Wednesday, 29 January 2025

Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) try to hold fuel prices, but gasoline and diesel will become more expensive in February

Petrobras is not expected to increase fuel prices in Brazil in the coming days. The board of the Brazilian state-owned company meets today to outline price plans for the coming weeks. However, due to the fall of the dollar in the last 10 days and the fear that the government has of an increase generating more inflation in the country, this adjustment should be delayed until March.

Yesterday, in a meeting with President Lula, the CEO of Petrobras, Magda Chambriard, said that at some point the company will have to readjust prices due to the lag in fuel prices (14% for gasoline and 11% for diesel) with international prices..

With the price changes established during the Lula government, Petrobras no longer automatically readjusts its prices to follow changes in the international oil market. Previously, Petrobras adopted an International Parity Price (PPI) policy adopted by Michel Temer's government and maintained by the Bolsonaro's government.

This policy led the company to constantly change fuel prices in the country. In 2021, with this policy, gasoline cost twice as much (more than R$ 11,00) as it costs today (R$ 6,19).

The previous pricing policy generated expensive fuel for the population and record profits for Petrobras shareholders. For many, this policy created by Temer increases shareholders' profits at the expense of Brazilian consumers, mainly because oil production in Brazil is not done in dollars, but in reais.

At the time, then-presidential candidate Ciro Gomes, who is also in opposition to the Lula government, commented:

“A barrel of Brent oil hit US$120 this morning, and they are going to transfer that”, said Ciro Gomes in 2022. 

Ciro argued that he had nothing "to do with the cost of Brazilian production, in real terms, with Russia's war in Ukraine”, for example, or with any other changes occurring in the international oil market given that a large part of oil production in Brazil takes place within the country.

This effort by Petrobras also comes as fuel prices are set to rise in February due to an increase in ICMS, a state tax levied by governors.

According to IstoÉ Dinheiro magazine, for gasoline, the tax collection is expected to increase by R$0.0979, from R$1.37 to R$1.47 per liter, which represents an increase of 7.14 %. For diesel, the ICMS will rise by 5.31% or R$0.0565, from R$1.0635 to R$1.12 per liter.



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