Brazil has pushed up the ethanol level in gasoline to 32% for a short six month window, leaning on its big domestic biofuel industry to reduce exposure to imported fuel, since the U.S.-Iran war is upsetting energy markets and making people more worried about supply routes coming through the Middle East.
The move, which was cleared by Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) on July 14, bumps the required blend of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline from 30% to 32%. This policy lasts 180 days and could be prolonged just one time, for the same length, according to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME).
The move comes as hostilities touching the Strait of Hormuz and nearby regional energy assets have increased uncertainty around global oil and fuel deliveries. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the conflict has thrown more weight on energy security worries, while markets for refined products like gasoline and diesel stay tighter than the ones for crude oil, more or less.
For Brazil, which is one of the world’s largest ethanol producers, the higher blend is supposed to nudge a long-running biofuel program into something of a buffer against an external supply shock. The MME estimates that E32 could trim annual gasoline import needs by about 900 million litres, so the country depends less on fossil fuels that are sourced abroad. That number is a government forecast rather than something already seen or observed in practice.
The policy also sort of underscores how the war has changed the economics behind Brazil’s energy strategy, a lot more than people may expect. A higher ethanol blend has long been promoted as a kind of support mechanism for the domestic sugarcane industry, and also to curb transport emissions. Now though with global oil flows under pressure, it is being framed as more than a green instrument, also, as a way to secure fuel availability and limit how much the country has to face price swings linked to the conflict.
For drivers the outcome may feel less clear cut. Ethanol carries less energy per litre than gasoline, so in some vehicles it can lower fuel economy. Still, the MME said tests that were coordinated by the ministry and carried out by the Instituto Mauá de Tecnologia looked at performance, drivability, cold starts, consumption and emissions in passenger cars and motorcycles. It is important that the assessment found no material impact from E32 compared with lower-ethanol blends, even in non-flex-fuel models.
In Brazil, the private vehicle fleet is predominantly made up of flex-fuel cars — a flex-fuel car is designed to run on gasoline, ethanol, or any mixture of the two, with its electronic control unit automatically adjusting fuel injection, ignition timing and other engine parameters according to the fuel composition
Even so, the higher blend is likely to keep the technical debate going, among owners of older vehicles and those who import cars independently, which may not have been really adapted, to Brazilian fuel specifications. Actual fuel usage can vary based on engine calibration and maintenance, driving circumstances and vehicle age, so the economic outcome is going to depend not only on the blend, but also on what you pay at the pump.
The government has stated that the larger ethanol share may help ease day to day fuel prices for the average consumer, but it has not promised any clear cut reduction at the service stations. Any real perk for drivers will hinge on the relative prices of ethanol versus gasoline, distribution expenses, and how the conflict-driven oil market volatility unfolds.
Brazil’s experience with ethanol gives it a bit of that flexibility that many oil-importing places do not have. Still the E32 measure also shows the limits of that advantage, because even if domestic biofuels can reduce import requirements, Brazil remains exposed, to international oil prices and to disruption across global markets for refined products.
Since the war keeps testing shipping and energy infrastructure around the Strait of Hormuz, Brazil’s ethanol policy has started to function as more than a climate plus farming initiative. It is turning into, a sort of quick energy-security response to a conflict whose effects are reaching well beyond the Middle East, and people are noticing it.