Support for Brazilian far-right presidential pre-candidate Flávio Bolsonaro has dropped significantly following the leak of audio messages linking him to a jailed banker, according to a new Atlas Intel/Bloomberg poll released on Tuesday.
The survey is the first to measure the impact of the "Banco Master" scandal on the 2026 presidential race. It shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva solidifying his lead while Flávio, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (imprisoned for the crime of attempted coup d'état), "melt" in both first and second-round scenarios.
KEY POLL FINDINGS
- First Round: President Lula leads with 47% of intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro fell 5.4 percentage points to 34.3%.
- Second Round: Lula holds 48.9% against Flávio’s 41.8%, moving beyond the margin of error for the first time in months.
- Alternative Candidate: If the Liberal Party (PL) runs former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro instead, she trails Lula with 23.4%, as a portion of the right-wing vote migrates to other candidates like Romeu Zema.
SCANDAL PERCEPTION
The poll specifically addressed the leaked audio in which Senator Flávio Bolsonaro requested $24 million from Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master.
- Guilt: 51.7% of respondents believe the messages provide evidence of direct involvement in financial fraud, while 33.3% accept the senator's version that it was a legitimate attempt to fund a film about his father.
- Political Fallout: 43.3% of Brazilians now associate the Banco Master scandal primarily with "Bolsonaro allies," a sharp shift from earlier months when the issue was more closely linked to the current government in public perception.
LEGAL CHALLENGE
The polling methodology has drawn fire from the Bolsonaro camp. Senator Rogério Marinho announced plans to sue Atlas Intel, alleging the survey "induced" negative responses by playing the leaked audio for participants before they answered questions about the scandal's impact.
Atlas Intel defended its approach, stating the audio was part of an "appendix" played only after the primary election and approval questions were completed.
Despite the controversy, analysts say the "bleeding" of support is a devastating blow to Flávio’s campaign, which had previously been in a dead heat with the incumbent president.
ANALYSIS
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s determination to keep his eldest son, Flávio, as the standard-bearer for the right in the 2026 presidential race is triggering a wave of internal resistance and exposing deep fractures within the "Bolsonarismo" movement.
Political analysts and insiders suggest that while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s support is "melting" in recent polls following a financial scandal, the patriarch’s primary goal remains the preservation of the family’s political monopoly of the far-right in Brazil rather than a guaranteed electoral victory.
A FRAGMENTED FRONT
The insistence on Flávio’s candidacy has alienated key figures within the right-wing spectrum:
- The "New Right" Leaders: Figures such as Congressman Nicolas Ferreira and potential presidential hopefuls like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado are navigating a delicate balance. They cannot openly break with Bolsonaro for fear of alienating his loyal base.
- Internal Rivalries: Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas are reportedly sidelined by the family’s "inner circle," which prioritizes blood relatives over broader political alliances.
THE "POLITICAL MONOPOLY" STRATEGY
In fact, Bolsonaro doesn't want to win the election as much as he wants to keep the monopoly of the right. By imposing his son, Bolsonaro aims to keep the "centrão" (Brazil’s powerful far-right political bloc, deeply focused on political opportunism) and other right-wing factions dependent on his endorsement.
Analysts point out that the movement’s emergence since 2015 was capitalized on by Bolsonaro, but it is not synonymous with him. This creates a paradox: many allies are privately relieved by the family’s legal and political setbacks but remain publicly subservient to maintain their own electoral viability.
RESILIENCE THROUGH ALTERNATIVE NARRATIVES
Despite the Banco Master scandal, where, experts attribute this resilience to the movement’s ability to bypass traditional media and sustain "negationist" narratives through messaging apps like WhatsApp.
Unfortunately, the supporters of Bolsonaro are prone to believe any excuse, pointing to the defense that the funds that Flávio was asking Vorcaro for were "private investments" for a film as a sufficient justification for the core base — this is not true because Bolsonaro-supporting mayors and governors injected billions of public money into Banco Master.
MARKET SKEPTICISM
The tension extends to the financial sector. While parts of the "Faria Lima" (Brazil’s Wall Street) remain aligned with the right, there is growing skepticism regarding Flávio’s administrative capacity and credibility.
While financing a private film is not a crime in Brazil, federal investigators are now probing whether the $24 million (134 million reais) deal for the biopic "Dark Horse" served as a front for illicit financial transfers.
Furthermore, investigators have identified that Marcelo Calixto — an immigration lawyer and manager of the fund — purchased a $630,000 (3.6 million reais) residence in Texas, where Eduardo Bolsonaro currently resides. Brazilian Political Analysts describe these overlapping financial interests as "highly suspicious.
The timing and scale of the payments — totaling 61 million reais in just four months — have led to allegations of pre-campaign slush funds, which is a criminal offense under Brazilian electoral law. The production company of the movie, GOUP Entertainment, has yet to definitively disprove claims that the funds were diverted from the film's actual production costs.
Besides all this, Bolsonaro's crisis management is at its worst. All the responses they give lasts more than 24 hours before being contradicted by new evidence.
Above that, industry comparisons show that the "Dark Horse" budget exceeds that of several recent Oscar-winning films, such as "The Zone of Interest" ($15 million) and "Moonlight," raising further questions about the necessity and destination of the 134 million reais originally negotiated with Vorcaro.
However, without a viable alternative sanctioned by the former president, the right and the far-rigth in Brazil remains locked in a strategy that prioritizes family loyalty over institutional stability and a democratic state governed by the rule of law, especially since Flávio Bolsonaro has already told Folha de S. Paulo that if elected he will release his imprisoned father even if it means going over the Supreme Court by force.
