Friday, 30 August 2019

The Brazilian economy and its slow recovery; according to consultancy McKinsey, Brazil grows well below global average

The Brazilian GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019, 0.4% over the first three months of the same year, confirms the existence of a low growth cycle in Brazil since the end of the recession in 2016.

The advance in the Brazilian GDP is undeniably too small for the size of the problem. There are more than 12 million unemployed and the growth below 1% forecast for this year does not solve this problem at all. With this level of unemployment, consumption in the country does not grow, as jobless people stop consuming to spend on what is completely essential.

There is an undeniable lack of dynamism in the Brazilian economy. To overcome this, Brazil needs public policies focused on infrastructure urgently, but this scenario is not on the Brazilian horizon. On the contrary, there are few measures aimed at infrastructure investments, especially from the federal government.

To meet the global average, Brazil needs to invest 4.7 percent of GDP in infrastructure, according to a study by consultancy McKinsey, prepared at the request of the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) of the Bank. Worldwide. Between 2000 and 2016, however, Brazil applied on average only 2.1% of GDP on infrastructure.

According to economist Laura Carvalho, "the return of direct public investment in infrastructure to the pre-crisis level would have high stimulus power, even if it were entirely covered by the elimination of tax cuts, subsidies and other lower multiplier expenses on job creation and income and/or higher income taxes for the rich." However, this is not on the Brazilian political horizon either. Therefore, everything indicates that Brazil will continue to show small GDP growth. As a result, labor supply will remain very weak in Brazil.

One of the sectors that showed improvements was the construction industry in the region of the city of São Paulo, but this is still little to reactivate Brazil's economy.

Thursday, 29 August 2019

The Brazilian GDP growth forecast for 2019 to be 0.8%, according to bank UBS; numbers released by IBGE today showed that the Brazilian economy underperformed and grown 0.4% in Q2 2019

Bank UBS presented a new growth forecast for Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2019 and 2020. According to UBS, in 2019, the estimate for the increase of the Brazilian GDP fell from 1% to 0.8%. Already referring to the years 2020, the institution believes that the index will grow only 1.5%, compared to 2.2% previously predicted. Therefore, in a scenario of economic stagnation, UBS forecasts even lower performance than expected.

According to economist Laura Carvalho, the current recovery of the Brazilian economy is among the slowest in recent Brazilian history. According to Laura de Carvalho's estimates, "GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in force in the first quarter of 2014 would not be reached until December 2021 - 20 quarters after the end of the recession."

According to data released today by the IBGE, the Brazilian economy underperformed and grew only 0.4% in the second quarter of 2019. This result was driven by a slight recovery of the Brazilian industry. However, compared to the same period last year, the GDP was up 1%.

Also according to IBGE data, the Brazilian extractive industry had a record drop: -9.4%. This was the sharpest drop in the historical series of this sector. Vale's crimes in Brumadinho (where 248 people died and 22 others are missing) and the paralyzing of other dams for inspection in an attempt to prevent further tragedies. This, added to the rains in Pará impacted the iron ore industry in Brazil in the period.

Wednesday, 28 August 2019

Argentina declares a default with IMF and banks in an attempt to ease major turbulence in the country's foreign exchange market

Argentine President Mauricio Macri, announced today that he has asked the IMF to revise the maturities of its 56 billion dollar debt beginning in 2021. The measure, which would aim to alleviate the current turmoil in the country. foreign exchange market proves the failure of the neoliberal policy adopted in Argentina and defended by the current Brazilian government of Jair Bolsonaro.

This greatly worsens the situation of Macri, who has already lost primary elections to center-left candidate Alberto Fernández – whose deputy is Cristina Kirchner by a difference of 15 percentage points.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, in turn, is close to Macri. Bolsonaro has even attacked Fernández, confirming even the possibility of Brazil leaving Mercosur Fernández winning. Macri's possible defeat is largely due to the country's current economic situation. Today, Argentina has inflation of 55% and the basic interest rate is 70% per year.

According to Reuters, the rating agency Standard & Poor’s said on Thursday (29.08.2019) "that Argentina’s decision to "unilaterally' extend maturities on its short-term debt constituted a 'default'". 

Companies (Timberland, Vans, Kipling) and some European Governments Decide to Take Action Against Brazil Due to Jair Bolsonaro's Environmental Policy and Amazon rainforest Burning

According to information from the Brazilian Tannery Industries Center (CICB), more than 18 international brands, including Timberland, Vans, and Kipling, announced that they will suspend the purchase of Brazilian leather due to news related to burning in the Amazon region. 

The decision undermines Brazilian agribusiness. Yesterday, the CICB sent all this information to the Brazilian Environment Minister Ricardo Salles, with the intention of making the current government reviewing its environmental policy and the intention to make the inspection more flexible in the region, as the minister himself and the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro have promised.

The Swedish government has also announced that it will review investments of its pension funds in Brazil in light of the Amazon. In total, Swedish pension applications total R$ 650 billion worldwide. To make matters worse, Swedish Finance Minister Per Bolund made public criticism of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and the current Brazilian environmental policy.

The Norwegian government, for its part, has decided to call up Norwegian companies operating in Brazil and ask them to check whether they cause damage to the Amazon. The Norwegian government wants assurances that companies will not do business with companies that are harmful to the biome.

Today, after a tough meeting with governors of the region occurred yesterday in Brasília, where the president heard criticism from politicians like Flávio Dino, governor of Maranhão and opposition to the current federal government, the president Jair Bolsonaro was found himself almost embarrassed to step back and open the doors for bilateral aid donations to the Amazon.

The denial of the current Jair Bolsonaro government over European Union aid has been sharply criticized by the region's governors. Since Brazil is facing an economic crisis and has little money for many public services, denying receiving the money offered by the governments of Germany, Norway, and France sound almost unbelievable.

Tuesday, 27 August 2019

Brazilian financial market contaminated by the Bolsonaro effect

The Ibovespa index fell below 100,000 points in the last days and the dollar surpassed R $ 4,00. The current picture of volatility amid trade uncertainties and Bolsonaro's worsening in president and government approval polls.

Today, the dollar had risen to R$ 4.18 for the first time since September 2018. Currency buys gained momentum after Central Bank President Roberto Campos Neto said, according to Reuters, that the recent devaluation exchange rate is within the normal pattern.

Paradoxically, the financial market was one of the biggest supporters of Jair Bolsonaro's candidacy. Betting on a possible liberal agenda of the then-candidate. In coming to power, Bolsonaro put Paulo Guedes, a liberal in charge of the economy, but his government was largely unable to organize and lead the political debate around a reformist agenda. In fact, the statements of Bolsonaro and Guedes did more harm than good in assisting the approval work of the Social Security Reform. The main architect of this reform was the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, who at various times collided with Bolsonaro and even Paulo Guedes.

Now, many analysts believe that the Bolsonaro government can repeat what happened to another liberal government in South America. Mauricio Macri's Argentina was the scene of a liberal who was unable to put into practice the reformist agenda at the right speed. Now, Macri, who has taken many populist measures in recent months, must lose the election to candidate to more developmental agenda.

To make matters worse, the publication of complaints against Mayor Rodrigo Maia helped increase the tension in the markets.

Monday, 26 August 2019

Brazilian president's negative rating grows from 19% in February to 39.5% today; Vanessa Barbara writes text in The New York Times saying that Jair Bolsonaro is the "most insignificant of men"

A survey made by the MDA institute and the CNT (National Transport Confederation) points out that the negative assessment by the Brazilian government has jumped from 19% in February to 39.5% now.

The survey also indicated that approval of Jair Bolsonaro's personal performance went from 28.2% in February to 53.7% now. The survey also indicates 29.1% believe the government is regular and 29.4% believe the government is great.

Meanwhile, The New York Times published an article signed by Brazilian journalist Vanessa Barbara, about the Amazon fires. The text, which featured prominently on the cover of the newspaper, says "a global treasure lies at the mercy of the smallest, dullest, pettiest of men", in reference to President Jair Bolsonaro.

Saturday, 24 August 2019

The #panelaço is back in Brazil; on Twitter, hashtags like #ForaBolsonaro (Bolsonaro out), #ActForTheAmazon and #MacronLies gain traction

Several Brazilian cities had protests during President Jair Bolsonaro's national television and radio address, made last night. Bolsonaro spoke about the government's plans to fight fires in the Amazon region.

People went to their windows and hit their pans (that is known in Brazil as "panelaço"), exactly as happened during the impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff. This demonstration points out that part of the middle class, which voted for Jair Bolsonaro, is very unhappy with the current government.

Brazil was also the scene of several street protests. Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Brasilia had thousands of people on the streets speaking out against the government's current environmental policy.

According to the agency Lupa, the largest fact-checking agency in Brazil, in its pronouncement on national television yesterday, Jair Bolsonaro, contradicted itself several times.

Bolsonaro said, at 21 of August, that "Spreading unfounded data and messages, inside or outside Brazil, does not help solve the problem and lends itself only to political use and misinformation." However, the Brazilian president himself accused, without any proof whatsoever, that Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) are behind the fires currently occurring in the Amazon. All environmental protection experts in the country believe that this statement by the president was, at the very least, irresponsible, as it criminalized all organizations that have been fighting for environmental preservation for decades.

According to Lupa, the next day after making such a statement, Bolsonaro admitted that he had no proof, but still insisted that the NGOs were responsible.

Bolsonaro also said his government has "zero tolerance for crime and in the environmental area will be no different," but in April 2019, Bolsonaro himself criticized Ibama inspectors, the body responsible for environmental protection in Brazil.

Bolsonaro even exonerated an Ibama server who fined him for irregular fishing in 2012. The fine imposed on Bolsonaro was canceled in December 2018.

According to Veja magazine, loggers are using Bolsonaro government speeches to intimidate Ibama inspectors in the Amazon region. According to Veja, an example of this change in behavior occurred in the city of Espigão d'Oeste, in Rondônia. Where hooded men stopped an Ibama tanker truck, beat the driver and then set fire to the vehicle, which carried 8,000 liters of fuel. The cargo would serve to fuel a helicopter that would fly over indigenous reserves in the region, where timber theft was suspected.

The issue is also producing a genre of narratives in Brazilian social media. While the worldwide movement against the environmental policy of the current Brazilian government grows, there are a number of Internet users who continue to defend Bolsonaro. These defenders accuse French President Emmanuel Macron of lying about the burning of the Amazon.

Paradoxically, these Bolsonaro supporters, who accused Brazil of becoming a socialist country during the PT rule, are now in open confrontation on social media with the western world that they praised so much. Only this week, the Finnish government decided to study the possibility of a boycott of Brazilian meat. France and Ireland oppose the Mercosur and European Union agreement. The problems of burning in the Amazon region will be discussed during the G7 meeting. Norway and Germany have cut funding to the Amazon Fund. British Prime Minister Conservative Boris Johnson said he was "deeply concerned" about the current situation in the Amazon. Contradictorily, the Brazilian extreme right that supports Bolsonaro and called itself pro-Western is now calling Western European leaders liars.


Friday, 23 August 2019

Protests in front of the Brazilian embassies in London, Berlin and Madrid call for the preservation of the Amazon; in Brazil, Bolsonaro calls emergency meeting with eight ministers to discuss the issue; Finland studies banning imports of beef from Brazil

European protesters call on Jair Bolsonaro's government to defend the forest. The wave of burning in the Amazon has become a global issue, especially after French President Emmanuel Macron said that burning in the Amazon is an “international crisis.” He called for the issue to be discussed this weekend at the G7 meeting, a group formed by Germany, Canada, the United States, France, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

There are protests against Jair Bolsonaro's government in European cities such as Paris, London, Berlin, and Madrid.

The international pressure has prompted Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to call a ministerial meeting to discuss ways to combat the burnings. The Brazilian president also signed yesterday an order that all his team of ministers adopts measures to combat the burning in the Amazon rainforest.

Yesterday, Eduardo Bolsonaro, the senator and son of the Brazilian president published a video that offended the President of France. Eduardo was nominated by his father for the position of Brazilian ambassador in Washington, USA. However, work by the Brazilian Senate indicated that this measure constituted nepotism. Now, Brazilian senators will vote to decide whether or not the president's son can take office.

Thursday, 22 August 2019

After saying that he didn't need the more than 250 million reais sent by Germany and Norway to protect the Amazon, the Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro says Brazil doesn't have resources to fight Amazon fires

After saying that he did not need the R$ 155 million from Germany and R$ 133 million from Norway to go to the Amazon Fund, President Jair Bolsonaro went public today, according to Reuters, to say that the Brazilian government doesn't have enough resources to fight a record number of wildfires burning in the Amazon rainforest.

Leaving the presidential residence today, Bolsonaro tells reporters that “the Amazon is bigger than Europe, how will you fight criminal fires in such an area?" According to Bolsonaro, Brazil "do not have the resources for that.”

A few days ago, Bolsonaro sent Chancellor Angela Merkel to use the millions the German government would send to the Amazon Fund to reforest Germany. He then criticized the Norwegian government, which also used to contribute to the Amazon Fund, and decided not to send funds anymore because of the current Brazilian government policy.

Today, several Brazilian newspapers have published information that Brazil is using money already sent by Germany and Norway to the Amazon Fund to fight fires. Contracts of R$ 14.717 million with the Amazon Fund, donated by the two European countries, was signed in June 2014 by Ibama.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro accuses the NGOs without proof of being responsible for the Amazon burning; Environment Minister Ricardo Salles booed at event in Bahia; #PrayForAmazonas: Burning becomes the most talked about Twitter topic in the world

Without presenting any evidence, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro accused NGOs of being responsible for the Amazon burning.

In his Twitter account, opposition deputy Marcelo Freixo said: "Bolsonaro is a cynic. But you can't just attribute cynicism to the statement that NGOs are burning the Amazon. The president's goal is to disqualify and criminalize organs and movements of environmental preservation. Burning paving the way for barbarism".

The statement was very much criticized. In Salvador to attend Latin American and Caribbean Climate Change Week, Greenpeace senior forest strategist Paulo Addario said that "criminalizing NGOs is criminalizing citizenship". WWF-Brazil Executive Director Mauricio Voivodic said that Bolsonaro's speech "it does not support itself at all."

Paradoxically, Environment Minister Ricardo Salles, in a post on his Twitter on the 20th, said that the fires that hit the Amazon are due to drought, wind and a strong heatwave in the region." Salles, by the way, was booed yesterday at the same Latin American and Caribbean Climate Change Week Climate Week in Salvador, Bahia.

In an interview with BBC Brazil, Professor of the Environmental Sciences Department of the Institute of Forests of the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Jerônimo Sansevero, said that Brazil will take at least 20 years to recover the destroyed part. But there are, he said, other "areas that have already lost their [recovery] capacity because they already have large-scale deforestation."

Yesterday, the hashtag #PrayForAmazonas has become one of the most talked-about topics on Twitter worldwide, even topping the list with hundreds of thousands of publications on the topic.

It is undeniable, however, that the arrival of Jair Bolsonaro to the presidency was accompanied by the also undeniable growth of burning in the Amazon. For many analysts, Bolsonaro's talk about the legalization of mining in the Amazon and indigenous lands, his undeniable proximity to the ruralists, his defense of landowner weaponry increase one right goes all in the region.

Wednesday, 21 August 2019

Know which state companies the current Brazilian government intends to privatize

According to the website Poder360, the current Brazilian government announces the list of companies that it intends to privatize to strengthen the federal cash and reduce the public deficit. The companies are:
  1. Emgea (Empresa Gestora de Ativos);
  2. ABGF (Agência Brasileira Gestora de Fundos Garantidores e Garantias);
  3. Serpro (Serviço Federal de Processamento de Dados);
  4. Dataprev (Empresa de Tecnologia e Informações da Previdência Social);
  5. Casa da Moeda;
  6. Ceagesp (Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo);
  7. Ceasaminas (Centrais de Abastecimento de Minas Gerais);
  8. CBTU (Companhia Brasileira de Trens Urbanos);
  9. Trensurb (Empresa de Trens Urbanos de Porto Alegre S.A.);
  10. Codesa (Companhia Docas do Espírito Santo);
  11. EBC (Empresa Brasil de Comunicação);
  12. Ceitec (Centro de Excelência em Tecnologia Eletrônica Avançada);
  13. Telebras
  14. Correios
  15. Eletrobras
  16. Lotex (Loteria Instantânea Exclusiva);
  17. Codesp (Companhia Docas do Estado de São Paulo).
The government of Jair Bolsonaro, therefore, intends to sell assets to cover a deficit such as social security. In fact, this means giving up capital to pay current expenses. Privatizing to clean up public accounts is a mistake.

However, privatization is currently a necessity as the Brazilian state has no money to make investments, which is being consumed by current spending.

If privatizations were aimed at a national development project debated and agreed between the government and the population, privatization would not be a problem, but in Brazil, the issue is that privatization is often done without a clear definition of the role of capital. foreign capital, the national capital and state capital in the economy of the country. Privatizations are always done in a crisis environment, where the country loses much of its negotiating capacity and ends up selling assets below or their real value or without the guarantees necessary for the agreement to work.

Eletropaulo, for example, a power distribution company serving the metropolitan region of São Paulo, has already been sold twice, first to the US group AES, and then to the Italian Enel. In the first privatization, the US company, to increase productivity, cut costs that eventually hurt the company. Of the 27,000 employees, only 4,000 remained. This has reduced the company's ability to do network maintenance work, thereby harming the population using the service.

Amazonia is burning! Number of fires in the Brazilian region grows scary 70%, in 2019

According to a research by the Programa Queimadas (Burning Program) of Inpe (Brazilian National Institute for Space Research), which measures the number of fire outbreaks in Brazil, the number of fires grew a staggering 70% in 2019 compared to 2018

The Amazon is by far the most affected biome as it accounts for over 50% of fires. The Brazilian Cerrado biome, in turn, is the scene of 30% of fire outbreaks. 

Most of the fires are produced by ranchers who want to turn the forest into an area for beef cattle production. The current drought in the region greatly facilitates the spread of fire.

Meanwhile, Environment Minister Ricardo Salles, during an event in the interior of São Paulo, said that much of the responsibility of the fires are of the state governments, which do not make the ideal control of fire outbreaks.

However, the Mato Grosso Fire Department, one of the states most affected by the fires, said it needed more support from the federal government. The Fire Department of Mato Grosso also said to see with concern the blockade of the Amazon Fund that, until this year, has invested R$ 12 million in structure to combat fire in the state.

The current government has refused to receive millions of reais sent from Germany and Norway to the Amazon Fund. President Jair Bolsonaro even said that Chancellor Angela Merkel should use the money to reforest Germany.

Tuesday, 20 August 2019

A possible global recession could produce the perfect storm for Brazil's already weak economy

Brazil's economy is suffering from very poor performance, with GDP growth for 2019 expected to be around 0.83%. However, due to the emergence of a possible risk of a global recession coupled with a change in Argentina's political landscape (moving from a neoliberal government, Mauricio Macri, to a more developmental government, Alberto Fernández).

With the global economy slowing down, Brazil must face even greater difficulties to get out of the scenario of extremely high unemployment (over 12 million unemployed people) and very little economic growth.

Even with the Pension Reform and the Tax Reform walking the Brazilian National Congress, which decided to act almost independently of the executive power, which through the often absurd speeches of President Jair Bolsonaro greatly harms any political coalition, the country will face economic difficulties to get out of the crisis scenario in which it finds itself.

In recent days, the outflow of foreign capital from the São Paulo Stock Exchange is higher since the one recorded in the global crisis of 2008. According to the website Terra, until the 15th of August 2019 (most recent data), the volume was negative in R$ 19.1 billion. In 2008, the red balance recorded in the year to the end of August was R$ 16.5 billion.

A direct consequence of the search for global security, this outflow of resources from the country will further weaken the Brazilian economy. To make matters worse, studies released this week indicate the collapse of investments in Brazil. Capital used to expand production in the country fell to the lowest level in 70 years in some sectors.

German media (Der Spiegel and Die Zeit) talk of imposing sanctions against the Brazilian government over Jair Bolsonaro's environmental policies

Der Spiegel magazine and weekly newspaper Die Zeit, two of Germany's leading publications, said it was "time for sanctions against Brazil" over the environmental policy of the current government-run by Jair Bolsonaro.

According to a report published today in the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, the largest in Brazil, Der Speigel magazine states in its pages that “Europe should not be idle while a hateful skeptic of science sacrifices vast areas of the forest for ranchers and soybean plantations ”.

At the beginning of August, the British magazine The Economist, in its cover story, drew attention to the fact that the Amazon was in danger of dying. The publication also called for global vigilance and stated that "the world must make clear to Bolsonaro that it will not tolerate its vandalism."

According to the newspaper, Folha do Progresso, in Novo Progresso, Pará, the producers, feeling "supported by the words of President" Jair Bolsonaro, coordinated a collective action to burn pasture and areas in the process of deforestation. The goal, according to one of the leaders heard under anonymity, is to show the president that they want to work.

Meanwhile, the São Paulo Public Prosecutor's Office opened an inquiry to investigate suspicion of illicit enrichment by Environment Minister Ricardo Salles between 2012 and 2017, during which time he alternated his legal activity with the positions of Private Secretary and Secretary of the Environment of the São Paulo Government.

Monday, 19 August 2019

Smoke from Amazonian and Pantanal fires darken Brazil's Midwest and Southeast cities; São 16h (It's 4pm) becomes a trend on Twitter in Brazil

The city of Sao Paulo has become an apocalyptic movie set today. The CGE (São Paulo City Hall's Climate Emergency Management Center) explanation for the darkness is related to the weather and the burning that take place in the country. The Civil Defense has warned of heavy rain in some parts of the metropolitan region of the city and winds that have brought particulate matter originating from burning in Paraguay, on the border with Mato Grosso do Sul, and other regions in Brazil, turn the sky black.

The unusual darkness of the sky in the middle of the day frightened residents of São Paulo and other large cities in southeastern Brazil.

The subject took over social networks in Brazil. On Twitter, the "São 16h" trend has produced thousands of comments and photo posts from the completely dark sky in the middle of the day in São Paulo and other cities.

Focus Survey indicates positive Brazilian financial market expectations for Brazilian economy despite the risk of a global economy crisis

According to Reuters, the market's expectation for growth in the Brazilian economy has risen again for 2019 and 2020. The Focus survey released today by the Central Bank indicates that Brazilian economists have come to see the possibility of growth in GDP. 0.83% in 2019 and 2.20% in 2020, compared to 0.81% and 2.10% respectively in the previous week.

This reading seems to be detached from global and regional reality. In the world last week was marked by fear of the world going into recession; In Argentina, the economy minister fell and the current president Mauricio Macri, with fear of losing the elections, decided to adopt a completely populist agenda in the economy.

It will be very difficult for Brazil's economy to grow, which Focus indicates today if these scenarios of global recession and the certainty of the continuing crisis in Argentina, Brazil's main regional economic partner, are confirmed.

Again, as when the election of Jair Bolsonaro occurred, the Brazilian financial market takes a stance much more closely linked to political ideology than the rational readiness of global and regional economic indicators.

While trying to criticize Norway, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro ends up releasing a video from Denmark

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has again associated Norway with killing whales in retaliation for the Scandinavian country's decision to suspend the transfer of 133 million reais to the Amazon Fund. On Sunday night, August 18, Bolsonaro posted a video to his Twitter account with images of mammal hunting that would have occurred in the Norwegian Sea. There is evidence, however, that the cases depicted occurred in the Faroe Islands, which belong to Denmark.

This episode is another demonstration of the complete lack of political and negotiating skills of the Brazilian president, who always behaves raising the tone of the conversation and, often, with misinformation.

Such behavior by the Brazilian president and some of his ministers creates insecurity and alienates foreign investors and possible economic deals like the one between Mercosur and European Union. Because of that, even after the Social Security Reform was approved, despite the president's constant unwelcome statements about the reform, international investors are still reluctant to invest their capital in Brazil.

The attacks that President Bolsonaro has made in recent days against the German chancellor Angela Merkel, the candidate leading the presidential race in Argentina Alberto Fernández, and also against the Norwegian government only reinforce this fear in international investors.

Saturday, 17 August 2019

The hashtag #idiotadeipanema gains traction on Twitter in Brazil after President Jair Bolsonaro was satirized on a humoristic German show from ARD television channel

According to the Deutsche Welle Brazil website, a prime-time humor show on the German television network ARD, portrayed Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro as "a jester, agribusiness buffoon, and protagonist of the horror classic Massacre da Serra Elétrica."

The program strongly criticized the environmental and agricultural policies of the current Brazilian government and called President Jair Bolsonaro the "Der Depp von Ipanema", which could be translated as "the vulgar man from Ipanema".

In Brazil, this fact generated on Twitter the hashtag #idiotadeipanema, which a version of the statement made by the German television program and can be translated as "the idiot from Ipanema".

In fact, the complete lack of diplomatic skill of the current Brazilian government could turn the country into a kind of global pariah. Criticism by Bolsonaro and some of his government ministers to European countries and Mercosur member nations could undermine the recently concluded free trade agreement between Mercosur-European Union. In a way, the lack of political skill of the current Brazilian government, coupled with the obvious inability of many of its members, ends up sabotaging the country's growth agenda. It's the Brazilians the biggest losers of this freak show produced daily by the Brazilian government.

Last week, for example, Bolsonaro said that the Brazilians concerned about the environment should "poop every two days" to solve the country's environmental problems. 

Livestock production breaks a record in Brazil

According to the IBGE, cattle slaughter in Brazil exceeded 8 million head in the second quarter of 2019. The result represents a growth of 2.4% compared to the previous quarter and 4.1% compared to the same period the previous year.

The institution also pointed out that "there was an increase in pig slaughter and chicken egg production. 11.39 million pig heads were slaughtered, up 5.1% and 0.7% from the first quarter and in compared to the second quarter of 2018, respectively. Chicken egg production was 930.93 million dozen, up 5.8% and 2% on the same basis".

Milk acquisition and leather acquisition also increased compared to the same period last year but fell compared to the first quarter of the year. But, according to Sérgio Saud, president of the Brazilian Association of Artificial Insemination (Asbia), the agreement with China will be "vital for dairy farming because today there is no outlet for Brazil's milk production. If supply increases, the first thing that happens is to bring down the price ”.

Friday, 16 August 2019

After President Jair Bolsonaro has Angela Merkel reforested Germany, the European embassy in Brazil publishes a video in which it says Germany is one of the largest densely forested countries in Europe, with 1/3 of its national area covered by forests

The German government's response to the attacks by President Jair Bolsonaro over the European country's cancellation of money sent to the Amazon Fund, aimed at protecting the Amazon rainforest, has had many repercussions in the Brazilian media.

The largest media channels in the country showed the video in the newspapers of yesterday and today. For many analysts, propaganda was a class of diplomacy for the rudeness practiced by the Brazilian president.

This week Bolsonaro stated that Brazil “did not need German money” and stated: “I even wanted to send a message to dear Angela Merkel, who suspended $ 80 million for the Amazon. Take this money and reforest Germany, okay? There it needs much more than here.”


During an interview, the Brazilian president said that "Norway is not the one that kills whales up there at the North Pole, is it? It also exploits oil there? It has nothing to offer us. It takes the money and helps [chancellor] German] Angela Merkel reforesting Germany ".

Environmentalists, scientists, and expert journalists say that the destruction of the Amazon has been increasing under the Bolsonaro government and that current environmental policies run counter to environmental guidelines.

Chaotic and volatile week scares the Brazilian financial market; the Ibovespa (IBOV) index varied almost 3 thousand points yesterday

Almost two months after hitting the previously unprecedented 100,000-point mark, the Bovespa Index, the Ibovespa (IBOV), has again curved against the strong risk aversion in the international market. In an environment of intense volatility since June 19, when the Ibovespa it had been holding above 100,000 points, reaching over 105,000 on July 10. From that peak, the international market turmoil coupled with the election results in Argentina and the unpreparedness of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's government to participate in political negotiations in the country and internationally have been holding back the index's advance beyond this level. Since then, the index has fallen by 6.39%.

The actions of the Brazilian Central Bank helped to hold the dollar around the 4 reais, which, in a way, helped calm the financial market a bit.

Today the Ibovespa has opened up, but in recent days the index has shown very large variations. This morning, the index recovered part of the accumulated losses in recent days. A scenario of corrections for the violent falls of recent days.

Inequality does not stop growing in Brazil and already reached 23.3 million people; unemployment reaches 12 million people

According to a study by FGV Social economist Marcelo Neri, Brazil faces the longest period of increasing inequality in its history. There are already 17 consecutive quarters of the increase in income concentration in the country. The survey also notes that the number of poor grew in the country and reached 23.3 million in 2017, the most recent data. These are people who live on less than 233 reais per month.

To make matters worse, more than 13 million Brazilians live in poverty or extreme poverty, according to data released this week by the Unified Registry of the Ministry of Citizenship.

Unemployment continues to erode Brazilian society. According to IBGE, 3.3 million unemployed people have been looking for work for at least 2 years in the country. This number corresponds to 26.2% of the 12.8 million Brazilians who were unemployed in the second quarter of 2019.

Meanwhile, the latest Focus Report, released by the Brazilian Central Bank, predicts that the economy will grow a meager 0.81% in 2019. A very small number in the face of rising inequality and unemployment affecting Brazilian society.

Thursday, 15 August 2019

The financial market in Brazil closes down for the second day in a row; Ibovespa (IBOV), B3's main index, falls below 100,000 points

The Ibovespa closed down today. The index closed the day at 99.056 points, but the drop during the day reached the level of 2%. However, at the end of the day, the index fell 1.2%.

The day on the Bovespa was marked by investors selling stocks and looking for safer assets. It was a flight to quality movement.

Global risk aversion, fearing a new economic recession, has forced the Brazilian Central Bank, for the first time since the 2009 crisis, to announce that it is going into cash to control the rise in the US currency. The Brazilian Central Bank has also announced that it will offer foreign exchange swap contracts.

Today, at an event promoted by BancoSantander in São Paulo, the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, minimized global economic adversity. He said that he had no fear of being swallowed by the international market and that Brazil did not need Argentina to grow its economy.

In fact, the crisis in Argentina has affected and continues to affect the Brazilian economy. Guedes's phrase shows a mixture of arrogance and unpreparedness for the post of Minister of Economy.

The crisis in Argentina, Brazil's third-largest trading partner, affects everything from the Brazilian tourism industry to bus, beer and steel companies. To say that Brazil does not need Argentina is to ignore how the Brazilian economy works.

Norway paralyzes transfers of over R$ 130 million to the Amazon Fund

Norway follows Germany and freezes part of its funding to the Amazon fund. Both countries argue Brazil has violated the fund's terms. Bolsonaro told Merkel to use the 35 million euros to reforest Germany.

According to the Norwegian Minister of Climate and Environment, Ola Elvestuen, the European country will suspend the sending of about R $ 133 million that would be destined for the Amazon Fund. According to Elvestuen, Brazil is breaking the agreement to reduce deforestation.

The decision of the German and Norwegian governments came because the Brazilian government wanted to change the operation of the Fund and allocate resources to compensate landowners.

According to the Gazetaweb, the Amazon Fund, which has raised R $ 3 billion in grants, finances projects from states, municipalities and the private initiative for the sustainable development of the Legal Amazon. Norway and Germany together contribute over 90% of the total fund, which is managed by the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES).

Yesterday, after a very bad day in the Brazilian financial market, Bovespa (B3) starts today with a strong position adjustment movement; Goldman Sachs sees Brazil as a more "defensive" market

International financial markets yesterday showed strong turmoil in the face of the biggest fears of a global recession, after weak economic data in Germany and China mainly. This also happened in Brazil.

The Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, was affected: it fell by 2.94% to 100,258.01 points. The high of the US currency is the largest since March 27, reaching R$ 4.

Among the main casualties, Petrobras (BOV: PETR4) and Vale (BOV: VALE3) retreated above 2%. Kroton (BOV: KROT3) led declines by over 7% after the company's quarterly results were below expectations, according to Reuters.

Brazil should already be at the rate of stronger economic growth in order to face this scenario of a possible global recession. In fact, Brazilian families are not consuming because unemployment has risen. In addition, debt levels in Brazil are very high.

Despite these and several other negative indications about the Brazilian economy, Goldman Sachs said in a report that the bank is "more optimistic about the Brazilian stock market, followed by local exchange and interest rates and a little less positive about sovereign credit". 

After assessing the performance of Brazilian assets in recent weeks, which were particularly bad for emerging markets, Goldman Sachs assessed that Brazil is becoming a more “defensive” market

According to the bank, the contagion of the crisis in Argentina occurs more to a lesser degree, as a result of which Goldman Sachs believes that Brazil, which has resisted a scenario of slower global growth and problems in Argentina, should present assets with better performance than the other than your peers.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro tells German Chancellor Angela Merkel to use the Amazon deforestation aid offered by the European country to reforest Germany

According to the broadcast político site, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said German Chancellor Angela Merkel should "take the money" blocked for environmental preservation in Brazil and reforest Germany.

Over the weekend, the German government decided to suspend investments in Amazon Rainforest protection projects due to the high deforestation rates reported by Inpe and widely criticized by the Jair Bolsonaro government.

According to the broadcast político, Bolsonaro said that "I even wanted to send a message to dear lady Angela Merkel, who suspended 80 million reais (€35 million) for the Amazon. Take this money and reforest Germany, okay? It needs a lot more than here", he said during a conversation with journalists yesterday.

Following this, President Jair Bolsonaro said he does not need German money. A few days ago, German Environment Minister Svenja Schulze, who was directly responsible for canceling the money send, countered that the reaction shows that the German government is "doing exactly the right thing".

Wednesday, 14 August 2019

The defeat of Argentine president Mauricio Macri and his liberal agenda already affects the Brazilian economy; Jair Bolsonaro and Alberto Fernández exchange accusations

Argentine President Mauricio Macri was defeated by a large advantage in the country's primary elections by opposition candidate Alberto Fernández, whose deputy is former President Cristina Kirchner.

The advantage of Fernández's bid scared the financial markets. The candidate's unorthodox economic agenda is not accepted by the financial market.

The problem is that Macri's orthodox and reformist economic agenda has not brought the expected growth, but the country has worsened in many ways. When he was elected, Macri promised to end poverty, but it increased during his rule. He said he would run a liberal bias government, but ended up freezing prices for more than 60 products.

After 4 years, the population did not feel life improve with Macri. Many say it got worse. The answer, at the ballot box, is the return of Cristina Kirchner, Fernández's vice president.

The result has caused the Argentine stock market to plummet 48% (the biggest global loss on a stock exchange in one day in the last 70 years, according to Bloomberg), and the dollar has risen 30% to 58.85 pesos and was also felt in Brazil, which registered a drop of 2% in Ibovespa and dollar to $ 4. Argentina is an important market buyer of Brazilian goods - were $ 15 billion in exports last year alone.

Brazilian exports to Argentina have already shrunk by 40% in the first seven months of 2019.

The change could also affect the Brazilian market as Macri is a strategic ally of the country in negotiations for a deal between Mercosur and the European Union. President Jair Bolsonaro went public with open criticism of candidate Alberto Fernández, who responded in the same tone by calling Bolsonaro "racist, misogynist and violent."

Tuesday, 13 August 2019

Day in Brazil is marked by manifestations against the Pension Reform, education cuts and environmental policies of president Bolsonaro government; on Twitter, protesters are calling the movement #Tsunami13Agosto

Brasilia, the federal capital of Brazil, dawned with protests from indigenous people, servants, students, and teachers. Many of these protests are against Social Security Reform, cuts in education spending and the environmental policy of Jair Bolsonaro's government.

Protests and demonstrations also take place in other cities and regions of the country. In the North and Northeast, students took to the streets to criticize the federal government's educational policy and cuts in education spending.

On Twitter, the movement generated the hashtag #Tsunami13Agosto, which is one of the most talked-about topics of the day in Brazil.

Ministry of Health building in Brasilia is occupied by a group of Indigenous women

A group of about 1500 indigenous women occupied the building of the Special Secretariat of Indigenous Health (Sesai) of the Ministry of Health in Brasilia late yesterday afternoon. They are against the municipalization of indigenous health and against the decision of the Minister of Health, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, which determined the extinction of Sesai.

According to indigenous leader Sônia Guajajara, "they put an indigenous secretary in the briefcase to say that the Indigenous are represented, but she has no commitment to our people. We want to strengthen special health and subsystems. In addition, we are against legalizing deforestation. We will not accept the genocidal policy of the Bolsonaro government. We are not obliged to accept any destruction of our rights. "

BTG Pactual (BPAC11) shows a profit of R$ 1 billion in first-quarter 2019

On the balance sheet presented today, Banco BTG Pactual posted a profit of R$ 1 billion in the second quarter of 2019, up 50.2% over the same period in 2018, when it posted a profit of R$ 685 million.

According to the website Poder360, "the company's net operating revenue totaled R$ 2.2 billion, up 76.2% from R $ 1.2 billion in the second quarter of 2018. Adjusted earnings per share were R$ 1.18 and the annualized return on average equity reached 20.6% in the quarter."

Banco Inter (BIDI4) presents a 90.9% increase in net income in the second quarter of 2019

Banco Inter, a Belo Horizonte-based financial institution and one of the first digital banks in Brazil, posted a 90.9% increase in net income in the quarter over the same period last year to R $ 32.9 million.

Return on equity was 13.7%, 3.2 percentage points higher than in the second quarter of 2018.

The bank's total assets were R$ 6.754 billion, up 45.7% over the same period last year, and the expanded loan portfolio stood at R$ 3.963 billion, up 37.2% over the second quarter of last year.

Monday, 12 August 2019

Brazil enters in "technical recession" after disclosure of preview of the first quarter of 2019 GDP made today by the Brazilian Central Bank

The Brazilian economy registered a retraction of 0.13% in the second quarter of 2019, according to the Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) released by the Brazilian Central Bank today. This puts the country in a "technical recession" framework "when you have two quarters in a row of economic contraction i.e. our economy shrinks and things go south."

This index is a preview of GDP, which will be released on August 29 by the Central Bank. The 0.13% decline reported today occurred between April and June 2019 compared to the first quarter of the same year.

The Brazilian Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, said today at an event held at the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) that it is not possible to blame the current government for the economic performance of the country.

According to the newspaper Correio Braziliense, Guedes said that "It is still a short time for the government with liberal policies in the economy to present results."


Macri's defeat in regional election in Argentina surprises the Brazilian financial market; currency market reacts by devaluing the Argentine peso

The Front of All slogan, formed by Alberto Fernández and former President Cristina Kirchner, imposed a severe defeat on Argentine President Mauricio Macri in the primary elections held yesterday. Macri lost by a difference of 18 percentage points. In Buenos Aires, the country's largest electoral stronghold, the victory of Kirchnerist Alex Kicillof in the race for the office of governor points to a possible defeat by Macri in the October 27 general election.

A possible government with Cristina Kirchner as vice president will probably distance politically the Argentinians from Brazil. Argentina is Brazil's largest trading partner, but after President Jair Bolsonaro has publicly supported Macri's reelection and criticized Kirchnerist presidential candidate Alberto Fernández, who visited former President Lula in prison, the relations between the two countries will surely suffer a severe blow whit a Fernández and Kirchner victory.

Under Macri (2015-currently), the Argentine economy has not taken off. Inflation remains high (55% accumulated in 12 months) and the peso (Argentine currency) is strongly devaluated against the dollar. The tendency now is for this devaluation to be stronger due to the financial market fears of a possible Fernández victory.

Today, the first reaction of the markets was falling bonds and shares with falls of up to 35% in the price prior to opening. The shares of the Argentine companies collapsed about 20% in premarket of the New York Stock Exchange. The dollar is being sold between 49 and 51 Argentinian pesos.

Saturday, 10 August 2019

Huawei announces the construction of U$ 800 million factory in Sao Paulo State, in Brazil, to produce 5G smartphones

According to the website Poder360, the Chinese mobile company Huawei has announced that it will build another factory in Brazil, in the state of Sao Paulo. The total investment will be 800 million dollars and is expected to take place between 2020 and 2022. The Chinese giant wants to participate in the 5G auction, which the Brazilian government intends to make by the end of the first half of 2020.

Huawei aims to supply the domestic market and all of South America with devices prepared for the latest generation network.

Huawei currently has factories in two Brazilian cities: Manaus (AM), where it produces fiber optic services, and Sorocaba (SP), where it employs 2,000 people in a factory that produces infrastructure to support telephone operators.

Deutsche Welle says German ministry of Environment will suspend funding for projects in the Amazon; Yanomami leader David Kopenawa denounces illegal gold mining in Roraima

Due to the sharp increase in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, the German Ministry of Environment has decided to suspend funding for projects to protect the forest and biodiversity, german Minister Svenja Schulze said in an interview with Tagesspiegel today, according to the website Deutsche Welle Brazil.

This decision comes after new data released by the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) confirmed the significant increase in deforestation of the Amazon rainforest. In July this year, the devastation of the biome grew 278% over the same month of 2018 according to the instinct.

This information cost the office of Inpe's president, Ricardo Galvão. President Jair Bolsonaro dismissed Galvão after the release of this information. President Jair Bolsonaro, after the dismissal of the president of Inpe, said the data released by the institute were "inaccurate", but did not indicate exactly where the inaccuracies were. He also mocked the media coverage surrounding Amazon deforestation by saying she was the "chainsaw captain".

Later this week, on a Facebook broadcast, president Jair Bolsonaro again argued for gold mining to be released in the Amazon region. He made this statement alongside indigenous people of the Raposa Serra do Sol reserve, which is in Roraima. Bolsonaro defends the possibility of liberation of the activity even in indigenous lands.

However, according to leader Yanomami Dário Kopenawa, despite the denunciations made by his people, "the prospectors are still there." Kopenawa is the son of historical Yanomami leader David Kopenawa. , he is fixing a problem for the Brazilian state ”, criticizes the young vice president of the Hutukara Yanomami association in Roraima.

Friday, 9 August 2019

Brazilian services sector falls 1% in June and presents the worst performance of 2019, according to IBGE

The service sector in Brazil had the worst rate for June since 2015 with a drop in the 5 surveyed activities. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), compared to June 2018 (series without seasonal adjustment), the volume of services fell 3.6%. This should again bring down expectations for the 2019 Brazilian GDP.


Paraguayan political crisis involving the Brazilian government leads to impeachment request against Paraguayan President Mario Abdo

The energy produced by Itaipu's hydroelectric power plant, which is binational, that is, a state-owned by Brazil and Paraguay, is producing a serious political crisis in Paraguay

Paraguayan newspaper ABC Color published alleged private messages from the president of Paraguay Mario Abdo in which he allegedly pressured then Ande (Paraguayan energy state) president Pedro Ferreira for the implementation of the agreement signed in diplomatic minutes on May 24, following pressure from the government of Jair Bolsonaro. 

The point is that if this agreement were followed by Ande it would raise the energy bill for consumers in Paraguay. Therefore, President Abdo would be participating in a negotiation that harmed the population of his country.

The president of Paraguay knew all about the deal with Brazil that was damaging his country if his WhatsApp talks with the director of the Paraguayan energy company obtained by reporter Mabel Rehnfeldt of the ABC Color newspaper are true.

This stance would lead to damage to the Paraguayan government, mainly because ABC's dialogues show that the Paraguayan president knew the terms of the agreement in advance, was aware that he would increase the cost of energy in Paraguay and advised that everything should be kept confidential.

The case prompted the opposition in Paraguay to file an impeachment request against Paraguayan President Mario Abdo.

According to the ABC Color newspaper, then-Paraguayan ambassador to Brasilia, Hugo Saguier, was summoned to a meeting at the Brazilian federal government headquarters in which he was informed that the Brazilian government was dissatisfied with the non-compliance with the agreement by the Paraguayan state company, Ande.

Thursday, 8 August 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro says that a famous torturer from dictatorship times in Brazil (1964-1985) is a "national hero"

President Jair Bolsonaro said today that Colonel Carlos Alberto Brilhante Ustra, chief of DOI-Codi during the military dictatorship in Brazil, is a "national hero". There are several testimonies of political prisoners who were tortured by Ustra during the dictatorship in Brazil.

According to Miguel Reali Jr., "to consecrate a torturer, thus recognized by the judiciary, as a national hero is to legitimize torture," said the jurist and former minister of justice who was one of the authors of the impeachment request of former president Dilma Rousseff.

The barbarities committed by Ustra are widely known in Brazil. According to Amelinha Teles, one of the victims of torture during the dictatorship, the tortured suffered shocks in the anus, vagina, systematic rapes. One of the torturers masturbated while she was strapped to the "dragon chair" and threw sperm at her.

Cost of living in Brazil: IPCA grows only 0.19% in July

According to the IBGE, the July Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) varied 0.19%, 0.18 percentage points (pp) above the June result (0.01%). This was the lowest IPCA for the month of July since 2014, when it stood at 0.01%. The accumulated variation in the year was 2.42% and, compared to the last 12 months, the index fell to 3.22%, below the 3.37% recorded in the immediately preceding 12 months. In July 2018, the rate was 0.33%.

The sector that had the biggest increase in prices was housing, whose variation was 1.20%. The reason for this increase was the increase in electricity prices, which, on average, was 4.48% more expensive. Food and beverages were virtually unchanged, with prices rising by 0.01%.

In the accumulated 12-month period through July, the IPCA increased by 3.22%, against 3.37% in the previous month. Reuters poll pointed out analyst expectations were up 0.24% in July, accumulating 12-month advance of 3.28%

Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approved the Social Security Reform in the second round; text now goes to the Senate

Pension reform is expected to produce savings of approximately R$ 900 billion over the next 10 years. This number is very close to what the Brazilian financial market expected. Now the text of the Reformation goes to the Senate, but it shouldn't change much.

Even with the approval of the Pension Reform, analysts believe that the year 2019 is already lost. That is, the Brazilian economy must remain stagnant or with very low growth until the end of the year.

The basic interest rate cut of the Brazilian economy, Selic, should continue. The Brazilian Central Bank, through the Copom, cut interest rates from 6.5 to 6% per year. Analysts believe the Copom should cut interest rates again to 5.5% at the next meeting, or at least cut interest rates by 0.25% to 5.75%.


Wednesday, 7 August 2019

Petrobras (PETR4; PETR3) studies creating two new companies for its thermoelectric plants and transportation to make IPOs on Bovespa (B3); for Goldman Sachs, Petrobras presented "positive news about pre-salt cost efficiency"

According to Jornal do Comércio, Petrobras intends to create two new companies to enable the sale of part of its transportation and energy assets. The information was given by directors of the state and the president Roberto Castello Branco in a meeting with market analysts. 

The strategy is that these companies group several assets to be offered in the stock market through an IPO similar to that made with BR Distribuidora (BRDT3), which generated almost R $ 9.6 billion.

Goldman Sachs analysts published a report following a meeting with Petrobras President and Chief Financial Officer Andrea Almeida highlighting “positive news about pre-salt cost efficiency”. For them, the Brazilian state managed to achieve, in the most recently developed platforms, an extraction cost as low as $ 4 per barrel, or 33% below the pre-salt average in the second quarter of 2019.

The financial market in Brazil celebrates the approval of runoff of Pension Reform by the House of Representatives; Copom report presented by the Brazilian Central Bank's points toward the perspective for new cuts in the basic economy rates, the Selic

After a vote of 370 votes in favor and 124 against, the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approved the Social Security Reform. Highlights will now be voted on, which may change some points of the approved text.

According to the website Poder360, The Central Bank announced through the report of the last Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting that the basic interest rate may fall again in the coming months. At the committee's last meeting, interest rates fell from 6,5 to 6 percent a year. This is the lowest rate in the historical series.

According to a study by economist Affonso Celso Pastore, the Brazilian economy will take a long time to improve. Latest indicators worry and point to impending economic recession. To make matters worse, weak data on Brazilian industry, trade, and services, the main drivers of the country's growth, point to a fall in Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter of 2019.

Therefore, even with the prospect of interest rate cuts by Copom, the tendency is for the Brazilian economy to continue at a very weak pace.

Tuesday, 6 August 2019

Brazilian financial market bets on the approval of the Social Security Reform in the second-round vote in the Chamber of Deputies; Tax Reform would be next step

However, there is a possibility of weakening in the text of the Social Security Reform, which aims to save around 900 billion reais in 10 years. Now in the second round, MPs cannot include new passages in the text but may remove parts of the text, which could reduce the total saved.

For most analysts, the Brazilian National Congress must now turn its attention to a Tax Reform. Yesterday, the presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate announced that they will present a single proposal for tax reform.

According to many Brazilian economists, despite this positive movement of the National Congress to work to present reforms with Social Security, there is still no guarantee of the resumption of economic growth.

Now, for analysts, Brazil needs beyond tax reform, improving the business environment, advancing infrastructure projects and promoting the opening of the economy.

Monday, 5 August 2019

Cost of living in Brazil: Petrobras (PETR4) announces a reduction in gas price, but the measure does not reach consumers; Vale (VALE3) and Petrobras (PETR3) pull Brazilian GDP down

The National Union of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Distribution Companies (Sindigás) reported that Petrobras will reduce the price of gas by up to 12% for residential consumption and up to 17% for corporate consumption. Brazilian refineries will practice the reduction in prices from today, August 5.

In Brazil, cooking gas (LPG) is usually sold in 13 kg canisters for residential use and in packages over 13 kg for business use. However, it is still unclear how the measure can cheapen cooking gas. The fall in the price for the end consumer depends on a number of factors, such as an infrastructure that allows the effective reduction of the gas price and that does not exist in Brazil.

According to the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea), Vale and Petrobras' performance in the first half of 2019 helped push Brazilian GDP down.

According to Ipea, the poor performance of the Brazilian extractive industry in the first half will decrease by 0.2 percentage point the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion of 2019, despite the expected improvement until the end of the year.

Sunday, 4 August 2019

The newspaper Folha de S.Paulo states that Brazilian Justice Minister Sérgio Moro omitted money received for giving a lecture in his accountability when he was a judge; Minister stated that the registration was made later; hashtag #MoroSonegador (meaning "Moro evader") gains momentum on Twitter

In yet another article based on alleged messages from members of the Lava Jato task force from The Intercept Brasil, the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo states that Moro omitted a paid account at the time he was a federal judge.

According to the newspaper, judges have a period of one month to inform their participation in the events and must record the date, subject, place, and entity they organized. Based on the messages, the report points to a talk Moro would not have recorded in his accountability. The minister told Folha that the omission of the event 'may have occurred by pure lapse'. In a Tweet, Moro also states that the registration was made later, in 2017.

Saturday, 3 August 2019

Industrial production in Brazil falls 0.6% in June 2019 and has a second negative month in a row

Brazilian industry fell by 0.6% in June 2019, following a decrease of 0.1% in May 2019. The loss of pace in the sector reflects the reduction in production in 17 out of 26 activities and in all major economic categories of goods. intermediary, consumer, and capital markets.

The Brazilian industrial sector accounted for 25% of GDP in 1985. Now represents about 13%.

According to the website O Cafezinho, for the Institute for Industrial Development Studies (IEDI), between 1980 and 2017, the Brazilian manufacturing industry grew by only 24%, while the world industry grew by 204% and the world excluding China increased by 135%. The United States grew at the same pace as the world outside China. Most developing countries grew above the world economy and most developed countries below. The Chinese case is unique because China has increased the size of its industrial park by more than 40 times. South Korea has increased 17 times, Indonesia and India 12 times, Malaysia and Ireland 11 times.

To Ha-Joon Chang, professor of economics at Cambridge University, "Brazil is experiencing one of the largest deindustrializations in the history of economics."

The participation of industry in the Brazilian GDP has been falling since 1986. It is deeply necessary for Brazil to grow again, to combat poverty again and to stop deindustrialization.

The government needs to re-engage in an industrial policy aimed, for example, at the Oil and Gas industries, the health industrial complex, the agribusiness industry (creating a favorable scenario for the emergence of industries of agricultural supplements, fertilizers, etc.), integrating the Brazilian industry with the whole of international trade.


Friday, 2 August 2019

Government forces suppress a group of 180 Kinikinaus Indians protesting for demarcation of land in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, in Brazil

A group of Kinikinawa Indians occupied a farm in the Aquidauana region today, August 2, 2019. Military Police (MP) were called in and used rubber bullets against the Indians. Many Indians were injured. Funai follows the situation.

Opposition Senator Humberto Costa said, "Police were tough on cracking down on the 180 Kinikinaus Indians who protested in favor of demarcating the land." According to Costa, "Under @jairbolsonaro, Funai refuses to say that there was conflict. The victims, many of them children, know what happened."
According to information from the website O Pantaneiro, the natives arrived at the site at dawn, claiming that they owned the land. The group asked the ranch owner and his wife to leave immediately.

Majority of Brazilians is against president Jair Bolsonaro's proposal to release mineral exploration in Brazil Indigenous areas

A survey by the Datafolha Institute points out that 86% of the Brazilian population disagrees with President Jair Bolsonaro's plan to open mineral exploration in Indigenous areas.

According to Datafolha, the survey was conducted between June 4 and 6, with 2,088 interviews distributed in 168 municipalities in all regions of the country. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points with a confidence level of 95%.

For environmentalists, the president's bill, which aims to release regulation of indigenous land mining, if approved, will increase the number of illegal mines on indigenous land.

A report released in late 2018 by the Amazon Georeferenced Socioenvironmental Information Network (Raisg) identified illegal mining sites in 18 indigenous reserve areas in Brazil.

For the indigenous leader, Almir Suruí, President Jair Bolsonaro's project was done without the participation of traditional populations in the discussion of the project. According to him, the project "is an environmental, social and economic setback in the country. We have not been consulted. We do not know what climate and environmental impacts this activity may have."

Brazil to Host World's Largest Biogas Plant, Pioneering Sustainable Energy

The Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) marks construction commencement of the world's largest biogas plant from citrus effluents, which is loc...