Brazil's Mato Grosso state is poised for a significant surge in ethanol production, with projections indicating a 16% increase to 8.44 billion liters in the 2026/27 harvest. This expansion is primarily driven by the growth of corn ethanol and the establishment of new industrial plants within the state, according to a forecast by the Mato Grosso Bioenergy Industry Union (Bioind-MT) and the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
The anticipated growth follows a robust 2025/26 season, which saw the state's ethanol output rise by 8.52% to 7.27 billion liters, while national production remained largely stable with a modest 0.22% increase. Mato Grosso currently holds the second position in Brazil's ethanol production ranking, trailing only São Paulo.
Corn ethanol is expected to be the main catalyst for the 2026/27 expansion, with production from the cereal projected to climb by 18.67% to 7.33 billion liters. Sugarcane ethanol, by contrast, is set for a more moderate increase of 1.42%, reaching 1.11 billion liters. Silvio Rangel, president of Bioind-MT and the Federation of Industries of Mato Grosso (Fiemt), highlighted the state's dominance in corn ethanol, noting that Mato Grosso accounts for 62% of national cereal ethanol production.
Wellington Andrade, executive director of Bioind-MT, attributed this growth to both the expanded capacity of existing facilities and the inauguration of new industrial units. He cited approved financing for ALD Bioenergia and RRP Energia, Inpasa's plant expansion, and new projects from 3tentos and Evermat as key drivers.
The Imea survey also forecasts an 18.52% increase in corn milling for ethanol production, rising from 13.81 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 16.36 million tonnes in 2026/27. By-products of corn ethanol are also expected to see double-digit growth, with DDG and DDGS production increasing by 16.14% to 3.41 million tonnes, and corn oil by 12.9% to 338,900 tonnes. In the sugarcane sector, milling is projected to remain stable at 18.61 million tonnes, while sugar production is expected to decline by 1.42% to 579,700 tonnes.
Long-term projections from Imea suggest continued bioenergy expansion in Mato Grosso, with the state potentially reaching 15.02 billion liters of ethanol production by the 2033/34 harvest, more than double the 2025/26 estimate.
In related developments, Bosch is piloting a technology that combines diesel and ethanol in sugarcane harvester engines. This retrofit system aims to replace up to 60% of fossil fuel use without compromising engine power. The solution, initially developed for large mining trucks, is currently being tested in six sugarcane mills across Brazil. Matheus Pintor, commercial head of Bosch's dual-fuel division, emphasized the economic rationale behind the retrofit, stating that it accelerates decarbonization by utilizing existing machinery rather than waiting for fleet replacement, which can take years.
Meanwhile, Atvos, a Brazilian clean energy company, is advancing its second corn ethanol project in Mato Grosso do Sul. The company has committed to paying R$3.284 million in environmental compensation for a new industrial unit in Costa Rica, with an estimated investment of R$669 million and a production capacity of 150 million to 800 million liters. This new unit will be integrated into Atvos' existing sugarcane ethanol plant in the municipality. The company also announced a similar project near the Santa Luzia plant in Nova Alvorada do Sul, with an investment exceeding R$1 billion, aiming to integrate sugarcane and corn operations and use sugarcane bagasse for energy generation.
Mato Grosso do Sul's corn ethanol industrial park currently operates with three units (two from Inpasa and one from Neomille) and is set for further expansion. Planned projects include an expansion of Inpasa's Sidrolândia plant by 300 million liters and a new plant in Jaraguari with an estimated capacity of 200 million liters per year. The state, a national leader in DDG production, saw approximately 1.40 million tonnes produced last year, with 1.15 million tonnes exported to countries like New Zealand, Turkey, Vietnam, and Spain.
