Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's speech on national network scares investors

According to the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper, President Jair Bolsonaro's speech distorted the global scenario about Covid-19. According to the newspaper, the president "criticized the closure of schools and commerce, contradicted guidelines from health agencies and attacked governors".

For Alexandre Almeida, from CM Capital, the statement by President Jair Bolsonaro may scare investors because of his lack of connection with reality.

These statements immediately provoked repudiation by congressmen, governors, in the Judiciary and in different sectors of society. A few minutes later, the president of the Brazilian Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, released an official note stating that "Brazil needs serious leadership, responsible and committed to the life and health of the population".

The president's speech is the main subject of Brazilian newspapers today: O Estado de S. Paulo states that Bolsonaro criticizes confinement and wants stores and schools open; O Globo publishes that Bolsonaro ignores the world orientation and criticizes isolation and closed schools; Correio Braziliense reports that speech caused perplexity.

Federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of President Jair Bolsonaro, becomes the center of a diplomatic crisis, after publicly blaming China for the coronavirus pandemic; allies of the Brazilian president distance themselves and Bolsonaro and he could suffer impeachment, according to Senator Major Olímpio

Since Thursday (19.03.2020), the Chinese Embassy in Brazil and Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro have been harshly accusing each other on social media. The Embassy of China even published a Twitter saying that the parliamentarian's speech is “absurd and prejudiced”. It all started after Eduardo blamed China for the coronavirus pandemic. The president's son blamed the Chinese government and compared Covid-19 to the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

In Brazil, Eduardo Bolsonaro's speech was widely criticized by the media, by Brazilian citizens (on Twitter) and even by Brazilian Vice President Hamilton Mourão said that Eduardo Bolsonaro's criticisms of China do not represent the government's position.

However, it is impossible to dissociate Eduardo's speech from Jair Bolsonaro's ideas. The relationship between the current president of Brazil with China has always been very complicated. During the presidential campaign, in 2018, Bolsonaro even said that China should buy Brazilian products and not "buy Brazil". Then, in 2019, during a visit to China, Bolsonaro said he was visiting a "capitalist country". Now, a member of the Bolsonaro clan decides to enter diplomatic conflict with Brazil's largest trading partner. In 2019, the trade balance with the Asian country had a surplus of another 30 billion dollars: Brazil exported 65.3 billion dollars, and imported 35.8 billion dollars.

Isolated government

According to the Congresso em Foco website, "President Jair Bolsonaro is losing support in the National Congress and in Brazilian society. Surrounded by daily national demonstrations, he is increasingly isolated.

In an exclusive interview with Congresso em Foco, a faithful ally to the president, the leader of the PSL in the Senate, Major Olimpio (SP), "says that decisive segments for the election of Bolsonaro in 2018, such as agribusiness, public security professionals and evangelicals, represented by the most influential benches in Congress, are distancing themselves from the president because of dissatisfaction with his government. Investors, he notes, also do not feel safe to bet on the country, due to the political instability created almost always by the president himself and your children".

Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) suffers from Saudi Arabia's decision to drop the price of oil below US$ 30 to harm Russia/; Vale shares (VALE3) falls 10%

The disputes between Saudi Arabia and Russia over oil prices collapsing. In addition to this dispute, there is also a decline in product consumption due to the new coronavirus, which has been pushing the global economy into recession, a movement that should catch Brazil in a very fragile situation. Analysts say the crisis between the government and Congress, the target of a demonstration encouraged by President Jair Bolsonaro, scheduled for March 15, increases distrust of the country.

2019 is going to be a tough year for Petrobras. Due to the economic effects of Conav-19, there was a drop of 24% in the international price of oil. This led the Brazilian state-owned company to lose about 80 billion reais in market value on the Brazilian stock exchange B3 until 06.03.2020.

Now, with the dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia influencing oil prices, even more, Petrobras has been hit again. Since the beginning of the year, Petrobras has seen the prospect of annual cash generation falling by 20 billion dollars.

Earlier today, the Ibovespa registered a sharp drop in Petrobras' shares (PETR3; PETR4), which fell 23%; Vale (VALE3), which fell 8%; and banks, which also fell 8% as oil prices plunged up to 30% after Saudi Arabia lowered the prices of the commodity and with projections of a drop of up to $ 20 a barrel.

According to the website Infomoney, "Petrobras' ADRs, on the NYSE pre-market, dropped by up to 20%, Vale's were down 22% and Itaú's were down by around 10% on a day of a general downturn in the stock market".

Earlier this morning, the Brent-type oil futures contract, which serves as a benchmark for the prices charged by Petrobras, dropped 19.9% to 36 dollars a barrel on the London Stock Exchange.

According to Iedi, Brazilian industry got smaller and smaller in the last 50 years

A survey by the Institute for Industrial Development Studies (Iedi) indicated that Brazil had the third-largest retraction in the industrial sector among 30 countries since 1970, trailing only Australia and the United Kingdom.

Industrial production, the main factor in the development of a country, has lost more space in the Brazilian productive structure. Currently, this sector presents numbers at the same levels as those of the 1910s.

According to the IBGE, after two years of growth, Brazilian industrial production fell by 1.1% in 2019. In the last 50 years, the participation of the Brazilian industrial sector in the national GDP has shrunk from 21.4% to 12.6%.

The El País website reports that "data released this Wednesday (March 4, 2020) reveal that the crisis that has been going on in the Brazilian industry for years has shown no signs of improvement. In the last three months of last year, the industrial sector remained stagnant and advanced 0.1% compared to the previous period.

According to El País, "the retraction further reinforces the downward trend in the participation of the manufacturing industry, responsible for converting raw materials into production and consumption goods, in GDP in recent years. In 2019, the sector that encompasses the plastics, food, beverages, metallurgy, textile industry, among others, represented only 11% of economic activity. Two decades ago, activity accounted for more than 15% of GDP. In 1970, the participation was 21.4%".

Fed cuts interest rates and Covid-19 may lead Brazilian Central Bank to rethink monetary policy and cut interest rates again in Brazil

The Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to cut interest rates led the Brazilian Central Bank to practically discard the minutes of the institution's last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). In it, the Brazilian Central Bank indicated the end of the process of cutting the basic interest rate (Selic), which currently stands at 4.25% per year, the lowest level in the country's history.

Yesterday, the Brazilian Central Bank issued a new note in which it indicates that the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) may reduce the interest rate again. This change in Brazilian monetary policy intends to further slow the country's economy, mainly due to the unfolding of the economic crisis generated by the new coronavirus (Covid-19).

Meanwhile, in Brazil, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes insists on long-term reforms (pension reform, administrative reform, and tax reform) to combat short-term economic issues (coronavirus and Fed interest rate cuts).

Concurrently, in Brazil, rains on the coast of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro cause the death of 19 people and leave hundreds homeless. The labor market in Brazil, according to IBGE, continues to break records in the growth of informality. For this reason, according to the IBGE, "since 2016, the country has shown a drop in the proportion of the employed population that contributes to a social security institute". This may result in the effects of the Pension Reform not having the results expected by the government.

According to a study by the Instituto Socioambiental (ISA), deforestation of Indigenous lands in Brazil increased in a scary way in 2019

According to a study made by the Instituto Socioambiental (ISA), deforestation is exploding in territories with the presence of isolated Indigenous peoples in the Amazon. Data from the Instituto Socioambiental (ISA) point out that, "in 2019, the cutting of the forest in these lands grew 113%. In the total of all the Indigenous Lands (TIs), the increase was 80%". 

The figures are in an ISA report that will be presented today (03.03.2020), at the Human Rights Commission of the United Nations (UN).

The survey indicates that 42,679 hectares were illegally destroyed in 2019, the first year of the Jair Bolsonaro government, which considerably reduced environmental control policies in the country, which, in turn, contributed to the reduction of inspection, the increase in deforestation in public lands and, consequently, the violation of the rights of Indigenous peoples.

According to the report presented by ISA, "the outlook for isolated Indigenous peoples in Brazil, therefore, is devastating. With the explosion of deforestation and the destruction of forests and the advance of illicit practices, such as mining, illegal logging and land grabbing of land, the existence of these groups is seriously threatened".