Voting for Pension Reform postponed in Brazil; according to Ibope, Bolsonaro's popularity falls

The rapporteur for the pension reform bill, deputy Samuel Moreira, said that despite the postponement of the special committee session in the House, he believes that the Pension Reform proposal will be voted by the Chamber of Deputies before the July recess.

But with each passing day, it becomes more difficult for the vote to take place. Today, for example, Members decided to postpone the reading of the rapporteur's supplementary vote, which was scheduled for today (27.jun.2019).

The Pension Reform is struggling because of the inability of the government of President Jair Bolsonaro to participate actively and positively in political negotiations. The president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, has been the main responsible for the progress of the Pension Reform.

An example of this difficulty is the position of MP Marcelo Ramos (PL-AM), who is chair of the special committee for the Pension Reform, which reacted very poorly to the knowledge that the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, said that the Congress is " a machine of corruption. " Ramos said he "has no respect" for Guedes anymore.

Ramos also said that "the government does not have an agenda, and because it has no agenda, it needs to adopt a diversionary attitude, it has no agenda to face the country's structural problem, which is 12.7 million unemployed, GDP below 1%. the way is a diversion, talk of three-pronged, gun-carrying, things that draw attention to the economic disaster that is the first six months of the Bolsonaro administration."

To make matters worse, new research indicates the popularity of Jair Bolsonaro. According to the Ibope, the rate of disapproval of the way the president governs rose from 40% to 48%. In April, 51% approved the management. Now the percentage fell to 46%.

In less than six months of government, the percentage of those assessing the government as bad has risen from 27 percent to 32 percent in June, and the population evaluating the government as good dropped from 35 percent to 32 percent. Therefore, the current government has growing disapproval.

According to Ibope, 35% of Brazilian voters approve Jair Bolsonaro's government

A survey by Ibope indicated that the approval of Jair Bolsonaro's government is about one-third of the electorate. According to the institute, the current government approval is at 35%. 

The last such survey by Ibope in December 2018 indicated that 64% of Brazilians voters thought that Bolsonaro's government would be good or great. Now, 45% of Brazilians voters believe that Bolsonaro's government is good or great.

The survey of Ibope was made between April 12 and 15 and heard 2,000 people in 126 municipalities. This is the first survey commissioned by CNI since Bolsonaro took office.

Jair Bolsonaro has worse evaluation among presidents of first mandate since the democratization

According to the Datafolha research institute, 30% of Brazilians consider the Bolsonaro government bad, a rate similar to those who considered the government good (32%) or regular (33%).

In 100 days of rule, Bolsonaro's approval fell from the 49 percent expected to be a good government, from January's Ibope poll to the current 32 percent who think his government is a good government according to Datafolha.

According to analysts like Vinicius Torres Freire, the "frustrations of 2019 could lead the country to the fatigue of an economic adjustment that has not yet occurred."

Added to this, according to FT, is the fact that China started to boost purchases of US agricultural products, including 1.7 million tons of soy and 178 thousand bales of cotton that were previously imported from Brazil.

In recent years, agribusiness exports have ensured surpluses in the trade balance.

During the presidential campaign, Bolsonaro portrayed China, Brazil's largest trading partner, as a "predator who seeks to dominate key sectors of the Brazilian economy." The speech of the then-candidate was very badly received by the Chinese government.