Ibovespa Reaches All-Time High as Dollar Weakens After Trump Tariff Retreat

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has announced the cancellation of planned tariffs on European nations following discussions with NATO leadership, pointing to a tentative framework for a future deal on Greenland and Arctic security. The move marks a rare reversal in Trump’s recent hardline trade rhetoric toward Europe and comes amid growing concerns over transatlantic relations, NATO cohesion, and market volatility.

Trump Cancels Planned Tariffs on Europe

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said he would no longer impose a 10% tariff on eight European countries, which had been scheduled to take effect on February 1. The tariffs were initially framed as retaliation against European support for Greenland amid renewed U.S. pressure over the strategically critical Arctic territory.

According to Trump, the reversal followed what he described as a “very productive meeting” with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, during which both sides agreed on the framework of a future deal covering Greenland and the broader Arctic region.

“This solution, if consummated, will be a great one for the USA and all NATO nations,” Trump wrote, adding that discussions are also underway regarding the Golden Dome missile defense system as it relates to Greenland.

Ibovespa Hits Fresh Record as Foreign Capital Floods Brazil and the Dollar Weakens

Brazil’s stock market extended its historic rally on Thursday (22), with the Ibovespa jumping 2.2% to a new all-time closing high of 175,588 points. During the session, the benchmark index briefly surpassed the 177,000-point mark, reinforcing a streak of consecutive records seen throughout the week.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar fell 0.67% against the Brazilian real, closing at R$ 5.28, its lowest level since November. The combination of strong equity inflows and currency appreciation underscores a broader global rotation of capital toward emerging markets, with Brazil emerging as one of the main beneficiaries.

Foreign Capital Drives Brazil’s Stock Market Rally

Market participants point to robust foreign inflows as the primary driver behind the Ibovespa’s performance. Global investors have been reallocating part of their portfolios toward emerging markets perceived as less exposed to rising tensions between the United States and Europe.

Brazil, with its deep exposure to commodities and high real interest rates, has become an attractive destination for international capital seeking diversification and protection amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Data from B3 indicate that foreign investors have injected between R$ 9 billion and R$ 10 billion into Brazilian equities in recent days, a volume that, while modest by global standards, has a significant impact on domestic prices.

Dollar Weakness, Not Real Strength

According to market analysts, the recent appreciation of the Brazilian real reflects broad-based dollar weakness, not isolated strength in Brazil’s currency. The U.S. dollar has been losing ground not only to the real but also to other emerging-market currencies, including the Chilean peso.

This shift suggests a change in global risk perception. Traditionally, periods of uncertainty favor the dollar. Recently, however, investors have increasingly turned to commodities such as gold and silver as safe havens. As those assets became more expensive, capital began flowing into commodity-linked equity markets, including Brazil.

Commodities and Blue Chips Lead the Charge

The Ibovespa’s rally has been led primarily by blue-chip stocks, particularly companies tied to commodities such as Vale (VALE3) and Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4), as well as major banks. These stocks offer the liquidity foreign investors require, allowing them to enter and exit positions efficiently.

Petrobras experienced intraday volatility, rising sharply before retreating as oil prices softened. Even so, the broader commodities complex continues to provide structural support to the index.

Analysts note that smaller-cap stocks remain largely sidelined, as many lack the liquidity demanded by large international funds.

Global Context: U.S. GDP and Market Rotation

The positive sentiment was reinforced by fresh data from the United States. The U.S. economy grew 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, marking its fastest pace since 2023. While strong growth could justify higher interest rates in the U.S., markets are increasingly focused on political uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve and the White House.

Unconventional fiscal and trade policies under President Donald Trump, combined with ongoing tariff disputes, have led global investors to trim marginal exposure to U.S. assets and reallocate small portions to other regions, including Latin America, Asia, and Europe.

Davos: Calm Markets, Confusing Signals

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, market reaction was muted. Trump’s speech drew attention more for its erratic tone than for concrete policy signals, oscillating between calls for peace and renewed geopolitical provocations, including earlier remarks on Greenland.

While Davos itself did not generate immediate volatility, Trump’s recent retreat from aggressive trade measures against Europe helped ease global risk sentiment, indirectly supporting emerging-market assets like Brazilian equities.

High Real Rates and the Carry Trade Advantage

Brazil continues to offer one of the highest real interest rates in the world, with inflation-adjusted returns estimated between 7% and 9% annually. This differential sustains carry trade strategies, attracting global capital into both Brazilian fixed income and equities.

Even with expectations of future rate cuts, analysts believe the pace of easing will be gradual, keeping Brazil’s yield advantage intact through much of the year.

Can the Rally Continue?

Market consensus suggests that the Ibovespa still has room for further gains, particularly if interest rate cuts begin to be signaled more clearly by Brazil’s Central Bank. Lower rates tend to boost equity valuations by improving cash flow projections and reducing financing costs.

However, analysts caution that sustaining levels above 170,000 points in the long term will require broader participation beyond commodities and banks. A sustained rally would depend on:

• A clearer cycle of interest rate cuts

• The return of domestic investors to equities

• Improved inflows into equity and multi-asset funds

Elections and Political Risk: A Secondary Concern

Despite Brazil heading into an election cycle, political noise has not yet become a decisive factor for foreign investors. Historically, volatility rises closer to elections, but for now, global dynamics outweigh domestic politics.

That said, markets remain sensitive to rumors and polling shifts. Past episodes have shown that even minor political headlines can trigger sharp, short-term corrections.

A Global Rotation That Favors Brazil

The current Ibovespa rally reflects a global rebalancing of portfolios, not a mass exodus from U.S. markets. The United States remains the dominant destination for global capital, but marginal reallocations, even as small as 5%, are enough to significantly move prices in markets like Brazil.

As long as geopolitical uncertainty persists, commodities remain relevant, and Brazil’s real rates stay elevated, foreign capital is likely to keep flowing into Brazilian assets, supporting both the stock market and the currency.

Cost of living in Brazil: beef and gasoline prices soar

Completely insensitive to the difficulties of the poorest population, currently half of the Brazilian population with R$ 413,00 per month (about 100 dollars), the Minister of Agriculture, Tereza Cristina, told the website Poder360 that the "Brazilian consumer should get used to the increase. in the price of meat in recent months ". The high of this product since January 2019 was 5% to 26%, depending on the cut of meat.

The rising price of meat is being produced mainly due to rising Chinese demand, mainly after the swine fever led to the loss of 40% of the country's pork herd. For this reason, China started to buy more beef from many countries, including Brazil. This helped drive up prices.

Another central product for any economy that is experiencing high prices is gasoline. In recent weeks Petrobras has authorized a series of increases in the price of gasoline in refineries.

To make matters worse, the rise in the dollar price should also increase the prices of medicines in Brazil. This is because countless medications, although produced in Brazil, use imported inputs. The high dollar will make these inputs more expensive. As a result, laboratories will be under pressure on costs and will certainly pass on the dollar increase to consumers.

The US currency is on the rise after Brazil's Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said the advance of the US currency is not a concern. The US currency, in recent months, jumped from R$ 3.70, July 18, to R$ 4.24, on November 26, and has remained at that level since then.

Another unfortunate statement by Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes raises the dollar and demands intervention by the Brazilian Central Bank in the foreign exchange market

Tension in the foreign exchange market in Brazil is the headline of today's leading Brazilian newspapers (27.10.2019). The newspaper O Estado de São Paulo states that the high dollar brings uncertainty about prices in Brazil and the continuation of interest rate cuts adopted by the Central Bank in the last weeks. The newspaper Valor Econômico informs that Guedes's statements made the dollar rise and forced the Central Bank to take action. Finally, the newspaper O Globo states that Guedes's statements about exchange rates led the dollar to rise to R$ 4.24 in Brazil.

In addition to Guedes' absurd statement about the AI-5, Brazil's Economy Minister also said, according to Correio Brasiliense, that he is not worried about the dollar over R$ 4.20. According to Guedes, "It's good to get used to the higher exchange rates and lower interest rates for a long time."

According to Correio Brasiliense, "in the last five months, the Brazilian international reserves have reduced by US$ 22.7 billion and in the last 12 months, have left the country US $ 40 billion".

A report produced by Swiss bank UBS indicates that, if annualized, the outflow of dollars over the past three months would total $ 75 billion. According to the latest data available from the Central Bank, the volume of international reserves totaled US$ 369.8 billion on November 18, before the interventions made today by the Central Bank to contain the currency hike.

After heavy losses yesterday, Ibovespa operates slightly higher today; dollar remains above R$ 4.00 in Brazil

After falling almost 3% yesterday (02.10.2019), Ibovespa opened today's session with slightly positive performance, which helps to recover some of the recent losses.

Today (02.10.2019), the dollar continues to fall abroad, which, in turn, produces adjustments in the foreign exchange market in Brazil. This morning, in Brazil, the commercial dollar dropped by 0.25% to R $ 4.1235 in the purchase and to R $ 4.1442 in the sale. The futures dollar for November, in turn, fell 0.23% to R $ 4,127 this morning.

Yesterday, the dollar fell 0.67% to R$ 4,1344 on sale, the highest daily low for a close since September 11 (-0.76%) and the lowest since September 18 (R$ 4.1028).

Brazilian industrial production falls for the third consecutive month, according to IBGE; Dollar keeps rising in Brazil

The Brazilian industry recorded production losses in 11 of the 26 activities surveyed from June to July, according to the Monthly Industrial Survey data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In the global average, production fell 0.3%, the third month followed by a negative result, accumulating a loss of 1.2% in the period. Compared to July 2018, Brazilian industrial production fell 2.50%.

The drop in Brazilian industrial production indicates that the country entered the third quarter of 2019 in a bad scenario, as the accumulated industrial production of 2019 is negative: -1.7%. The scenario is therefore very difficult for the Brazilian economy. Brazilian economic activity is expected to remain very weak in 2019.

Meanwhile, yesterday the US currency rose 0.98% in Brazil and reached its highest rate since the historic record almost 1 year ago: R$ 4.1822. In Brazil, in August, the dollar rose 8.46%. Brazil lost only to Argentina, where the US currency rose 35.80% in the same period.

Cost of living in Brazil: IGP-M slows in July, a rising dollar and financial market betting massively on Selic interest rate cut

According to the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), the General Price Index - Market (IGP-M) decelerated to 0.40% in July after showing a high of 0.80% in June. With the July result, the IGP-M accumulated high of 4.79% in the year and 6.39% in 12 months.

Meanwhile, the Brazilian financial market is betting heavily on the 0.50% cut in the economy's base interest rate, the Selic, which is currently at 6.50%.

Some more cautious analysts believe that the Brazilian Central Bank, at the next Copom meeting to be held tomorrow, July 31, should cut Selic by only 0.25%, leaving the annual interest rate at 6.25% per year in Brazil.

The dollar price in Brazil closed again high yesterday, July 29. The US currency ended the day at 0.29% appreciation, selling at R$ 3.7830.

São Paulo Stock Exchange, the B3, rises 0.9% and reaches 100,303 points; Natura (NATU3) leads high

Shortly after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that he would keep interest rates in the US between 2.25% and 2.5% a year, the Ibovespa returned to reach 100,000 points today (19.June.2019) in Brazil. 

The commercial dollar, in turn, fell 0.25% today and reached R$ 3.85 in the sale. It was the second low followed by the currency and the lowest since April 10 (R$ 3,824) in 2019.

The shares of Natura (NATU3), a cosmetics company, rose 5.3% and led the highs in the Ibovespa today, after news that the cosmetics manufacturer got in court right to a tax benefit.

Natura obtained in the Federal Regional Court (TRF) of the 3rd Region, in São Paulo, the right to exclude up to 60% of its expenses from income tax and Social Contribution on Net Income (CSLL). technological research and development of technological innovation.

Meeting of the leaders of the three powers (executive, legislative and judicial) please the Brazilian financial market and helps to slow the dollar's rise

Today was a good day for the Brazilian financial market. Some facts pushed the Ibovespa positively.

Rodrigo Maia, the president of the Chamber of Deputies, asked Samuel Moreira, the rapporteur for the Pension Reform in Congress, to present the text of the Pension Reform proposal until June 15.
Maia wants the MPs to vote for the approval or not of the Pension Reform in the first half of 2019.

In addition, the meeting between representatives of the three Brazilian powers that took place today encouraged Brazilian investors. The representatives of the three powers have signed a pact with targets and actions for the resumption of growth in the country. The meeting was attended by President Jair Bolsonaro and the presidents of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, and the Supreme Court, Dias Toffoli.

I already wrote here in this blog that the "Brazilian Financial Markets (analysts and economists) and the Brazilian businessmen bet very high on a government that was not able to respond to the height to that bet".

Now the leaders of the three powers have begun to present a beginning of political negotiation. But some political analysts believe it may already be too late for that. There are many MPs uncomfortable with the constant attacks made by Bolsonaro, his political sons and his followers on social networks.

The dollar value continues to grow in Brazil and end the day at R$ 4.0360

The trading session of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa) closed with the dollar rising 0.47%, quoted at R$ 4.0360. In the previous trading session, on May 24, the currency was quoted at R$ 4.0170.

The support of thousands of protesters in various Brazilian cities in favor of Pension Reform and Jair Bolsonaro's government helped to optimize the Brazilian financial market. However, the demonstrations that took place on Sunday, May 26, were smaller than the demonstrations against the cuts made by the current government in the area of education, which occurred on May 15.

Among protesters who took to the streets to defend the government, there were criticisms against the Congress, the political establishment, and specially directed to the president of the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ).

The US political risk consultancy Eurasia evaluates that the actions in defense of Jair Bolsonaro can be positive for the advance of the Pension Reform.

Many analysts believe that this sequence of major anti-government and pro-government demonstrations points to a major political division in the country, which could become more acute if demonstrations continue to grow. The next demonstration against the government is scheduled for May 30.

The B3, the main indicator of the Bovespa, falls after Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes threatens to resign

Today, May 24, 2019, the Bovespa Index had its third consecutive day of low. B3's main share index rose more than 1% in the morning, but lost its force in the afternoon and closed 0.30% lower at 93,627.80 points.

This fall occurred after VEJA magazine published an exclusive interview in which the Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes, said he would resign if reform proposal becomes just a "little Pension Reform".

In the week, however, the Brazilian stock market was up 4.04%.

The dollar, on the other hand, closed today at R$ 4.0152, the lowest price in 10 days. The Brazilian Real was the emerging currency that strengthened the most on Friday in relation to the US currency.

Brazilian Congress does not advance in Pension Reform and Financial Market reacts badly

The Social Security reform ended up in the CCJ (Commission of Constitution and Justice) of the Chamber of Deputies. The draftsman of the text of the Pension Reform, Deputy Marcelo Freitas, did not appear in the session.

CCJ president Felipe Francischini, also from the party of the government of Jair Bolsonaro, the PSL, said that Freitas was at a meeting on the text of the Pension Reform, so he had failed. Nevertheless, Freitas had confirmed his presence in the session and, therefore, did not need to have a physical presence. Opposition MPs did not accept Francischini's response and went to the presiding board to pressure him. The session then became a big bustle and ended up being closed.

Freitas, who is from the government party, simply did not appear in Congress. This led to voting in the CCJ for after Easter.

That made the Ibovespa index, the main stock index of the country, to fall at the end of the day. Ibovespa fell 2% after a Social Security vote was postponed at CCJ. The dollar rose 1% and surpassed the R$ 3.94.

Dollar reaches R$ 4.00 and scares Brazilian economists

A public discussion between the President of the Republic Jair Bolsonaro and the president of the Chamber of Deputies Rodrigo Maia made the financial market nervous this week.

Yesterday, March 28, the tourism dollar reached R$ 4.20 and euro at R$ 4.70. As a result, the day was turbulent in the Brazilian financial market.

Today, March 29, the commercial dollar opened the session with a fall of 0.84%, being traded at R $ 3.8830 for sale and R $ 3.8810 for purchase.

To make matters worse, unemployment continues high despite improvements in recent months. In the quarter ended in February, the unemployment rate in Brazil was 12.4%, according to data from the National Survey for Continuous Household Sample (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua - PNAD) published today by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In the same period in 2018, the unemployment rate measured by PNAD was 12.6%.

According to Eduardo Moreira (former partner of Banco Pactual), there is a fugue of investors from  Brazil. For Moreira, a critic of the Bolsonaro administration, the first three months of government did not present any type of project and indicated a fragility in the president's capacity for articulation with the National Congress.