After the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) pointed to a drop of 1.3% in March 2019 in Brazilian industrial production, Goldman Sachs warned that the economic crisis that currently affects Argentina may impact negatively the Brazilian industrial production.
As reported in the Poder360 website, Argentina is Brazil's third largest trading partner. According to data from Brazil's Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (MDIC), between January and March 2019, the value of exports to Argentina totaled US$ 2.34 billion.
Therefore, the Brazilian Industry must be impacted by the Argentine economic crisis. In addition to undermining Brazilian exports and industry, the Argentine situation serves as a warning for the country, said Alberto Ramos, the chief economist for Goldman Sachs in Latin America.
For Ramos, since the end of Dilma Rousseff's first term in Brazil, there has been a need to make a fiscal adjustment.
Friday, 3 May 2019
Brazilian industry lost the first quarter of 2019
Industrial production fell 1.3% in March 2019 compared to February 2019, in the seasonally adjusted series, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) announced today. Overall, Brazilian industry shrank -2.2% and the first quarter of 2019 closed negative.
Still, in March of 2019, the level of industrial production was 17.6% below the peak of the historical series of the IBGE, which was registered in May 2011, during the Dilma Rousseff government.
To make matters worse, industrial production fell by 6.1% compared to March 2018. The percentage of Brazilian households with debt (in arrears or not) reached 62.4% in March 2019. The index is higher than 61, 5% from February 2019 and 61.2% from March 2018. This scenario of low economic activity in the country greatly limits the companies' indebtedness capacity.
Still, in March of 2019, the level of industrial production was 17.6% below the peak of the historical series of the IBGE, which was registered in May 2011, during the Dilma Rousseff government.
To make matters worse, industrial production fell by 6.1% compared to March 2018. The percentage of Brazilian households with debt (in arrears or not) reached 62.4% in March 2019. The index is higher than 61, 5% from February 2019 and 61.2% from March 2018. This scenario of low economic activity in the country greatly limits the companies' indebtedness capacity.
Brazilian financial market expects figures from US economic activity
Unemployment data, salary data and various other information on the US labor market will determine the behavior of the financial market in Brazil today.
If the payroll numbers are positive, with strong economic growth, interest rates would remain stable. This would lead foreign investors to seek other places to invest in. The positive US scenario may, therefore, lead Brazil and other emerging countries to receive more investment.
In case the US data is worse than expected, the dollar and the stock market in Brazil must undergo strong changes.
This is coupled with reductions in growth assessments of the Brazilian economy, which grew by more than 3% from the beginning of 2019 to around 1% and 1.5% per year.
Companies of Brazilian deputies and senators owe R$ 320 million to Social Security
The website Poder360 indicated that 48 politicians fulfilling the mandate of federal deputy and senator in the Brazilian National Congress are owners, partners or presidents of companies that add up to R$ 320 million of social security debts with the Union.
This means that at least 48 votes for a possible Pension Reform will be given by individuals whose companies have debts with the National Social Security Institute (INSS).
Meanwhile, a group of businessmen who support the Social Security Reform opens a lobby office in Brasilia to try to avoid that the reform, considered vital for the resumption of the growth of the Brazilian economy, is barred in the National Congress.
This group includes Flávio Rocha, owner of Riachuelo, who according to Valor Econômico newspaper has already criticized Brazilian rules for labor inspection in a condition analogous to slavery, and Luciano Hang, owner of Havan, which was, according to El País, convicted of INSS's evasion and the crime of currency evasion and money laundering.
Thursday, 2 May 2019
Citi Brazil again lowers its estimate for the growth of the Brazilian economy
Citi Brazil now expects Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to increase by 1.4% in 2019. This forecast is lower than the 1.8% forecast for April, well below the 2.2% previously estimated by the same bank at the beginning of the year.
The weaker growth is, according to Citi, the steady increase in the estimates for the unemployment rate in Brazil.
The Citi also predicts a 30 percent probability that the Brazilian Central Bank will start cutting interest rates in the second half of 2019.
The weaker growth is, according to Citi, the steady increase in the estimates for the unemployment rate in Brazil.
The Citi also predicts a 30 percent probability that the Brazilian Central Bank will start cutting interest rates in the second half of 2019.
Cost of living increases for the poorest in São Paulo
O custo de vida em São Paulo, a maior cidade do Brasil, aumentou 5,10% para a população mais pobre no primeiro trimestre de 2019. For the richer classes, the increase in the cost of living in the same period was 3.67%.
The Cost of Living Index (ICV) in the city of São Paulo, which is calculated by the Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (Dieese), indicated an increase in the cost of living after analyzing the prices of 10 groups, including food, transport, recreation, personal expenses. Among them, food and transportation had the highest increases, with 1.36% and 1.26% respectively.
Meanwhile, preview inflation in Brazil accelerated to 0.72% in April, the highest for that month since 2015. The number surpassed expectations. For example, a Reuters survey with Brazilian economists estimated a 0.69% rise for the same period.
On the other hand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) index of the Institute for Economic Research (FIPE) increased by 0.29% in April and accumulated inflation of 1.93% in the first four months.
The Cost of Living Index (ICV) in the city of São Paulo, which is calculated by the Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (Dieese), indicated an increase in the cost of living after analyzing the prices of 10 groups, including food, transport, recreation, personal expenses. Among them, food and transportation had the highest increases, with 1.36% and 1.26% respectively.
Meanwhile, preview inflation in Brazil accelerated to 0.72% in April, the highest for that month since 2015. The number surpassed expectations. For example, a Reuters survey with Brazilian economists estimated a 0.69% rise for the same period.
On the other hand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) index of the Institute for Economic Research (FIPE) increased by 0.29% in April and accumulated inflation of 1.93% in the first four months.
Friday, 26 April 2019
One in four Brazilians is stuck at very high credit card interest rates
One in four Brazilians who made purchases on the credit card in February 2019 entered the revolving credit and started to pay very high interest rates. The average interest rates charged by credit card companies in Brazil in February 2019 were around scary 286.9% per year, according to a survey conducted by SPC Brazil (Credit Protection Service) and CNDL (National Confederation of Directors Shopkeepers).
Most of the credit expenditures in Brazil in February 2019 were food (66%), medicines (46%), clothing (36%) and fuel (35%).
Charging interest of 286.9% a year for those who bought things like medicines and food is producing a multitude of citizens in debt in Brazil. In 2018, 62.6 million Brazilians reached the end of the year with some backlog, which represents 41% of the country's adult population. Meanwhile, Brazilian banks charge the highest spreads in the civilized world and cut credit lines.
In a country where the population outside the workforce has reached the frightening number of 65.7 million people, it is understandable to understand that a person who is unemployed and can not get a less expensive line of credit ends up falling on the revolving credit and becoming a prisoner of unpayable debts on the credit card.
The continued rise in unemployment also increases the level of population indebtedness, but the government does nothing at all. In a picture like the current one, there are those in Brazil who defend a ceiling on the value of interest on purchases of basic necessities such as medicines and food.
Wednesday, 24 April 2019
According to Ibope, 35% of Brazilian voters approve Jair Bolsonaro's government
A survey by Ibope indicated that the approval of Jair Bolsonaro's government is about one-third of the electorate. According to the institute, the current government approval is at 35%.
The last such survey by Ibope in December 2018 indicated that 64% of Brazilians voters thought that Bolsonaro's government would be good or great. Now, 45% of Brazilians voters believe that Bolsonaro's government is good or great.
The survey of Ibope was made between April 12 and 15 and heard 2,000 people in 126 municipalities. This is the first survey commissioned by CNI since Bolsonaro took office.
Brazil cuts 43,196 jobs at the formal labor market in March
According to information from the Caged (General Register of Employees and Unemployed) disclosed today by the Special Secretariat of Social Security and Labor of the Ministry of Economy, Brazil closed 43,196 job vacancies with a formal contract in March. This is the worst result for the month of March since 2017 when 63,624 jobs were closed. In March 2018, Brazil had created 56,151 jobs with a formal contract. The worst results were registered in the areas of commerce (-28.803), agriculture (-9.545), and construction (-7.781).
Today, after the vote on the Pension Reform in the Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ) of the Chamber of Deputies, approved yesterday after 62 days of debates, six times more time for the approval of the Pension Reform project presented previously by the government of Michel Temer (which was not approved).
This difference to overcome a stage that virtually all analysts consider very simple indicate that perhaps the government, because of its disorganization in political articulation, will have difficulties approving the Pension Reform.
The union of the negative numbers of Caged and the difficulty of the government to approve the Pension Reform does not create a favorable horizon. Because of this climate of doubt and uncertainty, the financial market in Brazil will continue to fluctuate.
Today, after the vote on the Pension Reform in the Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ) of the Chamber of Deputies, approved yesterday after 62 days of debates, six times more time for the approval of the Pension Reform project presented previously by the government of Michel Temer (which was not approved).
This difference to overcome a stage that virtually all analysts consider very simple indicate that perhaps the government, because of its disorganization in political articulation, will have difficulties approving the Pension Reform.
The union of the negative numbers of Caged and the difficulty of the government to approve the Pension Reform does not create a favorable horizon. Because of this climate of doubt and uncertainty, the financial market in Brazil will continue to fluctuate.
Tuesday, 23 April 2019
Brazil sells 10 million bags of coffee in the first quarter of 2019
Brazil sold 10 million 60kg bags of coffee in the first quarter of 2019. The United States and Germany are the largest importers of Brazilian coffee. In the first quarter of 2019, the US imported 18.2% of the 10 million 60kg bags of coffee exported by Brazil in the first quarter of 2019. Germany was responsible for the purchase of 17.2% of the total of 10 million 60kg bags.
Italy, Japan, Belgium, Turkey, UK, Russia, and France are other major buyers of Brazilian coffee. However, China was where Brazilian coffee exports grew the most. The advance of coffee drinking in place of tea, especially among the younger population, is making China the newest promising market for Brazilian grain exports. In 2018, sales of green coffee from Brazil to China more than doubled.
This is a problem now because Jair Bolsonaro talked tough on China during his presidential campaign. For him, China, the largest trading partner of Brazil, acts as a predator, not a partner. This could greatly undermine the growth in commodity sales such as coffee, soybeans and iron ore to the Chinese. If the current government does not create a climate of commercial war with China, which would be very damaging to the Brazilian economy, coffee exports should continue to grow.
Brazilian coffee exports grew by 15% in 2018. Many experts believe that Brazilian coffee exports should continue to grow in 2019.
Italy, Japan, Belgium, Turkey, UK, Russia, and France are other major buyers of Brazilian coffee. However, China was where Brazilian coffee exports grew the most. The advance of coffee drinking in place of tea, especially among the younger population, is making China the newest promising market for Brazilian grain exports. In 2018, sales of green coffee from Brazil to China more than doubled.
This is a problem now because Jair Bolsonaro talked tough on China during his presidential campaign. For him, China, the largest trading partner of Brazil, acts as a predator, not a partner. This could greatly undermine the growth in commodity sales such as coffee, soybeans and iron ore to the Chinese. If the current government does not create a climate of commercial war with China, which would be very damaging to the Brazilian economy, coffee exports should continue to grow.
Brazilian coffee exports grew by 15% in 2018. Many experts believe that Brazilian coffee exports should continue to grow in 2019.
Income inequality rises in Brazil
Brazilian racial democracy is a myth when the issue is the economic development of its citizens. A study by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) indicated that gains in skin color have grown over the past five years. In 2012, whites received an average of R$ 726.93 more than blacks. In 2017, the difference increased to R$ 767.84.
In 2017, whites had an average income of R $ 1,780.60, while blacks had an average monthly income of R $ 1,012.76. So much lower than the white population.
Another very serious problem pointed out by the research are the wage differences between men and women. Although this disparity has reduced in recent years, Brazilian women, despite being more educated than men, have lower income. Brazilian women’s average income in 2012 was USD $250/month while Brazilian men’s was USD $461/month (Ipea, 2017).
Brazil increasingly needs entrepreneurial policies focused on diversity, since public policies have been derisory near the social problem that exists. However, the current government was elected with a platform aimed at ending what President Jair Bolsonaro calls "gender ideology" in Brazilian schools.
However, educational scholars argue that the educational approach to gender identity in schools can contribute to combating problems such as teenage pregnancy, violence against women, homophobia and gender inequalities.
In 2017, whites had an average income of R $ 1,780.60, while blacks had an average monthly income of R $ 1,012.76. So much lower than the white population.
Another very serious problem pointed out by the research are the wage differences between men and women. Although this disparity has reduced in recent years, Brazilian women, despite being more educated than men, have lower income. Brazilian women’s average income in 2012 was USD $250/month while Brazilian men’s was USD $461/month (Ipea, 2017).
Brazil increasingly needs entrepreneurial policies focused on diversity, since public policies have been derisory near the social problem that exists. However, the current government was elected with a platform aimed at ending what President Jair Bolsonaro calls "gender ideology" in Brazilian schools.
However, educational scholars argue that the educational approach to gender identity in schools can contribute to combating problems such as teenage pregnancy, violence against women, homophobia and gender inequalities.
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