Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), a liquid alternative to conventional fossil-based jet kerosene, is a renewable fuel derived from non-petroleum feedstocks. Developed as a critical component in the global aviation industry's effort to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, SAF is chemically identical to conventional jet fuel — a characteristic known as "drop-in" capability — meaning it can be used in existing aircraft engines and airport infrastructure without modification. While SAF currently accounts for less than 1 percent of global aviation fuel consumption, it is widely regarded as the most viable near-term solution for decarbonizing the aviation sector, which is responsible for approximately 2 to 3 percent of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Production and Pathways

The production of SAF involves converting renewable biomass or waste materials into hydrocarbons suitable for aviation. Unlike conventional jet fuel, which is refined from crude oil, SAF utilizes a diverse range of feedstocks, including used cooking oils, agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, and energy crops such as sugarcane or camelina. Several technical pathways have been certified for SAF production:

• Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA): The most mature and widely used method, HEFA converts vegetable oils and waste fats into fuel through a process of deoxygenation and hydrocracking.
• Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ): This pathway involves the fermentation of sugars or starches into alcohols (such as ethanol or isobutanol), which are then dehydrated and oligomerized into synthetic paraffinic kerosene.
• Fischer-Tropsch (FT): This process gasifies biomass or municipal waste into a synthesis gas (syngas), which is then catalytically converted into liquid hydrocarbons.
• Power-to-Liquid (PtL): Also known as e-fuels, this advanced pathway uses renewable electricity to synthesize fuel from captured CO2 and hydrogen produced via electrolysis of water.

In many instances, SAF is produced through "co-processing," where renewable feedstocks are integrated directly into existing petroleum refineries alongside mineral crude oil. This approach leverages existing industrial infrastructure to lower initial capital expenditures.

Competitive Advantage

The primary competitive advantage of SAF lies in its seamless integration into the existing aviation ecosystem. Because it is a "drop-in" fuel, it avoids the massive costs associated with redesigning aircraft or rebuilding refueling networks. Furthermore, SAF provides a degree of energy security by diversifying fuel sources and reducing dependence on volatile global oil markets. For nations with robust agricultural sectors, such as Brazil and the United States, SAF production offers significant economic opportunities, creating new value chains in the bioenergy and chemical industries.

Ecological Impact

The ecological benefit of SAF is primarily realized through its lifecycle carbon footprint. While burning SAF in an engine still releases CO2, the carbon emitted was previously absorbed from the atmosphere by the biomass during its growth, creating a closed-loop cycle. In contrast, conventional jet fuel introduces "new" carbon into the atmosphere from underground reserves.

Current SAF production can reduce lifecycle CO2 emissions by up to 80 or 87 percent compared to conventional kerosene. Additionally, SAF contains significantly lower levels of sulfur and aromatics, which reduces the emission of particulate matter and the formation of contrails — the white streaks behind aircraft that contribute to non-CO2 radiative forcing and global warming. However, the overall ecological benefit depends heavily on the sustainability of the feedstock; for instance, feedstocks that compete with food crops or lead to deforestation (indirect land-use change) may diminish the fuel's environmental credentials.

Applications and Market Mechanisms

SAF is primarily applied in commercial and military aviation, where it is typically blended with conventional jet fuel (currently up to a 50 percent limit for most certified pathways). Beyond its physical use, the industry has developed innovative market mechanisms to accelerate adoption:

• Book & Claim: This system allows an airline or corporate customer to purchase the environmental attributes of SAF produced in one location, even if the physical fuel is consumed elsewhere. This decoupling of the environmental credit from the physical product overcomes logistical barriers and reduces the emissions associated with transporting heavy fuel over long distances.
• Regulatory Compliance: SAF is increasingly used to meet international mandates, such as the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) established by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

As production scales and technological advancements reduce the current price premium — which ranges from three to five times the cost of conventional fuel — SAF is expected to become the standard propellant for the next generation of sustainable air travel.

Brazil’s Biogas and Biomethane Market Accelerates with New Power Plants, Billion-Real Investments and SAF Projects

From Landfill to Low-Carbon Jet Fuel: How Brazil's Biomethane Policy is Redefining the Circular Economy and Global Climate Fight

Brazil is rapidly emerging as a global laboratory for the circular economy and a key player in the fight against climate change, driven by an accelerating market for biogas and biomethane. This energy revolution is not merely a matter of market growth; it is a systemic policy shift that transforms waste management into a high-value, low-carbon energy source, positioning the nation at the forefront of responsible fuel production and decarbonization efforts.

The expansion is marked by significant private investment, new power generation capacity, and pioneering projects in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), reinforcing Brazil’s commitment to a cleaner energy matrix and its global climate pledges.

The Policy Pivot: Biomethane as a Decarbonization Bridge

While Brazil already boasts one of the world's cleanest energy matrices, largely thanks to hydro, wind, and solar power, the challenge of decarbonizing transport and industry remains. Biomethane, a renewable natural gas derived from organic waste, is increasingly viewed as the essential "bridge fuel" for this transition — Brazil's light-duty vehicle fleet, predominantly composed of flex-fuel vehicles (approx. 85%), utilizes ethanol in two main ways: as a mandatory blend in gasoline (E30, with 27-30% ethanol content) and as pure hydrous ethanol, chosen by the driver at the pump. 

Added to all of this, the market is responding with massive scale-up. Gás Verde, a major player, is strategically converting its biogas power plants into biomethane production units. This pivot is ambitious, targeting a quadrupling of output from 160,000 cubic meters per day (m³/d) to 650,000 m³/d over the next three years. This shift reflects a broader trend where biomethane is replacing fossil natural gas in critical sectors, from heavy transport to industrial heat.

This growth is underpinned by robust policy and investment signals. According to the Brazilian Association of Waste and Environment (Abrema), biomethane production is projected to double by the end of 2026, with new plants scheduled through 2029 representing approximately BRL 8.5 billion in committed investments.

Policy Innovation: Recognizing "Bioenergy Recycling"

A critical policy debate is crystallizing the role of biomethane within the national climate strategy. Pedro Maranhão, president of Abrema, highlights the need to formally recognize biomethane production as a form of recycling. This policy recognition is not semantic; it is a powerful mechanism for strengthening Brazil’s waste management strategy and enhancing its circular economy metrics.

Abrema’s concept of "bioenergy recycling" incorporates waste-to-energy processes into official recycling statistics. This has already yielded dramatic results: after including informal waste pickers in national statistics, the recycling rate jumped from 3% to 8%. With the inclusion of energy and fuel generation from waste, the rate has now surpassed 20%. This demonstrates the profound impact of policy-driven resource valorization.

Furthermore, COP30 commitments have spurred concrete action, with Abrema facilitating agreements between municipalities and private companies to expand biomethane-powered fleets and scale up infrastructure investments. The message is clear: the diagnostic phase is over; the time for implementation is now.

SAF Breakthrough: The Circular Economy Takes Flight

The global aviation sector, a hard-to-abate industry, is also looking to Brazil for a sustainable solution. The country’s race to produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has gained a significant contender in Geo bio gas&carbon, which is pioneering a closed-loop system using agricultural residues, specifically vinasse and filter cake from sugarcane, rather than vegetable oils.

This approach is designed to produce a highly competitive SAF with one of the lowest carbon footprints globally. Developed in partnership with Germany’s GIZ, the project involves integrating a new SAF plant with an existing biogas unit in São Paulo. The process is inherently circular: residues are converted into biogas, which is then used to produce SAF. Crucially, the CO₂ utilized in the process is biogenic, ensuring a significantly reduced lifecycle emission profile.

The project, backed by an estimated €7.8 million investment and included in Brazil’s Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), is starting as an industrial-scale pilot with a capacity of 100,000 to 150,000 liters per year.

Global Policy Acceptance: The Corsia Advantage

For SAF to be viable, it must meet stringent international carbon accounting standards. Geo’s sugarcane residue-based route has recently secured approval from Corsia (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation), the global aviation carbon offsetting scheme.

This certification is a major policy victory, placing the fuel in Corsia’s lowest carbon intensity bracket. As Geo’s Technology Director, Allyson de Oliveira, noted, this ensures maximum economic benefits and global market acceptance, potentially making it the most competitive SAF in the world.

Market Consolidation and Public Support

The momentum is further amplified by market consolidation and public sector support. The strategic, cashless share swap between Orizon Waste Valorization and Vital has created Brazil’s largest waste management company, increasing the waste under management to 14.2 million tons per year, nearly 40% of all waste generated in the country. This consolidation significantly boosts the capacity for large-scale investment in biogas, biomethane, and carbon credit projects.

Simultaneously, the GEF Biogas Brazil Project, a collaboration between the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), UNIDO, and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), has provided crucial foundational support. Mobilizing over US$ 270 million in funding and co-financing, the project has trained thousands of professionals and helped shape the public policies that now govern the sector.

As officials highlighted at the project’s closing workshop, biogas is a mature, scalable, and strategic solution for Brazil’s decarbonization goals. Looking ahead, the potential is vast: Paraná’s energy plan suggests that biomethane and biogas could supply up to 38% of the state’s energy matrix by 2050 under favorable conditions, underscoring the profound, long-term impact of today’s policy and investment decisions on the future of responsible energy production.

The Global Biofuel Shift: How Brazil’s Ethanol Strategy Navigates the China-US Rivalry

The global energy landscape is undergoing a structural transformation, and at the heart of this shift lies Brazil. As the world’s leading producer of sugarcane ethanol and a rapidly growing player in corn-based biofuels, Brazil finds itself in a strategic sweet spot between two superpowers: China and the United States. While the U.S. has long been a traditional partner, China’s recent pivot toward Brazilian ethanol as a cornerstone of its green transition is redefining trade dynamics and sending ripples through global commodity markets.

China’s interest in Brazilian ethanol is driven by a pragmatic necessity to meet ambitious carbon reduction targets. With a goal to integrate sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) into its massive aviation sector, which consumes over 80 million tons of fuel annually, Beijing has identified Brazil’s ethanol as a superior alternative to its current reliance on recycled cooking oil. This move is not just about environmental goals; it is a strategic play for self-sufficiency and unity among Global South nations, especially as trade tensions with the U.S. escalate over tariffs and protectionist policies.

The rise of corn ethanol in Brazil is a game-changer that brings both opportunities and complex market challenges. Historically, Brazil’s ethanol production was dominated by sugarcane, but corn-based production is projected to reach nearly 10 billion liters in the current cycle, with capacity potentially doubling by the early 2030s. This expansion is creating a "structural shift" in the domestic market, as corn ethanol begins to compete directly with sugarcane for market share. This competition is likely to depress ethanol prices at the pump, benefiting consumers but squeezing the profit margins of traditional sugarcane mills.

Corn Ethanol Expansion Strengthens Brazil’s Livestock Industry Through DDG Supply

This rapid growth in the 100% corn-based ethanol sector has had a significant and positive impact on Brazil’s livestock industry, particularly in Mato Grosso, home to the country’s largest beef cattle herd. Cattle ranchers in the state view this expansion favorably, mainly due to the increased availability of dried distillers grains (DDG).

DDG is a valuable co-product of ethanol production, obtained from the fermentation of corn starch. With a low moisture content of approximately 10% to 12%, it is easy to store and has become a key component of animal nutrition. Modern livestock farming is built on four main pillars, genetics, nutrition, management, and animal health, with nutrition playing a central role in economic efficiency and profitability.

DDG is especially valued for its crude protein content, which typically ranges from 25% to 32%. This makes it a competitive substitute for soybean meal, which generally contains around 43% crude protein, offering a more cost-effective option and helping to reduce feed costs for producers. The use of DDG in cattle nutrition is well established in the United States, and as Brazil’s corn ethanol industry expands, the product is increasingly reaching international markets.

In 2025 alone, ethanol producers in Mato Grosso exported approximately 73,000 metric tons of DDG, generating revenues of $22.4 million, according to a survey by the Federation of Industries of Mato Grosso (FIEMT).

Beyond the fuel pumps

The repercussions of this corn ethanol boom also extend to the global food and sugar markets. As more corn is diverted to ethanol production, the competition between domestic consumption and exports is intensifying. This trend, coupled with falling corn stocks in China and a potential resumption of large-scale Chinese imports, could drive corn prices significantly higher, echoing the peaks seen in previous harvest cycles. Furthermore, as Brazilian mills face increased competition from corn ethanol, they may pivot back toward sugar production, potentially flooding the global sugar market and impacting international prices at a time when they are already under pressure.

The geopolitical implications are equally significant. The strengthening Brazil-China relationship, characterized by high-level diplomatic engagements and discussions on financing through the BRICS framework, signals a move toward greater economic integration that bypasses traditional Western-centric financial structures. For Brazil, this means balancing its "best moment" in relations with China, its largest trading partner for soy, iron ore, and meat, with the volatile trade environment shaped by U.S. policy.

Ultimately, Brazil’s role in the global energy transition is no longer just about being a supplier of raw materials. It is about navigating a complex web of industrial competition, food security, and superpower rivalry. As the world watches the development of sustainable aviation (SAF) and maritime fuels, Brazil’s ability to manage the delicate balance between corn and sugarcane, and between Beijing and Washington, will determine its standing as a sovereign leader in the new green economy.

Petrobras's (PETR3; PETR4) Strategic Shift: Brazil's Oil Giant Driving Energy Transition and Market Records

As Brazil’s stock market reaches a historic milestone, surpassing the 170,000-point mark on the Ibovespa, driven by a strong wave of foreign investment, Petrobras is standing at the center of this momentum. Operating at near-full capacity, the state-controlled oil giant has become a key pillar supporting investor confidence and market optimism.

Petrobras is not only benefiting from the current rally but actively shaping it through efficiency gains, record production levels, and a clear strategic shift toward cleaner energy.

Petrobras Refining at Near-Full Capacity Boosts Investor Confidence

The Ibovespa’s move above 170,000 points this Wednesday (21) was fueled by the strong performance of large-cap stocks, with Petrobras playing a central role. When Brazil’s main index climbs to record highs, it reflects confidence in both corporate earnings and the broader economy, and Petrobras’ operational strength is a major part of that equation.

Between 2023 and 2025, Petrobras refineries operated with an average Total Utilization Factor (TUF) of 92%, up from 88% in 2022. Over the same period, the company increased average oil product output by 3% and expanded S-10 diesel production capacity by more than 20%, adding 138 thousand barrels per day (kbpd).

These numbers clearly signal improvements in operational efficiency, asset optimization, and sustained investment in refinery modernization. The result has been a more resilient supply of high-quality fuels with a lower environmental impact.

S-10 Diesel Expansion Cuts Imports and Improves Air Quality

The expansion of S-10 diesel, Brazil’s lowest-sulfur diesel, was made possible through projects at the Reduc, Replan, Revap, and Rnest refineries. By boosting domestic output, Petrobras has reduced the country’s dependence on imports while also contributing to cleaner air, given the fuel’s lower sulfur content.

William França, Petrobras’ Executive Director of Industrial Processes, summarized the strategy clearly, and I agree with his assessment:

“The projects implemented in recent years have steadily increased the capacity and operational flexibility of our refining system. The expansions at our refinery units are the result of efficiency gains, process modernization, and applied engineering, always with a focus on safety and operational reliability.”

Efficiency gains have translated directly into new records. From 2023 to 2025, average diesel production rose 3.1%, while gasoline output jumped 9.3%, reaching historical averages of 419 thousand barrels per day of gasoline and 452 thousand barrels per day of S-10 diesel.

Petrobras Biorefining Strategy Strengthens Brazil’s Energy Transition

One of the most compelling elements of Petrobras’ long-term strategy is its advance in biorefining. The company’s refineries are already adapted to produce renewable diesel (Diesel R), with current capacity of around 74 thousand cubic meters per month. Petrobras already markets R5 diesel, widely used in public transportation fleets.

Looking ahead, the roadmap for sustainable fuels is becoming clearer:

• Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): Petrobras refineries have been adapted through co-processing routes, allowing airlines operating in Brazil to begin using SAF from 2027, in line with the Future Fuel Law and the mandatory phase of Corsia, the ICAO emissions-reduction program.

• Dedicated Renewable Fuel Plants: The company is running a bidding process to build its first plant dedicated to 100% renewable fuels at the Presidente Bernardes Refinery (RPBC), with capacity of 15 kbpd.

• Pioneering Renewable Operations: By the end of the first quarter, Petrobras will begin operating at Refinaria Riograndense (RPR), the first refinery in Brazil to run entirely on renewable feedstock.

Offshore Investments: Petrobras Drives Decarbonization in the Naval Industry

Even as Petrobras accelerates its refining and biorefining transformation, its core oil and gas operations continue to drive major investments across Brazil’s industrial chain, especially in the naval sector.

Recently, Brazil’s development bank, BNDES, approved R$ 1.98 billion in financing for Bram Offshore Transportes Marítimos to build six hybrid offshore support vessels (PSV 5000 class). These vessels will operate under 12-year charter contracts with Petrobras, transporting supplies between offshore platforms and onshore bases.

The project is expected to generate 620 direct jobs during construction and features hybrid diesel-electric propulsion, battery banks, and shore power connection. From my perspective, this is a clear example of how Petrobras’ long-term operational demand is accelerating the adoption of cleaner, more efficient technologies throughout its supply chain.

How Petrobras Is Shaping Financial Markets While Driving Brazil’s Energy Transition

Taken together, these developments reinforce Petrobras’ dual role in Brazil today. On one hand, the company is delivering strong operational results with near-full refinery utilization, record fuel production, and reduced import dependence. All of this helps sustain the historic rally in the Brazilian stock market. At the same time, the company is steadily advancing toward a more diversified, cleaner, and more sustainable energy matrix. 

From refining efficiency to biorefining leadership and green investments in offshore logistics, Petrobras is not merely adapting to the energy transition, but actively shaping it, while helping anchoring investor confidence in Brazil’s economy.

Brazil’s Energy Plan: Biofuels Supply to Surge by 2035

Brazil expects significant growth in biofuel production over the next decade, which will occur because of regulatory requirements and technological advancements and increasing demand from both local and international markets. The Brazilian government issued its 2035 Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2035) through the Energy Research Company (EPE), which shows that biofuel production will increase because of three driving forces: regulatory requirements and technological advancements and increasing local and international market demand.

The report outlines projections for ethanol, biodiesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable diesel, biogas, biomethane and sugarcane-based bioelectricity through 2035, positioning biofuels as a central pillar of Brazil’s low-carbon transition strategy.

Ethanol Output to Reach 50.5 Billion Liters

The total ethanol supply is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.9% from 2025 until 2035, which will lead to a total supply of 50.5 billion liters at the end of that time period.

Sugarcane ethanol will remain the main fuel source While corn ethanol is projected to produce more than 30% of total fuel production by 2035. Second-generation ethanol (E2G) production is forecast to reach 1 billion liters annually.

Ethanol demand within the United States will grow at 2.9% annual growth rate because of the following factors:

• Greater competitiveness of hydrous ethanol versus gasoline
• RenovaBio decarbonization credits (CBIOs)
• Increased flex-fuel vehicle consumption

The market share of hydrous ethanol in flex-fuel vehicles will increase to 52% by 2035, which represents a growth from 39% that was recorded in 2025.

Brazil will boost its net ethanol exports from 1.2 billion liters in 2025 to 1.84 billion liters in 2035, which will happen because of decarbonization policies established by the United States and European Union and Asian countries.

The "Fuel of the Future" law permits gasoline ethanol blending to occur between 22% and 35% while the law includes scenarios that assess the possibility of increasing the blends to E30 and E35.

Biodiesel Mandates Drive 40% Demand Growth

The biodiesel market will require 13.9 billion liters of fuel by 2035, which includes maritime shipping, and this figure represents a 40% increase compared to 2025 numbers. 

Brazil currently requires a 15% biodiesel blend in diesel fuel (B15), while the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) has the authority to increase blending requirements up to 25% through existing legislation. 

The installed production capacity will reach 16.2 billion liters by 2035, which exceeds mandatory requirements and creates possibilities for freight and agriculture and shipping to use extra volume. 

Soybean oil will continue to serve as the main feedstock, while efforts to diversify feedstock sources will begin  through the development of new oilseeds and support of family farming through Brazil's Social Biofuel Seal (SBS) program.

Biodiesel Mandates Drive 40% Demand Growth

Biodiesel demand is projected to reach 13.9 billion liters by 2035 when including its use in maritime transport which represents a 40% increase from 2025 levels.

Brazil requires a 15% biodiesel blend for diesel fuel which is known as B15 but its legislation permits the National Energy Policy Council to increase blending requirements up to 25%.

The installed production capacity is expected to achieve 16.2 billion liters by 2035 which creates excess supply beyond mandatory requirements and enables potential growth for voluntary usage throughout freight operations and agricultural activities and maritime shipping.

Soybean oil will continue to serve as the main feedstock while efforts to diversify feedstock sources will proceed through the introduction of additional oilseeds and the development of family farming initiatives under Brazil's Social Biofuel Seal program.

Biomethane Emerges as Major Decarbonization Vector

Biomethane is identified as one of the fastest-growing segments in Brazil’s bioenergy matrix.

The report estimates that biomethane production from sugarcane residues alone could reach 3.3 billion cubic meters annually by 2035, covering up to 30% of diesel consumption in Brazil’s agricultural sector.

When broader agricultural, livestock and urban waste residues are included, technical potential exceeds 170 billion cubic meters annually. A more conservative estimate suggests 35 billion cubic meters could be viable by 2035 — enough to replace roughly 50% of Brazil’s fossil diesel consumption.

Government incentives, including tax exemptions under REIDI and CBIO generation under RenovaBio, are expected to improve project economics.

Bioelectricity and Advanced Fuels

Installed sugarcane biomass power capacity reached 12.7 GW in mid-2025, with further export potential to the national grid.

The plan also highlights expansion prospects for:

• Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

• Renewable diesel (including co-processing routes)

• Carbon capture and storage (Bio-CCS)

• Low-carbon hydrogen

Brazil’s new “Fuel of the Future” law mandates up to 3% renewable diesel blending, with voluntary higher participation allowed upon regulatory notification.

Strategic Role in Energy Transition

EPE states that biofuels are critical to Brazil’s strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, enhancing energy security and maintaining leadership in global renewable energy markets.

The country already supplies approximately 50% of internationally traded sugar and remains one of the world’s largest ethanol producers.

Investment in bio-refineries, feedstock diversification and integration with carbon markets are expected to define the next phase of Brazil’s bioenergy expansion.

Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) and Brazil’s Path to Renewable Energy and Net Zero by 2050

During an online session parallel to the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Petrobras, the state oil company of Brazil, highlighted its just energy transition strategy. The discussion aimed to present challenges and opportunities for Brazil in the global competition toward a low-carbon future and featured Viviana Coelho, Executive Manager of Decarbonization, and Renan Pinheiro Silvério, the Chief Economist of the company.

This week, Petrobras has publicly presented its practicing view of a balanced energy future. Over the G20 week in Rio de Janeiro, company leaders and climate experts emphasized that a strong and fair energy transition is necessary to make Brazil's climate commitments real and also to shield the economy from shocks in a changing global energy market. Recent studies by economists Carlos Eduardo Young and Helder Queiroz at UFRJ in partnership with the Energy Working Group of Observatório do Clima propose urgent avenues for transitioning Petrobras from an oil and gas company into a diversified energy powerhouse.

According to the two utmost findings, namely "Key Issues and Alternatives for Decarbonizing Petrobras’ Investment Portfolio" and “The Petrobras We Need,” Petrobras in its present avatar are against Brazil's climate goals: 

As per the 2025‐2029 business plan, Petrobras was to invest US$ 111 billion, with only about US$ 9.1 billion being dedicated toward the low‐carbon energy sectors. 

However, the present Brazilian plan is at odds with the National Determined Contribution (NDC) and the National Mitigation Strategy ("Plano Clima") for deeper reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and recognition of their neutrality by the year 2050. 

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What Is the Energy Transition?

Viviana explained that the energy transition is the global effort to shift toward a low-carbon economy, drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO₂ and methane. Energy use is responsible for nearly 70% of global emissions.

Brazil, however, stands out as a positive example:

• Over 90% of the country’s electricity already comes from clean sources.
  
  

• Nearly 50% of its total energy mix is decarbonized, which is far above the global average.
  
  

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Global Challenges

Renan emphasized that this is the first energy transition not driven by pure economic convenience:

• Past transitions, from wood to coal to oil, happened because each new source was more efficient and practical.
  
  

• Today, change is driven by climate commitments, social responsibility, and innovation.
  
  

He also noted that there is no “one-size-fits-all” solution. Each country must adapt according to its resources. In Brazil, biofuels and ethanol are key differentiators.

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Brazil’s Four Strategic Fronts

According to Viviana, Brazil must advance on four main fronts:

1. Energy efficiency – reducing consumption without reducing quality of life (e.g., better public transportation).
   
   

2. Electrification – expanding electricity use in sectors still dominated by fossil fuels.
   
   

3. Molecule substitution – replacing fossil fuels with biofuels or hydrogen.
   
   

4. CO₂ capture – both through industrial solutions (CCS) and natural carbon sinks like forests.
   
   

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Petrobras’ Role in the Transition

Petrobras announced that 10–15% of its investment portfolio is now dedicated to the energy transition. Key initiatives include:

• Expanding wind and solar energy.
  
  

• Investing in biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
  
  

• Developing hydrogen projects.
  
  

• Enhancing carbon capture and storage (CCS).
  
  

• Decarbonizing offshore platforms and improving operational efficiency.
  
  

Viviana highlighted that Brazil’s pre-salt oil fields emit half the global average CO₂ per barrel, and Petrobras has already reduced its emissions by 40% since 2009, equivalent to eliminating all emissions from Brazil’s domestic aviation sector.

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Looking Ahead

While renewable energy will continue to expand, oil and gas will remain crucial in Brazil’s energy matrix until 2050. The challenge for Petrobras and Brazil is not to abandon these fuels outright but to produce them more cleanly and efficiently, while simultaneously scaling up in new energy markets.

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A Just Transition

Petrobras should emphasise the importance of a just energy transition, one that considers the economic and social realities of each country and population. The goal is to prevent vulnerable groups from bearing disproportionate costs as Brazil advances toward decarbonization.

The Recommendations for Petrobras’ Decarbonization Path and the studies propose a set of strategic moves for the Brazilian company to align with global climate trajectories and secure a more resilient business model are:

• Increase investment in research, development and innovation for low‐carbon technologies, especially second and third-generation biofuels and green hydrogen; 

• Expand into distribution, recharging terminals, and consumer‐facing infrastructure, possibly by reacquiring BR Distribuidora or building new terminals; 

• Align Business Plans with Ambitious Climate Policies;

• Petrobras should not only meet Brazil’s NDC and the Paris Agreement’s goals but aim to exceed expectations; 

• Prioritize Low-Carbon Energy Sources;

• Emphasize renewables (wind, solar), SAF (sustainable aviation fuels), and biofuels, especially newer, advanced ones; 

• Reassess Refining Plans and Fossil Expansion;

• Redirect or reduce planned investments in new refineries;

• Freeze fossil fuel extraction expansion into new frontiers (e.g. Foz do Amazonas). Focus production in those already productive areas like the pre-salt region;

• Ensure that the transition is just and inclusive, such that poorer populations are not disproportionately harmed;

• Use fossil fuel revenues (royalties, taxes) more directly toward mitigation, adaptation, and control of deforestation; 

• Continue improving the operational efficiency of oil and gas production so that emissions per barrel are reduced.

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Petrobras Positions Itself for the Future

By combining investments in renewables, biofuels, and innovative technologies with efforts to reduce emissions from oil and gas, Petrobras seeks to position itself as a global leader in sustainable energy. With its unique resources and energy mix, Brazil has the potential to become a reference point in the global energy transition, balancing economic development, energy security, and environmental responsibility.

It is the period of decision for Petrobras. It can continue down the high-carbon path, which is economically and socially risky, or it can lead the transformation into a more diversified and resilient model that takes advantage of Brazil's strengths (renewables, biofuels, biodiversity, technical capacity), with decarbonization and justice at its core. The UFRJ and Observatório do Clima reports give a very clear roadmap. The G20 declarations seem to confirm that Petrobras has some of these thoughts. The next step is to translate these intentions into machinery of large-scale action.