Short history of unemployment in Brazil, from 1900 to today

The history of unemployment in Brazil is a topic that has evolved significantly over time, changing as the country's politics went through democratic and dictatorial periods. It is always important to remember that the job market in Brazil, since the beginning of the 20th century, was built on a foundation that, until 1888, was based on slavery, it is also important to emphasize that the black population was massively excluded from the job market after the abolition of slavery.

Therefore, the emergence of the job market in Brazil took place within a context of profound social inequality and the total helplessness of black people by the government.

The Brazilian job market was born, therefore, within an environment of exclusion towards a significant part of the workforce (the black population) and several public policies aimed at financing immigration (mostly Europeans).

Between 1851 and 1900, approximately 2 million immigrants entered Brazil. This number represented half of the Brazilians who were out of the job market during this period. Thus, the exclusion is evident. Brazilians themselves, especially the black population freed after the end of slavery, could have met a significant part of this demand for labor.

Here is an overview of the key periods and trends in Brazil's unemployment history:

• Early Years (1900s-1950s): In the early 20th century, Brazil experienced significant economic changes, transitioning from an agrarian-based system to industrialization. Unemployment rates during this period were relatively low due to strong demand for labor in expanding industries such as mining, agriculture, and manufacturing.
• Industrialization and Urbanization (1960s-1970s): The 1960s and 1970s marked a period of rapid industrialization and urbanization in Brazil. While this led to economic growth and job creation in urban areas, it also resulted in structural unemployment as traditional agricultural jobs declined. The government implemented policies promoting industrialization and infrastructure development, influencing employment patterns.
• Economic Instability (1980s): The 1980s were characterized by economic instability in Brazil, marked by high inflation, debt crises, and recession. These challenges contributed to rising unemployment rates as businesses struggled, leading to layoffs and reduced hiring.
• Stabilization and Reforms (1990s): In the early 1990s, Brazil implemented economic stabilization measures, including the Plano Real in 1994, which aimed to control inflation and stabilize the economy. While these reforms initially led to improvements in economic stability, they also resulted in short-term job losses and adjustments in various sectors.
• Periods of Growth and Recession (2000s-2010s): Throughout the 2000s and early 2010s, Brazil experienced periods of economic growth driven by factors such as commodity exports, domestic consumption, and government policies. However, there were also periods of recession and economic slowdown, leading to fluctuations in unemployment rates.
• Recent Years (2010s-2020s): In the latter part of the 2010s and into the 2020s, Brazil faced economic challenges, including political instability, fiscal deficits, and the impact of global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. These factors contributed to fluctuations in unemployment rates, with periods of job creation followed by increases in unemployment due to economic downturns.

Brazil Records Lowest Unemployment Rate on Record in 2025

Brazil’s official unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in November 2025, marking the lowest level since the historical series began in 2012, according to data released by IBGE, the country’s national statistics agency.

Federal government figures from the Continuous PNAD survey show that, in the three months ending in November, 5.644 million people were actively seeking work — the smallest number of unemployed Brazilians ever recorded by the survey. By contrast, the peak of unemployment occurred during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, in the quarter ending March 2021, when the number of unemployed reached 14.979 million.

The decline in unemployment was accompanied by a record level of employment, with 103.2 million people working across the country.

In the quarter ending October 2025, the unemployment rate stood at 5.4%, also the lowest figure in the series. 

Growth, inflation and fiscal debate

Despite concerns that low unemployment and faster-than-expected economic growth could fuel inflation, there is so far no consistent evidence that labor market tightness is driving price pressures. Economic activity has expanded well above earlier forecasts, many of which underestimated Brazil’s growth momentum.

While fiscal discipline, spending cuts and debt dynamics remain important policy challenges, the latest labor data suggest that Brazil’s economy is not on the brink of collapse, as some narratives suggest. Instead, the figures point to rising employment, income growth and improved welfare, particularly for lower-income households.

Throughout Brazil's history, various factors have influenced unemployment rates, including economic policies, global economic conditions, technological advancements, demographic changes, and social factors. Government interventions, such as employment programs, social welfare initiatives, and labor market regulations, have also played a role in shaping labor market dynamics and positively addressing unemployment challenges.

Currently, one of the main challenges the country is confronted with is the need for more efficiency. Brazil has to create and promote a national ecosystem that is more and more innovation- and technical education-oriented. Large-scale funding for research and development, technical education, and a solid industrial policy are among the main factors that need to be implemented in order to reach this goal. However, in a political and business environment that is always focused on the next quarter or the next election, who will be the one to lead the economic strategy that could possibly take 20 or 30 years to demonstrate its effects?

Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) at a Crossroads: Venezuela’s Crisis, Carbon Research, and the Future of Brazilian Fuel

Political instability in Venezuela and growing uncertainty over the future of its oil industry may have direct and indirect consequences for Petrobras and fuel prices in Brazil. While a potential increase in Venezuelan oil supply could push global crude prices lower, analysts warn that Brazilian consumers may not fully benefit due to limited transparency in Petrobras’ pricing policy.

The global energy landscape is shifting rapidly, and at the center of this transformation is Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil giant. From the geopolitical tremors in Venezuela to groundbreaking carbon stock research and the expansion of cleaner fuels, the company is navigating a complex web of challenges and opportunities that will define Brazil's economic and environmental future.

Venezuela, U.S. Influence, and Global Oil Prices

If the United States succeeds in expanding control over Venezuela’s oil reserves and reopening the country to private investment, global oil markets could respond with downward pressure on crude prices.

“If the market believes that the U.S. will effectively take control of Venezuela and that American and other private companies will return to investing there in the short term, the tendency is for oil prices to fall,” says economist Adriano Pires, founder and director of Brazil’s Center for Infrastructure Studies (CBIE).

Lower oil prices typically reduce revenues for oil producers. In 2025, crude markets already faced sharp declines: WTI crude fell nearly 20%, its worst annual performance since 2020, while Brent crude dropped around 14%. “For Petrobras, this is not positive, because it means lower revenue,” Pires notes.

Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Pressure

In the immediate aftermath of geopolitical shocks, oil prices often rise due to uncertainty. Following the initial escalation in Venezuela, crude prices briefly increased by about 1%.

“Instability tends to push prices up in the short term,” explains Marcelo Godke, a specialist in international business law. “But in the medium to long term, the scenario points in the opposite direction, toward lower prices.”

If Venezuelan production expands sustainably, the increase in global supply could weigh on oil prices for years, affecting Petrobras’ profitability and investment capacity.

What Happens to Petrobras and Other Brazilian Oil Companies?

The medium- and long-term effects on Brazilian oil companies remain uncertain. A sustained drop in global prices would reduce margins, while increased competition could reshape regional dynamics.

Brazil’s Vice President and Minister of Development, Geraldo Alckmin, downplayed immediate concerns, emphasizing that Venezuela’s production recovery would require significant investment and time, not something achievable “overnight.”

At the same time, a reopening of Venezuela’s oil sector could create new business opportunities. Smaller oil fields may attract mid-sized companies, including Brazilian firms such as PetroReconcavo and Prio, rather than global majors like Chevron.

However, rising geopolitical instability in Latin America may discourage foreign capital, limiting the speed and scale of investment.

Will Brazilian Oil Exports Be Affected?

According to economists, Brazil’s oil export volumes are unlikely to face major disruptions in the short term.

Economist Simão Silber, a professor at the University of São Paulo (USP), explains that increased Venezuelan supply, particularly if directed toward the United States, could shift trade flows rather than eliminate Brazilian exports.

“Other markets, especially in Asia, may become more favorable for Brazil if Venezuelan oil is redirected,” Silber says. Historically, Venezuela supplied large volumes to China, a country with limited domestic oil reserves.

Brazil’s production and export levels will also continue to be influenced by OPEC+, the expanded oil producers’ group that includes Venezuela. While OPEC+ sets production quotas, its influence has weakened in recent years, with some members, including Saudi Arabia, previously exceeding agreed limits.

Will Fuel Prices Fall in Brazil?

Lower global oil prices could, in theory, lead to cheaper gasoline and diesel at Brazilian fuel stations. In practice, the outcome is far less certain.

Since the beginning of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third term, Petrobras has adopted a new pricing policy to reduce exposure to international price volatility. However, the pricing formula has not been fully disclosed, limiting predictability.

“Fuel prices in Brazil are highly controlled,” Silber explains. “Any adjustment will depend primarily on government decisions. If prices change, the tendency would be downward, not upward.”

Adriano Pires adds that political considerations, including inflation control and interest rate policy, may increase pressure for price cuts. Fuel prices have a broad impact on inflation, and lower costs could even create room for monetary easing.

The "Carbon Countdown": A $108 Million Scientific Bet

In a move toward environmental accountability, Petrobras and Shell have announced a joint investment of R$ 108 million (approx. $21 million USD) to fund the Carbon Countdown project. This massive research initiative, led by the University of São Paulo (USP), aims to map carbon stocks in soils and forests across all Brazilian states by 2030.

Key Features of the Carbon Countdown Project

While the project is hailed as a step toward "energy security and decarbonization" by Shell’s Alexandre Breda, some NGOs, such as the Arayara International Institute, warn of potential conflicts of interest. They argue that fossil fuel companies might use such data to legitimize carbon credits while continuing oil exploration, a practice often criticized as greenwashing.

Boosting Cleaner Energy: The Rise of Diesel S-10

Amidst these geopolitical and environmental debates, Petrobras is also focusing on operational efficiency. The Henrique Lage Refinery (Revap) in São Paulo has recently expanded its production capacity for Diesel S-10 by 80%.
This low-sulfur fuel is crucial for reducing pollutant emissions and meeting the demands of modern, high-efficiency engines. By optimizing its refining park, Petrobras is shifting its focus from the older S-500 diesel to the cleaner S-10 variant, aligning with stricter environmental standards and market trends.

Uncertainty Still Dominates the Outlook

Despite market speculation, the carbon research, and the future of Brazilian fuel, the coming months for Petrobras remain shrouded in uncertainty, mainly due to the still unclear situation in Venezuela and that country's oil production.

“We still don’t know how a political transition would unfold,” says political scientist Leonardo Paz, from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). “Will new elections be held? Who will effectively govern? These questions remain unanswered.”

If political instability persists and production fails to recover, oil prices could move in the opposite direction, rising instead of falling.

“We need to be very cautious,” says economist Carlos Honorato, from FIA Business School. “There is no immediate positive news for oil supply yet.”

What This Means for Brazil

The Venezuelan crisis highlights how geopolitics, energy markets, and domestic policy intersect. While lower oil prices could ease inflation and benefit consumers, Petrobras’ pricing strategy and political uncertainty will determine whether those gains reach Brazilian households.

For now, the outlook remains balanced between potential relief at the pump and continued uncertainty in global energy markets.

Petrobras stands at a strategic bifurcation. On one hand, it must manage the risks of global commodity volatility and regional instability. On the other, it is investing in the science of the future and the infrastructure for cleaner fuels. Whether these moves will secure Brazil’s position as a global energy leader or leave it vulnerable to market shifts remains the defining question for the coming decade.

Mercosur–EU Trade Agreement: Why the Deal Is a Strategic Win for Brazil

The trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union establishes one of the world’s largest free trade zones, granting Brazilian products preferential access to a market of nearly 450 million consumers across the EU. The deal also provides the gradual elimination of import tariffs on agricultural and industrial goods, significantly improving Brazil’s export competitiveness.

For Brazil, the agreement represents far more than a commercial milestone. It is a strategic economic, industrial, and geopolitical achievement, years in the making, and one that reinforces the country’s position in a rapidly changing global trade environment.

In fact the agreement between the European Union and Mercosur is a step forward for both Brazil and Europe at a political moment dominated by protectionist actions and a type of opposition to multilateralism from the US government.

Opportunities, Risks, and Brazil’s Industrial Future

Although it is an undeniable positive step towards multilateralism, there are also risks associated with this agreement.

Economist Paulo Gala, for example, argues that while the Mercosur–European Union agreement may represent a political and diplomatic advance, it raises serious concerns from a development perspective. 

According to his analysis, the deal risks reinforcing an asymmetric trade pattern in which Brazil predominantly exports low–human-capital commodities, such as agricultural goods and raw materials, while importing high–value, technology-intensive industrial products from Europe. 

This dynamic, he warns, could deepen Brazil’s dependence on primary exports, limit learning and innovation spillovers, and hinder the country’s ability to move up the industrial and technological ladder. Without a robust domestic strategy focused on industrial policy, technological upgrading, and human capital formation, the agreement may accelerate what Gala describes as a “regressive specialization,” locking Brazil into a middle-income trap rather than fostering long-term development.

Expanded Market Access and Greater Competitiveness

Therefore, by reducing and eventually eliminating tariffs, Brazilian exports, especially in agribusiness, food processing, mining, and manufactured goods, are expected to become more competitive in European markets. Lower trade barriers can translate into reduced export costs, higher margins for Brazilian companies, and stronger integration into global value chains.

The agreement also sends a clear signal to international investors: Brazil is committed to rules-based trade, long-term stability, and deeper economic integration with advanced economies.

A Long and Complex Negotiation Process

Negotiations between Mercosur and the EU took more than two decades, largely due to the complexity of aligning interests among dozens of countries, sectors, and regulatory frameworks. While resistance persisted in some European countries (particularly France, Poland, and Hungary), the final outcome may reflects a “win-win” compromise, balancing agricultural sensitivities with industrial and services opportunities.

Importantly, business communities across Europe, especially in Germany, Spain, Italy, and France’s industrial and services sectors, have shown growing optimism about the deal’s potential.

Why Europe Also Benefits, and Why That Matters for Brazil

While Mercosur countries are often seen as the main beneficiaries, Europe also stands to gain substantially. The EU is a global leader in high-value industrial goods, technology, and services, and the agreement opens new demand for these products in South America.

For Brazil, this dynamic is crucial. European companies may increasingly choose to produce or expand operations in Brazil, attracted by the country’s abundant supply of clean and affordable energy. Around 60% of Brazil’s electricity comes from hydropower, complemented by strong growth in wind and solar energy, offering a competitive advantage amid Europe’s energy constraints.

Industrial Development, Clean Energy, and Jobs

The agreement has the potential to accelerate industrial investment in Brazil, particularly in sectors linked to energy-intensive manufacturing, green technologies, and infrastructure. This can lead to job creation, technology transfer, and productivity gains, strengthening Brazil’s industrial base over the medium and long term.

At the same time, increased competition may encourage greater efficiency on both sides, including in Europe’s heavily subsidized agricultural sector.

The Risk of Deindustrialization and the Strategic Bifurcation

One of the central risks highlighted in the debate over the Mercosur-EU agreement is the so-called “competitiveness shock.” While greater exposure to international competition could theoretically stimulate efficiency and innovation, this mechanism tends to work best when domestic industries already possess a solid technological base and access to financing. 

Critics argue that much of Brazil’s manufacturing sector enters this agreement from a position of structural weakness, shaped by decades of high interest rates, volatile exchange rates, and logistical bottlenecks. 

Under these conditions, sudden trade liberalization might lead not to modernization, but to deindustrialization and firm closures, as domestic producers struggle to compete with highly capitalized and technologically advanced European firms. 

This dynamic places Brazil at a strategic bifurcation, according to Gala: on one hand, a path of resignation, deepening its specialization in commodities while increasing reliance on high-value imported goods, which risks worsening the middle-income trap. On the other hand, a path of persistence, which requires active industrial policies and investments to build a diversified and complex productive structure. The concern is that, without robust safeguards, the agreement may tilt Brazil toward the first path, limiting its long-term development options.

Brazil’s Unique Geopolitical Position

Brazil’s role goes beyond trade. As a member of BRICS, Brazil will become the only country in the group with a free trade agreement with the European Union, positioning itself as a strategic bridge between Europe and major emerging economies such as China, India, and South Africa.

This unique status can enhance Brazil’s relevance in global supply chains and reinforce its influence in multilateral trade and diplomacy, especially at a time when global commerce faces fragmentation and protectionist pressures.

More Than Trade: A Political and Social Connection

Beyond economics, the Mercosur–EU agreement strengthens long-standing political, cultural, and social ties. Brazil’s deep historical connections with Europe, through migration, shared values, and institutional cooperation, add another layer of integration that supports stability and long-term collaboration.

Why This Agreement Matters Now

Signed amid growing global trade tensions and challenges to multilateralism, the Mercosur–EU agreement demonstrates that cooperation remains possible. For Brazil, it represents a decisive step toward economic diversification, sustainable growth, and greater international relevance.

In short, the deal positions Brazil not just as a major exporter, but as a key global partner in trade, energy, and geopolitics.

Brazil's Economic Dilemma: How High Interest Rates Fuel Debt and Undermine Long-Term Growth

Brazil enters the coming year facing a central economic dilemma: how to sustain growth in an environment deliberately designed to slow it down. While recent macroeconomic indicators show resilience, including low unemployment, controlled inflation, and modest GDP growth, clear signs of economic deceleration are already emerging. With the SELIC rate hovering near 15% per year, rising household debt, and tighter credit conditions, Brazil risks sacrificing long-term development in exchange for short-term financial stability.

This slowdown is not an unintended side effect of monetary policy. It is, in fact, its explicit objective.

The Monetary Policy Paradox in Brazil

Brazil’s Central Bank has openly stated that maintaining high interest rates is intended to curb consumption, cool the labor market, and reduce aggregate demand. Official communications confirm that economic deceleration is not a policy failure, it is the policy itself.

This approach clashes directly with fiscal policy. Although fiscal rules allow for modest real growth in public spending, any expansionary effect is neutralized by restrictive monetary conditions. The result is a policy mix that suppresses domestic consumption, historically one of Brazil’s main growth engines.

Exchange Rate Stability and Financial Dependence

One of the main justifications for high interest rates is exchange rate stability. As a peripheral economy, Brazil must offer higher returns than advanced economies to attract capital inflows. Consequently, the Brazilian real is often treated more as a financial asset than a currency, leaving it vulnerable to speculative movements.

However, current interest rates frequently exceed what is necessary to compensate for global interest differentials and risk premiums. This suggests that the policy choice reflects not only technical caution but also a political commitment to appeasing financial markets.

Deindustrialization in Brazil: A 40-Year Structural Decline

One of the most damaging long-term consequences of this monetary framework is the collapse of Brazilian industry. In 1980, manufacturing accounted for approximately 25% of Brazil’s GDP. Today, it represents barely 10%.

This decline is largely driven by two structural factors:

1. High Interest Rates and the Cost of Capital

Historically, Brazil has experienced interest rates as high as 40% per year. At such levels, productive investment becomes economically irrational. When investors can earn high, risk-free returns by holding government bonds, there is little incentive to build factories, innovate, or create jobs. Capital is diverted away from the real economy and into financial speculation.

2. Overvalued Exchange Rate and Re-Primarization

An overvalued real discourages domestic manufacturing by making imports cheaper than locally produced goods. This dynamic accelerates the “re-primarization” of exports, shifting Brazil’s economic focus toward commodities such as soybeans, iron ore, and meat rather than higher value-added industrial products.

This trajectory was not inevitable. While Brazil pursued high interest rates and a strong currency, countries like South Korea, China, and Taiwan adopted the opposite strategy with the adoption of low interest rates and competitive exchange rates, forcing capital into productive investment. In Brazil, industrial policy efforts were repeatedly undermined by macroeconomic decisions.

Credit in Brazil: From Development Tool to Financial Extraction

Within this framework, credit has shifted away from its developmental role and become primarily a mechanism for financial extraction.

Brazilian households face some of the highest interest rates in the world, often reaching four-digit annual percentages. Long repayment terms mask the true cost of borrowing, trapping families in cycles of chronic indebtedness. Social guarantees, such as severance funds, are increasingly used as collateral, eroding their original protective function.

At the same time, development banks, once central to industrialization and long-term investment, have seen their role reduced. Subsidized, long-term credit has been dismantled, weakening the countercyclical capacity of these institutions and limiting strategic investment.

Recent Economic Performance and Forecasting Errors

Despite all the structural challenges, Brazil’s economy showed resilience. GDP grew 0.1% in the third quarter, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in industry (0.8%) and agribusiness, while services lagged.

Over the past four years (2021–2024), economists have consistently underestimated Brazil’s economic performance. This pattern of forecasting errors can be attributed to three factors:

1. Underestimation of post-pandemic recovery, which was faster than in most Latin American economies.
2. Misjudgment of structural reforms implemented between 2015 and 2021, which raised potential GDP.
3. Underestimation of fiscal stimulus, particularly during the 2022–2024 period, which generated excess demand.

Inflation in Brazil: Explaining the Puzzle

Inflation has performed better than expected, falling toward the upper tolerance limit of 4.5%, with projections around 4.4% by year-end. This outcome can be explained by three key factors:

1. Global dollar devaluation, which reduced import prices and strengthened the real.
2. A record agribusiness harvest in 2023, lowering food prices nationwide.
3. Structural changes in the labor market, including labor reform, population aging, and the rise of gig economy jobs.

As a result, service inflation has remained contained despite historically low unemployment, and also despite the country's well-known problem of low productivity.

Brazil’s Economic Outlook for 2026

The ongoing deceleration suggests that monetary policy is achieving its intended effect, fueling expectations of a gradual SELIC rate-cutting cycle. Market consensus points to a reduction of around three percentage points, bringing the rate from 15% to 12%. Even so, this would leave Brazil with a real interest rate near 8%, maintaining a contractionary stance.

Fiscal challenges remain unresolved. Although the government aims to achieve a primary surplus, credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Brazil’s outlook from positive to stable, citing worsening debt dynamics, rigid spending structures, and slow progress in expenditure cuts. A lasting fiscal solution is likely to be postponed until after the 2026 elections.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s stock market has reached successive record highs, driven by expectations of falling interest rates. Analysts argue that Brazilian equities remain undervalued, especially compared to US markets, where valuations, particularly in AI-driven tech stocks, appear increasingly stretched.

Why Structural Reform Is Essential

Brazil’s core economic challenge is not merely technical, but political. Sustainable growth requires better coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, a broader set of tools for the Central Bank beyond interest rates, and the restoration of credit as a driver of productive investment rather than financial rent extraction.

Without addressing capital flow volatility, excessive financialization, and the erosion of development institutions, Brazil risks remaining trapped in a cycle of high interest rates, weak investment, and limited long-term growth. The critical question is no longer whether Brazil can endure high interest rates, but how long it can afford their social and economic costs.

Brazil’s R$760 Billion Infrastructure Bet: Can Private Capital Rebuild the Country’s Economic Backbone?

Furthermore, Brazil is rolling out a R$760 billion national infrastructure plan to reverse years of underinvestment and rebuild the foundations of economic growth. With public infrastructure spending far below the 2% of GDP needed just to maintain existing assets, the country is turning to private capital as the main engine of modernization.

The strategy prioritizes transport and logistics, followed by sanitation, energy, and social infrastructure, and relies on incentivized infrastructure debentures to attract domestic and foreign investors. Projects already underway range from highway concessions linking agribusiness regions to ports to large-scale sanitation expansion affecting millions of Brazilians.

The roadmap is ambitious. The challenge now is execution, and whether stable rules and contract certainty can sustain long-term investment.

Corn Ethanol Disrupts Brazil’s Fuel Market as Vibra Ends Copersucar Partnership and Redefines Ethanol Strategy

Brazil’s fuel distribution market is undergoing a structural transformation driven by the rapid expansion of corn ethanol, a shift that has prompted Vibra Energia to terminate its partnership with Copersucar in Evolua Etanol, a joint venture created in 2022.

Evolua Etanol was established as a 50-50 partnership between Copersucar, one of Brazil’s largest sugarcane groups, and Vibra Energia, the country’s leading fuel distributor. The goal was to secure ethanol supply for Vibra’s nationwide network of fuel stations, covering both anhydrous ethanol blended into gasoline and hydrous ethanol sold directly to consumers.

Under the agreement, Vibra was required to purchase all its ethanol exclusively from Evolua, while Copersucar’s associated sugarcane mills were obligated to sell their ethanol production to the joint venture. The model ensured supply stability on one side and guaranteed product offtake on the other.

Corn Ethanol Undermines Sugarcane-Based Model

However, the partnership lost competitiveness as corn ethanol rapidly gained market share in Brazil. Over the past few years, corn ethanol production has expanded sharply, benefiting from lower production costs, greater price stability and increasing geographic reach beyond the Center-West region.

As corn ethanol became more widely available, Vibra found itself constrained by the exclusivity clause, unable to purchase cheaper and more competitive ethanol from producers such as FS and Inpasa, the latter now Brazil’s largest corn ethanol producer. This limitation reduced Vibra’s flexibility in sourcing fuel and weakened the economic rationale of the partnership.

The original expectation was that Evolua would allow Vibra to stockpile ethanol during the sugarcane off-season, between December and March, and sell it at higher prices. In practice, increased corn ethanol supply during the same period kept prices stable, eliminating this advantage.

Strategic Shift to Gain Market Share

With corn ethanol expanding into new regions, including Maranhão, Bahia and Pará, Vibra also faced constraints in supplying the North and Northeast markets. The inability to access these new production hubs ultimately led the company to exit the joint venture.

According to Vibra’s leadership, the decision is not a retreat from ethanol but a strategic move to increase competitiveness. The company aims to consolidate its position as Brazil’s largest ethanol distributor and potentially surpass Raízen, which currently shares market leadership but faces financial challenges and remains heavily dependent on sugarcane ethanol.

By shifting away from exclusive reliance on sugarcane-based supply, Vibra gains greater flexibility to benefit from corn ethanol’s expansion, lower costs and logistical advantages.

Corn Ethanol Drives Structural Change in Brazil

Industry projections indicate that by 2034, corn ethanol production in Brazil could match sugarcane ethanol output, with both reaching approximately 25 billion liters. However, while sugarcane ethanol growth is expected to stagnate, corn ethanol continues to expand rapidly, supported by Brazil’s position as the world’s third-largest corn producer and by strong demand for biofuels.

The rise of corn ethanol is reshaping Brazil’s fuel distribution market, influencing investment strategies, supply chains and competitive dynamics. As production grows and prices face downward pressure, distributors with diversified sourcing strategies are better positioned to gain market share.

Vibra’s exit from Evolua Etanol highlights how the corn ethanol boom is redefining long-standing business models, and signaling a new phase for Brazil’s biofuels industry.

The AI Bubble and Its Risks for Brazil: Rising Pressure on Energy and Water Resources

Trillions Invested in Artificial Intelligence Collide With Weak Returns, Environmental Costs, and Structural Challenges in Emerging Economies

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly exposing a dual global risk: financial instability driven by inflated valuations and mounting environmental pressure caused by the sector’s growing demand for energy and water. While these challenges affect the global economy, their implications are particularly significant for countries like Brazil, where infrastructure expansion, natural resource use, and regulatory transparency are becoming critical issues.

Economists warn that the AI sector is showing classic signs of a speculative bubble. Trillions of dollars have been invested worldwide based on expectations of future profitability that may never materialize. At the same time, the physical infrastructure required to sustain AI, especially large-scale data centers, is generating environmental costs that remain poorly measured and weakly regulated.

Financial Excess Meets Physical Limits

The global AI market has absorbed an extraordinary volume of capital in the last months, yet the sector’s capacity to generate returns consistent with this investment remains highly uncertain. From a basic financial perspective, investments on the scale of $20–30 trillion would require annual profits in the trillions to justify current valuations. Existing revenue models fall far short of that threshold.

Much of the capital circulating in the AI ecosystem moves within a closed loop among a small group of large technology firms, inflating valuations without expanding real economic demand. This concentration heightens systemic risk and increases the likelihood that a future correction will be abrupt rather than gradual.

Data Centers: The Hidden Physical Cost of AI

Behind every AI interaction lies a data center. Those are facilities that process enormous volumes of data and consume vast amounts of electricity. AI-oriented data centers are particularly energy-intensive because they rely on high-performance chips capable of executing complex computations at scale.

In addition to energy use, water has become a critical and often overlooked input. While companies often suggest that a single AI query consumes only a negligible amount of water, independent academic research challenges these claims. Estimates that account for electricity generation and liquid-based cooling systems indicate that dozens of AI interactions can consume hundreds of milliliters of clean water.

Liquid cooling systems, increasingly adopted by AI data centers, rely on potable-quality water to prevent corrosion and bacterial growth. In many cases, up to 80% of this water evaporates during the cooling process, effectively removing it from the local water cycle. This places AI in direct competition with agriculture, human consumption, and sanitation, especially concerning in water-stressed regions.

Lack of Transparency and Environmental Uncertainty

One of the core problems in assessing AI’s environmental impact is the lack of transparency. Technology companies routinely report aggregate water and energy usage in sustainability disclosures but rarely specify how much is attributable to AI training versus daily operation.

As a result, researchers are forced to rely on indirect estimates based on chip production, data center capacity, and assumed efficiency levels. Even conservative models suggest that global AI electricity consumption already rivals that of medium-sized countries and could double within a few years.

Brazil at the Center of Data Center Expansion

Brazil is emerging as a strategic destination for data center investment due to its large market, expanding connectivity, and relative abundance of renewable energy. Today, the country hosts an estimated 160 data centers with a combined installed capacity of roughly 750–800 megawatts.

Official projections indicate that by 2038 this capacity could exceed 17,000 megawatts, more than a twentyfold increase. This level of demand would be comparable to the electricity consumption of a city with over 40 million inhabitants, highlighting the scale of the challenge facing Brazil’s energy system.

Energy, Water, and Local Trade-Offs

Although many Brazilian data centers rely on renewable energy sources such as hydroelectric, wind, and solar power, these solutions are not impact-free. Hydropower depends heavily on water availability, while wind and solar projects have been linked to land-use conflicts, noise pollution, water use for panel cleaning, and social disputes with local communities.

Water use is also a growing concern. While some facilities in Brazil employ closed-loop air cooling systems that consume less water, the expansion of AI-specific infrastructure may increase pressure on local water resources, particularly if liquid cooling becomes more widespread.

Economic Value Versus Environmental Cost

A key unresolved question for Brazil is whether the economic value generated by hosting AI data centers justifies the environmental and infrastructural costs. Unlike countries that concentrate AI model training, Brazil often hosts facilities focused on data storage and service delivery, which may generate fewer high-value jobs relative to resource consumption.

This raises broader policy questions about industrial strategy, energy planning, and environmental governance. Without detailed data, it is difficult for regulators and society to weigh the true costs and benefits of AI-driven infrastructure expansion.

Structural Risks and a Potential Market Reckoning

The environmental pressures created by AI compound existing financial vulnerabilities. As private funding becomes scarcer and profitability remains elusive, the sector increasingly depends on public support. This dynamic creates moral hazard while shifting financial and environmental risks onto society.

History suggests that periods of technological euphoria rarely resolve smoothly. The combination of inflated valuations, weak revenue generation, opaque environmental impacts, and growing dependence on state intervention points to an approaching inflection point for the AI sector.

Brazil’s Strategic Dilemma

For Brazil, the challenge is twofold: managing the immediate environmental and infrastructural impacts of AI expansion while avoiding deeper exposure to a potential global technology-driven financial crisis. Greater transparency, stricter reporting requirements, and integrated energy and water planning will be essential to ensure that the country does not absorb disproportionate risks without corresponding long-term benefits.

As artificial intelligence reshapes the global economy, its sustainability, financial and environmental, will increasingly depend on decisions made not only in technology hubs, but also in emerging economies that host the physical backbone of the digital world.

Brazil’s Biogas and Biomethane Market Accelerates with New Power Plants, Billion-Real Investments and SAF Projects

From Landfill to Low-Carbon Jet Fuel: How Brazil's Biomethane Policy is Redefining the Circular Economy and Global Climate Fight

Brazil is rapidly emerging as a global laboratory for the circular economy and a key player in the fight against climate change, driven by an accelerating market for biogas and biomethane. This energy revolution is not merely a matter of market growth; it is a systemic policy shift that transforms waste management into a high-value, low-carbon energy source, positioning the nation at the forefront of responsible fuel production and decarbonization efforts.

The expansion is marked by significant private investment, new power generation capacity, and pioneering projects in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), reinforcing Brazil’s commitment to a cleaner energy matrix and its global climate pledges.

The Policy Pivot: Biomethane as a Decarbonization Bridge

While Brazil already boasts one of the world's cleanest energy matrices, largely thanks to hydro, wind, and solar power, the challenge of decarbonizing transport and industry remains. Biomethane, a renewable natural gas derived from organic waste, is increasingly viewed as the essential "bridge fuel" for this transition — Brazil's light-duty vehicle fleet, predominantly composed of flex-fuel vehicles (approx. 85%), utilizes ethanol in two main ways: as a mandatory blend in gasoline (E30, with 27-30% ethanol content) and as pure hydrous ethanol, chosen by the driver at the pump. 

Added to all of this, the market is responding with massive scale-up. Gás Verde, a major player, is strategically converting its biogas power plants into biomethane production units. This pivot is ambitious, targeting a quadrupling of output from 160,000 cubic meters per day (m³/d) to 650,000 m³/d over the next three years. This shift reflects a broader trend where biomethane is replacing fossil natural gas in critical sectors, from heavy transport to industrial heat.

This growth is underpinned by robust policy and investment signals. According to the Brazilian Association of Waste and Environment (Abrema), biomethane production is projected to double by the end of 2026, with new plants scheduled through 2029 representing approximately BRL 8.5 billion in committed investments.

Policy Innovation: Recognizing "Bioenergy Recycling"

A critical policy debate is crystallizing the role of biomethane within the national climate strategy. Pedro Maranhão, president of Abrema, highlights the need to formally recognize biomethane production as a form of recycling. This policy recognition is not semantic; it is a powerful mechanism for strengthening Brazil’s waste management strategy and enhancing its circular economy metrics.

Abrema’s concept of "bioenergy recycling" incorporates waste-to-energy processes into official recycling statistics. This has already yielded dramatic results: after including informal waste pickers in national statistics, the recycling rate jumped from 3% to 8%. With the inclusion of energy and fuel generation from waste, the rate has now surpassed 20%. This demonstrates the profound impact of policy-driven resource valorization.

Furthermore, COP30 commitments have spurred concrete action, with Abrema facilitating agreements between municipalities and private companies to expand biomethane-powered fleets and scale up infrastructure investments. The message is clear: the diagnostic phase is over; the time for implementation is now.

SAF Breakthrough: The Circular Economy Takes Flight

The global aviation sector, a hard-to-abate industry, is also looking to Brazil for a sustainable solution. The country’s race to produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has gained a significant contender in Geo bio gas&carbon, which is pioneering a closed-loop system using agricultural residues, specifically vinasse and filter cake from sugarcane, rather than vegetable oils.

This approach is designed to produce a highly competitive SAF with one of the lowest carbon footprints globally. Developed in partnership with Germany’s GIZ, the project involves integrating a new SAF plant with an existing biogas unit in São Paulo. The process is inherently circular: residues are converted into biogas, which is then used to produce SAF. Crucially, the CO₂ utilized in the process is biogenic, ensuring a significantly reduced lifecycle emission profile.

The project, backed by an estimated €7.8 million investment and included in Brazil’s Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), is starting as an industrial-scale pilot with a capacity of 100,000 to 150,000 liters per year.

Global Policy Acceptance: The Corsia Advantage

For SAF to be viable, it must meet stringent international carbon accounting standards. Geo’s sugarcane residue-based route has recently secured approval from Corsia (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation), the global aviation carbon offsetting scheme.

This certification is a major policy victory, placing the fuel in Corsia’s lowest carbon intensity bracket. As Geo’s Technology Director, Allyson de Oliveira, noted, this ensures maximum economic benefits and global market acceptance, potentially making it the most competitive SAF in the world.

Market Consolidation and Public Support

The momentum is further amplified by market consolidation and public sector support. The strategic, cashless share swap between Orizon Waste Valorization and Vital has created Brazil’s largest waste management company, increasing the waste under management to 14.2 million tons per year, nearly 40% of all waste generated in the country. This consolidation significantly boosts the capacity for large-scale investment in biogas, biomethane, and carbon credit projects.

Simultaneously, the GEF Biogas Brazil Project, a collaboration between the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), UNIDO, and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), has provided crucial foundational support. Mobilizing over US$ 270 million in funding and co-financing, the project has trained thousands of professionals and helped shape the public policies that now govern the sector.

As officials highlighted at the project’s closing workshop, biogas is a mature, scalable, and strategic solution for Brazil’s decarbonization goals. Looking ahead, the potential is vast: Paraná’s energy plan suggests that biomethane and biogas could supply up to 38% of the state’s energy matrix by 2050 under favorable conditions, underscoring the profound, long-term impact of today’s policy and investment decisions on the future of responsible energy production.

Eduardo Bolsonaro Has His Mandate Revoked by Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies After Internal Leadership Decision

Brazil's political landscape was roiled this week as the Chamber of Deputies advanced the process to revoke the parliamentary mandate of Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is imprisoned for attempting a coup d’état and for plotting to assassinate president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, vice-president-elect Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The move, which also targets Congressman Alexandre Ramagem (PL-RJ), was executed through an administrative procedure by the House's Board of Directors (Mesa Diretora), sidestepping a full plenary vote and immediately escalating political tensions in Brasília.

The decision to proceed administratively followed the expiration of the deadline for Eduardo Bolsonaro to submit his formal defense. House Speaker Hugo Motta led the effort, contacting members of the Board of Directors, many of whom were outside Brasília, on Thursday afternoon to collect the required signatures. Under internal House rules, at least four of the seven board members must sign the document for the revocation to be finalized. Congressional sources indicate this threshold is expected to be met, despite some internal dissent, including a public refusal to sign by Congressman Altineu Côrtes (PL-RJ).

Shift in Strategy Avoids Plenary Vote

The administrative route marks a significant reversal from earlier signals by Speaker Motta, who had suggested that Ramagem's case would be brought before the full plenary. The change in strategy came after consultations with party leaders, who reportedly argued that recent failed attempts to revoke mandates through plenary votes, such as the high-profile case involving Congresswoman Carla Zambelli — who is imprisoned in Italy —, had damaged the institutional credibility of the Chamber of Deputies. By using the Board of Directors, the House leadership sought a more decisive and immediate outcome.

Hugo Motta had previously said Ramagem’s case would be taken to the plenary, but the move was reversed after the Chamber’s decision to keep Congresswoman Carla Zambelli’s mandate was later annulled by the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Like Zambelli, Ramagem has a final, non-appealable conviction. The STF ordered the loss of his mandate after sentencing him to 16 years in prison for his role in the attempted coup. Ramagem is currently in the United States and is considered a fugitive.

Eduardo Bolsonaro is also in the United States and lost his seat due to excessive absences, missing 63 of 78 sessions this year, more than the one-third limit allowed by Brazil’s Constitution. His cassation does not strip him of political rights, and he is also a defendant in a separate case accusing him of attempting to pressure U.S. authorities to prevent the conviction of his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Ramagem’s defense declined to comment the decision, and Eduardo Bolsonaro said on social media that his mandate was not revoked for corruption, thanking his voters.

Opposition Cries Foul

The process has drawn sharp criticism from allies of the affected lawmakers, who described the decision as "regrettable." A senior party — the leader of the PL, deputy Sóstenes Cavalcante — confirmed that Speaker Motta had initiated discussions with party representatives the previous day about convening the board to analyze the revocations. Critics argue that revoking mandates obtained through popular vote without deliberation by the full plenary represents an undue concentration of power within the House leadership.

Furthermore, opposition voices have accused the Legislative Branch of yielding to pressure from certain justices of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF), framing the episode as another sign of democratic erosion and institutional overreach.

Legal Battle Ahead

The political parties of the affected congressmen have pledged to challenge the decision at every possible legal level. Party leaders are currently consulting their legal teams to assess all possible appeals, arguing that the Chamber’s own internal rules would require similar cases to be analyzed and voted on by the plenary, as occurred in previous proceedings.

They also question whether the alleged grounds for revocation in Eduardo Bolsonaro’s case meet the strict criteria defined by House rules, noting that the extraordinary and ordinary sessions cited in the regulations have not occurred in the required form for years. The party has vowed to fight to preserve the mandates of its lawmakers "to the last instance."

As the required signatures are finalized, the Chamber of Deputies is expected to formally announce the revocation of the mandates of both Eduardo Bolsonaro and Alexandre Ramagem, setting the stage for a new and intense round of legal and political disputes in the coming weeks.

Eduardo Bolsonaro Faces Criticism for Refusing to Resign While Remaining in the U.S.

Many commentators argued that Eduardo Bolsonaro has effectively become a “paid traitor to the nation” after refusing to resign his seat in Congress despite remaining in the United States for four months. 

Living in the United States, Eduardo Bolsonaro was receiving a monthly salary of R$46,300 without working and of using his position to conspire against Brazil from abroad while being funded by Brazilians taxpayers. In fact, Eduardo, fearing being arrest upon returning to Brazil, serve only his personal and family interests rather than Brazil’s national sovereignty.

The Chamber of Deputies it was being heavily criticized that would for allowing Eduardo Bolsonaro to vote remotely from the U.S. or grant him a new 120-day leave. These initiatives show institutional tolerance for behavior that undermines the public interest, leaving Brazilian taxpayers to finance a lawmaker accused of acting against the country’s sovereignty and economic interests. 

Therefore, today's decision is a clear attempt by Hugo Motta to improve the popularity of the Chamber of Deputies of Brazil and to save his weakened presidency of the House.

Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) Bets on HVO and Renewable Diesel to Drive Brazil’s Energy Transition

Brazil’s state-controlled oil giant expands investments in green fuels, positioning HVO as a key pillar of its long-term decarbonization strategy

The global energy transition has become a central concern for governments and corporations worldwide, and Brazil is increasingly positioning itself as a relevant player in the low-carbon fuels market. At the heart of this strategy is Petrobras, which has stepped up investments in renewable diesel and Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) as part of its broader plan to reduce emissions while maintaining compatibility with the country’s existing vehicle fleet.

Petrobras’ flagship initiative in this segment is Diesel R, a renewable diesel produced through the coprocessing of fossil diesel with vegetable oils, primarily soybean oil, widely used as cooking oil in Brazil. This new technique, called biorefining, uses advanced hydrotreating technology. The result is a fuel chemically indistinguishable from conventional S10 diesel, requiring no engine modifications and delivering significant emissions reductions.

Diesel R: Petrobras’ Drop-In Renewable Fuel That Cuts Carbon Emissions Without Engine Modifications

Diesel R, a renewable diesel developed by Petrobras, represents a practical step forward in Brazil’s energy transition. The main message is that the fuel significantly reduces carbon emissions compared to conventional fossil diesel, while still being fully compatible with existing diesel engines, meaning no mechanical adaptations are required.

Diesel R is produced by combining traditional mineral diesel with renewable vegetable oils, which undergo a refining process that removes impurities and results in a fuel that is chemically very similar to fossil diesel. Because of this similarity, drivers and fleet operators can use it in trucks and other vehicles exactly as they do today.

With Diesel R, the carbon released during combustion was previously absorbed by plants through photosynthesis, which helps lower net greenhouse gas emissions. This makes Diesel R an effective way to reduce emissions immediately, without waiting for large-scale changes in vehicle technology or infrastructure.

Overall, Diesel R is a low-carbon, drop-in solution that allows Brazil to cut emissions in the transport sector while leveraging its existing fleet and strong biofuel supply chain, reinforcing Petrobras’ role in advancing more sustainable fuels.

HVO-Compatible Fuel Without Changes to Vehicles

At Petrobras’ Cubatão refinery, renewable feedstock is blended with mineral diesel and processed in hydrotreatment units, where hydrogen removes impurities such as sulfur and oxygen. This process produces a paraffinic fuel virtually identical to fossil diesel in performance and stability.

According to Petrobras, the key advantage lies in reducing fossil fuel content without altering Brazil’s current vehicle fleet, enabling immediate decarbonization gains. The company reports that the renewable portion of Diesel R can cut lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by up to 87% compared to traditional diesel.

Petrobras technicians explain that almost Ten percent of this fuel comes directly from vegetable oil, because the carbon released during combustion was previously absorbed by plants through photosynthesis. Therefore, the fuel operates in a near-closed carbon cycle.

Diesel R Is Not Biodiesel

Despite sharing a renewable origin, Diesel R and HVO differ fundamentally from conventional biodiesel (FAME). While biodiesel is produced through transesterification, HVO and renewable diesel undergo hydrotreatment, resulting in a cleaner, more stable fuel with superior oxidation resistance and cold-flow performance.

This chemical similarity to fossil diesel makes HVO particularly attractive to automakers and heavy transport operators. Global manufacturers such as Volvo, Scania, MAN and Mercedes-Benz already approve the use of HVO 100, reinforcing its role as a drop-in solution for decarbonizing logistics and industry.

Corporate Demand and Voluntary Climate Targets

Petrobras’ initial commercial focus is on large corporate consumers seeking to reduce their carbon footprint and meet voluntary ESG commitments. Early adopters report that the additional cost of renewable diesel is modest compared to the environmental benefits.

One industrial client estimates emissions reductions of around 400 tons of CO₂ per year, calling the cost-benefit ratio “fully satisfactory.”

Scaling Up: From 10% Renewable Content to 100% Biofuels

Currently, Petrobras produces renewable diesel with up to 10% renewable content, with plans to reach 20% in the coming years. Looking further ahead, the company is preparing for a future in which fuels could be 100% renewable from 2030 onward.

Central to this vision is Petrobras’ investment in Brazil’s first fully renewable biorefinery, located in Rio Grande do Sul. The project involves converting the Refinaria Riograndense (RPR) into a facility capable of processing 100% renewable feedstock by 2028. The biorefinery is expected to produce HVO (green diesel), sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), green naphtha and other bioproducts, strengthening Brazil’s bioeconomy.

“This project is already underway and represents a strategic priority for Petrobras over the next decade,” the company states.

Brazil’s Biofuel Advantage and Market Outlook

Brazil has a long-standing tradition in biofuels, supported by public policies such as RenovaBio, which allows renewable diesel producers to generate and trade CBIO carbon credits. Each CBIO corresponds to one ton of avoided CO₂ emissions, traded on Brazil’s B3 stock exchange.

According to studies by the Energy Research Office (EPE), renewable diesel, particularly HVO, is already one of the fastest-growing biofuels globally. Between 2011 and 2018, HVO production expanded at an annual rate of over 37%, far outpacing traditional biodiesel growth in Europe.

Once produced at scale, Brazilian HVO has strong potential to compete in international markets, especially as regulations tighten emissions standards in Europe and other regions.

Challenges Remain, but Direction Is Clear

Despite its advantages, HVO production requires complex refinery infrastructure, high-pressure hydrogenation units and significant hydrogen supply, still largely derived from natural gas. The availability and cost of sustainable feedstocks also remain key challenges.

Even so, Petrobras sees renewable diesel and HVO as essential to staying relevant in a decarbonizing global energy market.

By investing simultaneously in oil exploration and next-generation fuels, Petrobras aims to balance energy security with climate commitments, driving Brazil toward a greener, more competitive and more resilient energy future.

Santa Catarina Concludes Biogas Pilot Project, Paving the Way for Swine Manure-to-Energy Replication in Brazil

State initiative confirms technical, economic and environmental viability of biogas and biomethane, paving the way for large-scale replication in the swine industry

FLORIANÓPOLIS, SANTA CATARINA — Santa Catarina, one of the world’s most important swine-producing regions in Brazil, has reached a major milestone in its clean-energy transition. The state officially concluded the presentation phase of its pioneering Biogas Pilot Project, confirming the feasibility of transforming swine manure into renewable energy and setting the stage for replication across the country.

The initiative, developed over two years by the Federation of Industries of the State of Santa Catarina (FIESC) through its Decarbonization Hub, in partnership with the SENAI Institute of Technology, CIBiogás, BRDE, Sicoob, Sindicarne and ACAV, evaluated the potential of converting pig waste into electricity, thermal energy and biomethane. The program analyzed 50 farms linked to major agro-industrial companies Aurora Coop, Master and Seara.

Pilot Confirms Strong Emission Reductions and Large-Scale Potential

The study reaffirms the technical, economic and environmental viability of biodigesters as a strategic tool for agricultural decarbonization. The results reveal direct emission reductions exceeding 20% in nursery units and strong performance in finishing farms and production units.

“These numbers confirm the strategic role of biogas in advancing decarbonization,” says Charles Leber, leader of the FIESC Decarbonization Hub.

Santa Catarina’s swine sector underscores the importance of the findings. The state accounts for 8% of global pork exports and holds 33% of Brazil’s national herd, representing over R$10 billion (US$1.8 billion) in economic activity and supporting more than 480,000 direct and indirect jobs. The expansion of biogas solutions is viewed as an economic catalyst for rural competitiveness, regional industry and sustainable development.

A Foundation for Replication Across All Swine Farms

According to FIESC, the pilot is just the beginning. The project generated a comprehensive database, mapping participating properties and producing a detailed profile of Santa Catarina’s swine industry, information that now guides future policy and scaling decisions.

Now the project show where the bottlenecks and advances are, and it doesn’t end here. Armed with data and real experience, the project can make decisions with far greater security, according to Charles Leber, a specialist from the SENAI Institute of Environmental Technology.

The long-term goal is to replicate the use of biodigesters, biogas and biomethane across all swine farms in the state. BRDE, a key financial partner, reinforced that the initiative aligns with its institutional focus on decarbonization and greenhouse gas mitigation.

Santa Catarina Well-Positioned for Biogas Expansion

The findings confirm that the state’s productive density, territorial structure and strong agro-industrial sector make it one of Brazil’s most promising regions for biogas growth. The West and Mid-West regions are especially suited for large-scale deployment.

Biodigesters already in operation demonstrate clear benefits, emission reductions, improved waste management, lower energy costs and enhanced sustainability. With industry support from Sindicarne and ACAV, and financial backing from BRDE and Sicoob, the project is expected to gain momentum as it enters its next phase.

A Scalable Model for Brazil’s Energy Transition

By proving that swine manure can be converted into clean, economically viable energy, Santa Catarina’s pilot positions the state as a national reference for rural decarbonization. The data-driven approach provides a secure foundation for expanding biogas infrastructure and enabling a new, sustainable energy frontier for Brazilian agribusiness.