The errors in the Brazilian GDP growth forecasts

In the first five months of 2019, market economists have changed their projections for Brazilian GDP growth by 11 times. Their mistake was brutal: they predicted GDP growth by 3% in January 2019, now they have changed to something around 1.45%. These same analysts and economists who do not meet their four months forecast point out that the approval of the Pension Reform will solve all of Brazil's economic problems. Many times, it seems that these analysts use more of the economic terror then rational arguments based on numbers and facts.

Now many of these economists are trying to explain their misguided predictions of recovery. Many of them seem bewildered, with inaccurate explanations of the ever worse results of GDP. This indicates that economists, financial market analysts, and Brazilian businessmen were very naive in their political analysis, and unable to rationally analyze the risk that Bolsonaro's victory could represent for the Brazil economy.

According to the greatest Brazilian historian, Sérgio Buarque de Holanda (1902-1982), Brazil has no conservatives, but "backward people." In his speech, Holland referred to some figures of the Empire who defended slavery in Brazil. Now, the picture repeats itself. Many of these economists, analysts, and business people have championed Bolsonaro's candidacy even though publications such as The Economist and The Financial Times have pointed to the risks that Jair Bolsonaro's victory might represent.

For the political scientist and professor at the Department of Political Science at Unicamp and a researcher at Cebrap, Andréa Freitas, in denying any political coalitions, Bolsonaro set up his own trap. He does not want to negotiate with other political groups.

Added to this there is an undeniable inability of the current government to coordinate the National Congress politically. Besides Bolsonaro does not indicate that he will make an effort to build policies along with other parties, the current president argues that any type of political negotiation is necessarily corrupt. Not sharing power with the other political parties will prevent or make very difficult any measure proposed by the current government.

Another important factor is the party of President Jair Bolsonaro, the PSL. Basically made up of first-time deputies, with no experience in the political game, the PSL is a confusing political party. Many of his deputies are moving in opposite directions in an attempt to secure influential positions in the House of Representatives. Some of these positions are even contrary to government proposals.