Showing posts with label Paulo Guedes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paulo Guedes. Show all posts

Monday, 25 May 2020

The Brazilian financial market shows how much it is a segment that is completely detached from the reality of the country by simply disregarding the disastrous conduct of Bolsonaro's government in the fight against COVID-19 and the country's unprecedented political crisis

The disclosure of the video of the ministerial meeting in which President Jair Bolsonaro and several of his ministers committed, according to several jurists, crimes, including defending the arrest of ministers of the Supreme Court, was positively received by the Brazilian financial market.

As I had already written here, on August 27, 2019, by "betting on a possible liberal agenda of the then-the financial market was one of the biggest supporters of Jair Bolsonaro's candidacy".  

After the election, the Brazilian financial market has completely disregarded the fact that Bolsonaro's "government was largely unable to organize and lead the political debate around a reformist agenda. In fact, the statements of Bolsonaro and Guedes did more harm than good in assisting the approval work of the Social Security Reform. The main architect of this reform was the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, who at various times collided with Bolsonaro and even Paulo Guedes".

This assessment, completely mistaken in my view, continues today amid the chaos caused by COVID-19 and the political catastrophe of the crises that surround the current government, which no longer hides its anti-democratic intentions. The market continues to understand that the fact that Economy Minister Paulo Guedes is considered a strong name in the government is a positive thing. The problem is that Guedes, who is a liberal with an agenda considered outdated even by liberal economists like Monica de Bolle, will be forced now to adopt policies that he has been opposed to for a lifetime.

Several financial market analysts believe the Environment Minister's calling for environmental deregulation while public distracted by COVID and Guedes saying that the suspension of server readjustments is "grenade in the enemy's pocket", during this meeting, are the representation of liberal values!

This represents how ideological the assessment that a large part of the Brazilian financial market makes of the current government, which obviously undermines immensely a pragmatic analysis of what is really happening to the Brazilian economy.

Of the meeting that was released by the courts, only the attacks on China by members of the government, including the president himself, concern part of the Brazilian financial market.

Wednesday, 4 March 2020

Fed cuts interest rates and Covid-19 may lead Brazilian Central Bank to rethink monetary policy and cut interest rates again in Brazil

The Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to cut interest rates led the Brazilian Central Bank to practically discard the minutes of the institution's last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). In it, the Brazilian Central Bank indicated the end of the process of cutting the basic interest rate (Selic), which currently stands at 4.25% per year, the lowest level in the country's history.

Yesterday, the Brazilian Central Bank issued a new note in which it indicates that the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) may reduce the interest rate again. This change in Brazilian monetary policy intends to further slow the country's economy, mainly due to the unfolding of the economic crisis generated by the new coronavirus (Covid-19).

Meanwhile, in Brazil, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes insists on long-term reforms (pension reform, administrative reform, and tax reform) to combat short-term economic issues (coronavirus and Fed interest rate cuts).

Concurrently, in Brazil, rains on the coast of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro cause the death of 19 people and leave hundreds homeless. The labor market in Brazil, according to IBGE, continues to break records in the growth of informality. For this reason, according to the IBGE, "since 2016, the country has shown a drop in the proportion of the employed population that contributes to a social security institute". This may result in the effects of the Pension Reform not having the results expected by the government.

Thursday, 30 January 2020

Jair Bolsonaro's government promises a deficit in 2019 of between R$ 70 billion and R$ 80 billion, but the government ended last year with a primary deficit of R$ 95.1 billion

According to the newspaper Correio Braziliense, data released by the National Treasury show that the deficit recorded last year is R $ 43.9 billion less than the target forecast for 2019, which was a negative result of R $ 139 billion. The result is also 23.7% better than in 2018 when the gap reached R $ 120 billion. However, the gap was much larger than the government had promised.

Jair Bolsonaro's government had promised a deficit in 2019 between R$ 70 billion and R$ 80 billion, but the government ended last year with a primary deficit of R$ 95.1 billion, that is, more than 15 billion above the government's forecast.

Despite the result being the best since 2014 after Economy Minister Paulo announced that the deficit in 2019 was expected to be R$ 80 billion. Then, Mansueto Almeida, secretary of the Treasury, even said that the 2019 deficit would be R$ 70 billion. For this reason, the final result is frustrating, if we consider the communications of the registry and the secretary. Therefore, this government's inability to communicate with the media can worsen even when the results are not so bad.

Friday, 10 January 2020

After public pressure government gives up to tax solar energy in Brazil

Aneel (National Electric Energy Agency), the body that regulates the electric power sector in Brazil, wanted to change the current rule, which allows solar energy produced by those who have solar panels at home or in the company to be returned to the grid. Those who do this get discounts on their electric bills.

Therefore, according to the current rules for solar energy generation for own consumption in Brazil, the operation is simple: who produces more energy than it spends throws this surplus in the distribution network and gets the credits. Those who produce less than spend pay the difference to the distributor.

Aneel's proposal, defended by Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, has been the target of numerous criticisms. The public pressure was so great that President Jair Bolsonaro, Mayor Rodrigo Maia and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre publicly made a commitment not to change the rules on solar energy production in Brazil.

Aneel argues that those who receive this benefit are receiving subsidies, but, according to journalist Elio Gaspari, there would be subsidy "if the citizen consumed R$100 of kilowatts and only paid R$ 90. In this case, who has solar energy panels paid to distributors to the last penny for the energy it consumes".

The change in rules advocated by Aneel could increase the taxation of those who have solar panels by up to 60%, which for most experts could represent a huge setback for the area.

Thursday, 9 January 2020

Brazilian industrial production falls 1.2% in November 2019, according to IBGE

Industrial production in Brazil fell 1.2% in November 2019 compared to October of the same year. This downfall interrupted the upward sequence of the previous three months.

According to IBGE, this is the worst November since 2015, when the industry fell 1.9%, according to the Monthly Industrial Survey, released today (01/09).

There was a reduction in the production of 16 of the 26 surveyed activities. The 1.2% drop eliminates part of the accumulated 2.2% expansion from August to October 2019. With these results, the Brazilian industrial sector is 17.1% below the record level reached in May 2011.

This indicates that many of Brazil's macroeconomic conditions have not changed sufficiently for the current optimism of the government's economic area (Paulo Guedes has even said that the private sector in Brazil could grow by 3% by 2020) and for many economic analysts in the Brazilian media.

In fact, industrial growth in Brazil will be very difficult without strong growth in the rest of the world. Brazil also needs to reverse the country's huge productivity gap.

Friday, 29 November 2019

Cost of living in Brazil: beef and gasoline prices soar

Completely insensitive to the difficulties of the poorest population, currently half of the Brazilian population with R$ 413,00 per month (about 100 dollars), the Minister of Agriculture, Tereza Cristina, told the website Poder360 that the "Brazilian consumer should get used to the increase. in the price of meat in recent months ". The high of this product since January 2019 was 5% to 26%, depending on the cut of meat.

The rising price of meat is being produced mainly due to rising Chinese demand, mainly after the swine fever led to the loss of 40% of the country's pork herd. For this reason, China started to buy more beef from many countries, including Brazil. This helped drive up prices.

Another central product for any economy that is experiencing high prices is gasoline. In recent weeks Petrobras has authorized a series of increases in the price of gasoline in refineries.

To make matters worse, the rise in the dollar price should also increase the prices of medicines in Brazil. This is because countless medications, although produced in Brazil, use imported inputs. The high dollar will make these inputs more expensive. As a result, laboratories will be under pressure on costs and will certainly pass on the dollar increase to consumers.

The US currency is on the rise after Brazil's Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said the advance of the US currency is not a concern. The US currency, in recent months, jumped from R$ 3.70, July 18, to R$ 4.24, on November 26, and has remained at that level since then.

Wednesday, 27 November 2019

Another unfortunate statement by Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes raises the dollar and demands intervention by the Brazilian Central Bank in the foreign exchange market

Tension in the foreign exchange market in Brazil is the headline of today's leading Brazilian newspapers (27.10.2019). The newspaper O Estado de São Paulo states that the high dollar brings uncertainty about prices in Brazil and the continuation of interest rate cuts adopted by the Central Bank in the last weeks. The newspaper Valor Econômico informs that Guedes's statements made the dollar rise and forced the Central Bank to take action. Finally, the newspaper O Globo states that Guedes's statements about exchange rates led the dollar to rise to R$ 4.24 in Brazil.

In addition to Guedes' absurd statement about the AI-5, Brazil's Economy Minister also said, according to Correio Brasiliense, that he is not worried about the dollar over R$ 4.20. According to Guedes, "It's good to get used to the higher exchange rates and lower interest rates for a long time."

According to Correio Brasiliense, "in the last five months, the Brazilian international reserves have reduced by US$ 22.7 billion and in the last 12 months, have left the country US $ 40 billion".

A report produced by Swiss bank UBS indicates that, if annualized, the outflow of dollars over the past three months would total $ 75 billion. According to the latest data available from the Central Bank, the volume of international reserves totaled US$ 369.8 billion on November 18, before the interventions made today by the Central Bank to contain the currency hike.

Tuesday, 26 November 2019

Statement by Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, in Washington, about AI-5 is disastrous, irresponsible and very bad for the Brazilian economy, as it alienates potential investors

In a completely irresponsible speech, Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes stated, according to Folha de S.Paulo, that it is not possible to be frightened by the idea of someone asking for AI-5 in the face of a possible radicalization of street protests in Brazil.

According to the Correio, he defended the deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PSL-SP), son of President Jair Bolsonaro, who considered the implementation of a similar act in cases of protests against the current government. According to Guedes, the speech was "a reaction to what he called summons from the left."

Guedes' irresponsible declaration generates political instability in the country and acts against the economic reforms that Guedes himself intends to make. Jair Bolsonaro's own members are largely to blame for the country's ongoing political crisis, as they constantly give statements such as these that put the nation in a political crisis.

This and countless other statements by senior government officials are obviously bad for business and economic stability because no one invests in an unstable country, where the minister of economics talks about ending rights and abolishing democracy. Paulo Guedes, who calls himself a liberal, is actually much closer to Latin American dictators like Pinochet and Maduro.

The AI-5 was the Brazilian military regime's hardest blow to the rights of Brazilian citizens. Set up on December 13, 1968, during the rule of General Costa e Silva, it was the most complete expression of the dictatorship, as it allowed the military to arbitrarily punish any Brazilian citizen considered an enemy of the regime.

It institutionalized the annulment of mandates of opposition deputies, suspended political rights and promoted layoffs and forced retirements of anti-regime civil servants. The AI-5 allowed the closing of the National Congress and other legislative houses of the country indefinitely. Since the establishment of AI-5, repression of opponents and torture practices have resurfaced in Brazil. It was the beginning of the terrible Years of Lead.


Thursday, 14 November 2019

Economy Minister Paulo Guedes says Brazil and China are negotiating the creation of a free trade area

Brazil and China have begun negotiations, according to Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, about the possibility of establishing a free trade area between the two countries.

The Brazilian minister said the negotiations are at an early stage. However, under the rules of Mercosur, a group of which Brazil is part, member countries of this bloc cannot individually enter into bilateral agreements involving tariff elimination.

For Guedes, these negotiations are to make Brazil "integrate into global chains".

Paradoxically, President Jair Bolsonaro, who was a harsh critic of China during the 2018 campaign, now seems very keen to get closer to the communist nation. After meeting in Brasilia with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Bolsonaro said the Asian giant "is part of Brazil's future."

This week, the governments of Brazil and China sign nine acts of cooperation. Both advocate a closer approach between the two nations in technology. Brazil will export agribusiness expertise to the Chinese, while China, according to the Brazilian Infrastructure minister Tarcisio de Freitas, may take part in auctions for two railroads in Brazil.

Tuesday, 5 November 2019

Completely disconnected from the Brazilian reality, Paulo Guedes, Brazil's economy minister, complains about the country's poor because they do not save money

About to submit an economic package, Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes gave an interview to the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, which President Jair Bolsonaro said he would cancel the signatures made by government agencies and the same newspaper that the president accuses to be one of the hyenas that attack the government.

In Paulo Guedes's interview with Folha de S.Paulo, the minister's complete disconnection from the reality of most Brazilians is evident.

Guedes, speaking in his interview that "the rich capitalize on their resources. The poor consume everything," shows that he simply cannot understand the Brazilian reality. This complete disconnect coupled with the inability to interpret shows that the minister is simply saying that our savings problem lies in the fact that the poor do not spare. It is a mixture of lack of empathy and ignorance.

Only a completely unprepared economist does not realize how terrible it is to claim that Brazilian probes do not spare. In 2019, in Brazil, the poorest 50% live with 413 reais per month (about 100 dollars). How those people are going to save money?

In the current Brazilian reality, of high unemployment and increased informality, about 104 million Brazilians live with the equivalent of half a minimum wage, currently at 998.00 reais.

According to economist Monica de Bolle, "It is well established - and almost tautological - that the poor are more likely to consume than the rich." According to her, "the reason is not that they undertake little, but that the resources they have are often enough just to reach the end of the month. Often not even that."

Tuesday, 10 September 2019

Paulo Guedes, Brazil economy minister, says he plans to create new CPMF, a tax capable to collect up to 150 billion

In an interview with Valor Econômico newspaper, Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes announced that the country will have a new tax along the lines of the former CMPF (Provisional Contribution on Financial Movement).

The announcement is a kind of electoral fraud because Jair Bolsonaro, during the presidential campaign, promised not to recreate the tax, including calling it "disgrace" and "damn".

In the interview, Guedes said he would propose rates of 0.2% to 1% on each transaction, but it would be up to Congress to set the size of the tax. 

Another criticism about the new tax is its fate. According to Guedes, the new CPMF will have a rate of 0.2% to 1% and may raise R$ 150 billion. The old CPMF was created to increase the health budget but was not used for this purpose. Now the new tax does not even have this varnish.

The evident contradiction of government that claims to be neoliberal, but creates taxes to increase revenue. The tax, if created, will have a ripple effect and will produce distortions in the productive structure.

Several liberal-biased movements that were supporting the government are already criticizing the move. Liberal think tank Ilisp has already stated in his Twitter account that he will campaign against the new tax.

Tuesday, 27 August 2019

Brazilian financial market contaminated by the Bolsonaro effect

The Ibovespa index fell below 100,000 points in the last days and the dollar surpassed R $ 4,00. The current picture of volatility amid trade uncertainties and Bolsonaro's worsening in president and government approval polls.

Today, the dollar had risen to R$ 4.18 for the first time since September 2018. Currency buys gained momentum after Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto said, according to Reuters, that the recent devaluation exchange rate is within the normal pattern.

Paradoxically, the financial market was one of the biggest supporters of Jair Bolsonaro's candidacy. Betting on a possible liberal agenda of the then-candidate. In coming to power, Bolsonaro put Paulo Guedes, a liberal in charge of the economy, but his government was largely unable to organize and lead the political debate around a reformist agenda. In fact, the statements of Bolsonaro and Guedes did more harm than good in assisting the approval work of the Social Security Reform. The main architect of this reform was the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, who at various times collided with Bolsonaro and even Paulo Guedes.

Now, many analysts believe that the Bolsonaro government can repeat what happened to another liberal government in South America. Mauricio Macri's Argentina was the scene of a liberal who was unable to put into practice the reformist agenda at the right speed. Now, Macri, who has taken many populist measures in recent months, must lose the election to candidate to more developmental agenda.

To make matters worse, the publication of complaints against Mayor Rodrigo Maia helped increase the tension in the markets.

Thursday, 15 August 2019

The financial market in Brazil closes down for the second day in a row; Ibovespa (IBOV), B3's main index, falls below 100,000 points

The Ibovespa closed down today. The index closed the day at 99.056 points, but the drop during the day reached the level of 2%. However, at the end of the day, the index fell 1.2%.

The day on the Bovespa was marked by investors selling stocks and looking for safer assets. It was a flight to quality movement.

Global risk aversion, fearing a new economic recession, has forced the Brazilian Central Bank, for the first time since the 2009 crisis, to announce that it is going into cash to control the rise in the US currency. The Brazilian Central Bank has also announced that it will offer foreign exchange swap contracts.

Today, at an event promoted by BancoSantander in São Paulo, the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, minimized global economic adversity. He said that he had no fear of being swallowed by the international market and that Brazil did not need Argentina to grow its economy.

In fact, the crisis in Argentina has affected and continues to affect the Brazilian economy. Guedes's phrase shows a mixture of arrogance and unpreparedness for the post of Minister of Economy.

The crisis in Argentina, Brazil's third-largest trading partner, affects everything from the Brazilian tourism industry to bus, beer and steel companies. To say that Brazil does not need Argentina is to ignore how the Brazilian economy works.

Monday, 12 August 2019

Brazil enters in "technical recession" after disclosure of preview of the first quarter of 2019 GDP made today by the Brazilian Central Bank

The Brazilian economy registered a retraction of 0.13% in the second quarter of 2019, according to the Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) released by the Brazilian Central Bank today. This puts the country in a "technical recession" framework "when you have two quarters in a row of economic contraction i.e. our economy shrinks and things go south."

This index is a preview of GDP, which will be released on August 29 by the Central Bank. The 0.13% decline reported today occurred between April and June 2019 compared to the first quarter of the same year.

The Brazilian Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, said today at an event held at the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) that it is not possible to blame the current government for the economic performance of the country.

According to the newspaper Correio Braziliense, Guedes said that "It is still a short time for the government with liberal policies in the economy to present results."


Thursday, 25 July 2019

Economists believe that releasing just R$ 500 per person at FGTS will culminate in another chicken flight to the Brazilian economy

The release of about R $ 30 billion should be positive, but it should not change much the scenario of economic growth of Brazilian GDP in 2019. Overall, the forecast revisions for GDP in 2019 were very marginal. Nothing very expressive. Most analysts point to a growth of about 0.8% of GDP in 2019, ie very small.

For the former president of BNDES and former Minister of Communications, economist and engineer Luiz Carlos Mendonça de Barros, the measures presented by the government are timid to leverage the Brazilian GDP.

Economy Minister Paulo Guedes himself said in early June 2019 that releasing FGTS money before pension reform would be a “chicken flight”. Now, even though the pension reform is not fully approved, the government decides to adopt the measure.

Yesterday, during the measure's presentation ceremony, Guedes said the FGTS withdrawal will be a permanent income, not "chicken flight," as he himself had said.

For Maranhão Governor Flávio Dino, the "release of the FGTS is a good measure, but it is a trickle in the ocean of national recession."

Dino believes that “the expansion of public works is urgent. It is an emergency debt relief program to improve demand. There are ways. But we need to focus on Brazil. ”

Dino thus criticizes the policy of the current government, which is openly aimed at pleasing the international bond market.

Flavio Dino was verbally attacked by President Bolsonaro during a private conversation with the Chief Minister of the House, Onyx Lorenzoni, captured by TV microphones a few days ago.

Wednesday, 24 July 2019

UN hunger fight projects resources halted due to lack of approval from the Brazilian Ministry of Economy; Fight against hunger in Brazil suffers from the government of a president who insists that this problem does not exist or is very small in the country

Brazil has over 45 million dollars in hunger-fighting projects that are stalled. These resources could finance projects through the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the UN agency to fight rural poverty and hunger. Investments, however, have not been halted since 2018 due to lack of approval by the foreign finance commission of the Ministry of Economy led by Paulo Guedes.

The main difficulty in allowing the release is the Union's inability to repay, which cannot be a guarantor of loans.

On July 19, at a coffee shop with international correspondents in Brasilia, President Jair Bolsonaro said that Brazil did not suffer from the problem of hunger. On the same day, Brazil's president's statement on hunger in the country was rebutted by data and experts.

In this coffee, with the journalists, Bolsonaro said: "Talking about starving in Brazil is a big lie". Later that day, pressured by the flood of criticism he received inside and outside the country, Bolsonaro turned back and said only a "small part" of the population suffered from hunger. In fact, more than 5 million people suffer from the scourge of hunger in Brazil.

However, the UN Food and Nutrition Security Outlook Panorama Report 2018, released in November by the UN, showed the rise in hunger in Brazil. The study estimated that malnutrition reached up to 5.2 million Brazilians between 2015 and 2017, compared to the 5.1 million estimated for the three years 2014-2016 and 2013-2015. In the 2000-2002 triennium, 18.8 million Brazilians suffered from hunger. 

This meaningless debate started by the president is a catastrophe for the hunger control programs in Brazil. Meanwhile, other less urgent projects are being tabled by this government, for example the decree to facilitate gun possession or the project that eliminates fines for transporting children without car seats or starting studies to include the terms "father" and "mother" rather than "parents" in the fields intended for membership in the Brazilian passport documentation.

Meanwhile, major resources for fighting hunger in the countryside have been stalled since 2018 because the country has not paid back a loan to the Union.

This indicates that the current government does not know what the country's real priorities are and continues to spend time and resources on debates that are completely innocuous.

Wednesday, 17 July 2019

Although he proclaims himself liberal, Paulo Guedes, the economy minister of the Brazilian government, studies liberating up to 35% of the FGTS to stimulate the economy

The idea is to give money to the population for it to warm the economy. This proposal of heterodox shock, in the best Keynesian model, is of the ultra-liberal Paulo Guedes.

In addition to the release of the FGTS funds (the FGTS is a savings intended for the Brazilian worker. The fund aims to ensure the worker in difficult situations, such as dismissal without just cause), there will also be another round of PIS / Pasep withdrawals. The objective of the plan is to try to revive the economy, via consumption, still in 2019 - the government projection is GDP growth of 0.81%. The Ministry of the Economy wants to allow workers to get up to 35% of the resources of their active accounts of the Working Time Guarantee Fund. The measure is expected to inject up to R$ 42 billion in the economy.

Guedes, faced with increasingly blatant evidence that the current stagnation of the Brazilian economy occurs due to a chronic lack of demand, decides to adopt an openly Keynesian policy.

But even the economists who are progressive and close to the Brazilian left-wing believe that the measure is insufficient to remove the country from the crisis. According to economist Laura Carvalho, "such effects will be temporary and insufficient to counteract the negative impact of cutting public investments and the global slowdown on our economy."

However, economist Laura Carvalho also points to the difference between Guedes' speeches during the political campaign and his actual role as minister.

Carvalho points out that the ultra-liberal Guedes, during the presidential campaign held in 2018 in Brazil, made a "discourse filled with cliché ultra-liberal solutions, among them the radical flexibilization of labor laws, tax cuts for entrepreneurs, privatization of all public assets and indiscriminate commercial opening as a way to guarantee economic growth and job creation. " Now, faced with the reality of the Brazilian economy, Guedes decides to adopt "a measure whose rationality is supported by the Keynesian multiplier of autonomous spending."

The same happened with the government of the also liberal Maurício Macri, in Argentina. In power, he adopted unorthodox measures in the economic area.

Monday, 17 June 2019

"Third-level advisor assumes the BNDES"

According to journalist Josias de Souza, Brazil's economy minister, Paulo Guedes, "contented himself with a domestic solution to fill the vacancy of the president of the BNDES". For Souza, Guedes accommodated "a third-level adviser" in the position of the top echelon of the Economics portfolio, was Gustavo Montezano, who has only 38 years old and served as special assistant secretary of Privatization and Disinvestment.

According to the newspaper Correio Braziliense, Paulo Guedes "ran against time to try to contain the sangria with the resignation of Levy, announced virulently by Bolsonaro on Saturday (15.Jun.2019) in the morning. The home-based solution was chosen to avoid further upheaval. The government did not want to hear a series of 'no', as many serious people were afraid of the President's rant."


Joaquim Levy's departure from BNDES begins a difficult week for the Brazilian economy

The dispute between the Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes, and the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, about the Pension Reform should continue in the coming days.

In addition, Joaquim Levy's exit from the BNDES brings more uncertainty to the government's economic team. Many analysts point out that Paulo Guedes would already be preparing a possible exit from the government. For political analyst Marco Antonio Villa, Paulo Guedes would be preparing his resignation due to economic stagnation and the changes made by the deputies in the Guedes proposed Pension Reform project.

Villa believes that Guedes can leave and blame the continuity of the economic crisis on the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate. Despite this scenario, it seems that the House of Representatives and the Senate will continue with the Pension Reform and other policies aimed at improving the national economic picture.

The Central Bank's Focus report published today revised the GDP forecast to less than 1%, ie the economic picture continues to worsen. Analysts are forecasting cuts in the Selic rate because of Brazil's poor economic performance.

Economists interviewed by the Central Bank (BC) in the Focus Bulletin reduced for the 16th time the growth forecast of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019. Thus, in the bulletin released on Monday (June 17, Brazilian economy for this year is forecast at 0.93%.

Request for the resignation of BNDES president, Joaquim Levy, leaves the Brazilian government even more ideologically isolated

Joaquim Levy's resignation request from the BNDES presidency left several members of the Brazilian National Congress with the impression that the economic team led by Paulo Guedes also became a "crisis plant." The president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, told Estado de S. Paulo newspaper that he was "perplexed" by the way the minister Paulo Guedes treated his subordinate. For him, Levy was a quality framework that he had to add to guarantee the reforms that Brazil needs right now.

After the resignation of Joaquim Levy, Bolsonaro government adds 19 casualties in the second step. This coupled with the number of ministers (3 in total) who have also left after untimely measures by President Jair Bolsonaro and his sons bring the number of people who left the government in the first six months of the administration to more than 20 people.

According to the magazine Exame, "the series of layoffs reinforces the tendency of the Bolsonaro government to entrench itself in more extreme positions".

Levy was the World Bank's chief financial officer between 2016 and 2018 and superintendent-director of Bradesco, one of Brazil's largest private banks, between 2010 and 2014. He was also finance minister during Dilma Rousseff's left-center government.

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