The American farmers, particularly the soybean producers, paid dearly in recent years as a consequence of the trade war initiated by President Donald Trump. Tariffs on Chinese goods and the retaliatory measures by China have altered the global trade flows to the disadvantage of the U.S. agricultural sector. This article aims at analyzing how the imposition of such tariffs led to the patronage of Brazil and other South American suppliers by China, thus causing a decline in U.S. exports and a depression in prices domestically.
Assemblies at town squares had hundreds of farmers attending to express their concerns about rising debt, outdated agriculture equipment, and shrinking profit. American agriculture produces 40% more than it consumes domestically, and a quarter of the soybeans produced in the US are destined for export, the largest buyer being China. But estimated losses from exports going from about $12-$14 billion to zero because of tariffs from the Chinese side caused a shift to purchases from Brazil, which is now investing heavily in Brazilian and African agriculture.
After the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, farmers in the U.S. are now confronted with these steep losses: $375 per acre for cotton; $220 for corn; $120 for soybeans; with the total production costs even well above the market price. While government subsidies, during the previous tariff war under Trump, provided some relief to farmers, the real solution is reinstating international market access for American farmers. For now, there seems to be a big partisan preference favoring Trump among farmers; however, an increasing number are having second thoughts amidst financial hardships.
For the very first time, U. S. soybean farmers are going into the harvest without having sold a single kilogram of soybeans to their main buyer, China. In spite of early expectations for expanded trade, it appears China is boycotting American soybeans.
USDA data show a steady, sharp decline in Chinese purchases, from over 13 million tons in 2020 to almost 8 million in 2021, 11 million in 2022, 6 million in 2023, under 4 million in 2024, and 0 in 2025. Soybean farmers are worried, for China is the world's largest buyer of soybeans and has been the biggest single buyer of U.S. soy.
The American Soybean Association has decided to write a letter to President Trump urging that negotiations begin immediately, as they warn that Brazil is taking over the market. Brazilian exports to China between April and June set a record, with 8 million tons already contracted for September 2025, and another 4 million contracted for October, roughly the amount that the United States used to sell in the same time period.
U.S. soybean prices have already been lowered to below international levels given a weak demand. Farmers fear facing severe financial setbacks if China keeps aside American soybeans, in turn leaving Brazil as the main supplier.
Background: The Tariff War Escalates
The Trump administration levied high tariffs on Chinese imports, part of a broader "America First" trade strategy. yeutter-institute.unl.edu+4Wikipedia+4Successful Farming+4
China responded with its own tariffs and trade barriers, particularly targeting key U.S. agricultural products like soybeans. Common Dreams+3iasoybeans.com+3yeutter-institute.unl.edu+3
Shift in Global Supply: From U.S. to Brazil (and Others)
In 2025, China’s imports of soybeans from Brazil surged, while imports from the U.S. dropped sharply. American Soybean Association+3Reuters+3Successful Farming+3
For example, in July 2025, China imported ~11.67 million metric tons of soybeans — its largest July import ever — driven significantly by Brazilian exports. Brazil supplied nearly 90% of those shipments, while U.S. exports lagged far behind — only about 420,000 tons from the U.S. in that same month. Successful Farming+3Hellenic Shipping News+3Reuters+3
China has not made new purchase commitments for U.S. soybeans for the upcoming harvest season, largely due to the high tariffs that make U.S.-produced soybeans economically uncompetitive. American Soybean Association+2Successful Farming+2
How U.S. Farmers Are Being Harmed
1. Loss of Market Access
China has traditionally been the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans. With trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs, that market has become far less accessible. This loss of demand has hurt U.S. farmers by:
Shrinking export volumes. American Soybean Association+2Successful Farming+2
Forcing them to compete with Brazilian soybeans, which are now more attractive to Chinese buyers due to lower costs and no high U.S.-China tariffs. Successful Farming+2iasoybeans.com+2
2. Price Pressure & Oversupply
Because China is buying less from the U.S., large supplies remain unsold or must be sold at lower prices. This creates downward pressure on soybean futures and on farm incomes. American Soybean Association+1
Traders have noted futures prices for U.S. soybeans have dropped significantly during 2025 in light of abundant supply and weak export demand. American Soybean Association+1
3. Competitive Disadvantage
U.S. soybeans face tariff disadvantages: China’s retaliatory tariffs raise the cost of U.S. soybeans relative to competitors like Brazil. Successful Farming+1
Currency exchange rates, Brazil’s harvest timing, and lower production/transport costs also play roles in making Brazilian soybeans more appealing. U.S. farmers find themselves squeezed. Reuters+1
4. Uncertainty for Future Crops
Lack of long-term purchase commitments from China means U.S. farmers face planning difficulties. Decisions about planting, financing, and investment become riskier when major buyers are off the table due to trade policy. American Soybean Association+2Successful Farming+2
The Broader Consequences
Regions heavily dependent on soybean agriculture (Midwest states like Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, etc.) are experiencing the ripple effects: lower revenues, increased reliance on government aid, and greater financial stress. iasoybeans.com+2American Soybean Association+2
U.S. export revenues from soybeans and related agricultural products have diminished, contributing to trade imbalances and affecting rural communities. Successful Farming+1
Possible Remedies and What’s at Stake
Negotiating a reduction or waiver of the Chinese retaliatory tariffs could help restore competitiveness for U.S. soybeans. Successful Farming+1
Diversifying export markets beyond China may help U.S. farmers mitigate dependency risk. Some markets in Asia, the EU, or elsewhere could absorb more soybean exports if trade conditions permit. Successful Farming
Domestic policy support (subsidies, price insurance, infrastructure improvements) could alleviate short-term losses — though these are often costly and politically contentious.
There’s a broader strategic issue: persistent trade tensions reduce predictability for farmers, which can discourage investment in agriculture and harm long-term competitiveness.
While the Trump administration’s tariffs were intended to protect U.S. industries and rebalance trade relations with China, the unintended consequences for U.S. soybean farmers have been severe. Tariffs set off a chain reaction: China buys less from the U.S., turns to Brazil and other suppliers, U.S. farmers lose market share and face falling prices, and rural communities suffer economic strain. Unless the U.S. adapts, either through policy changes, diplomatic compromise, or market diversification, these harms may continue to multiply.
