Petrobras (PETR3, PETR4) has always been one of the most widely followed companies in Brazil, not only because of its size and influence in the energy sector but also for its dividend payments in recent years. Now moving through 2025 with the same question: How much will Petrobras pay out in dividends this year and what can be expected in 2026?
Dividend Outlook For 2025
Through the first half of 2025, Petrobras declared six dividend distributions in respect of first and second-quarter results, of approximately R$1.58 per share. Market expectations place the company at R$3.40-odd per share for the full year, manifesting a dividend yield of nearly 9.8%. That leaves around R$1.46 per share to be paid in the second half, with roughly R$0.73 each payable in the third and fourth quarter.
These expectations are based on the current business plan of Petrobras, wherein Brent oil is assumed to be at US$83 per barrel, whereas the average for 2025 has been closer to US$70. A movement of US$5 in Brent prices can lower or increase dividend yields by approximately 1.3 percentage points, putting oil price volatility at the very center of shareholder returns.
BTG Pactual’s Positive View
According to analysts at BTG Pactual, Petrobras benefits from a “positive asymmetry”: higher-than-expected production combined with lower capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operational expenditures (OPEX). This combination could result in higher cash generation and potentially larger dividends than currently priced in by the market.
BTG also set a buy recommendation for Petrobras, with a price target of R$44, suggesting a significant upside from current levels.
Dividend Projections for 2026
Looking ahead, Petrobras’ 2026 dividend will largely depend on oil prices and government strategy.
In a conservative scenario with Brent below US$70, dividends may drop to around R$1.50 per share (4–7% yield).
In an optimistic scenario with Brent above US$70, dividends could reach R$3.00–R$4.00 per share (10–15% yield).
Given the electoral cycle, some analysts believe the government may push Petrobras to distribute higher dividends in 2026, using the company as a cash source to fund fiscal needs.
However, markets were shaken last week by rumours that Petrobras had to cut back US$8 billion on investments in the 2026-2030 Strategic Plan.
Nevertheless, for long-term investors, Petrobras offers a unique combination of high dividend yield and discounted valuation, but with higher-than-average risks. Oil price volatility, CAPEX and OPEX control, and political uncertainty will continue to shape Petrobras’ performance in 2025 and 2026.
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