IBGE indicates that Brazil should have a record harvest of 239.8 million tons in 2019

According to the IBGE Systematic Survey on Agricultural Production, the August estimate for the 2019 crop points to a new record in grain production in Brazil. If the forecast of 239.8 million tons of grain is confirmed, it will exceed by 1.4 million tons the record obtained for the 2017 harvest. In 2018, production was 226.5 million tons.

The expectation of a larger harvest of second-crop corn increased the forecast for the national grain crop in 2019.

Brazil is expected to produce 7.2 million tonnes of winter cereals this year, with 80.8% of this total wheat (5.8 million tonnes). Oats account for 13.7% (985.6 thousand tons), and barley 5.5% (391.6 thousand tons).

According to Inpe, Brazil today has over 100,000 outbreaks of fire

Brazil has exceeded 100,000 outbreaks of fire, according to Inpe. In the municipality of Chapada dos Guimarães, army firefighters, brigade members, and military combat three major fires. One of them, inside the National Park.

A survey by the Acre Environment Secretariat in partnership with the Federal University of Acre (Ufac) Gamma Laboratory reports that the state in northern Brazil, in the Amazon region, had more than 27,000 hectares of degraded areas this year with burned.

Between January and August 2019 alone, more than 46,000 outbreaks of fires were recorded in the Amazon, an increase of over 100% over the same period in 2018.

The wave of out-of-control fires is not restricted to Brazil. In Paraguay, the fires produced destruction and a smokescreen that covered the Brazilian city of Ponta Pora. Today there are at least 2,580 fire outbreaks in various regions of Paraguay, 150 km from the Brazilian border.

Retailers lose value at Bovespa (B3) after Amazon Prime launches in Brazil; Shares of B2W (BTOW3), Lojas Americanas (LAME4), and Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) fall

There is a scenario of short-term pressure on the Brazilian Stock Exchange related to Brazilian retail companies. With the start of Amazon Prime direct sales in the country, stocks of Brazilian retailers were the worst performers of the benchmark index of the Brazilian stock market, the Ibovespa.

B2W, Lojas Americanas, and Magazine Luiza were among the biggest losses yesterday. Today this scenario can be repeated. Therefore, the launch of Amazon Prime will bring volatility to the stocks of e-commerce companies in Brazil in the short term.

Amazon Prime came to the Brazilian retail market offering free shipping, movies, and music for $ 89 a year or $ 9.90 a month. Which will give you access to Prime Video, Prime Music and Twitch Prime.

What most stood out in the media was the announcement of free delivery of Amazon Prime to the capitals of the Southeast and South of Brazil, as well as Brasilia and Goiania. Amazon will also offer express shipping at no additional charge from 2 business days, with no minimum purchase value, for products sold under the Prime seal.

Paulo Guedes, Brazil economy minister, says he plans to create new CPMF, a tax capable to collect up to 150 billion

In an interview with Valor Econômico newspaper, Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes announced that the country will have a new tax along the lines of the former CMPF (Provisional Contribution on Financial Movement).

The announcement is a kind of electoral fraud because Jair Bolsonaro, during the presidential campaign, promised not to recreate the tax, including calling it "disgrace" and "damn".

In the interview, Guedes said he would propose rates of 0.2% to 1% on each transaction, but it would be up to Congress to set the size of the tax. 

Another criticism about the new tax is its fate. According to Guedes, the new CPMF will have a rate of 0.2% to 1% and may raise R$ 150 billion. The old CPMF was created to increase the health budget but was not used for this purpose. Now the new tax does not even have this varnish.

The evident contradiction of government that claims to be neoliberal, but creates taxes to increase revenue. The tax, if created, will have a ripple effect and will produce distortions in the productive structure.

Several liberal-biased movements that were supporting the government are already criticizing the move. Liberal think tank Ilisp has already stated in his Twitter account that he will campaign against the new tax.

Bradesco (BBDC4) estimates that the basic interest rate of the Brazilian economy, the Selic, could close 2019 at 4.75%

Banco Bradesco revised its forecast for Brazil's basic interest rate, Selic. Now the bank's expectation is that Selic will close 2019 at 4.75% and remain at this level until the end of 2020. The previous forecast was that interest would be at 5%.

For Bradesco, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Brazilian Central Bank should promote two further cuts of 0.50 percentage points in the September and October meetings. Afterward, Bradesco believes that the Copom will reduce 0.25 percentage points in the December meeting. That would lead to 4.75% the rate that currently stands at 6%.

This bet by Bradesco increases the pressure on the Copom and the Brazilian Central Bank, as it adds to the criticism that many economists are making against the current government's economic policy.

For economist Laura Carvalho, for example, the Copom "amid high unemployment, economic stagnation, rising wage inequalities, and below-target inflation expectations, waited" until the end of July 2019 to reduce unemployment. Selic rate by 0.5 percentage point to 6% per annum.

So far, the fall of Selic and the approval of the Social Security Reform have not been enough to leverage the Brazilian GDP. Jair Bolsonaro's government has so far presented no plans to reactivate the Brazilian economy. This, coupled with the absurd statements of both the president and ministers of his government, make the future scenario of the Brazilian economy even more uncertain.

According to Maersk, Brazil's foreign trade growth expectations slow to 2020

According to the PortoseNavios website, Maersk report indicates that hopes for resumption of Brazilian foreign trade in 2020 have fallen. 

According to PortoseNavios, "For the largest shipper in the world, there is a possibility of recovery only for 2021 due to the slower global scenario, due to the trade war between the largest powers in the world - China and the United States -, and Brexit, with the departure of the Great Britain of the European Union. In the regional context, the Argentine crisis compresses Brazilian exports, while in the local context the reason is the poor logistics infrastructure of the country".

In an interview with the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, Maersk's Head of Product Management of the East Coast in South America, Matias Concha, stated that "unfortunately Brazil is failing to materialize external opportunities. This is the case of the real, whose devaluation is favorable for exports."

For him, the Brazilian government needs to invest in "in transportation, logistics, and infrastructure. If they do not occur, they will prevent Brazil from taking advantage of its potential."

Asked by NSC Total, if any embargoes by Brazilian positions, especially in the environmental area, could impact the market, Concha stated that "any barrier, any difficulty for trade is a concern. Whether an embargo, tax or tariff. We experienced this last year, we had a blockade of Brazilian protein exports to Russia, and that had an impact. What happens is that after 15 months of importing Brazilian meat, they were able to find different providers and today they can live without the need for Brazilian meat."

Cost of living in Brazil: inflation was 0,11% in August, according to IBGE

According to data from the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), released today by the IBGE, August inflation in Brazil slowed to 0.11%, after registering high of 0.19% in July.

The IBGE indicated a deflation in the Food & Beverage (-0.35%) and Transport (-0.39%) groups. Housing, with a high of 1.19%, was the group that positively pressured inflation. Thus, official inflation in Brazil was 0.11% in August and 3.43% in the last 12 months.

According to data from the National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea), vehicle production in Brazil fell 7.3% in August. Industry exports plunged 34.6% in August 2019 compared to August 2018.  This result was greatly impacted by the crisis in Argentina, the largest buyer of cars produced in Brazil.

This scenario, coupled with the very weak performance of the Brazilian economy, reinforces the idea that 2019 may have a negative GDP in Brazil.

Brazilian agricultural production value hits record: R$ 343.5 billion

According to the Municipal Agricultural Survey (PAM) 2018, released today by IBGE, the value of Brazilian agricultural production hit a record and reached R $ 343.5 billion in 2018, an increase of 8.3% compared to 2017.

Growth was driven by higher commodity prices such as soybeans (13.6%), cotton (52.3%) and coffee (22%), in a year when the grain crop fell 4.7% and the harvested area 0.5%. Despite the favorable results, the 2017 grain surplus was not exceeded in 2018, mainly due to the 16% decrease in Brazil's corn production.

According to the IBGE, "trade disputes between the United States and China, crop failures in Argentina and Chinese demand for herbaceous cotton have boosted the prices of major Brazilian commodities".

Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso, and Paraná were the states with the highest value of agricultural production in 2018 in Brazil.

Brazilian Environment Minister Ricardo Salles gives an interview to a white Canadian supremacist

Canadian YouTuber Stefan Molyneux published on his social networks, on the last day 2.09.2019, an interview with the Brazilian Minister of Environment, Ricardo Salles. The video lasts 24 minutes. In them, both speak of the recent environmental crisis involving the burning of the Amazon rainforest. 

Molyneux, however, is known for being a supporter of white supremacist ideas as well as free liberalism of state regulation. 

The interview is very revealing, as it indicates that Salles, who has decided to tackle countries like Germany and Norway, which were helping to protect the Amazon through the money they sent to the Amazon Fund, is willing to use part of his time to give an interview for an obscure social media figure rather than negotiating with the nations mentioned.

The interview points to the amateurism of the current administration, which, amid an unprecedented environmental crisis, makes accusations against possible international partners and approaches controversial figures, to say the least, and of no political importance like Stefan Molyneux.

Prior to being appointed to the post of the environment minister, Salles, like Molyneux, was a minor and controversial figure in Brazilian politics. Prior to being minister, Ricardo Salles was a federal deputy candidate for the ultra-liberal Partido Novo. During the campaign, Salles used social networks to spread messages that incited violence.

Salles's candidacy number was 30-06 in allusion to a type of ammunition, which he in his messages promised to use to combat the "boar plague" and "against the left and the MST", Landless Workers' Movement.

The Partido Novo itself disapproved of Salles's publications during the campaign. In recent weeks, the Partido Novo has tried to explain that Salles, who remains a member of the Partido Novo, did not represent the party in the federal government. Paradoxically, the Partido Novo supports the government in House votes, has a cabinet minister, but publicly says it has no connection with Jair Bolsonaro.

These are not the only problems represented by Salles, in December 2018, he was convicted of administrative misconduct and had his political rights suspended for three years. The sentence, handed down by Judge Fausto José Martins Seabra, Salles allegedly committed, when he was secretary of the environment of the government of São Paulo, various irregularities and disarray that could harm the environment.

Brazilian industrial production falls for the third consecutive month, according to IBGE; Dollar keeps rising in Brazil

The Brazilian industry recorded production losses in 11 of the 26 activities surveyed from June to July, according to the Monthly Industrial Survey data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In the global average, production fell 0.3%, the third month followed by a negative result, accumulating a loss of 1.2% in the period. Compared to July 2018, Brazilian industrial production fell 2.50%.

The drop in Brazilian industrial production indicates that the country entered the third quarter of 2019 in a bad scenario, as the accumulated industrial production of 2019 is negative: -1.7%. The scenario is therefore very difficult for the Brazilian economy. Brazilian economic activity is expected to remain very weak in 2019.

Meanwhile, yesterday the US currency rose 0.98% in Brazil and reached its highest rate since the historic record almost 1 year ago: R$ 4.1822. In Brazil, in August, the dollar rose 8.46%. Brazil lost only to Argentina, where the US currency rose 35.80% in the same period.

CNPq scholarship cuts may paralyze most scientific research carried out in Brazil #fantastico

A report on the Fantastic television program, one of the most popular in Brazil, showed the drama of Brazilian researchers who lost their scholarships paid by CNPq.

CNPq scholarships allow the best students, children of poor families, who participate, for example, in the mathematics Olympics, to receive a monthly budget.

The theme generated the hashtag #fantastico on Twitter in Brazil. Thousands of Brazilians complain about the government's stance in cutting these exchanges. They also criticize the fact that Bolsonaro and his sons spend public money on unimportant things, such as painting the presidential plane.

In total, there are 84,000 scholarships that can be unpaid at the end of the year.

According to Datafolha, President Jair Bolsonaro's disapproval rose from 33% to 38%. Certainly, the high unemployment coupled with measures such as CNPq cut-offs, the government's evident inability to command national policy, the environmental policy that seeks, among other things, to liberate mining on indigenous lands, and the absurd statements of the President of the Republic, Jair Bolsonaro, greatly worsen the assessment of the current government. According to the survey, 44% of Brazilians do not trust the president's word.