The updated projections from StoneX show that Brazil will increase its Diesel B consumption by 2% in 2026 compared to the previous year. The consultancy revised its earlier estimate of 70.4 million cubic meters upwards because its improved agricultural forecasts showed better results for soybean production which would increase freight volumes throughout the nation. The larger soybean crop will result in increased truck traffic and fuel consumption throughout Brazil especially in the South where both soybean and corn harvests are experiencing recovery and in the Southeast which benefits from strong agricultural and industrial and extractive exports.
Diesel B — the blend of fossil diesel and biodiesel made from vegetable oils or animal fats sold at fuel stations nationwide — sales in 2025 reached 69.4 million cubic meters according to Agência Nacional do Petróleo Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP) which showed a 3% sales increase from 2024. The biodiesel market showed a consumption increase of 7.4% which reached 9.7 million cubic meters for the year 2020.
The 2026 demand projection for pure fossil diesel which people call Diesel A shows StoneX expects 60.4 million cubic meters of demand which represents a 1% increase from 2025. The 2026 domestic supply forecast expects that imports will provide 29% to 29.3% of domestic supply despite a small production increase.
The consultancy outlined two scenarios for 2026: maintaining the current B15 biodiesel blend throughout the year or raising the mix to B16 from July. The base case of B15 will lead to Diesel A demand which reaches 60.4 million cubic meters. The adoption of B16 during the second half of the year will decrease Diesel A demand to 59.9 million cubic meters with imports reaching approximately 17.3 million cubic meters.
Therefore, biodiesel consumption is forecast to hit another record in Brazil. The B15 blend will create a demand which exceeds 10.4 million cubic meters through an increase of 7.1 percent. The introduction of B16 will lead to a consumption rise which exceeds 10.7 million cubic meters from its current level, thus increasing pressure on domestic soybean oil supplies. The National Energy Policy Council will establish the schedule for biodiesel blend changes.
The analysts from the industry observation say that biodiesel serves an essential function for carbon emission reduction, but its operational effectiveness decreases when users try to increase their blend amounts. The hygroscopic nature of biodiesel means that it absorbs moisture, which results in water accumulation and sediment formation inside fuel tanks after extended storage, thus creating potential engine performance issues.
Experts recommend specialized diesel additives and proper fuel management practices, which include avoiding long-term storage in full tanks, to reduce risks as Brazil develops its biofuel strategy.
