A recent survey conducted by Pulso Brasil-Ipespe showed that the approval rating of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) rose from 43% to 46% after the conviction of former president Jair Bolsonaro for attempting a coup d’état. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison, along with other high-ranking military officials involved in the plot.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies saw its disapproval rating climb from 63% to 70%, as attempts to pass legislation protecting politicians and coup supporters backfired. Approval fell sharply from 24% to 18%, with most Brazilians feeling Congress is disconnected from citizens’ needs.
Tax Reform and Political Bargaining in Brazil
This week, Brazil’s Senate Economic Affairs Committee approved Senator Renan Calheiros’ proposal to exempt workers earning up to R$5,000 per month (about US$1,000) from paying income tax. However, in the Chamber of Deputies, Bolsonaro-aligned lawmakers have tied the approval of this tax exemption to legislation aimed at reducing penalties for coup participants involved in the January 8th, 2023 attacks on Brazil’s democratic institutions.
Eduardo Bolsonaro’s 2026 Presidential Bid
Journalist Mônica Bergamo reported growing discussions around Eduardo Bolsonaro’s potential presidential run in 2026. Despite facing charges that could make him ineligible, Eduardo insists he will run—with or without the support of his father Jair Bolsonaro or the Liberal Party. He is even considering founding a new political party.
Right-wing leaders argue his candidacy would divide conservatives and potentially help Lula’s reelection, though some believe Eduardo is positioning himself for a stronger run in 2030.
Trump’s Tariffs on Brazilian Products and Their Economic Impact
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, including beef and coffee, echoing past tariffs imposed on Chinese imports. While the policy aims to reindustrialize the U.S., experts say it contradicts economic liberalism and mainly raises costs for American consumers.
Historically, the U.S. used tariffs to protect its nascent industries, but globalization has made such protectionism less viable. Analysts estimate the Brazilian economy could shrink by 0.2% to 0.5% of GDP due to these measures, particularly affecting small industries and retailers. However, key products such as Embraer aircraft and orange juice were exempted, given U.S. dependency on these imports.
Brazilian Beef Exports Grow Despite U.S. Tariffs
The 50% tariff on Brazilian beef initially lowered domestic prices in Brazil but made the product nearly inaccessible to U.S. consumers, fueling inflation in the United States.
Despite these challenges, Brazilian beef exports reached 2.41 million tons from January to August 2024, a 19% increase year-over-year, according to industry group Abrafrigo. August alone, when the tariffs took effect, was the second-best month for exports in 2024.
China remains the top buyer, importing nearly 1 million tons (+19%), with revenue up 41% to almost US$5 billion.
The United States holds the second spot, importing 557,000 tons (+66.5%), generating US$1.6 billion in revenue (+73.2%), despite a 46% drop in August shipments due to tariffs.
Other markets such as Mexico, Argentina, Indonesia, and Japan are expanding, supported by government and private sector efforts to diversify Brazil’s export destinations.
Political and Economic Risks for Bolsonaro and Trump
Both Eduardo Bolsonaro and Donald Trump are facing setbacks that could weaken their political platforms. Eduardo risks fragmenting Brazil’s conservative base, while Trump’s tariffs are driving U.S. inflation and could backfire ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, when voters will choose all 435 House Representatives and one-third of the Senate.
