Brazil, Hong Kong and Singapore Help Boost U.S. Trade Surplus Under Trump in 2025

According to the United States government's official statistics, Brazil was one of the main contributors to the positive trade results of Donald Trump in 2025, together with the Asian financial centers of Hong Kong and Singapore.

During the first half of the last year, the U.S. enjoyed a trade and services surplus of US$9.2 billion with Brazil, making the country one of the most favored partners of Washington. Only the Netherlands stood above with a surplus of US$20 billion.

Nevertheless, according to a report by ICL, experts point out that the Dutch number is skewed by structural factors. A lot of products that are being imported to the European Union are recorded through the Port of Rotterdam, which leads to the U.S.-Netherlands trade figures being overstated. Also, the substantial impact of the financial services sector on the Dutch economy has a strong effect on the final balance.

Excluding these distortions, Brazil stands out, outperforming several major economies according. The U.S. posted a surplus of US$8.9 billion with Singapore, US$8.6 billion with Switzerland, and US$6.2 billion with Hong Kong. Other countries contributing to positive balances included the United Kingdom (US$5.4 billion), Australia (US$5.2 billion) and Saudi Arabia (US$3.3 billion).

Despite Trump’s aggressive efforts to shrink America’s trade gap, the U.S. continues to run large deficits with key manufacturing economies. The biggest shortfalls remain with Mexico (US$50.3 billion), Vietnam (US$44.2 billion), Taiwan (US$34.4 billion), China (US$33.1 billion) and Germany (US$15.8 billion).

Brazil’s role extends beyond services

When services are excluded and only goods trade is considered, Brazil again appears among the countries helping the U.S. narrow its deficit. Official figures from October show U.S. trade surpluses in goods with Switzerland (US$7.3 billion), the United Kingdom (US$6.8 billion), the Netherlands (US$5.1 billion), Hong Kong (US$2.8 billion) and Brazil (US$2.7 billion), ranking fifth.

By contrast, the U.S. continues to face a deep goods trade deficit, totaling US$17.9 billion with Mexico, US$15.7 billion with Taiwan, US$15 billion with Vietnam, and US$13 billion with China.

Brazilian Panettone Expands to Asia and Oceania, Reaching 50 Countries Worldwide

This year, Abimapi (the Brazilian Association of Biscuit, Pasta, and Industrialized Bread, Cake and Panettone Industries) is also celebrating the expansion of Brazilian panettone into new markets across Asia and Oceania, including Australia, China, Hong Kong, New Zealand, and Singapore.

Panettone is a traditional Italian sweet bread, originally from Milan, made with a soft, aromatic dough enriched with candied fruits and raisins and a distinctive vanilla aroma. Over time, it has become a symbol of the year-end holiday season in Brazil and around the world.

Overall, Brazilian panettone is now sold in around 50 countries across all continents

Tariffs, politics and partial rollbacks

The sharp increase in the U.S. surplus with Brazil occurred during a period when tariffs and trade barriers were imposed on Brazilian products. At the time, Trump framed the measures as retaliation over the treatment of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Over time, however, several of these tariffs were gradually lifted.

Even so, Brazilian exports still face minimum tariffs of around 10% to enter the U.S. market, while steel and other industrial products can be taxed at rates exceeding 25%.

Deficit narrows, but imbalance remains

According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the American economy still runs an overall trade deficit with the rest of the world. However, that gap has been shrinking rapidly since Trump expanded tariffs on both rivals and allies.

In October 2025, the U.S. trade deficit stood at US$29.4 billion, a sharp decline from US$48.1 billion in September, representing a reduction of US$18.8 billion in just one month.

Brazil's GDP growth to be the lowest in 120 years

A projection by the Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (Brazilian Institute of Economics) of the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Ibre/FGV) indicates that the average growth of the Brazilian economy should be only 0.9% per year between 2011 and 2020. If everything continues as it is, will have its weakest performance in 120 years.

According to Ibre/FGV analysis, the weak performance of the economy reflects the successive deficits in public accounts since 2014 and two consecutive years of recession in 2015 and 2016.

This rate is lower than the 1.6% of the so-called 'lost decade' in the 1980s when the Brazilian government declared a moratorium and suspended the payment of international creditors.

In 2015 Brazil's GDP fell by 3.5%. By 2016, the fall in GDP was 3.3%.

According to the Ibre/FGV researcher, Marcel Balassiano, the country would have to grow around 5.7% in 2019 and 2020 for this decade also not be considered a lost decade.

Overall, Brazil's economic recovery has been slow, the industry is struggling to catch up, and the Brazilian state is headed for a few more years of fiscal deficits.

Dollar reaches R$ 4.00 and scares Brazilian economists

A public discussion between the President of the Republic Jair Bolsonaro and the president of the Chamber of Deputies Rodrigo Maia made the financial market nervous this week.

Yesterday, March 28, the tourism dollar reached R$ 4.20 and euro at R$ 4.70. As a result, the day was turbulent in the Brazilian financial market.

Today, March 29, the commercial dollar opened the session with a fall of 0.84%, being traded at R $ 3.8830 for sale and R $ 3.8810 for purchase.

To make matters worse, unemployment continues high despite improvements in recent months. In the quarter ended in February, the unemployment rate in Brazil was 12.4%, according to data from the National Survey for Continuous Household Sample (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua - PNAD) published today by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In the same period in 2018, the unemployment rate measured by PNAD was 12.6%.

According to Eduardo Moreira (former partner of Banco Pactual), there is a fugue of investors from  Brazil. For Moreira, a critic of the Bolsonaro administration, the first three months of government did not present any type of project and indicated a fragility in the president's capacity for articulation with the National Congress.

Cost of living in Brazil: beans and potatoes

The rice and beans dish is a combination consumed daily by Brazilians. This dish is now more expensive because beans are now more expensive.

According to the Broad Consumer Price Index (Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo 15 - IPCA-15), the price of this basic item, which had already registered a 34.56% increase in February, rose 41.44% in March.

This was one of the reasons for the IPCA-E, which is the IPCA-15 accumulated quarterly, to be 1.18%, above the rate of 0.87% registered in the same period of 2018.

Another item that also had a price increase was the potato. The kilo of this product rose 12.39% in February and 25.59% in March.

As a result, previous official inflation in March (IPCA-15) showed a 0.54% increase in prices in relation to the previous month

Cost of living in Brazil in 2019

Inflation has rebounded in Brazil. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), official inflation accelerated to 0.43% in February 2019.

High food prices and school fees were the main factors for the month's high. In 12 months, the accumulated IPCA (National Wide Consumer Price Index) rose to 3.89%. Despite this rise in prices, inflation is below the government's target for 2019: 4.25%.

According to Fábio Romão, an economist at LCA Consultores, fuel prices are expected to pull up in inflation now in March.

The constant crisis produced by the current government and the possible difficulty to approve a profound Pension Reform may make a more moderate inflation picture unlikely.