Focus Survey indicates positive Brazilian financial market expectations for Brazilian economy despite the risk of a global economy crisis

According to Reuters, the market's expectation for growth in the Brazilian economy has risen again for 2019 and 2020. The Focus survey released today by the Central Bank indicates that Brazilian economists have come to see the possibility of growth in GDP. 0.83% in 2019 and 2.20% in 2020, compared to 0.81% and 2.10% respectively in the previous week.

This reading seems to be detached from global and regional reality. In the world last week was marked by fear of the world going into recession; In Argentina, the economy minister fell and the current president Mauricio Macri, with fear of losing the elections, decided to adopt a completely populist agenda in the economy.

It will be very difficult for Brazil's economy to grow, which Focus indicates today if these scenarios of global recession and the certainty of the continuing crisis in Argentina, Brazil's main regional economic partner, are confirmed.

Again, as when the election of Jair Bolsonaro occurred, the Brazilian financial market takes a stance much more closely linked to political ideology than the rational readiness of global and regional economic indicators.