COVID-19 takes down Brazilian industrial production

According to IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) today, the coronavirus pandemic led to the fall of industrial activity in the country from February to March. This is what the Regional Monthly Industrial Survey points out. It is the first time in eight years that all 15 surveyed locations have retreated. The closest to this result occurred in May 2018, with the truckers' strike, which brought down industrial production in 14 of the 15 locations.

According to a survey carried out in partnership by the Brazilian Institute of Economics, of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV / Ibre), and The Conference Board (TCB), Iace (Compound Background Indicator of the Brazilian Economy) fell 10.1% in April of 2020 in compared to March of the same year. The index fell from 112.6 to 101.2 points, the biggest drop in the historical series started in 1996.

Brazil's GDP growth to be the lowest in 120 years

A projection by the Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (Brazilian Institute of Economics) of the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Ibre/FGV) indicates that the average growth of the Brazilian economy should be only 0.9% per year between 2011 and 2020. If everything continues as it is, will have its weakest performance in 120 years.

According to Ibre/FGV analysis, the weak performance of the economy reflects the successive deficits in public accounts since 2014 and two consecutive years of recession in 2015 and 2016.

This rate is lower than the 1.6% of the so-called 'lost decade' in the 1980s when the Brazilian government declared a moratorium and suspended the payment of international creditors.

In 2015 Brazil's GDP fell by 3.5%. By 2016, the fall in GDP was 3.3%.

According to the Ibre/FGV researcher, Marcel Balassiano, the country would have to grow around 5.7% in 2019 and 2020 for this decade also not be considered a lost decade.

Overall, Brazil's economic recovery has been slow, the industry is struggling to catch up, and the Brazilian state is headed for a few more years of fiscal deficits.