Bank UBS presented a new growth forecast for Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2019 and 2020. According to UBS, in 2019, the estimate for the increase of the Brazilian GDP fell from 1% to 0.8%. Already referring to the years 2020, the institution believes that the index will grow only 1.5%, compared to 2.2% previously predicted. Therefore, in a scenario of economic stagnation, UBS forecasts even lower performance than expected.
According to economist Laura Carvalho, the current recovery of the Brazilian economy is among the slowest in recent Brazilian history. According to Laura de Carvalho's estimates, "GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in force in the first quarter of 2014 would not be reached until December 2021 - 20 quarters after the end of the recession."
According to data released today by the IBGE, the Brazilian economy underperformed and grew only 0.4% in the second quarter of 2019. This result was driven by a slight recovery of the Brazilian industry. However, compared to the same period last year, the GDP was up 1%.
Also according to IBGE data, the Brazilian extractive industry had a record drop: -9.4%. This was the sharpest drop in the historical series of this sector. Vale's crimes in Brumadinho (where 248 people died and 22 others are missing) and the paralyzing of other dams for inspection in an attempt to prevent further tragedies. This, added to the rains in Pará impacted the iron ore industry in Brazil in the period.
