Showing posts with label curtailment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label curtailment. Show all posts

Tuesday, 12 May 2026

Why Brazil’s Wind Power Is Now Cheaper Than Hydroelectric Energy

Brazil is rapidly emerging as a global leader in renewable energy, with wind power generation standing out as one of the cheapest and cleanest sources available. In the heart of the Bahia state, in the northeast of Brazil, several changes, including in the landscape and in the lives of farmers, exemplifies this transformation, boasting dozens of towering wind turbines that mark its status as one of Brazil's top wind energy producers.

The small town of Sento Sé (40,000 inhabitants) in Bahia holds the second-highest installed wind power capacity in Brazil, nearly 1500 MW. At full capacity, this could power approximately 3 million people simultaneously. The landscape, dotted with aerogenerators across numerous wind farms, is a testament to Brazil's ongoing energy transition.

The Ascendance of Wind Energy

Brazil currently hosts over 15 wind farms across 14 states, predominantly in the Northeast. These colossal structures, with tower bases up to 7 meters in diameter, 100-meter-high towers, and 42-meter propeller blades, are not just engineering marvels but also significant economic drivers for local communities. Landowners receive payments based on the energy produced on their land, supplementing their traditional livelihoods. 

Wind energy generation, the inverse of a fan's operation, harnesses wind as an input to produce electricity as an output. This output translates directly into income for communities, with payments often tied to the energy generated. This model has fostered a symbiotic relationship between large-scale energy production and local economic empowerment.

A Decade of Unprecedented Growth and Future Horizons

Since 2009, when Brazil initiated annual auctions for wind energy contracts, the sector has experienced unparalleled growth. By 2017, wind power had become the cheapest energy source in the country, even surpassing the cost-effectiveness of large hydroelectric projects like Belo Monte. This rapid expansion has positioned wind as the second-largest source of large-scale generation in Brazil's electrical matrix, and the fastest-growing over the past 15 years.

The future of Brazilian wind energy extends beyond land-based farms to offshore wind projects. This technology, already mature in countries like Norway and led globally by China, involves floating or seabed-fixed turbines. Last year, the Brazilian Congress approved a legal framework for offshore wind, regulated in April by the federal government, paving the way for new contracting auctions. These new turbines are mandated to be at least 22 km from the coast, signaling a significant leap in Brazil's renewable energy ambitions.

Currently, wind power accounts for approximately 16% of Brazil's installed electrical matrix capacity, and can generate over 20% during peak wind seasons, showcasing the nation's rich natural resources.

Echoes of the Past: Hydroelectric Legacy and the Green Shift

Brazil's energy landscape has a complex history. Decades before wind turbines dominated the horizon, regions like Bahia were shaped by massive hydroelectric projects. In the 1970s, the construction of the Sobradinho lake, one of the country's largest reservoirs, submerged entire communities. This traumatic past, marked by the loss of homes and livelihoods, underscores the social costs of previous energy endeavors.

The energy rationing crisis in the early 2000s spurred further investment in large hydroelectric plants, particularly in the Amazon, leading to controversial projects like Belo Monte. Scientists acknowledge the difficulty in predicting river behavior, especially with rivers like the Xingu, which experience significant flow reductions during dry seasons, raising concerns about the long-term efficiency and viability of such large-scale hydroelectric developments.

Regional Investment and the Challenge of Curtailment

But it's not only in the northeast of Brazil that things are happening in the wind energy sector, the commitment to renewable energy is evident across the country. In Rio Grande do Sul, in the south of the country, the state government recently met with DGE Soluções Renováveis and Casa dos Ventos to discuss the Torquato Severo wind project in Dom Pedrito. This project, with an installed capacity of 700 MW and an initial investment exceeding R$3.9 billion, is set to begin construction in late 2027 and become operational in 2029. It is projected to create 3,000 direct and indirect jobs and prevent 1.2 million tons of CO₂ emissions annually, solidifying Rio Grande do Sul's role as a renewable energy hub.

However, the rapid expansion of renewables has not been without its challenges. A significant issue is curtailment, where the National System Operator (ONS) limits energy generation due to saturated transmission lines. In the Northeast, wind and solar farm expansion has outpaced infrastructure development, leading to situations where generated energy cannot be fully absorbed by the grid. This results in interrupted generation, impacting financial predictability for investors. Between January and April 2026, 660,000 MWh were curtailed from wind and solar plants, a 22% increase from the previous year, with the state of Ceará alone estimated to have lost nearly 3.3 million MWh between October 2021 and September 2025. 

This situation has been described by Elbia Gannoum, president of the Brazilian Wind Energy Association (ABEEólica), as the worst crisis in the Brazilian wind energy industry, categorizing it into a “macro crisis” (economic downturn leading to decreased demand) and a “micro crisis” (curtailment due to infrastructure limitations).

Navigating Challenges and Charting a Sustainable Future

Despite these challenges, the renewable energy sector in Brazil is showing signs of recovery. Elbia Gannoum of ABEEólica anticipates a market recovery from 2027, with energy curtailment expected to decrease from 2028. This optimism is fueled by increasing corporate demand for decarbonization and the influx of energy-intensive data centers. New job opportunities are also emerging, with Chinese companies like Goldwind establishing manufacturing plants in Brazil, particularly in the Northeast.

Further supporting this recovery is Law 15.269/2025, sanctioned in November 2025, which modernizes the regulatory framework for the electricity sector, promotes tariff moderation, and incentivizes battery energy storage systems. A battery auction is also expected this year, which will help balance the national system and mitigate curtailment losses.

While the path to a fully optimized renewable energy system is complex, involving transmission expansion, improved pricing mechanisms, and regulatory adjustments, Brazil is firmly committed to its green energy transition. The energy surplus, once a problem, is now seen as a competitive asset to attract new industrial and technological investments, particularly in segments like data centers and electro-intensive industries, fostering a "green neo-industrialization" across the nation.

Why Brazil’s Wind Power Is Now Cheaper Than Hydroelectric Energy

Brazil is rapidly emerging as a global leader in renewable energy, with wind power generation standing out as one of the cheapest and cleane...