The Global Biofuel Shift: How Brazil’s Ethanol Strategy Navigates the China-US Rivalry

The global energy landscape is undergoing a structural transformation, and at the heart of this shift lies Brazil. As the world’s leading producer of sugarcane ethanol and a rapidly growing player in corn-based biofuels, Brazil finds itself in a strategic sweet spot between two superpowers: China and the United States. While the U.S. has long been a traditional partner, China’s recent pivot toward Brazilian ethanol as a cornerstone of its green transition is redefining trade dynamics and sending ripples through global commodity markets.

China’s interest in Brazilian ethanol is driven by a pragmatic necessity to meet ambitious carbon reduction targets. With a goal to integrate sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) into its massive aviation sector, which consumes over 80 million tons of fuel annually, Beijing has identified Brazil’s ethanol as a superior alternative to its current reliance on recycled cooking oil. This move is not just about environmental goals; it is a strategic play for self-sufficiency and unity among Global South nations, especially as trade tensions with the U.S. escalate over tariffs and protectionist policies.

The rise of corn ethanol in Brazil is a game-changer that brings both opportunities and complex market challenges. Historically, Brazil’s ethanol production was dominated by sugarcane, but corn-based production is projected to reach nearly 10 billion liters in the current cycle, with capacity potentially doubling by the early 2030s. This expansion is creating a "structural shift" in the domestic market, as corn ethanol begins to compete directly with sugarcane for market share. This competition is likely to depress ethanol prices at the pump, benefiting consumers but squeezing the profit margins of traditional sugarcane mills.

Corn Ethanol Expansion Strengthens Brazil’s Livestock Industry Through DDG Supply

This rapid growth in the 100% corn-based ethanol sector has had a significant and positive impact on Brazil’s livestock industry, particularly in Mato Grosso, home to the country’s largest beef cattle herd. Cattle ranchers in the state view this expansion favorably, mainly due to the increased availability of dried distillers grains (DDG).

DDG is a valuable co-product of ethanol production, obtained from the fermentation of corn starch. With a low moisture content of approximately 10% to 12%, it is easy to store and has become a key component of animal nutrition. Modern livestock farming is built on four main pillars, genetics, nutrition, management, and animal health, with nutrition playing a central role in economic efficiency and profitability.

DDG is especially valued for its crude protein content, which typically ranges from 25% to 32%. This makes it a competitive substitute for soybean meal, which generally contains around 43% crude protein, offering a more cost-effective option and helping to reduce feed costs for producers. The use of DDG in cattle nutrition is well established in the United States, and as Brazil’s corn ethanol industry expands, the product is increasingly reaching international markets.

In 2025 alone, ethanol producers in Mato Grosso exported approximately 73,000 metric tons of DDG, generating revenues of $22.4 million, according to a survey by the Federation of Industries of Mato Grosso (FIEMT).

Beyond the fuel pumps

The repercussions of this corn ethanol boom also extend to the global food and sugar markets. As more corn is diverted to ethanol production, the competition between domestic consumption and exports is intensifying. This trend, coupled with falling corn stocks in China and a potential resumption of large-scale Chinese imports, could drive corn prices significantly higher, echoing the peaks seen in previous harvest cycles. Furthermore, as Brazilian mills face increased competition from corn ethanol, they may pivot back toward sugar production, potentially flooding the global sugar market and impacting international prices at a time when they are already under pressure.

The geopolitical implications are equally significant. The strengthening Brazil-China relationship, characterized by high-level diplomatic engagements and discussions on financing through the BRICS framework, signals a move toward greater economic integration that bypasses traditional Western-centric financial structures. For Brazil, this means balancing its "best moment" in relations with China, its largest trading partner for soy, iron ore, and meat, with the volatile trade environment shaped by U.S. policy.

Ultimately, Brazil’s role in the global energy transition is no longer just about being a supplier of raw materials. It is about navigating a complex web of industrial competition, food security, and superpower rivalry. As the world watches the development of sustainable aviation (SAF) and maritime fuels, Brazil’s ability to manage the delicate balance between corn and sugarcane, and between Beijing and Washington, will determine its standing as a sovereign leader in the new green economy.

Corn Ethanol Disrupts Brazil’s Fuel Market as Vibra Ends Copersucar Partnership and Redefines Ethanol Strategy

Brazil’s fuel distribution market is undergoing a structural transformation driven by the rapid expansion of corn ethanol, a shift that has prompted Vibra Energia to terminate its partnership with Copersucar in Evolua Etanol, a joint venture created in 2022.

Evolua Etanol was established as a 50-50 partnership between Copersucar, one of Brazil’s largest sugarcane groups, and Vibra Energia, the country’s leading fuel distributor. The goal was to secure ethanol supply for Vibra’s nationwide network of fuel stations, covering both anhydrous ethanol blended into gasoline and hydrous ethanol sold directly to consumers.

Under the agreement, Vibra was required to purchase all its ethanol exclusively from Evolua, while Copersucar’s associated sugarcane mills were obligated to sell their ethanol production to the joint venture. The model ensured supply stability on one side and guaranteed product offtake on the other.

Corn Ethanol Undermines Sugarcane-Based Model

However, the partnership lost competitiveness as corn ethanol rapidly gained market share in Brazil. Over the past few years, corn ethanol production has expanded sharply, benefiting from lower production costs, greater price stability and increasing geographic reach beyond the Center-West region.

As corn ethanol became more widely available, Vibra found itself constrained by the exclusivity clause, unable to purchase cheaper and more competitive ethanol from producers such as FS and Inpasa, the latter now Brazil’s largest corn ethanol producer. This limitation reduced Vibra’s flexibility in sourcing fuel and weakened the economic rationale of the partnership.

The original expectation was that Evolua would allow Vibra to stockpile ethanol during the sugarcane off-season, between December and March, and sell it at higher prices. In practice, increased corn ethanol supply during the same period kept prices stable, eliminating this advantage.

Strategic Shift to Gain Market Share

With corn ethanol expanding into new regions, including Maranhão, Bahia and Pará, Vibra also faced constraints in supplying the North and Northeast markets. The inability to access these new production hubs ultimately led the company to exit the joint venture.

According to Vibra’s leadership, the decision is not a retreat from ethanol but a strategic move to increase competitiveness. The company aims to consolidate its position as Brazil’s largest ethanol distributor and potentially surpass Raízen, which currently shares market leadership but faces financial challenges and remains heavily dependent on sugarcane ethanol.

By shifting away from exclusive reliance on sugarcane-based supply, Vibra gains greater flexibility to benefit from corn ethanol’s expansion, lower costs and logistical advantages.

Corn Ethanol Drives Structural Change in Brazil

Industry projections indicate that by 2034, corn ethanol production in Brazil could match sugarcane ethanol output, with both reaching approximately 25 billion liters. However, while sugarcane ethanol growth is expected to stagnate, corn ethanol continues to expand rapidly, supported by Brazil’s position as the world’s third-largest corn producer and by strong demand for biofuels.

The rise of corn ethanol is reshaping Brazil’s fuel distribution market, influencing investment strategies, supply chains and competitive dynamics. As production grows and prices face downward pressure, distributors with diversified sourcing strategies are better positioned to gain market share.

Vibra’s exit from Evolua Etanol highlights how the corn ethanol boom is redefining long-standing business models, and signaling a new phase for Brazil’s biofuels industry.