Although he proclaims himself liberal, Paulo Guedes, the economy minister of the Brazilian government, studies liberating up to 35% of the FGTS to stimulate the economy

The idea is to give money to the population for it to warm the economy. This proposal of heterodox shock, in the best Keynesian model, is of the ultra-liberal Paulo Guedes.

In addition to the release of the FGTS funds (the FGTS is a savings intended for the Brazilian worker. The fund aims to ensure the worker in difficult situations, such as dismissal without just cause), there will also be another round of PIS / Pasep withdrawals. The objective of the plan is to try to revive the economy, via consumption, still in 2019 - the government projection is GDP growth of 0.81%. The Ministry of the Economy wants to allow workers to get up to 35% of the resources of their active accounts of the Working Time Guarantee Fund. The measure is expected to inject up to R$ 42 billion in the economy.

Guedes, faced with increasingly blatant evidence that the current stagnation of the Brazilian economy occurs due to a chronic lack of demand, decides to adopt an openly Keynesian policy.

But even the economists who are progressive and close to the Brazilian left-wing believe that the measure is insufficient to remove the country from the crisis. According to economist Laura Carvalho, "such effects will be temporary and insufficient to counteract the negative impact of cutting public investments and the global slowdown on our economy."

However, economist Laura Carvalho also points to the difference between Guedes' speeches during the political campaign and his actual role as minister.

Carvalho points out that the ultra-liberal Guedes, during the presidential campaign held in 2018 in Brazil, made a "discourse filled with cliché ultra-liberal solutions, among them the radical flexibilization of labor laws, tax cuts for entrepreneurs, privatization of all public assets and indiscriminate commercial opening as a way to guarantee economic growth and job creation. " Now, faced with the reality of the Brazilian economy, Guedes decides to adopt "a measure whose rationality is supported by the Keynesian multiplier of autonomous spending."

The same happened with the government of the also liberal Maurício Macri, in Argentina. In power, he adopted unorthodox measures in the economic area.

Brazilian GDP should decrease in the second quarter, says IFI (Independent Fiscal Institution)

The IFI (Independent Fiscal Institution), an organization linked to the Brazilian Federal Senate, published a report in which it suggests a new GDP decrease (Gross Domestic Product) in 2019. In the first 3 months of the year, there was a reduction of 0.2%.

If the report published on June 15, 2019, Brazil would be returning to live in a recession, when there have been two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP in relation to the previous quarter.

According to the report, Brazilian industrial production "remains constrained by uncertainties and weak external demand, while confidence indicators indicate consumer and business pessimism, especially with future economic conditions."

For Affonso Celso Pastore, president of the Public Policy Debate Center and the AC Pastore consultancy, Brazil today has "a per capita income that is 9% below the threshold it was at the beginning of the recessive cycle (2014), and that is, we can not expect family consumption to be a driving force in the economy. The country has a very large idle capacity in the industry, and the maturing of infrastructure investments is long (it takes time), so we do not we have the investment being a driving force. We also do not have an impulse from exports. And finally, it is not possible to use fiscal stimuli because the government is doing the opposite, it is making an adjustment, is cutting spending".

To make matters worse, according to economist Rosa Chieza, from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil today has a "tax burden of 32%, a taxpayer that receives up to R $ 2,000 earmarking almost 50% of its income While we have a huge gap in taxation on income and equity, we need to put more slots in the income tax table, increase the exemption rate, but raise the tax rate, as it spends all its income on consumption of goods and services. a maximum rate of 27.5% to 40%, in order to reduce inequality, while also we charge more from profits and dividends."

Right-wing political struggle in Brazil: radio policy programming breeds Twitter clash with hashtag #BandLixo and criticism of political commentators Reinaldo Azevedo and Marco Antônio Villa

The right-wing in Brazil is in conflict. Groups linked to President Jair Bolsonaro began to criticize right-wing political commentators who, in turn, criticized the current government.

Political commentator Reinaldo Azevedo, who was a fervent critic of the center-left government of the Workers' Party (PT), criticized very strongly the disorganization of the government of Jair Bolsonaro, especially as regards the lack of ability of political negotiation of the current president.

Azevedo, who calls himself a liberal critic of the current administration, began acting along with the Intercept Brasil website in the publication of reports about the performance of the current Minister of Justice, Sergio Moro when he was the judge responsible for the trial of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

According to Azevedo, "if there is a law, Lula's conviction is null," because, after the leaks made by The Intercept Brazil had shown, Moro would not have respected "due process of law."

These criticisms of Azevedo led Bolsonaro's most loyal voters to treat the commentator as an adversary.

The same happened with the political commentator Marco Antônio Villa, who worked on the Jovem Pan radio. Jovem Pan commentators criticized the Workers Party government very much. Villa was one of the most emphatic critics.

With the arrival of Bolsonaro to power, Villa, who is a historian and university professor, started to criticize the government a lot, especially in relation to the confusion that took care of the Ministry of Education.

The radio finally fired Villa. Many have seen the dismissal as a pursuit of the radio to the government critic since the radio editorially can be placed on the right-wing of Brazilian media.

Now, another important Brazilian radio, Bandeirantes, the same one in which Azevedo works, decides to hire Villa. This prompted Bolsonaro's supporters to launch the hashtag #BandLixo (something like "Band Garbage" in English).

Both Villa and Azevedo are part of the commentators of the Brazilian political right. 

Now, another important Brazilian radio, Bandeirantes, the same one in which Azevedo works, decides to hire Villa. This prompted Bolsonaro's supporters to launch the hashtag #BandLixo.

Both Villa and Azevedo are part of the commentators of the Brazilian political right. Government supporters have used the hashtag #BandLixo to disagree with Villa's comments made on his first day as a political commentator on the radio's morning news program. They also criticize Fabio Pannunzio, a journalist for the radio station, who called the pro-Bolsonaro Brazilian right-wing supporters "Nazis".

Ibovespa (B3) closed the day at 103,802 points and fell 0,1%

Following the falls on Thursday and Friday of last week, the Brazilian financial market closed again in decline. The prospect of approval of the Pension Reform in the second half of 2019 only helped to slow the São Paulo Stock Exchange.

According to the G1 website, Ibovespa, B3, "closed down this Monday (15.Jul.2019), with an eye on the local scenario after approval of the main text of the pension reform in the first round in the House and with the definition that the second round will take place only in August."

According to the Focus Bulletin, released today, the Brazilian economy is expected to grow by only 0.81% in 2019. Economists interviewed by the Brazilian Central Bank for the Focus Bulletin have reduced for the twentieth time the Brazilian GDP growth forecast in 2019.

The financial market in Brazil warms up after first approval of Social Security Reform

For many analysts, medium and long-term capital must begin to reach the Brazilian economy should the approval of the Pension Reform continue and be approved by the National Congress.

If approval occurs, for analysts, Brazil should grow again in 2020. According to the head of the Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE) of the Ministry of Economy, Adolfo Sachsida, if the reforms are approved, the government will propose a productivity agenda. Sachsida believes that this could make the economy grow again at a faster pace, from 3% to 4% a year, in the long run.

Despite the government's goodwill, very weak data from industry, commerce, and services in Brazil, the main engines of economic growth in the country, point to a fall in Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter of 2019. This means that Brazil can return to a recessionary scenario later this year.

According to Valor Econômico newspaper, real economic data indicate that Brazil "has not been able to recover from the recession, it has 13.3 million unemployed, of whom one in four has been seeking jobs for more than two years. % of installed capacity is idle, 210 thousand commercial companies closed their doors in four years and 6 thousand companies demanded judicial reorganization. The negative effects of the 2014-2016 depression on the Brazilian economy were stronger and went on much longer than expected".

After 20 years of negotiations, Mercosur and the European Union seal a historical agreement

After twenty years of negotiations, Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay) and the European Union have concluded a free trade agreement between the two blocs. The new pact between the two blocs will bring together economies that together account for around 25% of world GDP and a market of 780 million people.

The free trade agreement could represent an increase of US $ 87.5 billion of the Brazilian GDP in 15 years. It covers both tariff and regulatory issues such as services, government procurement, trade facilitation, technical barriers, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and intellectual property.

Paradoxically, the agreement is a blow to politicians opposed to globalization such as the current Brazilian chancellor Ernesto Araújo, who has already said he would fight to reverse globalization.

However, both Araújo and President Jair Bolsonaro celebrated the agreement reached today between Mercosur and the European Union.

It is very strange, to say the least, that a government in which the Minister of Economy said publicly that Mercosur would not be a priority in the new government, and the chancellor openly criticizes what he calls "globalism" and says that Europe is a "culturally empty space" is now celebrating this deal.

Inflation slows in Brazil due to the economic crisis and the truck drivers strike

Inflation fell from 4.83% to 3.84% in the accumulated of the last 12 months. However, this drop was mainly caused by the truck drivers' strike in 2018 and the economic slowdown that brought down consumption within the country.

Thus, inflation in Brazil, which had accelerated in the first four months of 2019, seems to be giving a truce in the last two months, according to data released by IBGE. After the scares of March and April, when the IPCA, official index of inflation, reached 0.75% and 0.57%, respectively, in May the rise slowed to 0.13%.

As a result, the National Monetary Council (CMN) decided to lower the inflation target by 3.5% to 2022. The target will have a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points, more or less, and the inflation target will be considered fulfilled if the index stays between 2% and 5%.

According to the G1 website, between 2005 and 2018, the inflation target in Brazil "was maintained at 4.5%. In the following years, it was reduced by 0.25 percentage points each year, from 4.25% in 2019 to 3.75% by 2021."

Now, the Brazilian Central Bank should seek even lower inflation. The mistake of the government here is to present absolutely no policy to combat the economic stagnation and the unemployment that reaches millions of people. As a result, this situation is likely to persist in the coming months.

An alternative to this would be to keep the inflation target at 4.25% and reduce interest rates to try to stimulate investment, but even now, this seems insufficient because of the government's delay in presenting any plan to change this scenario of economic stagnation.

The financial market in Brazil is negatively impacted by the political disagreements of the current government

The political swoops between President Jair Bolsonaro and his ministers with the National Congress are worrying Brazilian investors. The Social Security Reform has been going a long way because of the efforts of the mayor of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia. However, Maia and other deputies involved in the Reformation continue to have disagreements with the government of Jair Bolsonaro. Most of these disagreements arise because of the complete lack of political ability of the federal government.

According to the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper, this political disarticulation added to the "pressure of parties and the lobby of public servants impinges" the Pension Reform.

#MarchaDoPo and #Dia30VemPraRua divide Twitter in Brazil

The case of a drug seizure in Spain on a Brazilian Air Force (FAB) aircraft is sharing opinions in Brazil. Groups that support the current Brazilian government announced demonstrations for June 30, 2019 (Dia 30 Vem Pra Rua).

Already opponents and critics of the current government are calling this manifestation of March of the Dust (Marcha do Pó), in reference to the cocaine seized with the military that was part of the support team to the Bolsonaro entourage.

Even with the president and other members of the government saying that the military involved in the case should be tried "without condescension" in Spain and Brazil, there are many opponents trying to link the apprehension to the current government.

The mainstream media in Brazil, however, is pointing to the undeniable security flaw of a government packed with military personnel and a speech to combat drug trafficking.

Voting for Pension Reform postponed in Brazil; according to Ibope, Bolsonaro's popularity falls

The rapporteur for the pension reform bill, deputy Samuel Moreira, said that despite the postponement of the special committee session in the House, he believes that the Pension Reform proposal will be voted by the Chamber of Deputies before the July recess.

But with each passing day, it becomes more difficult for the vote to take place. Today, for example, Members decided to postpone the reading of the rapporteur's supplementary vote, which was scheduled for today (27.jun.2019).

The Pension Reform is struggling because of the inability of the government of President Jair Bolsonaro to participate actively and positively in political negotiations. The president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, has been the main responsible for the progress of the Pension Reform.

An example of this difficulty is the position of MP Marcelo Ramos (PL-AM), who is chair of the special committee for the Pension Reform, which reacted very poorly to the knowledge that the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, said that the Congress is " a machine of corruption. " Ramos said he "has no respect" for Guedes anymore.

Ramos also said that "the government does not have an agenda, and because it has no agenda, it needs to adopt a diversionary attitude, it has no agenda to face the country's structural problem, which is 12.7 million unemployed, GDP below 1%. the way is a diversion, talk of three-pronged, gun-carrying, things that draw attention to the economic disaster that is the first six months of the Bolsonaro administration."

To make matters worse, new research indicates the popularity of Jair Bolsonaro. According to the Ibope, the rate of disapproval of the way the president governs rose from 40% to 48%. In April, 51% approved the management. Now the percentage fell to 46%.

In less than six months of government, the percentage of those assessing the government as bad has risen from 27 percent to 32 percent in June, and the population evaluating the government as good dropped from 35 percent to 32 percent. Therefore, the current government has growing disapproval.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro rebuts German Chancellor Angela Merkel and says that Germans 'have much to learn' with Brazil

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is in Osaka, Japan, for the G20 summit, rebuffed German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who expressed concern about Brazil's environmental policy and said the country's situation is dramatic. For Bolsonaro, Brazilians "have an example to give to Germany about the environment. Their industry is still fossil. It's part of coal. Not ours. They have to learn a lot from us".

According to the journalist Glenn Greenwald, "German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she views what is taking place in Brazil under Bolsonaro with great concern - as 'dramatic'- due to the threats he poses both to basic human rights and the environment".

The environmental policy of the Bolsonaro government should be the biggest drag on Brazil during the G20 meeting in Japan. It is not only Germany that is pressing Brazil in relation to the environmental policies of the Bolsonaro government. The French government, for example, has been one of the toughest in the talks on the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The main French argument is the fact that Brazil does not seem committed to the Paris Agreement – by which nations have committed themselves to meet pollution reduction targets.

To make matters worse, in an interview with BBC News Brazil, Brazil's Environment Minister Ricardo Salles said that the Brazilian government will insist on the message that it is necessary to explore the economic possibilities of the Amazon, diversifying the activities inside and around the Amazon Rainforest.

For most environmentalists, the minister's speech was received as more deforestation and damage to the Amazon Rainforest.