Brazilian services sector closed the second quarter of 2020 with a fall of 15.4%, according to IBGE

 The services sector, the most important in the Brazilian economy, ended the second quarter of 2020 with a decrease of 15.4%, according to the Brazilian Institute of Statistical Geography (IBGE).

The sector was hit hard by the pandemic of the new coronavirus, since some of its main activities had to close its doors due to social isolation measures, such as bars and restaurants, gyms and beauty salons.

In June, the services sector recovered. The sector grew 5% in June, influenced by the easing of social isolation, but even so, the accumulated result is still at a level 24% below the peak of the historical series, recorded in November 2014.

Jornal Nacional, most-watched broadcast news program in Brazil, points possible reasons for Bolsonaro's impeachment

The Jornal Nacional, in its edition today, cited article 196 of the Brazilian Constitution, which recognizes the right of all citizens to health. The television program also cited Article 6 of the Brazilian Constitution, which states that health is a social right.

In addition, it was explained by the Jornal Nacional tv anchors that it is a crime of responsibility to violate social law according to Law 1,079 / 1950, in Articles 7 and 9.

Today, according to Al Jazeera website, "Brazil's coronavirus deaths have surpassed 100,000 deaths five months after the first reported case in a sign that the country has not contained the deadly disease".

While Brazil reaches half a million cases of COVID-19, with almost thirty thousand deaths, the country remains without a health minister and the president Bolsonaro rides a horse amid a demonstration as if nothing had happened

According to a survey carried out by the independent health data platform Functional Health Techo, the next July 6th will be the peak of contamination by COVID-19 in Brazil. On that date, the country will reach 1.78 million people with the coronavirus. This number, however, does not account for the cases of people recovered or who died.

According to the figures released by the state's health departments, Brazil currently has 514,992 cases of the new coronavirus (Sars-CoV-2), with 29,341 deaths, thus passing France in the number of deaths.

In the midst of this unprecedented health crisis, Brazil remains without a Minister of Health, a portfolio that is currently occupied temporarily by a military man who is not a doctor and has no experience in the area of public health. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, on the other hand, rode out on horseback to participate in a demonstration by supporters in Brasília.

Without a mask, Bolsonaro also greeted people crowded over the protective fence in the act in defense of his government. Thousands of people, many without protection (mask), gathered in front of the government headquarters.

Crisis: Brazil closes more than one million formal jobs in April and March 2020, according to Caged

Information released today by the New General Register of Employed and Unemployed (Caged), of the Minsitério do Trabalho do Brasil, points to a drastic drop in the number of hires in the country was the main responsible for the negative balance of formal jobs in the first four months of 2020 in Brazil. 1,1 million formal jobs were closed in Brazil in March and April 2020, according to figures from the General Register of Jobs and Unemployed (Caged) released today by the Ministry of Economy.

In April of 2019, Caged had a positive balance of 129,601 formal jobs, resulting from 1,374,628 admissions and 1,245,071 dismissals. In the same month in 2020, there were 598,596 hires and the number of dismissals reached 1,459,099, generating a negative result of 860,503 vacancies closed.

According to the newspaper O Globo, this result is, "by far, the worst data for job creation in Brazil since 1992, when the Caged historical series began. Before, the worst data had been recorded in 1992, when the country closed 142 thousand jobs in those two months".

These frightening figures show the impact of the pandemic, the current and profound national political crisis, and the complete lack of direction of the federal government, which has been going for two weeks without a Health Minister in the midst of a health crisis without precedent. Thus, the Brazilian labor market suffers one of the strongest strokes in the country's history.

The Brazilian financial market shows how much it is a segment that is completely detached from the reality of the country by simply disregarding the disastrous conduct of Bolsonaro's government in the fight against COVID-19 and the country's unprecedented political crisis

The disclosure of the video of the ministerial meeting in which President Jair Bolsonaro and several of his ministers committed, according to several jurists, crimes, including defending the arrest of ministers of the Supreme Court, was positively received by the Brazilian financial market.

As I had already written here, on August 27, 2019, by "betting on a possible liberal agenda of the then-the financial market was one of the biggest supporters of Jair Bolsonaro's candidacy".  

After the election, the Brazilian financial market has completely disregarded the fact that Bolsonaro's "government was largely unable to organize and lead the political debate around a reformist agenda. In fact, the statements of Bolsonaro and Guedes did more harm than good in assisting the approval work of the Social Security Reform. The main architect of this reform was the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, who at various times collided with Bolsonaro and even Paulo Guedes".

This assessment, completely mistaken in my view, continues today amid the chaos caused by COVID-19 and the political catastrophe of the crises that surround the current government, which no longer hides its anti-democratic intentions. The market continues to understand that the fact that Economy Minister Paulo Guedes is considered a strong name in the government is a positive thing. The problem is that Guedes, who is a liberal with an agenda considered outdated even by liberal economists like Monica de Bolle, will be forced now to adopt policies that he has been opposed to for a lifetime.

Several financial market analysts believe the Environment Minister's calling for environmental deregulation while public distracted by COVID and Guedes saying that the suspension of server readjustments is "grenade in the enemy's pocket", during this meeting, are the representation of liberal values!

This represents how ideological the assessment that a large part of the Brazilian financial market makes of the current government, which obviously undermines immensely a pragmatic analysis of what is really happening to the Brazilian economy.

Of the meeting that was released by the courts, only the attacks on China by members of the government, including the president himself, concern part of the Brazilian financial market.

Deforestation in the Amazon, in April 2020, is the highest in the last 10 years; number of COVID-19 cases grows among Indigenous peoples

The deforestation area in the Amazon rainforest increased by 171% in April 2020 compared to the same month in 2019. Of this area, one-third of the entire area is concentrated in the state of Pará.

According to Anfavea (National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers), crawler tractors, the main instrument of deforestation in the Amazon, between January and April 2020 set a sales record for the last 5 years. Therefore, deforestation continues to enrich various sectors of the Brazilian economy, who work illegally or take advantage of the current government's lack of supervision to destroy the forest and earn money from it. Some of the tractors used in deforestation can cost up to one million reais.

Jair Bolsonaro's government, since its beginning in 2019, has been trying to hinder the destruction of machines learned during Ibama operations (Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources).

In total, in April 2020, 529 km² were deforested. The data are from Imazon's Deforestation Alert System (SAD). Ten municipalities were responsible for more than half of deforestation in the Amazon in April. Altamira and São Félix do Xingu, in Pará, and Apuí, in Amazonas, are at the top of that list.

Indigenous people

At least 23 Indigenous people died as a result of Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus. Several associations and representatives of the original peoples have, since the arrival of the virus in the country, been warning about the degree of vulnerability of Indigenous communities across the country.

The destruction of the forest also affects the Yanomami and Raposa Serra do Sol Indigenous Lands, in the Amazon. They are among the most deforested and also appear among the most vulnerable to Covid-19, according to a survey by ISA (Instituto Socioambiental).

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's speech on national network scares investors

According to the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper, President Jair Bolsonaro's speech distorted the global scenario about Covid-19. According to the newspaper, the president "criticized the closure of schools and commerce, contradicted guidelines from health agencies and attacked governors".

For Alexandre Almeida, from CM Capital, the statement by President Jair Bolsonaro may scare investors because of his lack of connection with reality.

These statements immediately provoked repudiation by congressmen, governors, in the Judiciary and in different sectors of society. A few minutes later, the president of the Brazilian Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, released an official note stating that "Brazil needs serious leadership, responsible and committed to the life and health of the population".

The president's speech is the main subject of Brazilian newspapers today: O Estado de S. Paulo states that Bolsonaro criticizes confinement and wants stores and schools open; O Globo publishes that Bolsonaro ignores the world orientation and criticizes isolation and closed schools; Correio Braziliense reports that speech caused perplexity.

Fed cuts interest rates and Covid-19 may lead Brazilian Central Bank to rethink monetary policy and cut interest rates again in Brazil

The Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to cut interest rates led the Brazilian Central Bank to practically discard the minutes of the institution's last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). In it, the Brazilian Central Bank indicated the end of the process of cutting the basic interest rate (Selic), which currently stands at 4.25% per year, the lowest level in the country's history.

Yesterday, the Brazilian Central Bank issued a new note in which it indicates that the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) may reduce the interest rate again. This change in Brazilian monetary policy intends to further slow the country's economy, mainly due to the unfolding of the economic crisis generated by the new coronavirus (Covid-19).

Meanwhile, in Brazil, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes insists on long-term reforms (pension reform, administrative reform, and tax reform) to combat short-term economic issues (coronavirus and Fed interest rate cuts).

Concurrently, in Brazil, rains on the coast of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro cause the death of 19 people and leave hundreds homeless. The labor market in Brazil, according to IBGE, continues to break records in the growth of informality. For this reason, according to the IBGE, "since 2016, the country has shown a drop in the proportion of the employed population that contributes to a social security institute". This may result in the effects of the Pension Reform not having the results expected by the government.

Confirmation of a Coronavirus case (Covid-19) and president Jair Bolsonaro endorsing anti-democracy protests are the subjects of the most important Brazilian newspapers

The newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo states that the stock market falls 7% after the arrival of the coronavirus in Brazil. The Valor Econômico newspaper reports that coronavirus drops the stock market and companies lose R $ 260 billion. O Globo publishes that the arrival of coronavirus in Brazil causes the stock market to plummet 7% and Correio Braziliense reports that coronavirus causes losses of R$ 290 billion in just one day.

According to The New York Times, "a 61-year-old São Paulo man who returned recently from a business trip to Italy has tested positive for the coronavirus, Brazilian health officials said on Wednesday (26.02.2020), confirming the first known case in Latin America and sending a shudder through the entire region".

In addition, there is a huge criticism of President Jair Bolsonaro by a large part of the media, politicians, leaders of civil society institutions and members of the STF (Supreme Federal Court), such as Judge Celso de Mello, who said that " Bolsonaro is not up to the job if he supported an act against Congress".

According to The Guardian, "Jair Bolsonaro’s apparent endorsement of protests designed to cow Brazil’s democratic institutions has sparked outrage across the political spectrum with one lawmaker warning of a return to the dark days of dictatorship if the demonstrations are not opposed".