Beyond Impulsiveness: How Trump’s Strategy Reshaped the U.S.–China Trade War

For years, Donald Trump's foreign policy was described as unpredictable because he followed his personal emotions instead of following established military strategies. Yet a closer examination shows that Trump developed a military strategy which treated China as the core element of American global military operations.

Political analysts and commentators increasingly argue that Trump’s actions represented not a rupture with American foreign policy traditions but an acceleration of a deeper long-term shift which recognized China as the principal strategic challenger to U.S. global hegemony in the 21st century.

A Structural Conflict, Not a Personal Obsession

The trade war which Trump initiated served as an economic battle that formed part of a larger geopolitical conflict which sought to restrict China's development. This perspective helps explain why many of Trump’s most controversial trade measures, particularly tariffs on Chinese goods, were not dismantled by his successor.

The Biden administration maintained existing trade barriers while extending their scope through new restrictions. The United States maintains a bipartisan agreement which exists throughout Washington because all political groups see China as America's primary strategic opponent.

The belief that China represents a fundamental danger to the United States has taken root across all sectors from Congress to major think tanks and defense contractors and mainstream media outlets. The American elite shows increasing concern about two main issues which they perceive to be vital to their society: the decline of the American Century and the potential emergence of Chinese dominance during the 21st century.

Trade War as a Tool of Global Containment

China does not show any willingness to yield under external pressure. Beijing used its extensive historical knowledge and its dedication to strategic independence to strengthen its domestic production capabilities and extend its trading network while accelerating its quest for technological independence.

The situation has evolved into an extended conflict which now behaves like a novel type of Cold War that battles through supply chains and industrial policy and semiconductors and worldwide market access.

A World in Transition

The U.S.-China trade conflict functions as a direct result of fundamental changes that are currently reshaping the global system. The unipolar order that emerged after the Cold War is giving way to a more fragmented and multipolar world, which now distributes economic power and political influence together with technological leadership across multiple different centers.

Trump's foreign policy functions in this situation as a standard foreign policy approach which demonstrates fundamental changes that continue to impact current United States government operations. The United States relationship with China has transformed into a three-part conflict which includes economic and technological and geopolitical elements, and this conflict now serves as the main force that determines worldwide political relations between countries.

The trade war between the United States and China serves as a clear indicator that international power relationships face new changes because both traditional economic definitions and ideological systems fail to describe this current transition.

The Global Biofuel Shift: How Brazil’s Ethanol Strategy Navigates the China-US Rivalry

The global energy landscape is undergoing a structural transformation, and at the heart of this shift lies Brazil. As the world’s leading producer of sugarcane ethanol and a rapidly growing player in corn-based biofuels, Brazil finds itself in a strategic sweet spot between two superpowers: China and the United States. While the U.S. has long been a traditional partner, China’s recent pivot toward Brazilian ethanol as a cornerstone of its green transition is redefining trade dynamics and sending ripples through global commodity markets.

China’s interest in Brazilian ethanol is driven by a pragmatic necessity to meet ambitious carbon reduction targets. With a goal to integrate sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) into its massive aviation sector, which consumes over 80 million tons of fuel annually, Beijing has identified Brazil’s ethanol as a superior alternative to its current reliance on recycled cooking oil. This move is not just about environmental goals; it is a strategic play for self-sufficiency and unity among Global South nations, especially as trade tensions with the U.S. escalate over tariffs and protectionist policies.

The rise of corn ethanol in Brazil is a game-changer that brings both opportunities and complex market challenges. Historically, Brazil’s ethanol production was dominated by sugarcane, but corn-based production is projected to reach nearly 10 billion liters in the current cycle, with capacity potentially doubling by the early 2030s. This expansion is creating a "structural shift" in the domestic market, as corn ethanol begins to compete directly with sugarcane for market share. This competition is likely to depress ethanol prices at the pump, benefiting consumers but squeezing the profit margins of traditional sugarcane mills.

Corn Ethanol Expansion Strengthens Brazil’s Livestock Industry Through DDG Supply

This rapid growth in the 100% corn-based ethanol sector has had a significant and positive impact on Brazil’s livestock industry, particularly in Mato Grosso, home to the country’s largest beef cattle herd. Cattle ranchers in the state view this expansion favorably, mainly due to the increased availability of dried distillers grains (DDG).

DDG is a valuable co-product of ethanol production, obtained from the fermentation of corn starch. With a low moisture content of approximately 10% to 12%, it is easy to store and has become a key component of animal nutrition. Modern livestock farming is built on four main pillars, genetics, nutrition, management, and animal health, with nutrition playing a central role in economic efficiency and profitability.

DDG is especially valued for its crude protein content, which typically ranges from 25% to 32%. This makes it a competitive substitute for soybean meal, which generally contains around 43% crude protein, offering a more cost-effective option and helping to reduce feed costs for producers. The use of DDG in cattle nutrition is well established in the United States, and as Brazil’s corn ethanol industry expands, the product is increasingly reaching international markets.

In 2025 alone, ethanol producers in Mato Grosso exported approximately 73,000 metric tons of DDG, generating revenues of $22.4 million, according to a survey by the Federation of Industries of Mato Grosso (FIEMT).

Beyond the fuel pumps

The repercussions of this corn ethanol boom also extend to the global food and sugar markets. As more corn is diverted to ethanol production, the competition between domestic consumption and exports is intensifying. This trend, coupled with falling corn stocks in China and a potential resumption of large-scale Chinese imports, could drive corn prices significantly higher, echoing the peaks seen in previous harvest cycles. Furthermore, as Brazilian mills face increased competition from corn ethanol, they may pivot back toward sugar production, potentially flooding the global sugar market and impacting international prices at a time when they are already under pressure.

The geopolitical implications are equally significant. The strengthening Brazil-China relationship, characterized by high-level diplomatic engagements and discussions on financing through the BRICS framework, signals a move toward greater economic integration that bypasses traditional Western-centric financial structures. For Brazil, this means balancing its "best moment" in relations with China, its largest trading partner for soy, iron ore, and meat, with the volatile trade environment shaped by U.S. policy.

Ultimately, Brazil’s role in the global energy transition is no longer just about being a supplier of raw materials. It is about navigating a complex web of industrial competition, food security, and superpower rivalry. As the world watches the development of sustainable aviation (SAF) and maritime fuels, Brazil’s ability to manage the delicate balance between corn and sugarcane, and between Beijing and Washington, will determine its standing as a sovereign leader in the new green economy.

Brazil, Hong Kong and Singapore Help Boost U.S. Trade Surplus Under Trump in 2025

According to the United States government's official statistics, Brazil was one of the main contributors to the positive trade results of Donald Trump in 2025, together with the Asian financial centers of Hong Kong and Singapore.

During the first half of the last year, the U.S. enjoyed a trade and services surplus of US$9.2 billion with Brazil, making the country one of the most favored partners of Washington. Only the Netherlands stood above with a surplus of US$20 billion.

Nevertheless, according to a report by ICL, experts point out that the Dutch number is skewed by structural factors. A lot of products that are being imported to the European Union are recorded through the Port of Rotterdam, which leads to the U.S.-Netherlands trade figures being overstated. Also, the substantial impact of the financial services sector on the Dutch economy has a strong effect on the final balance.

Excluding these distortions, Brazil stands out, outperforming several major economies according. The U.S. posted a surplus of US$8.9 billion with Singapore, US$8.6 billion with Switzerland, and US$6.2 billion with Hong Kong. Other countries contributing to positive balances included the United Kingdom (US$5.4 billion), Australia (US$5.2 billion) and Saudi Arabia (US$3.3 billion).

Despite Trump’s aggressive efforts to shrink America’s trade gap, the U.S. continues to run large deficits with key manufacturing economies. The biggest shortfalls remain with Mexico (US$50.3 billion), Vietnam (US$44.2 billion), Taiwan (US$34.4 billion), China (US$33.1 billion) and Germany (US$15.8 billion).

Brazil’s role extends beyond services

When services are excluded and only goods trade is considered, Brazil again appears among the countries helping the U.S. narrow its deficit. Official figures from October show U.S. trade surpluses in goods with Switzerland (US$7.3 billion), the United Kingdom (US$6.8 billion), the Netherlands (US$5.1 billion), Hong Kong (US$2.8 billion) and Brazil (US$2.7 billion), ranking fifth.

By contrast, the U.S. continues to face a deep goods trade deficit, totaling US$17.9 billion with Mexico, US$15.7 billion with Taiwan, US$15 billion with Vietnam, and US$13 billion with China.

Brazilian Panettone Expands to Asia and Oceania, Reaching 50 Countries Worldwide

This year, Abimapi (the Brazilian Association of Biscuit, Pasta, and Industrialized Bread, Cake and Panettone Industries) is also celebrating the expansion of Brazilian panettone into new markets across Asia and Oceania, including Australia, China, Hong Kong, New Zealand, and Singapore.

Panettone is a traditional Italian sweet bread, originally from Milan, made with a soft, aromatic dough enriched with candied fruits and raisins and a distinctive vanilla aroma. Over time, it has become a symbol of the year-end holiday season in Brazil and around the world.

Overall, Brazilian panettone is now sold in around 50 countries across all continents

Tariffs, politics and partial rollbacks

The sharp increase in the U.S. surplus with Brazil occurred during a period when tariffs and trade barriers were imposed on Brazilian products. At the time, Trump framed the measures as retaliation over the treatment of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Over time, however, several of these tariffs were gradually lifted.

Even so, Brazilian exports still face minimum tariffs of around 10% to enter the U.S. market, while steel and other industrial products can be taxed at rates exceeding 25%.

Deficit narrows, but imbalance remains

According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the American economy still runs an overall trade deficit with the rest of the world. However, that gap has been shrinking rapidly since Trump expanded tariffs on both rivals and allies.

In October 2025, the U.S. trade deficit stood at US$29.4 billion, a sharp decline from US$48.1 billion in September, representing a reduction of US$18.8 billion in just one month.

Ibovespa falls more than 2%

The main index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange, the Ibovespa, had a very negative result today, May 13, 2019. This was the announcement of retaliation from China to the US surcharge, which began at dawn last Friday.

This dispute between China and the US coupled with the fact that financial market analysts have reduced for the 11th consecutive time their projections for growth of the Brazilian economy in 2019. According to the Focus Bulletin report released on Monday (13) by the Central Bank (BC), the economy is expected to grow only 1.45% in 2019. However, there are analysts indicating that this growth should be around 1%.

This is, for example, the projection for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) made by Itaú, one of the largest private banks in Brazil. For Itaú, Brazil is expected to grow only 1% in 2019. Itaú also reduced next year's growth forecast from 2.5% to 2%.

Brazilian financial market expects figures from US economic activity

Unemployment data, salary data and various other information on the US labor market will determine the behavior of the financial market in Brazil today.

If the payroll numbers are positive, with strong economic growth, interest rates would remain stable. This would lead foreign investors to seek other places to invest in. The positive US scenario may, therefore, lead Brazil and other emerging countries to receive more investment.

In case the US data is worse than expected, the dollar and the stock market in Brazil must undergo strong changes.

This is coupled with reductions in growth assessments of the Brazilian economy, which grew by more than 3% from the beginning of 2019 to around 1% and 1.5% per year.

Brazil sells 10 million bags of coffee in the first quarter of 2019

Brazil sold 10 million 60kg bags of coffee in the first quarter of 2019. The United States and Germany are the largest importers of Brazilian coffee. In the first quarter of 2019, the US imported 18.2% of the 10 million 60kg bags of coffee exported by Brazil in the first quarter of 2019. Germany was responsible for the purchase of 17.2% of the total of 10 million 60kg bags.

Italy, Japan, Belgium, Turkey, UK, Russia, and France are other major buyers of Brazilian coffee. However, China was where Brazilian coffee exports grew the most. The advance of coffee drinking in place of tea, especially among the younger population, is making China the newest promising market for Brazilian grain exports. In 2018, sales of green coffee from Brazil to China more than doubled.

This is a problem now because Jair Bolsonaro talked tough on China during his presidential campaign. For him, China, the largest trading partner of Brazil, acts as a predator, not a partner. This could greatly undermine the growth in commodity sales such as coffee, soybeans and iron ore to the Chinese. If the current government does not create a climate of commercial war with China, which would be very damaging to the Brazilian economy, coffee exports should continue to grow.

Brazilian coffee exports grew by 15% in 2018. Many experts believe that Brazilian coffee exports should continue to grow in 2019.

Jair Bolsonaro has worse evaluation among presidents of first mandate since the democratization

According to the Datafolha research institute, 30% of Brazilians consider the Bolsonaro government bad, a rate similar to those who considered the government good (32%) or regular (33%).

In 100 days of rule, Bolsonaro's approval fell from the 49 percent expected to be a good government, from January's Ibope poll to the current 32 percent who think his government is a good government according to Datafolha.

According to analysts like Vinicius Torres Freire, the "frustrations of 2019 could lead the country to the fatigue of an economic adjustment that has not yet occurred."

Added to this, according to FT, is the fact that China started to boost purchases of US agricultural products, including 1.7 million tons of soy and 178 thousand bales of cotton that were previously imported from Brazil.

In recent years, agribusiness exports have ensured surpluses in the trade balance.

During the presidential campaign, Bolsonaro portrayed China, Brazil's largest trading partner, as a "predator who seeks to dominate key sectors of the Brazilian economy." The speech of the then-candidate was very badly received by the Chinese government.