of employment collapse by nearly 66%.

These are precisely the industries that foster productivity, innovation, and long-term development, the backbone of a modern economy.

The Human Impact: A “Malignant Structural Shift”

Beyond maps and charts, the consequences fall on workers. The study uses a term that sounds technical, “malignant structural change”, but its meaning is simple and alarming.

Workers left industries with higher wages and ended up in sectors with lower pay.

A chart from the study shows that while wages rose slightly for those who remained in certain sectors, these gains were completely offset by the mass migration into worse-paying jobs.

In practice:

• The labor market deteriorated.

• Household incomes fell.

• The shift from industry to services translated into lower living standards for millions of workers.

The Verdict: Deindustrialization Has Three Faces in Brazil

After analyzing geography, sectors, wages, and long-term data, researchers describe Brazil’s deindustrialization as having three defining characteristics:

1. It is highly concentrated: not a nationwide phenomenon, but one rooted in a few key states;

2. It is heterogeneous: each region and each industry tells a different story;

3. It is malignant: the country is losing high-tech sectors while pushing workers into lower-quality jobs.

These findings raise a crucial question for policymakers:

If the problem is not the same everywhere, can a single national strategy solve it?

The answer may shape the future of Brazil’s economy, and determine whether the country can rebuild a modern, competitive industrial base or remain trapped in a cycle of premature decline.

The central argument is that Brazil must focus on producing goods and services that the world wants to buy, regardless of the price, following the model of companies like Apple, which sells an identity and an experience (the iPhone), and not just a product.

A developed country reaches a point where industrialization gives way to the production of sophisticated, high value-added services, such as Engineering, Finance, Robotics, Insurance, and smart home technologies. 

There is a concrete opportunity to reverse Brazilian deindustrialization by focusing on the Health Industrial Complex:

The Federal Government alone annually imports US$ 18 billion in health products from India, China, and Europe.

It is estimated that 80% of these imports are for products with expired patents.

By adding the spending of states, municipalities, and the private sector, the total imports reach about US$ 40 billion (approximately R$ 200 billion).

All of this government spending would be able to could be used to generate a national industrial park through mechanisms such as:

• Copying and pasting technologies from expired patents;
• Business incubators;
• Government purchases protected by WTO rules, guaranteeing a market for local production.

The entire reindustrialization process could therefore begin with the Unified Health System (SUS), the Brazilian public healthcare system. Strengthening and equipping SUS would expand domestic production of medical supplies and technologies, create large numbers of care-related jobs, and meet a massive unmet demand, since seven out of ten health appointments in Brazil occur through SUS. Because demand far exceeds supply, any expansion of the system would immediately generate its own economic activity.

A second priority is the defense sector, which is currently underfunded and technologically weakened. Additional key areas include agro-industry, through the domestic development of fertilizers, agricultural chemicals, machinery, and patented technologies currently imported from foreign monopolies; and bioenergy, viewed as the most important sector for Brazil’s future. Developing bioenergy would allow the country to use its natural resources sustainably while positioning itself at the technological frontier. Furthermore, if we think about the Amazon, which can be seen as a “natural library” rich in scientific potential, which Brazil fails to harness, often allowing foreign researchers to extract knowledge only for the country to buy back expensive finished products. Protecting this ecosystem and investing in its scientific potential are framed as essential to a sustainable and socially just development model.

Brazil's Economic Slowdown: Q3 GDP Growth of 0.1% Signals Policy Success and Rate Cut Dilemma

A recent deep dive into Brazil's latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the third quarter has ignited intense debate across financial markets. Ahead of the official release, economists had anticipated a "soft landing" for the quarter, projecting growth near 0.2% compared to the previous quarter and 1.7% year-over-year. However, the official result, a meager 0.1% growth, fell significantly short of these expectations, marking the smallest growth recorded since the most critical phases of the pandemic.

This sharp deceleration in economic activity raises a crucial question: What do these figures truly reveal about the health of the Brazilian economy, and what are the implications for future monetary policy and the broader political landscape?

A Clear Trend of Losing Momentum
The disappointing 0.1% figure is part of a broader pattern. Brazil’s economy has steadily decelerated, falling from an annual growth rate of 3.6% at the end of 2022 to just 1.8% in the latest comparison. Analysts identify several pressure points behind the slowdown:
High interest rates aimed at containing inflation
Tighter credit conditions across the financial system
A cooling labor market, weighing on consumption
U.S. trade barriers, especially tariffs
Internal Components: Investment Plummets
A closer examination of the GDP's internal components reveals a mixed picture, with investment emerging as the most significant area of concern. While household consumption, a vital economic engine, advanced by a modest 0.4%, the slowest pace in the last year, it is investment that has taken a dramatic hit.

Investment, which is crucial for future growth, has plummeted from an annual growth rate of over 9% just a few quarters ago to a mere 2.3%. This sharp drop, coupled with a decline in imports (a direct reflection of a weaker domestic economy), represents one of the strongest warning signs in the current economic landscape.

Sectoral Resilience: The Commodity Backbone
Despite the overall slowdown, certain sectors are demonstrating remarkable resilience, acting as the economy's vital organs. The extractive industry (primarily oil and iron ore) and agribusiness stand out as the absolute champions of growth, posting impressive advances of nearly 12% and over 10%, respectively. These commodity-linked sectors are largely responsible for propping up the economy at this moment.

However, the industrial sector itself shows a sharp divergence: civil construction has managed a small gain despite high interest rates, while the manufacturing industry is suffering significantly due to the high cost of credit, already showing a year-over-year decline.

Political and Regulatory Headwinds
Beyond the economic data, the political and regulatory environment continues to shape the outlook. In a significant regulatory move, the Senate committee approved an increase in taxation for the sports betting (bets) and financial technology (fintech) sectors. The text now proceeds directly to the Chamber of Deputies for analysis.

According to tax law specialist Emanuele Lemos, any tax change will likely be passed on to the consumer as a cost. Lemos also explained that the new legislation not only increases the tax burden on the value and revenue of bets but also brings greater regulation aimed at curbing illegal gambling. For the *fintech* sector, the discussion centers on balancing the lower taxation they currently enjoy compared to traditional banks, a move the government is attempting to address with this measure.

The Policy Dilemma and Future Outlook
The most critical insight from this analysis is that the current slowdown was not an accident; it was, in large part, intentional. The economic brake is the direct result of two primary policy movements: the Central Bank's aggressive interest rate hike to control inflation and the government's efforts to restrain public expenditure.

The market anticipated that the effect of these restrictive policies would eventually appear in the data. The moment has arrived with the third-quarter numbers, suggesting that the deceleration, while strong, is to some extent a managed and predictable outcome.

With this comprehensive diagnosis in hand, the major question remains: What does this mean for the next steps in economic policy?

The main conclusion is that while the slowdown is strong and undeniable, the economy is not in an uncontrolled freefall or crisis. The data shows the economy is cooling down in a largely predicted and managed way.

This leads directly to the final, pressing question: With the economy showing clear signs of cooling, will the Central Bank accelerate its interest rate cuts? The door is certainly open. However, the central dilemma is whether the economy requires a stronger stimulus now, or if the current deceleration is the necessary, albeit bitter, medicine required to ensure more sustainable growth in the long run. This dilemma, alongside the evolving political and regulatory landscape, will define the next chapters of Brazil's economic story.

Brazil Ends 2025 With Stronger-Than-Expected Economy: Falling Inflation, Industrial Resilience, and Historic Job Market Gains

As 2025 comes to an end, Brazil’s economic performance defies nearly all pessimistic forecasts made at the start of the year. In her latest column for O Globo, journalist Miriam Leitão highlights a surprising mix of falling inflation, a stronger currency, and record labor-market results. New data from industrial production and real estate activity reinforce a picture of resilience, even amid some of the world’s highest interest rates.

Below is a comprehensive overview of the key indicators shaping Brazil’s economic outlook.

Inflation Cools and Food Prices Plunge, Boosting Household Income

At the beginning of 2025, economists predicted a 6% inflation rate. Instead, inflation is closing the year at 4.4%, within the Central Bank’s target band, and may fall even lower.

The real standout is food inflation. Forecasts suggested an increase of 8–9%, yet food inflation is ending the year at just 1.35%, thanks to several consecutive months of declines. This dramatic drop boosted household purchasing power, especially for lower-income families, whose budgets are heavily impacted by food costs.

Brazilian Real Strengthens: Dollar Falls Far Below Expectations

Another major surprise was the exchange rate. Economists warned that the dollar could reach R$ 7.00 in 2025. Instead, the currency reversed course, falling from R$ 6.18 at the start of the year to around R$ 5.35 by year-end, with continued downward pressure.

GDP Avoids Recession Despite Real Interest Rates Near 10%

High interest rates usually push economies into contraction, but Brazil proved more resilient.

The GDP result for Q3, to be released this week, should show slight positive growth of 0.2%, avoiding the recession widely predicted earlier this year. Brazil now appears on track to close 2025 with around 2% GDP growth, far above initial projections.

Industrial Production: Resilience Despite High Interest Rates

Newly released data from Brazil’s industrial sector show a nuanced but encouraging picture.

Overall Industrial Output Rises 1% in October

Industrial production increased 1% in October, driven predominantly by the extractive industry, which surged 3.6% year over year, thanks largely to strong oil output.

Machinery, Equipment, and Durable Goods Show Strength

Segments such as machinery, equipment, and durable goods posted gains, highlighting ongoing pockets of industrial demand even under tight monetary policy.

Manufacturing Declines Slightly but Avoids Collapse

The “true” manufacturing segment — manufatura estrito senso — slipped 0.6% month-over-month. However:

• If refinery activity is excluded, the result improves noticeably.

• Out of 25 industrial sectors, 12 posted growth in October.

This reinforces a key takeaway: Brazil’s industry is not collapsing, despite heavy pressure from a 15% policy interest rate.

FIESP Outlook: Slower Growth, but Still Positive in Key Areas

According to FIESP:

• Overall industrial production is expected to grow 0.9% in 2025, down from 3.1% in 2024.

• Manufacturing output should end 2025 near 0%, with a slight contraction of 0.9% projected for 2026.

Even with these slowdowns, the word of the year is resilience.

Real Estate Market Surges: São Paulo Sees Record Activity

One of the most surprising indicators comes from the real estate sector.

Launches Jump 88% Year-Over-Year in São Paulo

According to Secovi, real estate launches in the city of São Paulo rose an astonishing 88% compared to the previous year.

Sales Increase 8% in October

Property sales in October rose 8% year-over-year, demonstrating strong demand despite high borrowing costs.

This booming activity signals not only confidence in long-term economic prospects but also the impact of falling long-term interest rates.

Long-Term Interest Rates Fall Sharply, Boosting Investment Outlook

While Brazil’s short-term rates remain high, the long end of the yield curve is falling significantly — a critical signal for future growth.

• The 2035 NTNF dropped from 15% to 13% in one year (a 200 bps decline).

• This corresponds to over 20% capital gains for investors in long-term fixed-income assets.

• The entire long-term curve is approaching or dipping below 13%.

This drop supports investment in infrastructure, real estate, and long-horizon business projects.

Unemployment Reaches Lowest Level in History

The labor market remains one of Brazil’s most impressive success stories in 2025.

• The unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest in the historical series.

• Economists are struggling to understand how job creation remains so strong despite tight monetary policy.

Some analysts highlight:

• A portion of workers left the labor force but not due to discouragement.

• Many left work because household income improved enough to allow someone to study or retrain full-time.

Why Interest Rates Still Haven't Fallen

Despite improving inflation, the Central Bank argues that rates cannot be cut yet because inflation remains above the 3% target, even if moving steadily toward it.

Economists are split:

• Some believe rate cuts will begin January 2026.

• Others expect cuts only in March or April.

The consensus: 2026 will be a year of gradual, cautious rate reductions.

A Year That Ends Much Better Than It Began

Brazil closes 2025 with a far more positive economic landscape than expected:

• Inflation is falling

• Food prices dropped dramatically

• The dollar strengthened

• Industrial production shows resilience

• Real estate surged

• Long-term interest rates fell sharply

• Unemployment hit historic lows

• GDP avoided recession

In short, 2025 ends much better than economists predicted, and much better than it started.