Brazil sold 10 million 60kg bags of coffee in the first quarter of 2019. The United States and Germany are the largest importers of Brazilian coffee. In the first quarter of 2019, the US imported 18.2% of the 10 million 60kg bags of coffee exported by Brazil in the first quarter of 2019. Germany was responsible for the purchase of 17.2% of the total of 10 million 60kg bags.
Italy, Japan, Belgium, Turkey, UK, Russia, and France are other major buyers of Brazilian coffee. However, China was where Brazilian coffee exports grew the most. The advance of coffee drinking in place of tea, especially among the younger population, is making China the newest promising market for Brazilian grain exports. In 2018, sales of green coffee from Brazil to China more than doubled.
This is a problem now because Jair Bolsonaro talked tough on China during his presidential campaign. For him, China, the largest trading partner of Brazil, acts as a predator, not a partner. This could greatly undermine the growth in commodity sales such as coffee, soybeans and iron ore to the Chinese. If the current government does not create a climate of commercial war with China, which would be very damaging to the Brazilian economy, coffee exports should continue to grow.
Brazilian coffee exports grew by 15% in 2018. Many experts believe that Brazilian coffee exports should continue to grow in 2019.
Tuesday, 23 April 2019
Income inequality rises in Brazil
Brazilian racial democracy is a myth when the issue is the economic development of its citizens. A study by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) indicated that gains in skin color have grown over the past five years. In 2012, whites received an average of R$ 726.93 more than blacks. In 2017, the difference increased to R$ 767.84.
In 2017, whites had an average income of R $ 1,780.60, while blacks had an average monthly income of R $ 1,012.76. So much lower than the white population.
Another very serious problem pointed out by the research are the wage differences between men and women. Although this disparity has reduced in recent years, Brazilian women, despite being more educated than men, have lower income. Brazilian women’s average income in 2012 was USD $250/month while Brazilian men’s was USD $461/month (Ipea, 2017).
Brazil increasingly needs entrepreneurial policies focused on diversity, since public policies have been derisory near the social problem that exists. However, the current government was elected with a platform aimed at ending what President Jair Bolsonaro calls "gender ideology" in Brazilian schools.
However, educational scholars argue that the educational approach to gender identity in schools can contribute to combating problems such as teenage pregnancy, violence against women, homophobia and gender inequalities.
In 2017, whites had an average income of R $ 1,780.60, while blacks had an average monthly income of R $ 1,012.76. So much lower than the white population.
Another very serious problem pointed out by the research are the wage differences between men and women. Although this disparity has reduced in recent years, Brazilian women, despite being more educated than men, have lower income. Brazilian women’s average income in 2012 was USD $250/month while Brazilian men’s was USD $461/month (Ipea, 2017).
Brazil increasingly needs entrepreneurial policies focused on diversity, since public policies have been derisory near the social problem that exists. However, the current government was elected with a platform aimed at ending what President Jair Bolsonaro calls "gender ideology" in Brazilian schools.
However, educational scholars argue that the educational approach to gender identity in schools can contribute to combating problems such as teenage pregnancy, violence against women, homophobia and gender inequalities.
Monday, 22 April 2019
Brazil walks to another lost year
The uncertainties and increasing risks related to Jair Bolsonaro's government's ability to send reforms to the National Congress and to implement its economic policy undermine confidence and undermine investments in Brazil.
The very weak picture of the Brazilian labor market indicates that companies have no intention of producing more or investing. The high levels of unemployment and the low quality of jobs offered reflect an almost stagnant environment. This hinders the acceleration of consumption, which will lead the country to another year of growth of around 1%.
According to the World Bank, 14 million Brazilians are at risk of returning to poverty. One of the main problems is that the Brazilian labor market is not absorbing the young. These unemployed young people are not served by any social program and also do not have access to unemployment insurance, as most are looking for their first job.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian government has been held hostage by the Pension Reform, so far its only subject and only measure in the macroeconomic area. Moreover, the government's actions are aimed at small microeconomic changes, which are not enough to change the almost stagnant picture of the Brazilian economy.
The very weak picture of the Brazilian labor market indicates that companies have no intention of producing more or investing. The high levels of unemployment and the low quality of jobs offered reflect an almost stagnant environment. This hinders the acceleration of consumption, which will lead the country to another year of growth of around 1%.
According to the World Bank, 14 million Brazilians are at risk of returning to poverty. One of the main problems is that the Brazilian labor market is not absorbing the young. These unemployed young people are not served by any social program and also do not have access to unemployment insurance, as most are looking for their first job.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian government has been held hostage by the Pension Reform, so far its only subject and only measure in the macroeconomic area. Moreover, the government's actions are aimed at small microeconomic changes, which are not enough to change the almost stagnant picture of the Brazilian economy.
Saturday, 20 April 2019
Brazil loses placement of seventh largest economy on the planet to Indonesia
Brazil is no longer the world's 7th largest economy. According to the IMF, the Brazilian share of world goods and services production, which was 4.4% in 1980, reached 2.5% last year, the lowest rate ever since. The data refer to the share of global GDP in purchasing-adjusted dollars, which reflects differences in the cost of living between countries. As a result, in 2018, Brazil lost the position of the seventh largest economy in the world, which it had held since 2005, to Indonesia. The difference is that Indonesia's GDP has grown above 5% a year since the Asian crisis of 1998.
The figures indicate that Brazil's relevance to the global economy declines considerably after six years of the economic crisis that began under Dilma Rousseff's government, passed by Michel Temer's government and is now under the administration of Jair Bolsonaro. The Brazilian economy is practically stagnant compared to growth of 1.2% in the last two years and the growth forecasts for 2019 are getting smaller. It is undeniable that the last three governments, the last Brazilian governments (Dilma, Temer, and Bolsonaro), have committed many misconceptions when directing the country's macroeconomic policies.
According to Laura Carvalho, an economist, and professor at University of São Paulo (USP), Brazilian governments should collect more taxes from the rich and make investments in innovation and services go hand in hand. For her, the recessive adjustments proposed by the current government will continue amid the scrapping of physical and social infrastructure.
For the economist, Nelson Marconi, of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), the fiscal adjustment is the big issue of the Brazilian economy. According to him, the proposed Pension Reform of the government of Jair Bolsonaro will worsen the living conditions of those who need it the most because it does not fight the privileges and reaches mainly low-income workers.
The figures indicate that Brazil's relevance to the global economy declines considerably after six years of the economic crisis that began under Dilma Rousseff's government, passed by Michel Temer's government and is now under the administration of Jair Bolsonaro. The Brazilian economy is practically stagnant compared to growth of 1.2% in the last two years and the growth forecasts for 2019 are getting smaller. It is undeniable that the last three governments, the last Brazilian governments (Dilma, Temer, and Bolsonaro), have committed many misconceptions when directing the country's macroeconomic policies.
According to Laura Carvalho, an economist, and professor at University of São Paulo (USP), Brazilian governments should collect more taxes from the rich and make investments in innovation and services go hand in hand. For her, the recessive adjustments proposed by the current government will continue amid the scrapping of physical and social infrastructure.
For the economist, Nelson Marconi, of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), the fiscal adjustment is the big issue of the Brazilian economy. According to him, the proposed Pension Reform of the government of Jair Bolsonaro will worsen the living conditions of those who need it the most because it does not fight the privileges and reaches mainly low-income workers.
Friday, 19 April 2019
Toyota announces first hybrid flex-fuel car production in Brazil
The new hybrid and Flex-powered Corolla will be produced at Toyota's factory in Indaiatuba, in the interior of the state of São Paulo, Brazil.
The model will be the first hybrid and flex-fuel car on the planet. According to the Japanese automaker, the new car will be "the cleanest hybrid in the world" because it will be able to run on ethanol. However, the company has not yet disclosed what the emission levels of the car will be when it is running on ethanol.
According to Toyota do Brasil, the flex hybrid, when fueled with ethanol, will have one of the highest potential CO2 emission reductions.
The new sedan will be bigger than the current one. It will have 2.70 meters of inter-axle distance, 4.64 meters long, 1.78 meters wide and 1.43 meters high.
The model will be the first hybrid and flex-fuel car on the planet. According to the Japanese automaker, the new car will be "the cleanest hybrid in the world" because it will be able to run on ethanol. However, the company has not yet disclosed what the emission levels of the car will be when it is running on ethanol.
According to Toyota do Brasil, the flex hybrid, when fueled with ethanol, will have one of the highest potential CO2 emission reductions.
The new sedan will be bigger than the current one. It will have 2.70 meters of inter-axle distance, 4.64 meters long, 1.78 meters wide and 1.43 meters high.
Thursday, 18 April 2019
Investors fear lack of political articulation of the Bolsonaro government
Jair Bolsonaro was never a liberal. During the more than two decades in which he has been a federal deputy in Brazil, his political performance has always been close to interventionist policies.
There is an evident difficulty of the president in defending the liberal agenda of the minister Paulo Guedes. To make matters worse, it is also very evident that the current president does not believe much of this agenda. For this reason, Bolsonaro defends little or almost nothing the agenda of its own government.
The CCJ stage in the Pension Reform, which was seen as something easy, ended up becoming very difficult for a disjointed government.
This has helped to worsen many of the country's growth projections. The government's ability to implement the reforms advocated during the campaign produced dismay among Brazilian and foreign investors.
The deterioration of the Brazilian economy will make even more difficult the life of a government that until now has been completely disarticulated in the political plane.
This picture produced a lot of reluctance from foreign investors to bet on Brazil, especially after it became clear the Brazilian government will not be able to produce the liberal shock that the market expected. As a result, Brazil will be experiencing continued volatility in the coming days.
There is an evident difficulty of the president in defending the liberal agenda of the minister Paulo Guedes. To make matters worse, it is also very evident that the current president does not believe much of this agenda. For this reason, Bolsonaro defends little or almost nothing the agenda of its own government.
The CCJ stage in the Pension Reform, which was seen as something easy, ended up becoming very difficult for a disjointed government.
This has helped to worsen many of the country's growth projections. The government's ability to implement the reforms advocated during the campaign produced dismay among Brazilian and foreign investors.
The deterioration of the Brazilian economy will make even more difficult the life of a government that until now has been completely disarticulated in the political plane.
This picture produced a lot of reluctance from foreign investors to bet on Brazil, especially after it became clear the Brazilian government will not be able to produce the liberal shock that the market expected. As a result, Brazil will be experiencing continued volatility in the coming days.
Wednesday, 17 April 2019
Brazilian Congress does not advance in Pension Reform and Financial Market reacts badly
The Social Security reform ended up in the CCJ (Commission of Constitution and Justice) of the Chamber of Deputies. The draftsman of the text of the Pension Reform, Deputy Marcelo Freitas, did not appear in the session.
CCJ president Felipe Francischini, also from the party of the government of Jair Bolsonaro, the PSL, said that Freitas was at a meeting on the text of the Pension Reform, so he had failed. Nevertheless, Freitas had confirmed his presence in the session and, therefore, did not need to have a physical presence. Opposition MPs did not accept Francischini's response and went to the presiding board to pressure him. The session then became a big bustle and ended up being closed.
Freitas, who is from the government party, simply did not appear in Congress. This led to voting in the CCJ for after Easter.
That made the Ibovespa index, the main stock index of the country, to fall at the end of the day. Ibovespa fell 2% after a Social Security vote was postponed at CCJ. The dollar rose 1% and surpassed the R$ 3.94.
CCJ president Felipe Francischini, also from the party of the government of Jair Bolsonaro, the PSL, said that Freitas was at a meeting on the text of the Pension Reform, so he had failed. Nevertheless, Freitas had confirmed his presence in the session and, therefore, did not need to have a physical presence. Opposition MPs did not accept Francischini's response and went to the presiding board to pressure him. The session then became a big bustle and ended up being closed.
Freitas, who is from the government party, simply did not appear in Congress. This led to voting in the CCJ for after Easter.
That made the Ibovespa index, the main stock index of the country, to fall at the end of the day. Ibovespa fell 2% after a Social Security vote was postponed at CCJ. The dollar rose 1% and surpassed the R$ 3.94.
The minimum wage in Brazil will not increase above inflation in 2020, which has not happened for 15 years
According to the draft budget presented by the government of Jair Bolsonaro for the year 2020, the minimum wage should be R$ 1,040, only with the replacement of inflation. The project also does not predict real increase for servers, only the military will have increased above inflation.
If approved, the adjustment begins in January 2020, with payment starting in February 2020.
Thus, Bolsonaro interrupts a public policy of real increase of the minimum wage that it has begun 15 years ago, and that aimed at reducing the social inequalities of the country.
Brazil is one of the most unequal countries on the planet. Almost 30% of Brazil's income is in the hands of only 1% of the country's inhabitants.
According to Oxfam, 86% of Brazilians believe that the country's backwardness is related to the gigantic economic inequality between rich and poor.
If approved, the adjustment begins in January 2020, with payment starting in February 2020.
Thus, Bolsonaro interrupts a public policy of real increase of the minimum wage that it has begun 15 years ago, and that aimed at reducing the social inequalities of the country.
Brazil is one of the most unequal countries on the planet. Almost 30% of Brazil's income is in the hands of only 1% of the country's inhabitants.
According to Oxfam, 86% of Brazilians believe that the country's backwardness is related to the gigantic economic inequality between rich and poor.
Former Peruvian President Alan Garcia dies after shooting himself before receiving an arrest warrant linked to the Odebrecht case
Alan García was accused of receiving bribes in a case involving the corruption plot of the Brazilian construction company Odebrech. The Peruvian politician shot himself in the head the knowledge that he would be arrested preliminarily by the justice of his country.
In February 2019, the Brazilian company told the US Justice Department that it would have spent US$ 29 million on corruption in the country.
Garcia had unsuccessfully tried to seek asylum from Uruguay on November 2019. However, the Uruguayan president Tabaré Vázquez refused to accept it.
In February 2019, the Brazilian company told the US Justice Department that it would have spent US$ 29 million on corruption in the country.
Garcia had unsuccessfully tried to seek asylum from Uruguay on November 2019. However, the Uruguayan president Tabaré Vázquez refused to accept it.
Most Brazilians are against the Pension Reform proposed by Bolsonaro's government
A survey conducted by the Datafolha Institute indicates that 51% of Brazilians are against pension reform proposed by the government of Jair Bolsonaro. The survey was conducted by Datafolha between April 2 and 3.
For most Brazilian economists, the Pension Reform is urgent and must be done. However, the population fears that the poorer classes will again be the most disadvantaged. The population knows that the Pension and Social Security systems yield deficits are caused by the enormous privileges of politicians, some public servants (judges, prosecutors, and procurators) and the military, who receive very high pensions by Brazilian standards.
President Jair Bolsonaro, for example, started receiving, at the age of 33, retirement as retired captain of the Brazilian Army. Bolsonaro, who is now 64 years old, has been receiving the retirement of Exércio for more than 30 years (according to data from the Brazilian Army, the salary of captain in 2018 was R $ 8,517.00). In January 2019, Bolsonaro became eligible to retire also by the former Congressional Pensioners Institute (IPC), being able to receive from the Chamber a further R$ 29,301.45 per month. Meanwhile, an urban worker from the private sector (who retires by the age criterion: 65 for men and 60 for women) receives monthly R$ 1,129.31, which corresponds to about 290 dollars. In Brazil, the average retirement of a federal deputy is 23 times higher than that of ordinary workers.
There are even more absurd cases like those of military daughters who receive pensions practically throughout their entire lives. Only these cases cost Brazilian public coffers about R$ 5 billion per year. Most of these 110,000 women are fit to work. Some work in private companies and thus have two sources of income. However, the military daughters enjoy a lifetime pension inherited from their father, even though they have a job. Many of them marry but do not officialize the marriage so as not to lose the pension. These "single" women receive on an average monthly payment of about 6,000 reais in a country where two-thirds of the Brazilian workers retire with six times less.
Since 2000 it is no longer possible for the military to bequeath the benefit to their unmarried daughters. Even with this extinct benefit, however, Brazil will continue to disburse around 5 billion reais per year until 2060 for the daughters of the military who already receive this pension.
Therefore, besides being an economically unsustainable social security system, generating innumerable and grotesque inequalities, there is enormous difficulty and even lack of will to combat these inequalities. Mainly because the political class, responsible for Pension Reform, is one of the most benefited by the current framework. As a result, it becomes very difficult to believe that politicians will produce reform that promotes social justice and reduces current disparities.
For most Brazilian economists, the Pension Reform is urgent and must be done. However, the population fears that the poorer classes will again be the most disadvantaged. The population knows that the Pension and Social Security systems yield deficits are caused by the enormous privileges of politicians, some public servants (judges, prosecutors, and procurators) and the military, who receive very high pensions by Brazilian standards.
President Jair Bolsonaro, for example, started receiving, at the age of 33, retirement as retired captain of the Brazilian Army. Bolsonaro, who is now 64 years old, has been receiving the retirement of Exércio for more than 30 years (according to data from the Brazilian Army, the salary of captain in 2018 was R $ 8,517.00). In January 2019, Bolsonaro became eligible to retire also by the former Congressional Pensioners Institute (IPC), being able to receive from the Chamber a further R$ 29,301.45 per month. Meanwhile, an urban worker from the private sector (who retires by the age criterion: 65 for men and 60 for women) receives monthly R$ 1,129.31, which corresponds to about 290 dollars. In Brazil, the average retirement of a federal deputy is 23 times higher than that of ordinary workers.
There are even more absurd cases like those of military daughters who receive pensions practically throughout their entire lives. Only these cases cost Brazilian public coffers about R$ 5 billion per year. Most of these 110,000 women are fit to work. Some work in private companies and thus have two sources of income. However, the military daughters enjoy a lifetime pension inherited from their father, even though they have a job. Many of them marry but do not officialize the marriage so as not to lose the pension. These "single" women receive on an average monthly payment of about 6,000 reais in a country where two-thirds of the Brazilian workers retire with six times less.
Since 2000 it is no longer possible for the military to bequeath the benefit to their unmarried daughters. Even with this extinct benefit, however, Brazil will continue to disburse around 5 billion reais per year until 2060 for the daughters of the military who already receive this pension.
Therefore, besides being an economically unsustainable social security system, generating innumerable and grotesque inequalities, there is enormous difficulty and even lack of will to combat these inequalities. Mainly because the political class, responsible for Pension Reform, is one of the most benefited by the current framework. As a result, it becomes very difficult to believe that politicians will produce reform that promotes social justice and reduces current disparities.
Tuesday, 16 April 2019
Brazilian GDP may have negative results in the first quarter of 2019
Several Brazilian banks reduced their forecasts for the Brazilian GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019. In recent days, Itaú has reduced its expectation of 2% growth of Brazilian GDP in 2019 to 1.3%. Safra bank lowered its forecast from 2% to 1.5%. Bradesco, which projected a growth of 2.4% in GDP growth in Brazil in 2019, changed its expectation to 1.9%.
The worst projection was due to Banco Fator, which had forecast a growth of 1.7% of the Brazilian GDP in 2019. Now, Banco Fator understands that Brazilian GDP growth should be at 1.3% in 2019. The Factor also pointed out that the first quarter of 2019 should be marked by a decrease of 0.7% in GDP.
Because of these reductions, there is, therefore, a large decrease in bets favorable in relation to Brazil between domestic and foreign investors.
The current uncertainties in the political scenario and the reform agenda certainly greatly delay economic growth because it greatly reduces growth expectations for the Brazilian economy. However, this is the third consecutive year in which market expectations are reduced considerably. This points to a recurring error in the analyses made by economists in relation to the Brazilian political structure.
The financial market players erred in analyzing the Temer government and now erred again in expecting Jair Bolsonaro's presidency a minimally organized government. So far, what has been seen was a lot of confusion, unpreparedness and a tendency to give up the liberal agenda against any pressure, as occurred in the case of Petrobras.
According to Reuters, "although Bolsonaro vowed orthodox economic policies in his far-right presidential campaign last year, his first 100 days in office have raised concerns that more populist factions in his government may have an upper hand over free-market voices".
This shows a huge gap between market analysis and expectations and the real capacity for reform and to carry out economic policies that Brazilian politicians have.
The worst projection was due to Banco Fator, which had forecast a growth of 1.7% of the Brazilian GDP in 2019. Now, Banco Fator understands that Brazilian GDP growth should be at 1.3% in 2019. The Factor also pointed out that the first quarter of 2019 should be marked by a decrease of 0.7% in GDP.
Because of these reductions, there is, therefore, a large decrease in bets favorable in relation to Brazil between domestic and foreign investors.
The current uncertainties in the political scenario and the reform agenda certainly greatly delay economic growth because it greatly reduces growth expectations for the Brazilian economy. However, this is the third consecutive year in which market expectations are reduced considerably. This points to a recurring error in the analyses made by economists in relation to the Brazilian political structure.
The financial market players erred in analyzing the Temer government and now erred again in expecting Jair Bolsonaro's presidency a minimally organized government. So far, what has been seen was a lot of confusion, unpreparedness and a tendency to give up the liberal agenda against any pressure, as occurred in the case of Petrobras.
According to Reuters, "although Bolsonaro vowed orthodox economic policies in his far-right presidential campaign last year, his first 100 days in office have raised concerns that more populist factions in his government may have an upper hand over free-market voices".
This shows a huge gap between market analysis and expectations and the real capacity for reform and to carry out economic policies that Brazilian politicians have.
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