Monday, 25 May 2020

The Brazilian financial market shows how much it is a segment that is completely detached from the reality of the country by simply disregarding the disastrous conduct of Bolsonaro's government in the fight against COVID-19 and the country's unprecedented political crisis

The disclosure of the video of the ministerial meeting in which President Jair Bolsonaro and several of his ministers committed, according to several jurists, crimes, including defending the arrest of ministers of the Supreme Court, was positively received by the Brazilian financial market.

As I had already written here, on August 27, 2019, by "betting on a possible liberal agenda of the then-the financial market was one of the biggest supporters of Jair Bolsonaro's candidacy".  

After the election, the Brazilian financial market has completely disregarded the fact that Bolsonaro's "government was largely unable to organize and lead the political debate around a reformist agenda. In fact, the statements of Bolsonaro and Guedes did more harm than good in assisting the approval work of the Social Security Reform. The main architect of this reform was the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, who at various times collided with Bolsonaro and even Paulo Guedes".

This assessment, completely mistaken in my view, continues today amid the chaos caused by COVID-19 and the political catastrophe of the crises that surround the current government, which no longer hides its anti-democratic intentions. The market continues to understand that the fact that Economy Minister Paulo Guedes is considered a strong name in the government is a positive thing. The problem is that Guedes, who is a liberal with an agenda considered outdated even by liberal economists like Monica de Bolle, will be forced now to adopt policies that he has been opposed to for a lifetime.

Several financial market analysts believe the Environment Minister's calling for environmental deregulation while public distracted by COVID and Guedes saying that the suspension of server readjustments is "grenade in the enemy's pocket", during this meeting, are the representation of liberal values!

This represents how ideological the assessment that a large part of the Brazilian financial market makes of the current government, which obviously undermines immensely a pragmatic analysis of what is really happening to the Brazilian economy.

Of the meeting that was released by the courts, only the attacks on China by members of the government, including the president himself, concern part of the Brazilian financial market.

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