Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

Friday, 20 March 2020

Federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of President Jair Bolsonaro, becomes the center of a diplomatic crisis, after publicly blaming China for the coronavirus pandemic; allies of the Brazilian president distance themselves and Bolsonaro and he could suffer impeachment, according to Senator Major Olímpio

Since Thursday (19.03.2020), the Chinese Embassy in Brazil and Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro have been harshly accusing each other on social media. The Embassy of China even published a Twitter saying that the parliamentarian's speech is “absurd and prejudiced”. It all started after Eduardo blamed China for the coronavirus pandemic. The president's son blamed the Chinese government and compared Covid-19 to the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

In Brazil, Eduardo Bolsonaro's speech was widely criticized by the media, by Brazilian citizens (on Twitter) and even by Brazilian Vice President Hamilton Mourão said that Eduardo Bolsonaro's criticisms of China do not represent the government's position.

However, it is impossible to dissociate Eduardo's speech from Jair Bolsonaro's ideas. The relationship between the current president of Brazil with China has always been very complicated. During the presidential campaign, in 2018, Bolsonaro even said that China should buy Brazilian products and not "buy Brazil". Then, in 2019, during a visit to China, Bolsonaro said he was visiting a "capitalist country". Now, a member of the Bolsonaro clan decides to enter diplomatic conflict with Brazil's largest trading partner. In 2019, the trade balance with the Asian country had a surplus of another 30 billion dollars: Brazil exported 65.3 billion dollars, and imported 35.8 billion dollars.

Isolated government


According to the Congresso em Foco website, "President Jair Bolsonaro is losing support in the National Congress and in Brazilian society. Surrounded by daily national demonstrations, he is increasingly isolated.

In an exclusive interview with Congresso em Foco, a faithful ally to the president, the leader of the PSL in the Senate, Major Olimpio (SP), "says that decisive segments for the election of Bolsonaro in 2018, such as agribusiness, public security professionals and evangelicals, represented by the most influential benches in Congress, are distancing themselves from the president because of dissatisfaction with his government. Investors, he notes, also do not feel safe to bet on the country, due to the political instability created almost always by the president himself and your children".

Friday, 7 February 2020

Cost of living in Brazil: January inflation is 0.21%, the lowest for January since the beginning of the Real Plan, in 1994

According to IBGE, the official inflation in Brazil, as measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), decelerated to 0.21% in January of 2019, after registering an increase of 1.15% in December 2018. It is the lowest result for a month in January since the beginning of the Real Plan, in July 1994. In the accumulated of the last 12 months, the indicator registered 4.19%.

For economist Monica de Bolle, director of Latin American studies and emerging markets at Johns Hopkins University, "Brazil is experiencing a 'tropical version' of secular stagnation, with a stagnant economy, without reacting, and registering inflation contained below the target. It is not yet known what effect a reduction in interest rates could have on the economy in the current scenario".

To make matters worse, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean was stagnant in 2019, making it more challenging to resume growth in the region. The inflation figure for January in Brazil points to a certain stagnation remaining.

According to the IMF report, Brazil may grow by 2.2% this year and 2.3% in 2021 in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, after the emergence of coronavirus cases in Wuhan, China, Brazil's main trading partner, these figures are being revised downwards by the Brazilian financial market.

Thursday, 14 November 2019

Economy Minister Paulo Guedes says Brazil and China are negotiating the creation of a free trade area

Brazil and China have begun negotiations, according to Economy Minister Paulo Guedes, about the possibility of establishing a free trade area between the two countries.

The Brazilian minister said the negotiations are at an early stage. However, under the rules of Mercosur, a group of which Brazil is part, member countries of this bloc cannot individually enter into bilateral agreements involving tariff elimination.

For Guedes, these negotiations are to make Brazil "integrate into global chains".

Paradoxically, President Jair Bolsonaro, who was a harsh critic of China during the 2018 campaign, now seems very keen to get closer to the communist nation. After meeting in Brasilia with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Bolsonaro said the Asian giant "is part of Brazil's future."

This week, the governments of Brazil and China sign nine acts of cooperation. Both advocate a closer approach between the two nations in technology. Brazil will export agribusiness expertise to the Chinese, while China, according to the Brazilian Infrastructure minister Tarcisio de Freitas, may take part in auctions for two railroads in Brazil.

Saturday, 17 August 2019

Livestock production breaks a record in Brazil

According to the IBGE, cattle slaughter in Brazil exceeded 8 million head in the second quarter of 2019. The result represents a growth of 2.4% compared to the previous quarter and 4.1% compared to the same period the previous year.

The institution also pointed out that "there was an increase in pig slaughter and chicken egg production. 11.39 million pig heads were slaughtered, up 5.1% and 0.7% from the first quarter and in compared to the second quarter of 2018, respectively. Chicken egg production was 930.93 million dozen, up 5.8% and 2% on the same basis".

Milk acquisition and leather acquisition also increased compared to the same period last year but fell compared to the first quarter of the year. But, according to Sérgio Saud, president of the Brazilian Association of Artificial Insemination (Asbia), the agreement with China will be "vital for dairy farming because today there is no outlet for Brazil's milk production. If supply increases, the first thing that happens is to bring down the price ”.

Thursday, 15 August 2019

Yesterday, after a very bad day in the Brazilian financial market, Bovespa (B3) starts today with a strong position adjustment movement; Goldman Sachs sees Brazil as a more "defensive" market

International financial markets yesterday showed strong turmoil in the face of the biggest fears of a global recession, after weak economic data in Germany and China mainly. This also happened in Brazil.

The Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, was affected: it fell by 2.94% to 100,258.01 points. The high of the US currency is the largest since March 27, reaching R$ 4.

Among the main casualties, Petrobras (BOV: PETR4) and Vale (BOV: VALE3) retreated above 2%. Kroton (BOV: KROT3) led declines by over 7% after the company's quarterly results were below expectations, according to Reuters.

Brazil should already be at the rate of stronger economic growth in order to face this scenario of a possible global recession. In fact, Brazilian families are not consuming because unemployment has risen. In addition, debt levels in Brazil are very high.

Despite these and several other negative indications about the Brazilian economy, Goldman Sachs said in a report that the bank is "more optimistic about the Brazilian stock market, followed by local exchange and interest rates and a little less positive about sovereign credit". 

After assessing the performance of Brazilian assets in recent weeks, which were particularly bad for emerging markets, Goldman Sachs assessed that Brazil is becoming a more “defensive” market

According to the bank, the contagion of the crisis in Argentina occurs more to a lesser degree, as a result of which Goldman Sachs believes that Brazil, which has resisted a scenario of slower global growth and problems in Argentina, should present assets with better performance than the other than your peers.

Tuesday, 23 July 2019

China reopens its market for Brazilian milk powder and cheese

The Minister of Agriculture of Brazil, Tereza Cristina, today celebrated the decision of China, the largest importer of dairy products in the world. According to her, Brazil produces about 600 million tons of milk powder.

The Brazilian dairy sector can benefit greatly from this decision. This will raise the price of the bed in Brazil and strengthen this sector of the Brazilian economy.

In August, the minister of agriculture of Brazil should visit China for new talks.

Monday, 3 June 2019

Rodrigo Maia, the president of the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies, denies that he has made a political agreement with President Jair Bolsonaro

In an interview with the newspaper O Globo, Rodrigo Maia, the president of the Chamber of Deputies of Brazil, denies that he has made a political agreement with President Jair Bolsonaro. 

According to Maia, no pact was signed. Just a conversation. The president of the Chamber of Deputies also said that the current government does not have a formulated agenda. Meanwhile, Brazil would be headed for "social collapse".

Today, the deputy that is writing the report for the Pension Reform, Samuel Moreira (PSDB-SP), said that he seeks alongside Rodrigo Maia, "build a majority before submitting the report." Moreira said he should present his text until next Thursday.

To make matters worse, in the difficult economic scenario, Brazil suspended today meat exports to China after an isolated case of "mad cow". The suspension of trade, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, is provided for in the bilateral protocol signed by the two countries in 2015. Also according to the Ministry of Agriculture, the suspension is temporary until the Asian country completes the evaluation on health information already transmitted by Brazil about the episode.

Monday, 13 May 2019

Ibovespa falls more than 2%

The main index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange, the Ibovespa, had a very negative result today, May 13, 2019. This was the announcement of retaliation from China to the US surcharge, which began at dawn last Friday.

This dispute between China and the US coupled with the fact that financial market analysts have reduced for the 11th consecutive time their projections for growth of the Brazilian economy in 2019. According to the Focus Bulletin report released on Monday (13) by the Central Bank (BC), the economy is expected to grow only 1.45% in 2019. However, there are analysts indicating that this growth should be around 1%.

This is, for example, the projection for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) made by Itaú, one of the largest private banks in Brazil. For Itaú, Brazil is expected to grow only 1% in 2019. Itaú also reduced next year's growth forecast from 2.5% to 2%.

Tuesday, 23 April 2019

Brazil sells 10 million bags of coffee in the first quarter of 2019

Brazil sold 10 million 60kg bags of coffee in the first quarter of 2019. The United States and Germany are the largest importers of Brazilian coffee. In the first quarter of 2019, the US imported 18.2% of the 10 million 60kg bags of coffee exported by Brazil in the first quarter of 2019. Germany was responsible for the purchase of 17.2% of the total of 10 million 60kg bags.

Italy, Japan, Belgium, Turkey, UK, Russia, and France are other major buyers of Brazilian coffee. However, China was where Brazilian coffee exports grew the most. The advance of coffee drinking in place of tea, especially among the younger population, is making China the newest promising market for Brazilian grain exports. In 2018, sales of green coffee from Brazil to China more than doubled.

This is a problem now because Jair Bolsonaro talked tough on China during his presidential campaign. For him, China, the largest trading partner of Brazil, acts as a predator, not a partner. This could greatly undermine the growth in commodity sales such as coffee, soybeans and iron ore to the Chinese. If the current government does not create a climate of commercial war with China, which would be very damaging to the Brazilian economy, coffee exports should continue to grow.

Brazilian coffee exports grew by 15% in 2018. Many experts believe that Brazilian coffee exports should continue to grow in 2019.

Sunday, 7 April 2019

Jair Bolsonaro has worse evaluation among presidents of first mandate since the democratization

According to the Datafolha research institute, 30% of Brazilians consider the Bolsonaro government bad, a rate similar to those who considered the government good (32%) or regular (33%).

In 100 days of rule, Bolsonaro's approval fell from the 49 percent expected to be a good government, from January's Ibope poll to the current 32 percent who think his government is a good government according to Datafolha.

According to analysts like Vinicius Torres Freire, the "frustrations of 2019 could lead the country to the fatigue of an economic adjustment that has not yet occurred."

Added to this, according to FT, is the fact that China started to boost purchases of US agricultural products, including 1.7 million tons of soy and 178 thousand bales of cotton that were previously imported from Brazil.

In recent years, agribusiness exports have ensured surpluses in the trade balance.

During the presidential campaign, Bolsonaro portrayed China, Brazil's largest trading partner, as a "predator who seeks to dominate key sectors of the Brazilian economy." The speech of the then-candidate was very badly received by the Chinese government.

Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Free Trade: Lies & Truths

Let’s start from the beginning: free trade is based on the principle of comparative advantage developed by David Ricardo in the early part of the 19th century “that attributed the cause and benefits of international trade to the differences among countries in the relative opportunity costs (costs in terms of other goods given up) of producing the same commodities”[1]. According to John Sloman and Dean Garratt, comparative advantage is when “a country has a comparative advantage over another in the production of a good if it can produce it at a lower opportunity cost: i.e. if it has to forgo less of other goods in order to produce it”[2]Comparative advantage is different from absolute advantage. Absolute advantage is when a country can make a good much more cheaply than any other country. In this case, the country can produce at the lowest resource cost.

Comparative advantage occurs when a country has the lowest opportunity cost. For example, if China can produce 50 cars in one day of work and the UK can produce 5 cars in the same period of time, China is more productive than the UK. And if China can produce 150 bicycles in a day of work and UK can produce 25 bicycles in the same period of time, China will be again more productive, but will have a greater comparative advantage in cars — the comparative advantage is based in the time of work needed to make a product.

For each car that China produces, the country will spend the same amount of time to produce 3 bicycles. In Britain, for each car that the country produces, it will spend the same amount of time to produce 5 bicycles.

Every time that the UK decides to produce 1 car the country is also choosing to not produce 5 bicycles. For China, every time that the country decides to produce 1 car this means that China is also not producing 3 bicycles. In this case, we can say that the opportunity cost of 1 car for China is 3 bicycles and the opportunity cost of 1 car for the UK is 5 bicycles. Cars are relatively less costly to produce for China then the UK and it will be good for both countries if they agree to trade, for example, 1 Chinese car for 4 British bicycles. This comparative advantage resides on the fact that instead of China choosing not to produce a car to produce 3 bicycles the country can choose to trade 1 car for 4 bicycles with the UK and then this will represent a gain of 1 bicycle for China. For the UK the gain will reside in the fact that the cost to produce 1 car is 5 bicycles, but if the UK can trade 4 bicycles for 1 car with China the advantage it will be 1 bicycle. In this case, both countries win. For David Ricardo, it will be better for both countries if they trade Chinese cars for British bicycles because those are the items that they are more productive. 

This act of choosing what to produce gives rise to an opportunity cost. Is when an individual, a company or a government makes a choice between two options. The opportunity cost can be “measured in terms of the best alternative forgone”3]. In other words, the opportunity cost is the cost of what you don't get to spend the money on because you have to spend it on something else. In that way, if you choose to produce one thing like cars there is an opportunity cost, a loss, for not having done something else, for example, bicycles. This holds true even if China can produce both goods (car and bicycles) more effectively than the UK. Since both countries want to consume both products, the most efficient productive scheme will be China to produce and export cars and the UK to produce and export bicycles. This is known as inter-industry trade.

All the economic decisions of a government include an opportunity cost. If a country chooses to spend billions of pounds in the military industry, military missions, and wars, this means that the same country is also choosing not to put this enormous amount of money into education, health service, and other industrial areas — like the development of technologies to produce green energy. Opportunity cost means that every decision of producing something by an individual, a firm or a government is also a decision to not be doing something else with the time, the work and the capital spend.

Free trade basically means no barriers to buying and selling goods produced in one nation in another country. In reality, this is not what really happens. Today, almost every country in the world has some sort of tariff (tax) collected on imported goods and services. In this case, we can say that that is no free trade in the world.

The idea of free trade seems to be more a product of the mathematization of economics. It seems to be easier to think and create mathematical models of a free market and a free trade version of the world. But, in reality, all markets have their taxes and some kind of protectionism. Historically, the truth about free trade is that there is no developed country in the world today that became developed by practicing free trade. The developed countries had protected themselves to become economically powerful. Then, the developed countries start to try to convince other small or undeveloped countries to practice the free trade that they had never practiced for real. Even Adam Smith had praised the British Navigation Act, which was a major protectionism decision of Britain government in his time. He expressed the view that restrictions on international trade are justified "when some particular industry is necessary for the defense of the country"[4].

In reality, free trade and international trade are two very different things. There is no laissez-faire spread in the world market. For this reason, a government that decides today to base his entire economy only in free trade is making a terrible mistake. The reason is simple: no other country will do the same. The idea of comparative advantage developed by David Ricardo is a fundamental argument used in favor of free trade between countries. For him, nations will be better off if they choose to use their resources for the production of that kind of goods that they are more efficient at doing it. The problem with Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage is the assumptions that he makes about how the world economy works.  For example, his notion of capital mobility had a lot of problems. In Ricardo’s world, there is no capital, factory or production mobility. But, today, world production has been totally globalized. Nowadays, the notion of free trade developed by Ricardo has to face problems production mobility and like the costs of labor.

It is possible also to say that China has today low opportunity costs of labor when compared with most Europeans countries and that make the Chinese economy more competitive. But this model suggests also that any increase in labor costs will make the country less competitive. The Financial Times recently reported that Coach, the big United States accessories brand, “is planning to move up to half its manufacturing out of China to escape rising labor costs”[5]. According to the Financial Times, “Lew Frankfort, Coach’s chief executive, said that over the next five years the company would cut its China production to 40-50 percent of its total from 85 percent at present by opening factories in lower-wage economies including India, Vietnam and the Philippines”[6].

This means that in a globalized world companies will always try to find where the labor cost less. The search for competitiveness will push companies to countries with lower-paid workers. In this case, the opportunity cost will be linked, in many cases, with low-wage labor.

According to Stephen D. King, “political arrangements can get in the way of economic opportunity and preserve economic rents for the lucky few. They create barriers to free trade, migration and capital flows. Since the 1980s, those barriers have slowly come down. The developed world is now trading with countries that, only a few years ago, were treated as strange lands. In analyzing these new patterns of trade, economists routinely resort to the principles of comparative advantage famously described by David Ricardo in On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, published in 1817. Today’s trade patterns, however, are much more a story about outsourcing, off-shoring, upscaling and downsizing. The developed world has increasingly been exporting its factories to emerging economies”[7].

In Ricardo's theory, countries which choose to practice free trade will be better off. In reality, free trade in Ricardo’s terms could also help to increase productivity abroad, give strength to other economies and it may harm developed countries in the long run by making international competition more and more aggressive. One possible answer for this kind of competition will be the creation of protectionism policies to try to rebuild the industry and resuscitate the productivity.

In general, we can say that international trade is a tool for development, but the most important thing is to comprehend that international trade is not free trade at all. A country with absolutely free trade does not exist in reality. This kind of extremist openness exists only in economist’s minds, not in the reality. Every country has a balance of closure (tariffs) and openness towards the world economy.

John  Maynard Keynes once wrote that he “was brought up, like most Englishmen, to respect free trade not only as an economic doctrine which a rational and instructed person could not doubt but almost as a part of the moral law”[8]. This Keynesian notion of free trade — if we look carefully to Ricardo’s ideas — doesn’t apply to international trade today.

In David Ricardo terms, comparative advantage works if land, labor, and capital, called factors of production, were immobile across nations. Unfortunately, this is not what happens in reality. Today, labor and capital are very much mobile. According to Stephen D. King, immobility of labor and capital between nations is “only true under certain strict conditions”[9], that is almost impossible nowadays. “When Ricardo said that free trade would produce shared gains for all nations, he assumed that the resources used to produce goods – what he called the ‘factors of production’ — would not be easily moved over international borders. Comparative advantage is undermined if the factors of production can relocate to wherever they are most productive: in today's case, to a relatively few countries with abundant cheap labor. In this situation, there are no longer shared gains — some countries win and others lose”[10].

For Stephen D. King, “Ricardian assumptions worked better in the 1950s and 1960s, a world in which capital flow across borders was relatively limited and where trade flows took place between a group of economically ‘like-minded’ OECD countries”[11]. Today, the problem isn´t if free trade is good or bad. The problem is that free trade doesn’t exist in Ricardian terms simply because labor and capital are not immobile like Ricardo has thought. According to Schumer and Roberts, “when Ricardo proposed his theory in the early 1800s, major factors of production — soil, climate, geography and even most workers — could not be moved to other countries. But today's vital factors of production — capital, technology and ideas — can be moved around the world at the push of a button”[12]. In Ricardo’s book, comparative advantage will occur only in a world without this free flow of factors of production. In this case, is possible to say that there is not free trade anymore and then is impossible to say if free trade is good or bad because there isn’t free trade around the world.





[1] Available from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/129613/comparative-advantage
[2] Sloman, J. and Garratt D. 2010. Essential of Economics. Essex: Pearson Education Limited
[3] Sloman, J. and Garratt D. 2010. Essential of Economics. Essex: Pearson Education Limited
[4] Smith, Adam. The Wealth Of Nations. Cannan ed. Book IV, chap. II, p. 429.
[5] Gapper, J. and Barney J. 2011. Coach to shift manufacturing from China. London. The Financial Times. Available from: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e01b1796-7cb6-11e0-994d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1NpuwsnoD
[6] Gapper, J. and Barney J. 2011. Coach to shift manufacturing from China. London. The Financial Times. Available from: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e01b1796-7cb6-11e0-994d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1NpuwsnoD
[7] King, Stephen D. 2010. Losing Control – The Emerging Threats to Western Prosperity. London: Yale University Press
[8] Keynes, John M. 1933. National Self-Sufficiency. The Yale Review, Vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 755-769. Available from: http://gesd.free.fr/keynesaa.pdf
[9] King, Stephen D. 2010. Losing Control – The Emerging Threats to Western Prosperity. London: Yale University Press
[10] Schumer, Charles and Roberts, Craig. 2004. Second Thoughts on Free Trade. New York. The New York Times. Available from: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/06/opinion/second-thoughts-on-free-trade.html?src=pm
[11] King, Stephen D. 2010. Losing Control – The Emerging Threats to Western Prosperity. London: Yale University Press
[12] Schumer, Charles and Roberts, Craig. 2004. Second Thoughts on Free Trade. New York. The New York Times. Available from: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/06/opinion/second-thoughts-on-free-trade.html?src=pm

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