Cost of living in Brazil: inflation was 0,11% in August, according to IBGE

According to data from the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), released today by the IBGE, August inflation in Brazil slowed to 0.11%, after registering high of 0.19% in July.

The IBGE indicated a deflation in the Food & Beverage (-0.35%) and Transport (-0.39%) groups. Housing, with a high of 1.19%, was the group that positively pressured inflation. Thus, official inflation in Brazil was 0.11% in August and 3.43% in the last 12 months.

According to data from the National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea), vehicle production in Brazil fell 7.3% in August. Industry exports plunged 34.6% in August 2019 compared to August 2018.  This result was greatly impacted by the crisis in Argentina, the largest buyer of cars produced in Brazil.

This scenario, coupled with the very weak performance of the Brazilian economy, reinforces the idea that 2019 may have a negative GDP in Brazil.

Brazilian agricultural production value hits record: R$ 343.5 billion

According to the Municipal Agricultural Survey (PAM) 2018, released today by IBGE, the value of Brazilian agricultural production hit a record and reached R $ 343.5 billion in 2018, an increase of 8.3% compared to 2017.

Growth was driven by higher commodity prices such as soybeans (13.6%), cotton (52.3%) and coffee (22%), in a year when the grain crop fell 4.7% and the harvested area 0.5%. Despite the favorable results, the 2017 grain surplus was not exceeded in 2018, mainly due to the 16% decrease in Brazil's corn production.

According to the IBGE, "trade disputes between the United States and China, crop failures in Argentina and Chinese demand for herbaceous cotton have boosted the prices of major Brazilian commodities".

Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso, and Paraná were the states with the highest value of agricultural production in 2018 in Brazil.

Brazilian Environment Minister Ricardo Salles gives an interview to a white Canadian supremacist

Canadian YouTuber Stefan Molyneux published on his social networks, on the last day 2.09.2019, an interview with the Brazilian Minister of Environment, Ricardo Salles. The video lasts 24 minutes. In them, both speak of the recent environmental crisis involving the burning of the Amazon rainforest. 

Molyneux, however, is known for being a supporter of white supremacist ideas as well as free liberalism of state regulation. 

The interview is very revealing, as it indicates that Salles, who has decided to tackle countries like Germany and Norway, which were helping to protect the Amazon through the money they sent to the Amazon Fund, is willing to use part of his time to give an interview for an obscure social media figure rather than negotiating with the nations mentioned.

The interview points to the amateurism of the current administration, which, amid an unprecedented environmental crisis, makes accusations against possible international partners and approaches controversial figures, to say the least, and of no political importance like Stefan Molyneux.

Prior to being appointed to the post of the environment minister, Salles, like Molyneux, was a minor and controversial figure in Brazilian politics. Prior to being minister, Ricardo Salles was a federal deputy candidate for the ultra-liberal Partido Novo. During the campaign, Salles used social networks to spread messages that incited violence.

Salles's candidacy number was 30-06 in allusion to a type of ammunition, which he in his messages promised to use to combat the "boar plague" and "against the left and the MST", Landless Workers' Movement.

The Partido Novo itself disapproved of Salles's publications during the campaign. In recent weeks, the Partido Novo has tried to explain that Salles, who remains a member of the Partido Novo, did not represent the party in the federal government. Paradoxically, the Partido Novo supports the government in House votes, has a cabinet minister, but publicly says it has no connection with Jair Bolsonaro.

These are not the only problems represented by Salles, in December 2018, he was convicted of administrative misconduct and had his political rights suspended for three years. The sentence, handed down by Judge Fausto José Martins Seabra, Salles allegedly committed, when he was secretary of the environment of the government of São Paulo, various irregularities and disarray that could harm the environment.

Brazilian industrial production falls for the third consecutive month, according to IBGE; Dollar keeps rising in Brazil

The Brazilian industry recorded production losses in 11 of the 26 activities surveyed from June to July, according to the Monthly Industrial Survey data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In the global average, production fell 0.3%, the third month followed by a negative result, accumulating a loss of 1.2% in the period. Compared to July 2018, Brazilian industrial production fell 2.50%.

The drop in Brazilian industrial production indicates that the country entered the third quarter of 2019 in a bad scenario, as the accumulated industrial production of 2019 is negative: -1.7%. The scenario is therefore very difficult for the Brazilian economy. Brazilian economic activity is expected to remain very weak in 2019.

Meanwhile, yesterday the US currency rose 0.98% in Brazil and reached its highest rate since the historic record almost 1 year ago: R$ 4.1822. In Brazil, in August, the dollar rose 8.46%. Brazil lost only to Argentina, where the US currency rose 35.80% in the same period.

CNPq scholarship cuts may paralyze most scientific research carried out in Brazil #fantastico

A report on the Fantastic television program, one of the most popular in Brazil, showed the drama of Brazilian researchers who lost their scholarships paid by CNPq.

CNPq scholarships allow the best students, children of poor families, who participate, for example, in the mathematics Olympics, to receive a monthly budget.

The theme generated the hashtag #fantastico on Twitter in Brazil. Thousands of Brazilians complain about the government's stance in cutting these exchanges. They also criticize the fact that Bolsonaro and his sons spend public money on unimportant things, such as painting the presidential plane.

In total, there are 84,000 scholarships that can be unpaid at the end of the year.

According to Datafolha, President Jair Bolsonaro's disapproval rose from 33% to 38%. Certainly, the high unemployment coupled with measures such as CNPq cut-offs, the government's evident inability to command national policy, the environmental policy that seeks, among other things, to liberate mining on indigenous lands, and the absurd statements of the President of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro, greatly worsen the assessment of the current government. According to the survey, 44% of Brazilians do not trust the president's word.

The Brazilian economy and its slow recovery; according to consultancy McKinsey, Brazil grows well below global average

The Brazilian GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019, 0.4% over the first three months of the same year, confirms the existence of a low growth cycle in Brazil since the end of the recession in 2016.

The advance in the Brazilian GDP is undeniably too small for the size of the problem. There are more than 12 million unemployed and the growth below 1% forecast for this year does not solve this problem at all. With this level of unemployment, consumption in the country does not grow, as jobless people stop consuming to spend on what is completely essential.

There is an undeniable lack of dynamism in the Brazilian economy. To overcome this, Brazil needs public policies focused on infrastructure urgently, but this scenario is not on the Brazilian horizon. On the contrary, there are few measures aimed at infrastructure investments, especially from the federal government.

To meet the global average, Brazil needs to invest 4.7 percent of GDP in infrastructure, according to a study by consultancy McKinsey, prepared at the request of the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) of the Bank. Worldwide. Between 2000 and 2016, however, Brazil applied on average only 2.1% of GDP on infrastructure.

According to economist Laura Carvalho, "the return of direct public investment in infrastructure to the pre-crisis level would have high stimulus power, even if it were entirely covered by the elimination of tax cuts, subsidies and other lower multiplier expenses on job creation and income and/or higher income taxes for the rich." However, this is not on the Brazilian political horizon either. Therefore, everything indicates that Brazil will continue to show small GDP growth. As a result, labor supply will remain very weak in Brazil.

One of the sectors that showed improvements was the construction industry in the region of the city of São Paulo, but this is still little to reactivate Brazil's economy.

The Brazilian GDP growth forecast for 2019 to be 0.8%, according to bank UBS; numbers released by IBGE today showed that the Brazilian economy underperformed and grown 0.4% in Q2 2019

Bank UBS presented a new growth forecast for Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2019 and 2020. According to UBS, in 2019, the estimate for the increase of the Brazilian GDP fell from 1% to 0.8%. Already referring to the years 2020, the institution believes that the index will grow only 1.5%, compared to 2.2% previously predicted. Therefore, in a scenario of economic stagnation, UBS forecasts even lower performance than expected.

According to economist Laura Carvalho, the current recovery of the Brazilian economy is among the slowest in recent Brazilian history. According to Laura de Carvalho's estimates, "GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in force in the first quarter of 2014 would not be reached until December 2021 - 20 quarters after the end of the recession."

According to data released today by the IBGE, the Brazilian economy underperformed and grew only 0.4% in the second quarter of 2019. This result was driven by a slight recovery of the Brazilian industry. However, compared to the same period last year, the GDP was up 1%.

Also according to IBGE data, the Brazilian extractive industry had a record drop: -9.4%. This was the sharpest drop in the historical series of this sector. Vale's crimes in Brumadinho (where 248 people died and 22 others are missing) and the paralyzing of other dams for inspection in an attempt to prevent further tragedies. This, added to the rains in Pará impacted the iron ore industry in Brazil in the period.

Argentina declares a default with IMF and banks in an attempt to ease major turbulence in the country's foreign exchange market

Argentine President Mauricio Macri, announced today that he has asked the IMF to revise the maturities of its 56 billion dollar debt beginning in 2021. The measure, which would aim to alleviate the current turmoil in the country. foreign exchange market proves the failure of the neoliberal policy adopted in Argentina and defended by the current Brazilian government of Jair Bolsonaro.

This greatly worsens the situation of Macri, who has already lost primary elections to center-left candidate Alberto Fernández – whose deputy is Cristina Kirchner by a difference of 15 percentage points.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, in turn, is close to Macri. Bolsonaro has even attacked Fernández, confirming even the possibility of Brazil leaving Mercosur Fernández winning. Macri's possible defeat is largely due to the country's current economic situation. Today, Argentina has inflation of 55% and the basic interest rate is 70% per year.

According to Reuters, the rating agency Standard & Poor’s said on Thursday (29.08.2019) "that Argentina’s decision to "unilaterally' extend maturities on its short-term debt constituted a 'default'". 

Companies (Timberland, Vans, Kipling) and some European Governments Decide to Take Action Against Brazil Due to Jair Bolsonaro's Environmental Policy and Amazon rainforest Burning

According to information from the Brazilian Tannery Industries Center (CICB), more than 18 international brands, including Timberland, Vans, and Kipling, announced that they will suspend the purchase of Brazilian leather due to news related to burning in the Amazon region. 

The decision undermines Brazilian agribusiness. Yesterday, the CICB sent all this information to the Brazilian Environment Minister Ricardo Salles, with the intention of making the current government reviewing its environmental policy and the intention to make the inspection more flexible in the region, as the minister himself and the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro have promised.

The Swedish government has also announced that it will review investments of its pension funds in Brazil in light of the Amazon. In total, Swedish pension applications total R$ 650 billion worldwide. To make matters worse, Swedish Finance Minister Per Bolund made public criticism of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and the current Brazilian environmental policy.

The Norwegian government, for its part, has decided to call up Norwegian companies operating in Brazil and ask them to check whether they cause damage to the Amazon. The Norwegian government wants assurances that companies will not do business with companies that are harmful to the biome.

Today, after a tough meeting with governors of the region occurred yesterday in Brasília, where the president heard criticism from politicians like Flávio Dino, governor of Maranhão and opposition to the current federal government, the president Jair Bolsonaro was found himself almost embarrassed to step back and open the doors for bilateral aid donations to the Amazon.

The denial of the current Jair Bolsonaro government over European Union aid has been sharply criticized by the region's governors. Since Brazil is facing an economic crisis and has little money for many public services, denying receiving the money offered by the governments of Germany, Norway, and France sound almost unbelievable.

Brazilian financial market contaminated by the Bolsonaro effect

The Ibovespa index fell below 100,000 points in the last days and the dollar surpassed R $ 4,00. The current picture of volatility amid trade uncertainties and Bolsonaro's worsening in president and government approval polls.

Today, the dollar had risen to R$ 4.18 for the first time since September 2018. Currency buys gained momentum after Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto said, according to Reuters, that the recent devaluation exchange rate is within the normal pattern.

Paradoxically, the financial market was one of the biggest supporters of Jair Bolsonaro's candidacy. Betting on a possible liberal agenda of the then-candidate. In coming to power, Bolsonaro put Paulo Guedes, a liberal in charge of the economy, but his government was largely unable to organize and lead the political debate around a reformist agenda. In fact, the statements of Bolsonaro and Guedes did more harm than good in assisting the approval work of the Social Security Reform. The main architect of this reform was the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, who at various times collided with Bolsonaro and even Paulo Guedes.

Now, many analysts believe that the Bolsonaro government can repeat what happened to another liberal government in South America. Mauricio Macri's Argentina was the scene of a liberal who was unable to put into practice the reformist agenda at the right speed. Now, Macri, who has taken many populist measures in recent months, must lose the election to candidate to more developmental agenda.

To make matters worse, the publication of complaints against Mayor Rodrigo Maia helped increase the tension in the markets.

Brazilian president's negative rating grows from 19% in February to 39.5% today; Vanessa Barbara writes text in The New York Times saying that Jair Bolsonaro is the "most insignificant of men"

A survey made by the MDA institute and the CNT (National Transport Confederation) points out that the negative assessment by the Brazilian government has jumped from 19% in February to 39.5% now.

The survey also indicated that approval of Jair Bolsonaro's personal performance went from 28.2% in February to 53.7% now. The survey also indicates 29.1% believe the government is regular and 29.4% believe the government is great.

Meanwhile, The New York Times published an article signed by Brazilian journalist Vanessa Barbara, about the Amazon fires. The text, which featured prominently on the cover of the newspaper, says "a global treasure lies at the mercy of the smallest, dullest, pettiest of men", in reference to President Jair Bolsonaro.