Focus Survey indicates positive Brazilian financial market expectations for Brazilian economy despite the risk of a global economy crisis

According to Reuters, the market's expectation for growth in the Brazilian economy has risen again for 2019 and 2020. The Focus survey released today by the Central Bank indicates that Brazilian economists have come to see the possibility of growth in GDP. 0.83% in 2019 and 2.20% in 2020, compared to 0.81% and 2.10% respectively in the previous week.

This reading seems to be detached from global and regional reality. In the world last week was marked by fear of the world going into recession; In Argentina, the economy minister fell and the current president Mauricio Macri, with fear of losing the elections, decided to adopt a completely populist agenda in the economy.

It will be very difficult for Brazil's economy to grow, which Focus indicates today if these scenarios of global recession and the certainty of the continuing crisis in Argentina, Brazil's main regional economic partner, are confirmed.

Again, as when the election of Jair Bolsonaro occurred, the Brazilian financial market takes a stance much more closely linked to political ideology than the rational readiness of global and regional economic indicators.

While trying to criticize Norway, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro ends up releasing a video from Denmark

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has again associated Norway with killing whales in retaliation for the Scandinavian country's decision to suspend the transfer of 133 million reais to the Amazon Fund. On Sunday night, August 18, Bolsonaro posted a video to his Twitter account with images of mammal hunting that would have occurred in the Norwegian Sea. There is evidence, however, that the cases depicted occurred in the Faroe Islands, which belong to Denmark.

This episode is another demonstration of the complete lack of political and negotiating skills of the Brazilian president, who always behaves raising the tone of the conversation and, often, with misinformation.

Such behavior by the Brazilian president and some of his ministers creates insecurity and alienates foreign investors and possible economic deals like the one between Mercosur and European Union. Because of that, even after the Social Security Reform was approved, despite the president's constant unwelcome statements about the reform, international investors are still reluctant to invest their capital in Brazil.

The attacks that President Bolsonaro has made in recent days against the German chancellor Angela Merkel, the candidate leading the presidential race in Argentina Alberto Fernández, and also against the Norwegian government only reinforce this fear in international investors.

The hashtag #idiotadeipanema gains traction on Twitter in Brazil after President Jair Bolsonaro was satirized on a humoristic German show from ARD television channel

According to the Deutsche Welle Brazil website, a prime-time humor show on the German television network ARD, portrayed Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro as "a jester, agribusiness buffoon, and protagonist of the horror classic Massacre da Serra Elétrica."

The program strongly criticized the environmental and agricultural policies of the current Brazilian government and called President Jair Bolsonaro the "Der Depp von Ipanema", which could be translated as "the vulgar man from Ipanema".

In Brazil, this fact generated on Twitter the hashtag #idiotadeipanema, which a version of the statement made by the German television program and can be translated as "the idiot from Ipanema".

In fact, the complete lack of diplomatic skill of the current Brazilian government could turn the country into a kind of global pariah. Criticism by Bolsonaro and some of his government ministers to European countries and Mercosur member nations could undermine the recently concluded free trade agreement between Mercosur-European Union. In a way, the lack of political skill of the current Brazilian government, coupled with the obvious inability of many of its members, ends up sabotaging the country's growth agenda. It's the Brazilians the biggest losers of this freak show produced daily by the Brazilian government.

Last week, for example, Bolsonaro said that the Brazilians concerned about the environment should "poop every two days" to solve the country's environmental problems. 

Livestock production breaks a record in Brazil

According to the IBGE, cattle slaughter in Brazil exceeded 8 million head in the second quarter of 2019. The result represents a growth of 2.4% compared to the previous quarter and 4.1% compared to the same period the previous year.

The institution also pointed out that "there was an increase in pig slaughter and chicken egg production. 11.39 million pig heads were slaughtered, up 5.1% and 0.7% from the first quarter and in compared to the second quarter of 2018, respectively. Chicken egg production was 930.93 million dozen, up 5.8% and 2% on the same basis".

Milk acquisition and leather acquisition also increased compared to the same period last year but fell compared to the first quarter of the year. But, according to Sérgio Saud, president of the Brazilian Association of Artificial Insemination (Asbia), the agreement with China will be "vital for dairy farming because today there is no outlet for Brazil's milk production. If supply increases, the first thing that happens is to bring down the price ”.

After President Jair Bolsonaro has Angela Merkel reforested Germany, the European embassy in Brazil publishes a video in which it says Germany is one of the largest densely forested countries in Europe, with 1/3 of its national area covered by forests

The German government's response to the attacks by President Jair Bolsonaro over the European country's cancellation of money sent to the Amazon Fund, aimed at protecting the Amazon rainforest, has had many repercussions in the Brazilian media.

The largest media channels in the country showed the video in the newspapers of yesterday and today. For many analysts, propaganda was a class of diplomacy for the rudeness practiced by the Brazilian president.

This week Bolsonaro stated that Brazil “did not need German money” and stated: “I even wanted to send a message to dear Angela Merkel, who suspended $ 80 million for the Amazon. Take this money and reforest Germany, okay? There it needs much more than here.”

Norway, which also decided to cancel sending money because of the current Brazilian government policy, was also criticized by Bolsonaro.

During an interview, the Brazilian president said that "Norway is not the one that kills whales up there at the North Pole, is it? It also exploits oil there? It has nothing to offer us. It takes the money and helps [chancellor] German] Angela Merkel reforesting Germany ".

Environmentalists, scientists, and expert journalists say that the destruction of the Amazon has been increasing under the Bolsonaro government and that current environmental policies run counter to environmental guidelines.

Chaotic and volatile week scares the Brazilian financial market; the Ibovespa (IBOV) index varied almost 3 thousand points yesterday

Almost two months after hitting the previously unprecedented 100,000-point mark, the Bovespa Index, the Ibovespa (IBOV), has again curved against the strong risk aversion in the international market. In an environment of intense volatility since June 19, when the Ibovespa it had been holding above 100,000 points, reaching over 105,000 on July 10. From that peak, the international market turmoil coupled with the election results in Argentina and the unpreparedness of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's government to participate in political negotiations in the country and internationally have been holding back the index's advance beyond this level. Since then, the index has fallen by 6.39%.

The actions of the Brazilian Central Bank helped to hold the dollar around the 4 reais, which, in a way, helped calm the financial market a bit.

Today the Ibovespa has opened up, but in recent days the index has shown very large variations. This morning, the index recovered part of the accumulated losses in recent days. A scenario of corrections for the violent falls of recent days.

Inequality does not stop growing in Brazil and already reached 23.3 million people; unemployment reaches 12 million people

According to a study by FGV Social economist Marcelo Neri, Brazil faces the longest period of increasing inequality in its history. There are already 17 consecutive quarters of the increase in income concentration in the country. The survey also notes that the number of poor grew in the country and reached 23.3 million in 2017, the most recent data. These are people who live on less than 233 reais per month.

To make matters worse, more than 13 million Brazilians live in poverty or extreme poverty, according to data released this week by the Unified Registry of the Ministry of Citizenship.

Unemployment continues to erode Brazilian society. According to IBGE, 3.3 million unemployed people have been looking for work for at least 2 years in the country. This number corresponds to 26.2% of the 12.8 million Brazilians who were unemployed in the second quarter of 2019.

Meanwhile, the latest Focus Report, released by the Brazilian Central Bank, predicts that the economy will grow a meager 0.81% in 2019. A very small number in the face of rising inequality and unemployment affecting Brazilian society.

The financial market in Brazil closes down for the second day in a row; Ibovespa (IBOV), B3's main index, falls below 100,000 points

The Ibovespa closed down today. The index closed the day at 99.056 points, but the drop during the day reached the level of 2%. However, at the end of the day, the index fell 1.2%.

The day on the Bovespa was marked by investors selling stocks and looking for safer assets. It was a flight to quality movement.

Global risk aversion, fearing a new economic recession, has forced the Brazilian Central Bank, for the first time since the 2009 crisis, to announce that it is going into cash to control the rise in the US currency. The Brazilian Central Bank has also announced that it will offer foreign exchange swap contracts.

Today, at an event promoted by BancoSantander in São Paulo, the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, minimized global economic adversity. He said that he had no fear of being swallowed by the international market and that Brazil did not need Argentina to grow its economy.

In fact, the crisis in Argentina has affected and continues to affect the Brazilian economy. Guedes's phrase shows a mixture of arrogance and unpreparedness for the post of Minister of Economy.

The crisis in Argentina, Brazil's third-largest trading partner, affects everything from the Brazilian tourism industry to bus, beer and steel companies. To say that Brazil does not need Argentina is to ignore how the Brazilian economy works.

Norway paralyzes transfers of over R$ 130 million to the Amazon Fund

Norway follows Germany and freezes part of its funding to the Amazon fund. Both countries argue Brazil has violated the fund's terms. Bolsonaro told Merkel to use the 35 million euros to reforest Germany.

According to the Norwegian Minister of Climate and Environment, Ola Elvestuen, the European country will suspend the sending of about R $ 133 million that would be destined for the Amazon Fund. According to Elvestuen, Brazil is breaking the agreement to reduce deforestation.

The decision of the German and Norwegian governments came because the Brazilian government wanted to change the operation of the Fund and allocate resources to compensate landowners.

According to the Gazetaweb, the Amazon Fund, which has raised R $ 3 billion in grants, finances projects from states, municipalities and the private initiative for the sustainable development of the Legal Amazon. Norway and Germany together contribute over 90% of the total fund, which is managed by the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES).

Yesterday, after a very bad day in the Brazilian financial market, Bovespa (B3) starts today with a strong position adjustment movement; Goldman Sachs sees Brazil as a more "defensive" market

International financial markets yesterday showed strong turmoil in the face of the biggest fears of a global recession, after weak economic data in Germany and China mainly. This also happened in Brazil.

The Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, was affected: it fell by 2.94% to 100,258.01 points. The high of the US currency is the largest since March 27, reaching R$ 4.

Among the main casualties, Petrobras (BOV: PETR4) and Vale (BOV: VALE3) retreated above 2%. Kroton (BOV: KROT3) led declines by over 7% after the company's quarterly results were below expectations, according to Reuters.

Brazil should already be at the rate of stronger economic growth in order to face this scenario of a possible global recession. In fact, Brazilian families are not consuming because unemployment has risen. In addition, debt levels in Brazil are very high.

Despite these and several other negative indications about the Brazilian economy, Goldman Sachs said in a report that the bank is "more optimistic about the Brazilian stock market, followed by local exchange and interest rates and a little less positive about sovereign credit". 

After assessing the performance of Brazilian assets in recent weeks, which were particularly bad for emerging markets, Goldman Sachs assessed that Brazil is becoming a more “defensive” market. 

According to the bank, the contagion of the crisis in Argentina occurs more to a lesser degree, as a result of which Goldman Sachs believes that Brazil, which has resisted a scenario of slower global growth and problems in Argentina, should present assets with better performance than the other than your peers.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro tells German Chancellor Angela Merkel to use the Amazon deforestation aid offered by the European country to reforest Germany

According to the broadcast político site, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said German Chancellor Angela Merkel should "take the money" blocked for environmental preservation in Brazil and reforest Germany.

Over the weekend, the German government decided to suspend investments in Amazon Rainforest protection projects due to the high deforestation rates reported by Inpe and widely criticized by the Jair Bolsonaro government.

According to the broadcast político, Bolsonaro said that "I even wanted to send a message to dear lady Angela Merkel, who suspended 80 million reais (€35 million) for the Amazon. Take this money and reforest Germany, okay? It needs a lot more than here", he said during a conversation with journalists yesterday.

Following this, President Jair Bolsonaro said he does not need German money. A few days ago, German Environment Minister Svenja Schulze, who was directly responsible for canceling the money send, countered that the reaction shows that the German government is "doing exactly the right thing".