A recent Atlas/Bloomberg poll indicates a statistical tie between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (47.6%) and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (46.6%) in a hypothetical second round of presidential elections in Brazil, given a one-percentage-point margin of error. The poll, conducted between March 18 and 23 with 5,028 Brazilians, also noted that Lula's support increased by 0.4 percentage points and Bolsonaro's by 1.3 percentage points since the previous February poll.
It is based on the results of this new research that Brazil's fragile democracy faces a renewed and explicit threat from the far-right, as the now candidate and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro — which was sentenced to prison for attempted coup d'état —, has openly outlined a plan to undermine the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and potentially pardon his father. His statements, made in an interview with Folha de S. Paulo, reveals a disturbing willingness to employ 'force' against judicial decisions, echoing a historical longing for a 'Brazil that never was' — a romanticized and deeply misguided view of the country's authoritarian past.
The senator's remarks have sent shockwaves through Brazil's political landscape, suggesting a calculated strategy to dismantle democratic institutions. Flávio Bolsonaro asserted that if elected president, he would grant an "indulto" (pardon) to his father, Jair Bolsonaro. More alarmingly, he declared that even if the STF were to deem such a pardon unconstitutional, he would resort to "the use of force" to ensure its implementation. This thinly veiled threat against the judiciary is seen by many as a direct assault on the rule of law and the separation of powers, fundamental tenets of any democratic state.
Cognitive dissonance
One of the pillars of the Brazilian far-right is the glorification of the past. The Brazilian far-right's vision of a "peaceful Brazil" is a dangerous delusion, a nostalgic yearning for the military dictatorship era (1964-1985), a classic case of cognitive dissonance. This period, often romanticized by the Bolsonaro family and their supporters, was anything but peaceful, characterized by state-sponsored torture, severe social inequality, and abysmal indicators in health and education. Furthermore, there is an obvious and embarrassing subservience of the Brazilian far-right to the United States, with some even advocating for foreign intervention — a stance that starkly contradicts their self-proclaimed "patriotism."
Beyond the rhetoric, Flávio Bolsonaro has reportedly set conditions for any candidate seeking his father's endorsement in the 2026 presidential election. These include a commitment to pardoning those convicted of coup attempts and actively "fighting" the STF, even to the point of using "force."
The intent is unequivocally clear: to subvert the democratic process and judicial authority. The implication is that if the STF were to declare a presidential pardon unconstitutional, the elected president, backed by the far-right, would then resort to “force” against the Supreme Court.
This current wave of threats is not an isolated incident. Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, suggested in 2018 that "a soldier and a corporal" would suffice to close the Supreme Court”, and Flávio Bolsonaro has publicly advocated for the US to bomb Guanabara Bay. These historical pronouncements, coupled with the attempted coup in 2022, paint a picture of a consistent and escalating pattern of undermining democratic institutions. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent statements are thus viewed not merely as political posturing, but as a continuation of a dangerous agenda for Brazilian democracy.
Adding to the gravity of the situation are persistent allegations linking Flávio Bolsonaro to militia groups and illicit financial activities. The Public Prosecutor's Office of Rio de Janeiro (MPRJ) has indicted Raimunda Vera Magalhães, mother of notorious militiaman Adriano da Nóbrega, for money laundering. Magalhães previously served as an advisor in Flávio Bolsonaro's office in the Legislative Assembly of Rio de Janeiro (Alerj). Adriano da Nóbrega, an ex-police officer expelled for torture and extortion, rose to prominence as a key figure in organized crime in Rio, reportedly heading the "crime office."
Further evidence of these troubling connections includes Flávio Bolsonaro's visit to imprisoned police officers accused of militia involvement and his controversial act of awarding the Tiradentes Medal — the highest honour in Rio de Janeiro state — to Adriano da Nóbrega while the latter was incarcerated. Adriano da Nóbrega's wife also reportedly worked as an advisor in Flávio Bolsonaro's office. Both Adriano's mother and wife were implicated in the "rachadinha do Queiroz" (salary kickback) scheme, further entangling the Bolsonaro family with alleged criminal enterprises.
Other allegations against Flávio Bolsonaro include his acquisition of a mansion in Brasília with millions of reais without clear financial backing, and accusations of being unduly influenced by foreign political figures, specifically Donald Trump.
It urges all political candidates in the country to unequivocally state their positions on these threats to Brazilian democracy and for the press and political parties to actively defend democratic principles against what are described as explicit and escalating dangers. The ongoing revelations and the open discussion of subverting judicial power demand a clear and unified response from all those committed to upholding Brazil's democratic future.
In recent weeks, the scandal surrounding the Banco Master case and the possible ties of family members of court members to Daniel Vorcaro indicate that the STF (Supreme Federal Court) may also have problematic members. However, the institution and its defense are essential for the maintenance of Brazilian democracy.
Bolsonarismo is taking advantage of the crisis produced by the Banco Master scandal to increase pressure on the STF (Supreme Federal Court) — an institution they obviously intend to destroy. The Brazilian far-right, which is also involved in the Banco Master case (Bolsonarist governors and mayors are also targets of investigations), acts as if individual cases represented the court in its entirety, and uses this tactic to present an old and always rotten Latin American authoritarianism, that is iron-fisted against democracy, but always blatantly subservient to the U.S. as the solution.
