Showing posts with label OpenAi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OpenAi. Show all posts

Wednesday, 22 April 2026

The end of 'hyper-globalisation': How AI and the climate crisis are reshaping our world

AI research has advanced from being a concept in science fiction to becoming a basic part of modern society which delivers exceptional efficiency and user-friendly solutions. The implementation of AI systems that monitor our speech and behavior has created an experience which people find challenging to control thus leading to feelings of impending doom. 

The O Assunto podcast featured a recent episode in which renowned economist and philosopher Eduardo Giannetti presented his argument that "hyper-globalisation" has now reached its final point of existence which began with the 1980s liberalization initiatives of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. The current dismantling of this era takes place through three major events which include the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic and the protectionism policies of the Trump administration.

The fragmenting order

The warnings are coming from unlikely places. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — recently cautioned investors that the "old capitalism" is fragmenting. Fink’s primary concern is that AI, far from being a universal tide that lifts all boats, may instead become a powerful engine for wealth concentration.

Giannetti agrees that we are at a crossroads. "Hyper-globalisation increased the interdependence of markets, but it also revealed immense fragilities," he says. The pandemic exposed the risks of lean, global supply chains that rely on a handful of suppliers for critical goods, from pharmaceutical ingredients in China to advanced chips in Taiwan. "The strict logic of economic efficiency failed to account for security," Giannetti observes.

AI: Productivity or peril?

While techno-optimists predict that AI could boost productivity by 5% in the coming years, others fear it could compromise 40% of jobs worldwide. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has even ranked the unchecked advancement of AI alongside the climate crisis as an existential threat to humanity.

The central question of the AI era is one of distribution. If AI generates a massive economic surplus by reducing costs and increasing efficiency, who captures that value? The fear is that this "surplus" will be hoovered up by a tiny elite: the owners of AI companies and a small class of highly skilled professionals capable of orchestrating these complex systems. Meanwhile, the "losers" will be the vast majority of professionals whose tasks are progressively automated.

"The machines of the 21st century are beginning to perform tasks alone, faster and more efficiently than humans, without needing holidays or sick leave," Giannetti notes. In a world where the 400 richest Americans already hold more wealth than the bottom 150 million, the potential for social instability is profound.

The Digital Oracle

This concern is not new. Joseph Weizenbaum, creator of ELIZA, the first chatbot in the 1960s, observed his own secretary developing an intimate bond with the program, preferring its counsel over human interaction. This anecdote highlights a recurring theme: humans readily project emotional and intellectual authority onto AI, even when aware of its artificial nature.

For Weizenbaum, any professional who did that would be abandoning or giving very little importance to interhuman relationships, which, in turn, were the field where all civilizations were produced. Civilizations are the fruit of communal life. As Aristotle would say, man is a "zoon politikon" (political/social animal) by nature, meaning that he only realizes his essence and achieves happiness (eudaimonia) by living in community (polis).

Today, this phenomenon has escalated. Reports, including one in The Economist, indicate a growing trend of individuals consulting AI chatbots for psychological support, often bypassing human therapists. While some argue that AI offers a non-judgmental space for users to hear what they want to hear, experts like Weizenbaum, even in the 1960s, posited that any professional replaceable by a digital program deserves to be replaced, implying a failure to provide the uniquely human elements of empathy and genuine connection. 

According to evolutionary biologist Edward O. Wilson, "we have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and god-like technology". Therefore, our ancient emotional frameworks are ill-equipped to handle technologies capable of planetary destruction and profound social disruption. AI, in this context, can exacerbate isolation by validating users' biases and fostering a dangerous sense of self-sufficiency that detaches them further from social groups. The consequences can be dire. 

The rapid expansion of human knowledge has also led to the demise of the traditional "scholar" — the polymath capable of mastering diverse fields. Today, specialization is so extreme that even experts struggle to communicate across disciplines without intermediaries. This hyper-specialization, a consequence of the Enlightenment's drive for rationalization, has gone too far, culminating in a model where the ultimate goal of human endeavor becomes a predictable, mathematical robot.

A new Cold War

We are also entering what many describe as a new Cold War. Instead of nuclear warheads, the new arms race is over "Artificial General Intelligence" (AGI). The rivalry between the US and China is no longer just about trade; it is about sovereignty. Whichever nation achieves AGI first may gain an insurmountable lead in both economic and military power.

This competition is already hindering global regulation. When companies like Anthropic attempt to set ethical boundaries, governments simply turn to rivals like OpenAI. Without a transnational authority to set the rules of the game, we are in "dangerous territory," where corporate and national competition overrides the collective interests of humanity.

The Brazilian opportunity

However, Giannetti offers a surprisingly hopeful perspective for emerging economies, particularly Brazil. During the era of hyper-globalisation, Brazil struggled to integrate into global value chains, remaining largely a commodity exporter. But as the world moves toward "near-shoring" and seeks reliable, geopolitically stable partners with abundant natural resources, Brazil’s hand has strengthened.

"Brazil has everything it needs to rethink and reposition itself," Giannetti argues. The country’s wealth of critical minerals, clean energy, and food production capacity makes it an attractive partner for the US, China, and Europe alike. "We can use the rivalry between the great powers to our advantage, negotiating for technology and capital to industrialise our comparative advantages."

Brazil also has strong potential to become a global AI hub, but achieving this depends on establishing clear governance, regulation, and strategic direction. While countries like the U.S., China, and Europe currently lead, Brazil can compete by focusing on the responsible and strategic use of AI, especially in business applications.

A key priority is building robust AI governance within companies, starting with internal committees, clear policies, and employee training. Rather than restricting AI, organizations should guide its use to improve efficiency and competitiveness, while addressing risks such as misuse of generative tools.

Brazil can learn from global experiences but must avoid superficial adoption driven by hype. Many AI initiatives lack clear purpose or return on investment, and a significant portion may be abandoned as companies mature in their strategies.

Regulation remains a delicate balance: overly strict rules could hinder innovation, while insufficient oversight raises concerns about data security, copyright, and bias. 

Finally, companies and universities play a critical role in building an AI ecosystem by promoting education, defining responsibilities, and integrating AI into organizational structures. With coordinated efforts in governance, strategy, and collaboration, Brazil can harness AI’s potential while managing its risks.

Wednesday, 4 February 2026

Is an AI Bubble Next? Comparing Today's Tech Boom to the 2008 Financial Crisis

Recent analyses suggest a potential economic downturn, possibly more severe than the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, driven by the overvaluation of leading technology companies, often dubbed the "Magnificent Seven," and speculative investments in artificial intelligence (AI). 

Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, the S&P 500 has surged about 90%, with most gains driven by a small group of AI-linked technology giants, including Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, and major data-center operators.

Nvidia has emerged as the sector’s standout, evolving from a gaming chipmaker into a central supplier of AI infrastructure and approaching record-breaking market valuations. However, critics warn that much of the investment flowing into AI companies is being recycled within the sector itself, creating a tightly interconnected financial system that could amplify risks if sentiment shifts.

This perspective is underscored by concerns from industry leaders, including CEOs of major tech firms, who hint at the fragility of current market valuations and the potential for widespread economic fallout.

High-profile investors have also entered the debate. Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has publicly bet against the AI boom, arguing that extreme capital concentration often precedes major downturns. His warnings have prompted some fund managers to reduce exposure to technology stocks. Critics, however, note that several of Burry’s post-2008 predictions did not come true.

Regulators and analysts also have raised red flags. The Bank of England has cautioned that AI-related stocks may be overvalued, while media reports highlight soaring executive and researcher compensation as a sign of overheating. Despite massive funding, key players such as OpenAI are not yet profitable.
 

Echoes of the Subprime Meltdown 


The 2008 subprime crisis serves as a critical precedent for understanding the current anxieties. At its core, the subprime crisis was fueled by an immense creation of fictitious capital within the U.S. real estate market. This involved inflated property values, often detached from their intrinsic worth, and a pervasive system of securitization. 

The Subprime Mechanism: 

  • Fictitious Capital: The housing bubble led to assets being priced unrealistically. 
  • Securitization (CDOs): Mortgage-backed securities, known as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), were widely distributed globally. These instruments, similar to Brazil's Real Estate Receivable Certificates (CRIs), allowed banks to offload risk by selling debt to investment funds worldwide. 
  • Excess Liquidity and Risky Lending: An abundance of capital in the financial system led banks to extend credit to increasingly unqualified borrowers, including those with no ability to repay, in pursuit of higher returns. This was rationalized by a booming market where property values and rents were consistently rising, seemingly ensuring repayment. 
  • Bubble Burst: The unsustainable rise in property prices eventually led to a saturation point, with properties becoming vacant and rents failing to cover mortgage payments. Defaults surged, leading to foreclosures and a rapid decline in property values as seized assets flooded the market. 
  • Global Contagion: The failure of CDOs caused investment funds holding these securities to lose massive value, triggering a liquidity crisis. Investors rushed to redeem funds, forcing asset liquidations across various markets (stocks, bonds), creating a domino effect that crippled the global financial system. 

The Current AI and Tech Bubble Today, concerns center on the Magnificent Seven (The largest tech companies in the S&P 500) which disproportionately drive market growth. The AI sector, in particular, is seen as a new locus of fictitious capital formation. Despite massive investments, AI technologies are not yet generating sufficient revenue to justify their soaring valuations, drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. 

Industry figures, such as Microsoft's CEO and Sam Altman (OpenAI), have openly acknowledged the existence of this bubble, even suggesting that government intervention might be necessary should it burst. This indicates an awareness within the industry that current valuations are unreal and predicated on future cash flows that may not materialize for many companies. 

Factors Contributing to the Current Bubble: 

  • Unjustified Valuations: Companies like Palantir, trading at 116 times revenue, exemplify valuations detached from fundamental asset value, which theoretically should be based on the ability to generate future cash flow. 
  • Passive ETF Management: Over half of the capital entering the U.S. stock market is managed passively through algorithms that automatically buy index proportions. This mechanism artificially inflates the prices of larger companies, with studies suggesting that Apple's price, for instance, was inflated by 23% due to these passive flows alone. 
  • Baby Boomer Effect: The impending retirement of the baby boomer generation is expected to lead to significant withdrawals from investment funds, potentially reversing the positive inflow trends and exacerbating market instability. 

Potential Impact of a Bursting Bubble 


Should this bubble burst, the consequences are projected to be severe and systemic. The disappearance of wealth would lead to a sharp reduction in consumer spending and overall economic activity. Assets, widely used as collateral throughout the financial system, would trigger cascading losses, leading to a profound liquidity crisis and a halt in money circulation. 

Historically, such crises result in the failure of smaller businesses, the contraction of medium-sized enterprises, and the opportunistic acquisition of undervalued assets by larger entities. This process invariably leads to a further concentration of wealth among the already rich and an expansion of poverty, illustrating a cyclical aspect of capitalism where crises of overproduction of fictitious capital are periodically resolved through its destruction.

Analysts also point to broader consequences, including environmental concerns tied to the rapid expansion of energy-intensive data centers

For now, experts agree on one point: bubbles are only confirmed after they burst, but the warning signs are becoming harder to ignore.


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