Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is set to authorize an increase in the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline from 30% to 32%, a move aimed at curbing fuel imports and enhancing national energy security amid global oil market volatility driven by the conflict between Iran and the United States.
The proposal, which could be signed as early as this week during an extraordinary meeting of the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE), is expected to eliminate Brazil’s reliance on imported gasoline. Despite being a major oil producer, Brazil currently imports between 10% and 15% of its gasoline due to domestic refining bottlenecks.
Boosting Demand and Local Production
The shift to a 32% anhydrous ethanol blend (E32) is projected to increase annual demand for the biofuel by approximately 1 billion liters, according to UNICA, the industry association representing sugarcane and ethanol producers.
Industry leaders expressed optimism, noting that Brazil is heading toward a record harvest. National supply agency Conab recently revised its production estimates upward, forecasting a 5.3% increase in the current harvest that began in April.
"We have total capacity to meet this demand," said a representative from the sugarcane industry. "In addition to consumer and environmental benefits, Brazilian ethanol generates jobs and income in both rural and urban areas."
Technical Readiness vs. Consumer Concerns
Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira stated that technical tests have already confirmed the safety and viability of the E32 blend for vehicle engines. However, the move has faced some pushback from automotive sectors.
While the government maintains that engines are ready, some critics and industry groups, including the motorcycle manufacturers' association Abraciclo, have raised concerns. Reports suggest that higher ethanol concentrations could lead to ignition issues in colder temperatures and potential long-term compatibility problems that have not been fully vetted.
Market Adjustment and Increased Demand
The blend expansion is also expected to have a direct impact on anhydrous ethanol consumption. According to Martinho Seiiti Ono, CEO of SCA Brasil Etanol, E32 could increase biofuel demand by about 850 million liters per year. This surge in demand comes as production is estimated to grow by over 4 billion liters this harvest, including both sugarcane and corn ethanol. In this context, the higher blend serves as a mechanism to absorb surplus supply, ensuring market equilibrium.
The measure is also expected to reduce price volatility throughout the cycle and improve conditions for consumers, while providing greater predictability for ethanol contract renewals for the 2026/27 harvest. Furthermore, it is anticipated to boost the competitiveness of hydrous ethanol by altering the traditional 70% price parity threshold.
Beyond economic impacts, E32 reinforces Brazil's position in the global decarbonization agenda. The measure aligns with the "Fuel of the Future" program, which envisions a gradual increase in the blend up to 35% and paves the way for new frontiers, such as Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and renewable bunker fuel.
Global Market Impact
The announcement has already reverberated through international commodity markets. As Brazilian mills pivot to produce more anhydrous ethanol to meet the new mandate, global sugar prices have seen a slight recovery. Analysts suggest that Brazil’s sugar production could drop to 37 million tonnes — down from previous estimates of 40 million — as more sugarcane is diverted to biofuel production.
The policy is part of a broader "Fuel of the Future" strategy, which also envisions increasing the biodiesel blend in diesel to 16% this year, with a target of 20% by 2030, pending further technical testing.
