The Bolsonaro paradox

The British magazine, The Economist, on its front page claims that a victory by right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro would be a catastrophe for Brazil.

Paulo Guedes, the economist responsible for the Bolsonaro government plan, said yesterday that a future Bolsonaro government will come back with a tax called CPMF, which will collect a portion of any financial transaction made in Brazil. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, spent the entire campaign stating that he will not raise taxes if elected.

Paradoxically, the right-wing and ultraliberal Bolsonaro leads the polls in a country where the population is largely against an ultraliberal government. Research indicates that most Brazilians want health and education services to be public. Programs such as Bolsa Familia, which protects people against hunger, are also widely aproved by the population.

Because of this, renowned statistician Paulo Guimarães, who helped countless politicians win elections in Brazil, believes that Bolsonaro may not make it to the second round of elections. In an interview for El Pais Brasil, Guimarães said that Bolsonaro's votes are not "of competence". They are "protesting, hateful against the other side".  For Guimarães, "the highest loyalty among the candidates is that of the Bolsonaro, but there is a very fluctuating part there, which is there because of hatred. If the voter realizes that he can win from the PT without hatred, he can change, but for that, one of those other center candidates has to appear with a vote that gives hope to the voter". 

Candidates from the center-left and center-right, such as Ciro Gomes and Geraldo Alckmin, respectively, have a few days to try to change that picture and win undecided voters and those who are not so loyal to Bolsonaro.

Presidential elections in Brazil

The election to the presidency of the Republic of Brazil is headed for a second round marked by radicalism. The left-wing candidate and the Workers' Party (PT), Fernando Haddad, former Minister of Education of Govern Lula and former mayor of the city of São Paulo, adopted a more radical agenda, which advocates raising taxes for the rich, democratization of the media, fight against the banking monopoly — in Brazil only five banks are responsible for 80% of the country's financial operations.

On the other side is Jair Bolsonaro from the tiny PSL, Partido Liberal Social, adopts an agenda that for many political analysts is far right. According to Celso Rocha de Barros, a doctorate in sociology from the University of Oxford, said on the last day in the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo that Bolsonaro's followers want to do a coup.

Bolsonaro, an ex-military man who has been in Brazilian politics for about 30 years and has been elected federal deputy many times, has spent the last few days adopting a speech that does not recognize the results of the election if not the winner. . His deputy, Colonel Mourão, also ex-military, said that if elected, will make a new constitution without the participation of the population, that is, according to Mourão, his government will make a new constitution made by a commission of notables.

If the dispute between Haddad and Bolsonaro is confirmed in the second round, Brazil will leave the election with a more radical government for both left and right. The question is: the country that is coming from a deep and deep recession will enter 2019 with a very difficult political agenda, regardless of who is elected.

Bitcoin fever arrives in Brazil

Brazilian media publishes an interactive map that shows which establishments in the world accept bitcoin. According to the report, it is possible to buy anything from sandwiches to cars. In Brazil, the bitcoins market is turning into a fever. Many Brazilians are spending clear nights to invest in these digital coins. States such as São Paulo and Paraná and Rio Grande Sul have the largest number of investors. In 2018, a shopping mall in Recife, Pernambuco's capital, will accept bitcoin as payment.