StoneX Raises Brazil Diesel B Demand Forecast for 2026 on Stronger Soy Harvest, Higher Imports Seen

The updated projections from StoneX show that Brazil will increase its Diesel B consumption by 2% in 2026 compared to the previous year. The consultancy revised its earlier estimate of 70.4 million cubic meters upwards because its improved agricultural forecasts showed better results for soybean production which would increase freight volumes throughout the nation. The larger soybean crop will result in increased truck traffic and fuel consumption throughout Brazil especially in the South where both soybean and corn harvests are experiencing recovery and in the Southeast which benefits from strong agricultural and industrial and extractive exports.

Diesel B — the blend of fossil diesel and biodiesel made from vegetable oils or animal fats sold at fuel stations nationwide — sales in 2025 reached 69.4 million cubic meters according to Agência Nacional do Petróleo Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP) which showed a 3% sales increase from 2024. The biodiesel market showed a consumption increase of 7.4% which reached 9.7 million cubic meters for the year 2020. 

The 2026 demand projection for pure fossil diesel which people call Diesel A shows StoneX expects 60.4 million cubic meters of demand which represents a 1% increase from 2025. The 2026 domestic supply forecast expects that imports will provide 29% to 29.3% of domestic supply despite a small production increase. 

The consultancy outlined two scenarios for 2026: maintaining the current B15 biodiesel blend throughout the year or raising the mix to B16 from July. The base case of B15 will lead to Diesel A demand which reaches 60.4 million cubic meters. The adoption of B16 during the second half of the year will decrease Diesel A demand to 59.9 million cubic meters with imports reaching approximately 17.3 million cubic meters.

Therefore, biodiesel consumption is forecast to hit another record in Brazil. The B15 blend will create a demand which exceeds 10.4 million cubic meters through an increase of 7.1 percent. The introduction of B16 will lead to a consumption rise which exceeds 10.7 million cubic meters from its current level, thus increasing pressure on domestic soybean oil supplies. The National Energy Policy Council will establish the schedule for biodiesel blend changes.

The analysts from the industry observation say that biodiesel serves an essential function for carbon emission reduction, but its operational effectiveness decreases when users try to increase their blend amounts. The hygroscopic nature of biodiesel means that it absorbs moisture, which results in water accumulation and sediment formation inside fuel tanks after extended storage, thus creating potential engine performance issues.

Experts recommend specialized diesel additives and proper fuel management practices, which include avoiding long-term storage in full tanks, to reduce risks as Brazil develops its biofuel strategy.

Pump action: Brazil’s green-fuelled ambitions

Brazil has established itself as a global leader in renewable energy production. The country’s energy system, which includes massive hydroelectric dams as well as wind and solar power, along with extensive sugarcane and corn ethanol production and soybean-based biodiesel, serves as a model for nations that still rely heavily on carbon-based fuels. As the global race to decarbonize reaches a critical stage, Brazil continues to achieve new milestones. This week, the National Congress formed a “Coalition for Biofuels” aimed at turning energy transition goals from political discourse into concrete public policies.

The Brazilian Congress chose to pass its decision at the week Toyota announced its first global research center about biofuels which will be established in Sorocaba, São Paulo. The automaker plans to invest BRL 11.5 billion in the country until 2030 through this initiative which will create 40 engineering positions to develop technologies that will decrease vehicle greenhouse gas emissions. Toyota has selected a hybrid flex-fuel engine strategy which combines ethanol and biomethane because the company believes these two technologies will provide environmentally friendly solutions in agricultural and industrial applications while its competitors pursue complete electrification.

The environmental advocacy group 

The coalition which received support from multiple parliamentary organizations and leading agricultural companies functions as more than a discussion platform. The organization needs to manage the "Future Fuel Law" (Combustível do Futuro) which serves as Brazil's main environmental legislation for the transportation sector. The coalition's leader Arnaldo Jardim who has worked in agribusiness advocacy describes the current situation as an emergency situation which needs immediate treatment. For Mr Jardim and his colleagues, biofuels are not merely an environmental boon but a "strategic vector" for national development.

Street driving regulations

Investors consider predictable results to be their most important requirement. The coalition wants to establish a "growth curve" for renewable energy sources through its long-term plan which will gradually decrease fossil fuel usage. The process involves more than just establishing objectives. The Future Fuel Law aims to ensure that the transition is not subject to the whims of changing administrations, providing the legal security needed to unlock long-term capital in the agro-industrial sector.

Protecting the patch

The coalition’s agenda is as much about protectionism as it is about the planet. The organization intends to prohibit or considerably decrease biodiesel imports as its first task because this measure will create a market where only domestic manufacturers can sell their products. The group aims to establish a self-sustaining system through its efforts to connect energy production with industrial activities and agricultural practices. The environmental case is compelling, biodiesel can cut greenhouse-gas emissions by almost 80% compared with its fossil-fuelled cousin, but the economic logic of supporting a homegrown industry is equally persuasive in the halls of Congress.

Global ambitions

Brazil also aims to become a worldwide leader in the green-fuel revolution by establishing a strong regulatory framework. The proposed creation of a National Fund for Energy Transition suggests that the government is willing to put its money where its mouth is. Brazil will establish itself as a pioneer in sustainable development instead of following global sustainability trends if the coalition achieves its objectives. Brasília is making a significant investment in pump technology because it sees this as a crucial element in the worldwide energy transition process.

Ultracargo Expands Rail Logistics for Biofuels Between Brazil’s Midwest and Southeast

BRL 95 million investment strengthens ethanol transport corridor, cuts costs, and improves rail efficiency between MT and SP

Ultracargo has started operations of a new rail siding at its terminal in Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso, reinforcing one of Brazil’s most strategic logistics corridors for biofuels and petroleum products. The BRL 95 million investment strengthens integration between the Midwest and Southeast regions and significantly expands the company’s operational capacity.

The four-kilometer rail siding connects the terminal directly to the regional rail network and allows the operation of trains with up to 80 railcars. The project improves the flow of biofuels,  especially corn ethanol produced in Mato Grosso, toward major consumption and distribution hubs in São Paulo.

The new infrastructure enables a highly efficient return-freight model. Trains that deliver petroleum products to Mato Grosso now return to the Southeast loaded with biofuels, reducing empty runs and lowering overall logistics costs. The shift also supports the partial migration from road to rail transport, increasing reliability and efficiency over long distances.

With the project, Ultracargo’s Rondonópolis terminal now has an annual handling capacity of up to 3 million cubic meters. The investment also included the expansion of storage capacity by 15,000 cubic meters with two new ethanol tanks, as well as upgrades to rail and truck loading platforms. These improvements have reduced the logistics cycle between Mato Grosso and São Paulo by up to two days.

The rail expansion also brings environmental gains. By reducing long-haul trucking, Ultracargo estimates a reduction of approximately 51,000 tons of carbon emissions per year, around 35% lower emissions along the corridor.

The project gains further relevance through its connection with Ultracargo’s rail siding in Paulínia, São Paulo, completed in June 2025. The integration links Rondonópolis directly to the Opla terminal, a joint venture with BP, supporting the growing demand of Brazil’s sugar-energy sector and ensuring continuous fuel supply.

Ultracargo is Brazil’s largest independent liquid bulk storage company, operating integrated logistics solutions for fuels, biofuels, chemicals and vegetable oils across multiple transport modes nationwide.