The Institute for Studies in Industrial Development (Iedi) of Brazil has published an expectation that the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should grow less than 1% in 2019. The industry should perform even worse, with retraction around 2% in 2019.
According to the Iedi Executive Director, Julio Gomes de Almeida, "there is no factor to change" this conjuncture in the short term. For him, the high level of unemployment in the country prevents a stronger growth of economic activity.
Almeida says that even if the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) reduces the Selic rate, which is currently at 6.5% per year, these measures would only show some result in 2020. This, coupled with the low competitiveness of Brazilian industry, our low levels of productivity and the crisis that currently affects Argentina, Brazil's main trading partner in the region, makes the scenario even more worrying.
In the comparison of the first quarter of 2019 with the same period in 2018, the four segments of manufacturing Brazilian industry fell: capital goods industry (-4.3%), durables industry (-3.5%), intermediate processing industry (-2%), and semi-durable industry (-1.4%). The decline of the general industry in Brazil, in turn, was 2.3%.
To make matters worse, the construction sector cut 12,648 jobs in March in Brazil.
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