Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approved the Social Security Reform in the second round; text now goes to the Senate

Pension reform is expected to produce savings of approximately R$ 900 billion over the next 10 years. This number is very close to what the Brazilian financial market expected. Now the text of the Reformation goes to the Senate, but it shouldn't change much.

Even with the approval of the Pension Reform, analysts believe that the year 2019 is already lost. That is, the Brazilian economy must remain stagnant or with very low growth until the end of the year.

The basic interest rate cut of the Brazilian economy, Selic, should continue. The Brazilian Central Bank, through the Copom, cut interest rates from 6.5 to 6% per year. Analysts believe the Copom should cut interest rates again to 5.5% at the next meeting, or at least cut interest rates by 0.25% to 5.75%.

Petrobras (PETR4; PETR3) studies creating two new companies for its thermoelectric plants and transportation to make IPOs on Bovespa (B3); for Goldman Sachs, Petrobras presented "positive news about pre-salt cost efficiency"

According to Jornal do Comércio, Petrobras intends to create two new companies to enable the sale of part of its transportation and energy assets. The information was given by directors of the state and the president Roberto Castello Branco in a meeting with market analysts. 

The strategy is that these companies group several assets to be offered in the stock market through an IPO similar to that made with BR Distribuidora (BRDT3), which generated almost R $ 9.6 billion.

Goldman Sachs analysts published a report following a meeting with Petrobras President and Chief Financial Officer Andrea Almeida highlighting “positive news about pre-salt cost efficiency”. For them, the Brazilian state managed to achieve, in the most recently developed platforms, an extraction cost as low as $ 4 per barrel, or 33% below the pre-salt average in the second quarter of 2019.

The financial market in Brazil celebrates the approval of runoff of Pension Reform by the House of Representatives; Copom report presented by the Brazilian Central Bank's points toward the perspective for new cuts in the basic economy rates, the Selic

After a vote of 370 votes in favor and 124 against, the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approved the Social Security Reform. Highlights will now be voted on, which may change some points of the approved text.

According to the website Poder360, The Central Bank announced through the report of the last Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting that the basic interest rate may fall again in the coming months. At the committee's last meeting, interest rates fell from 6,5 to 6 percent a year. This is the lowest rate in the historical series.

According to a study by economist Affonso Celso Pastore, the Brazilian economy will take a long time to improve. Latest indicators worry and point to impending economic recession. To make matters worse, weak data on Brazilian industry, trade, and services, the main drivers of the country's growth, point to a fall in Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter of 2019.

Therefore, even with the prospect of interest rate cuts by Copom, the tendency is for the Brazilian economy to continue at a very weak pace.

Brazilian financial market bets on the approval of the Social Security Reform in the second-round vote in the Chamber of Deputies; Tax Reform would be next step

However, there is a possibility of weakening in the text of the Social Security Reform, which aims to save around 900 billion reais in 10 years. Now in the second round, MPs cannot include new passages in the text but may remove parts of the text, which could reduce the total saved.

For most analysts, the Brazilian National Congress must now turn its attention to a Tax Reform. Yesterday, the presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate announced that they will present a single proposal for tax reform.

According to many Brazilian economists, despite this positive movement of the National Congress to work to present reforms with Social Security, there is still no guarantee of the resumption of economic growth.

Now, for analysts, Brazil needs beyond tax reform, improving the business environment, advancing infrastructure projects and promoting the opening of the economy.

Cost of living in Brazil: Petrobras (PETR4) announces a reduction in gas price, but the measure does not reach consumers; Vale (VALE3) and Petrobras (PETR3) pull Brazilian GDP down

The National Union of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Distribution Companies (Sindigás) reported that Petrobras will reduce the price of gas by up to 12% for residential consumption and up to 17% for corporate consumption. Brazilian refineries will practice the reduction in prices from today, August 5.

In Brazil, cooking gas (LPG) is usually sold in 13 kg canisters for residential use and in packages over 13 kg for business use. However, it is still unclear how the measure can cheapen cooking gas. The fall in the price for the end consumer depends on a number of factors, such as an infrastructure that allows the effective reduction of the gas price and that does not exist in Brazil.

According to the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea), Vale and Petrobras' performance in the first half of 2019 helped push Brazilian GDP down.

According to Ipea, the poor performance of the Brazilian extractive industry in the first half will decrease by 0.2 percentage point the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion of 2019, despite the expected improvement until the end of the year.

The newspaper Folha de S.Paulo states that Brazilian Justice Minister Sérgio Moro omitted money received for giving a lecture in his accountability when he was a judge; Minister stated that the registration was made later; hashtag #MoroSonegador (meaning "Moro evader") gains momentum on Twitter

In yet another article based on alleged messages from members of the Lava Jato task force from The Intercept Brasil, the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo states that Moro omitted a paid account at the time he was a federal judge.

According to the newspaper, judges have a period of one month to inform their participation in the events and must record the date, subject, place, and entity they organized. Based on the messages, the report points to a talk Moro would not have recorded in his accountability. The minister told Folha that the omission of the event 'may have occurred by pure lapse'. In a Tweet, Moro also states that the registration was made later, in 2017.

Industrial production in Brazil falls 0.6% in June 2019 and has a second negative month in a row

Brazilian industry fell by 0.6% in June 2019, following a decrease of 0.1% in May 2019. The loss of pace in the sector reflects the reduction in production in 17 out of 26 activities and in all major economic categories of goods. intermediary, consumer, and capital markets.

The Brazilian industrial sector accounted for 25% of GDP in 1985. Now represents about 13%.

According to the website O Cafezinho, for the Institute for Industrial Development Studies (IEDI), between 1980 and 2017, the Brazilian manufacturing industry grew by only 24%, while the world industry grew by 204% and the world excluding China increased by 135%. The United States grew at the same pace as the world outside China. Most developing countries grew above the world economy and most developed countries below. The Chinese case is unique because China has increased the size of its industrial park by more than 40 times. South Korea has increased 17 times, Indonesia and India 12 times, Malaysia and Ireland 11 times.

To Ha-Joon Chang, professor of economics at Cambridge University, "Brazil is experiencing one of the largest deindustrializations in the history of economics."

The participation of industry in the Brazilian GDP has been falling since 1986. It is deeply necessary for Brazil to grow again, to combat poverty again and to stop deindustrialization.

The government needs to re-engage in an industrial policy aimed, for example, at the Oil and Gas industries, the health industrial complex, the agribusiness industry (creating a favorable scenario for the emergence of industries of agricultural supplements, fertilizers, etc.), integrating the Brazilian industry with the whole of international trade.

Government forces suppress a group of 180 Kinikinaus Indians protesting for demarcation of land in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, in Brazil

A group of Kinikinawa Indians occupied a farm in the Aquidauana region today, August 2, 2019. Military Police (MP) were called in and used rubber bullets against the Indians. Many Indians were injured. Funai follows the situation.

Opposition Senator Humberto Costa said, "Police were tough on cracking down on the 180 Kinikinaus Indians who protested in favor of demarcating the land." According to Costa, "Under @jairbolsonaro, Funai refuses to say that there was conflict. The victims, many of them children, know what happened."

Em Aquidauana, no Mato Grosso do Sul, a polícia foi dura na repressão a 180 índios Kinikinaus que protestavam em favor da demarcação de terras. Sob @jairbolsonaro, a Funai se recusa a falar que houve conflito. As vítimas, muitas delas crianças, sabem o que houve. pic.twitter.com/68luC57oIQ

— Humberto Costa (@senadorhumberto) August 2, 2019

According to information from the website O Pantaneiro, the natives arrived at the site at dawn, claiming that they owned the land. The group asked the ranch owner and his wife to leave immediately.

Majority of Brazilians is against president Jair Bolsonaro's proposal to release mineral exploration in Brazil Indigenous areas

A survey by the Datafolha Institute points out that 86% of the Brazilian population disagrees with President Jair Bolsonaro's plan to open mineral exploration in Indigenous areas.

According to Datafolha, the survey was conducted between June 4 and 6, with 2,088 interviews distributed in 168 municipalities in all regions of the country. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points with a confidence level of 95%.

For environmentalists, the president's bill, which aims to release regulation of indigenous land mining, if approved, will increase the number of illegal mines on indigenous land.

A report released in late 2018 by the Amazon Georeferenced Socioenvironmental Information Network (Raisg) identified illegal mining sites in 18 indigenous reserve areas in Brazil.

For the indigenous leader, Almir Suruí, President Jair Bolsonaro's project was done without the participation of traditional populations in the discussion of the project. According to him, the project "is an environmental, social and economic setback in the country. We have not been consulted. We do not know what climate and environmental impacts this activity may have."

After cutting the basic interest rate from 6.5% to 6% per year, Selic, by Copom, the Brazilian Central Bank takes a more "dovish" stance

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Brazilian Central Bank reduced from 6.5% to 6% per year the basic interest rate, the Selic rate. The cut aims to increase the possibility of further economic growth in Brazil.

According to bank XP, the ruling shows that the central bank has taken a more "dovish" stance, that is, more lenient about inflation.

For professor Paulo Feldmann, from USP's School of Economics, Administration, and Accounting (FEA), “average income has fallen a lot, 1.3% a year ago. If we consider that in this period there was inflation around 5%, the fall in average income is even greater, around 6%. That is, people have less income to consume.”

Feldmann believes that reducing to Selic is not enough. For him, "the Brazilian Central Bank should act by forcing a reduction in interest rates for loans to both individuals and companies. It is very illusory to think that now that Selic has fallen to 6% Brazil will grow."

According to IBGE, unemployment in Brazil falls 0.7% in the quarter ending in June of 2019, average worker income decreased, and the number of informal workers increased

According to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the unemployment rate in the country was 12% in the quarter ending June 2019. Now, the total number of unemployed Brazilians is 12.8 million. The index fell 0.7% compared to the quarter between January and March and fell 0.4% compared to the same period last year. On the other hand, the number of self-employed workers hit a record of the historical series, which began in 2012, and reached 24.1 million. The number rose 1.6% from the previous quarter and 5% from the same period of 2018. Therefore, informality in Brazil remains very high by world standards.

The figure released by IBGE indicates that the number of discouraged and underutilized Brazilians has been attenuating the number of unemployed, which serves to mask the reality. If we add to this group the self-employed workers and those still receiving unemployment insurance even with this small increase in the number of employees in Brazil, the scenario remains practically stagnant.

The usual average income of the Brazilian population fell in the same period, reaching R$ 2,290, 1.3% less than in the previous quarter and without significant variation with the same period last year.

In the quarter ending June, Brazil had more than 28 million unemployed people and approximately 5 million despondent people, that is, those workers who gave up looking for work and therefore left unemployment statistics.