Cost of living in Brazil: Brazilian financial market declined, for the eleventh consecutive time, now the country's inflation forecast in 2019 fell from 3.28% to 3.26%

Financial market economists reduce the inflation estimate for this year and also a forecast for the economy's basic interest rates at the end of 2019 – from 4.75% to 4.5% per year. Some analysts believe basic interest rates in Brazil are likely to fall even lower in early 2020.

As the projections appear in the market bulletin known as the report Focus (Relatório Focus), released today (21.10.2019) by the Brazilian Central Bank (BC). The report is the result of a survey conducted last week with more than 100 financial institutions.

According to one institution, financial market analysts have lowered the inflation estimate for this year from 3.28% to 3.26%. It was the first consecutive drop in this indicator.

Members of the Federal Prosecution Service of Brazil (MPF) file a civil action against President Jair Bolsonaro's government to force him to act to combat the oil spill that is already the biggest environmental disaster in the country's coastal history

Prosecutors in nine northeastern states accuse the Brazilian federal government of omission. They decided to go to court to demand that the federal government trigger a 24-hour contingency plan, which was created in 2013 and was terminated on April 2014 by the Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) government. Following the adoption of the measure imposed by the government of Jair Bolsonaro, dozens of boards of the federal administration and two committees that were part of the National Contingency Plan for Oil Pollution Incidents (PNC), were extinguished.

So far, oil containment that is polluting several beaches in northeastern Brazil is being done by Petrobras and state governments. The governor of Bahia, Rui Costa, publicly discussed with the Minister of the Environment, Ricardo Salles, through Twitter.

Costa said Salles should "stop doing politics and work" and asked the minister if she already knew who was responsible for the "very serious environmental accident" and what the minister had done about the leak.

The lack of action by the federal government is very serious indeed. The problem of oil slicks on the Brazilian coast began in August, but only in recent days has the federal government started to act a little more intensely. However, Jair Bolsonaro, who has not visited any of the affected areas, will travel to Asia in the midst of the biggest environmental crisis of the history of the Brazilian beaches.

Since August 30, 187 regions of the Brazilian Northeast coast have been reached. 12 conservation units were polluted. Beautiful beaches that attract thousands of tourists every year were hit, as is the case of São José da Coroa Grande (PE) beach.

The images are terrifying. In many beaches, the residents themselves are gathering to try to remove the oil and save the environment, but the lack of a plan of combat and action by the federal government in these regions is evident.

Cost of living in Brazil: according to IBGE the poorest half of the Brazilian population lives on R$ 413 a month, which is a little over a 100 dollars

Data published today by the IBGE indicate that 104 million Brazilians, the poorest 50% of the population, "live" with $ 413 per month, something around 100 dollars.

If the cut selects the poorest 30% (60.4 million people), the average monthly income drops to R$ 269, just over 60 dollars per month. Meanwhile, 1% of richer Brazilians have a monthly per capita income of R$ 16,297, or something around four thousand dollars.

IBGE also pointed out that income inequality has reached a record level in Brazil. Over the past few years, the poor have gotten poorer as their incomes fell 3.8% between 2017 and 2018, while the rich got richer as their incomes grew 8.2% over the same period.

Thus, income inequality in the country reached a record level in 2018, within the historical series of the National Continuous Household Sample Survey (Pnad Contínua), initiated in 2012 by IBGE.

Banco Inter (BIDI4) and Uber negotiate partnership in Brazil, according to Reuters

According to Folha de S.Paulo newspaper and Reuters news agency, "Banco Inter and Uber are in negotiations to establish a partnership in the area of financial services." This move "demonstrates the work of the Japanese group SoftBank to integrate their business in Latin America" according to Reuters.

According to Folha de S.Paulo, "SoftBank, which is a shareholder of Uber, has acquired a stake of approximately 15% in Banco Inter this year." These negotiations aim to boost Banco Inter's business in Brazil.

In Brazil, the partnership can target both Uber's more than 600,000 drivers and Banco Inter's more than 3 million customers.

IBR-Br: performance of the Brazilian economy in August 2019 is below expectations

The Brazilian Central Bank Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), released today, was below expectations. According to this index, a kind of signal of how is going to be the performance of Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the country's economic activity is practically stagnant in 2019.

The IBC-Br rose 0.07% in August compared to the previous month, according to seasonally adjusted data by BC.

At this rate, the Brazilian economy grows at a rate of 0.8% per year. Brazilian financial market analysts' expectations were for growth of 0.2%, so performance was well below expectations.

Camil Alimentos (CAML3) company has a 41% drop in its performance with net income of R$ 40.1 million in the second quarter of 2019

Camil Alimentos recorded a net income of R$ 40.1 million in the second quarter of 2019, considered by the company between June and August, performance 41% lower than the reported in the same period last year. Net revenue, in turn, rose 6.8% and totaled R $ 1.2 billion.

Camil is one of the largest food companies in South America. The company's EBITDA reached R$ 88.7 million (-34.1%), with a margin of 7.3% (-4.5pp).

Service sector in Brazil records the fifth fall in 2019, according to IBGE

The Monthly Survey of Services, released today by IBGE, indicated that the volume of services fell by 0.2% in August 2019, compared to July, the sector's fifth negative result in 2019. In August 2018, fall was 1.4%. Year-to-date, despite the decline, the sector advanced 0.5%.

In 12 months, there was a loss of pace of recovery, with accumulated growth going from 0.9% in July to 0.6% in August. When considering the entire historical series, which began in 2011, the volume of services in the country is still 12.1% below its best moment, reached in November 2014.

According to IBGE, retail sales, mainly from supermarkets and hypermarkets, prevented retail sales from being negative in August. The volume of trade in this month was 0.1% compared to July, indicating stability. August 2019 was also the third consecutive month that the sector obtained a positive rate, accumulating a high of 1.2% in the year.

Cost of living in Brazil: the country has deflation of 0.04% in September 2019

According to data from the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), released today by the IBGE, Brazil had, in September, a deflation of 0.04%. This is the lowest result for this month since 1998.

The main factors for this number were the fall in the cost of food away from home, which fell 0.53%, and the fall in the cost of food at home, which fell 0.70%. There was also a fall in-home appliance prices, which was 2.26%, and on TV, sound and computer prices, which was 0.90%.

The National Index of Construction (Sinapi), also released today by the IBGE, grew 0.37% in September. The main reason for the increase was the cost of labor.

The Regional Monthly Industrial Survey, also released today by the IBGE, indicates that after three months of negative rates, the São Paulo industry, the largest in Brazil, grew 2.6% in August, influenced by the increase in sugar production.

The return of censorship to Brazil

In recent months, after the election of a far-right candidate for president, Brazil is witnessing the return of censorship at various levels. From mayors to the president himself, Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil has become the scene of arbitrariness against cultural productions that do not fit the ultra-conservative perspective of certain political actors in the country.

According to the website El País Brasil, the president himself justifies his mission of “preserving Christian values, treating our youth with respect, recognizing the family as a unit that must be healthy for the good of all”. In the name of this, several far-right civil servants and politicians judge themselves on the right to censor books, comics, plays, art exhibitions, and film productions.

In January 2019, upon assuming the presidency of Brazil, Bolsonaro extinguished the Ministry of Culture. Since then, the ministry has become secretariat status within the new Ministry of Citizenship, under the command of Minister Osmar Terra, who, among other things, has advocated the closure of the National Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa) if the agency approves rules on cannabis plantation in Brazil for the production of medicines and prohibited the publication of the 3rd National Survey on Drug Use by the Brazilian Population by the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), a health research institution with more than 100 years of history.

President Jair Bolsonaro has already censored an advertisement by state bank Banco do Brasil that displayed racial and sexual diversity. The video censored by the Brazilian president featured black actors and actresses and different contemporary styles of life just to talk to the young audience, targeted by the bank's campaign.

Now another state-owned bank, Caixa Economica Federal, according to Folha de S. Paulo, has created a system of censorship prior to projects of its cultural centers. This week, according to the UOL website, Caixa Cultural Recife canceled the presentations of the children's show Abrazo, which was scheduled for this and next weekend. The play, organized by the Shakespeare Christmas group Clowns of Natal (RN), shows a country that prohibits displays of affection and subtly exposes themes such as dictatorship, censorship, and repression.

In the same vein, other lesser politicians, such as Rio de Janeiro Mayor Marcelo Crivella, also tried to censor other artistic manifestations. At the last Rio Book Biennial, the mayor ordered to censor and collect copies of the comic book "Avengers - The Children's Crusade", because the comic had a picture of two young men kissing. The measure was eventually prohibited by the court. Crivella, who is also a bishop of a  Christian right church, has very low approval as mayor and was seeking to increase his approval among the city's most conservative population with this comic book censorship.

At the same time, President Jair Bolsonaro, in an offensive against the Brazilian National Film Agency (Ancine), cut 43% of the audiovisual fund. Then, the Ministry of Citizenship issued an ordinance that prevented the completion of an announcement by the National Cinema Agency (Ancine) for LGBT-themed audiovisual productions. The Brazilian Justice, through the Federal Prosecutor's Office (MPF), would eventually suspend the ordinance that was considered harmful to public coffers.

Paradoxically, the Bolsonaro government is trying to put into practice in Brazil an unacceptable ideological rigging of the state, a fact that he widely criticized as a presidential candidate. Now, in addition to the deep economic crisis and the enormous environmental problems affecting the nation, Brazil has also become the target of the backward and often deranged rightism advocated by the president and other members of his government as the minister of family, women and human rights, Damares Alves, and the Brazilian Chancellor, Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo.

The Household Budget Survey (POF) 2017-2018, released today by IBGE, points out that Brazilians are investing less and paying more debt

The Household Budget Survey (POF) 2017-2018, released today by IBGE, points out that Brazilians are investing less and paying more debt. According to the research, households have less budget space to buy assets such as real estate, land, and capitalization bonds, while they need to devote more of their income to reducing their debt and paying taxes.

The survey generally shows a significant shift in household spending priorities since the 1970s. At that time, Brazilians households stamped 16.5% of their spending on "asset growth." This group, it should be noted, does not include vehicle purchase expenses, which are accounted for under the heading “consumption expenses”.

According to the survey, average Brazilian household expenses amount to R$ 4,649.03 per month, of which only 4.1% was devoted to “asset increases” such as the acquisition of real estate, land, and securities. This is a smaller proportion than in previous versions of the survey, such as 2002-2003 (4.8%) and 2008-2009 (5.8%). This means, in practice, that Brazilians are saving less.

After heavy losses yesterday, Ibovespa operates slightly higher today; dollar remains above R$ 4.00 in Brazil

After falling almost 3% yesterday (02.10.2019), Ibovespa opened today's session with slightly positive performance, which helps to recover some of the recent losses.

Today (02.10.2019), the dollar continues to fall abroad, which, in turn, produces adjustments in the foreign exchange market in Brazil. This morning, in Brazil, the commercial dollar dropped by 0.25% to R $ 4.1235 in the purchase and to R $ 4.1442 in the sale. The futures dollar for November, in turn, fell 0.23% to R $ 4,127 this morning.

Yesterday, the dollar fell 0.67% to R$ 4,1344 on sale, the highest daily low for a close since September 11 (-0.76%) and the lowest since September 18 (R$ 4.1028).